I may be wrong, but counterparty risk is probably the main driving factor at work. It fits the time line better 🤔 The big COVID liquidity bazooka didn't move silver, but the geopolitical tension and the increased possibility of outright confiscation has anyone who believes his/her lying eyes running for silver 🥈😁😉
Just look when these moves REALLY started. Somewhere end 2022... What could have happened in that year that was so shocking? (/s)
Bureaucracy is slow, so give it a year-end internal review in the central banks of the world to make a decision, and the execution is what we're seeing playing out now...
I have been in silver and gold since the 1990s. At 64 y/o, I was never sure I'd see the transition underway now. Time to evaluate everything in terms of grams of gold and ounces of silver. It will be a rough transition for most, if not everyone. As the PMs break up, what will be the extent of what breaks down (derivatives, banks, governments, et al)? Will we still have gas at stations, water from the tap and power on the lines?
There will be a time when that answer is "no". But even in Weimar/Zimbabwe things kept running. Badly. But running.
Until we get honest money, and people are used to it? We'll just get more inflation.
However, I think national currencies will still exist, but countries will trade-settle in PMs (mainly gold). So it will be hidden from most people's eyes.
I’m in a similar situation to you. Hitting myself on the head for 25 years and especially after during the 2011 boom, for not selling. Finally. The time has come:) but all the hype about silver and gold I heard and the early 2000s and then again in 2011 so I’m wary
Don't sell. Ever. Accumulate. Give it to your kids. Use it for your retirement (you'll need it). And if you really need to sell, see that it is for something either urgent or that can get you more stacks in the future (= more return).
thank you. that is probably very good advice consideirng the built in leverage of the miners to the physical price). I think I will do that now. if i might ask- Are you investing more in the juniors or the large companies? Ive seen so many scams in juniors that i am wary- (the old joke: "a godl mine is usually a deep hole with a liar sitting on top of it")
I'm into juniors. But if you want to play it safe? Just SILJ (juniors) or SIL (big players) is perfectly fine to capture most of the moves. And it doesn't require you to believe in one, you immediately capture the aggregate. You won't catch everything that outliers can do, but you'll get a decent chunk.
Just check before you jump! It's your money after all...
"COMEX shipped 7.3 million ounces back to London since January 1st. "
I am not quite sure why COMEX would want to bailout the LBMA. If I were Trump, I would put a stop to it. Let the woke Europeans suffocate in their self-righteousness.
It's not about bailouts - it's about preventing contagion. Once trust cracks in one major precious metals market, the whole paper game unravels. COMEX trades 350-400 paper ounces for every physical ounce. Same fractional reserve nonsense.
If LBMA implodes and people start demanding physical delivery en masse, guess where they look next? The dominos fall east across the Atlantic. COMEX can't afford that scrutiny when they're running the same leverage game. So they ship some physical to keep the music playing a bit longer.
It's self-preservation masquerading as international cooperation.
As always in modern finance, once a major player is down, all others are in trouble.
Finance's first asset is trust.
It can't deliver its silver contracts if everyone asks for it at the same time (nor can it deliver cash if everyone asks for it at the same time, etc, etc)
Finance as it is practiced now is a religion, it requires believers. The congregation is starting to call out the high priests. The emperors may soon find themselves in a room full of mirrors!
A lesson was learned last week. Barrick mining was sold in expectation of a correction due to rebalancing. And got left in the dust. Right now you either own the stuff or you don’t, and if you don’t, the dollars will not buy you the same stuff a week from now. Literally the definition of inflation 😂
Luckily for you, there are MORE than enough miners that are just as good (ok, maybe not as senior) as Barrick. That's why I generally hedge via PUT options [https://no01.substack.com/p/how-to-protect-your-gains]. That way I loose a little money, but not my position.
Would’ve posted this earlier as it might have received a few more looks, but was busy.
Truly like No1’s weekend graphs and posts like this one.
This is looking crazier than the Hunt bros. saga 45+ years ago. Adjusted for inflation, if what happened then transpires in our times, it implies a blowoff AG top of 200+ As this post stated, even Bank of America, using the GSR, is calling for 135-300+! A. BANK. A business whose main product is fiat Fed Res. Notes, mostly as electronic entries in “your” account. Many have used M2 long term growth to estimate what AU & other PMs should be priced. Some years ago I read an article regarding the ratio of the money supply (I forget which M they used) to actual PHYSICAL CASH (paper & base metal coins). IIRC it was ~50:1. It might be closer to 100:1 now as the PTB are tightening the noose as they lead us into a cashless system. There’s little privacy NOW as No1 has presented in recent posts. But it seems they don’t even want us to have the ILLUSION of some privacy & freedom. Why? Arrogance, desperation, some of both?
Aside: a sarcastic historical rant. Thank God we defeated that evil Not See Germany & Imperial Japan in WW2. The main “big 3” winners were the fading Brit Empire, its bastard stepchild the US, plus “Uncle” Joes wonderful slave state, the Soviet Union! The latter doing most of the heavy lifting in the ETO. Then we won the Cold war vs. them dirty Reds. For what F’N reason? To turn the west into the 3d world and become totalitarian here?! Rant over.
This past month I’ve lost well into 5 figures in my tax deferred account clumsily trying to hedge PM positions mostly in my cash/individual account. Ofc in the latter account I’ve made much more, but still very perturbed at myself. I follow a handful of people including No1. I need to revisit No1’s excellent “How to protect your gains” post. I’ve looked into buying far dated PUTS (Leaps) soon after that post and will do so again. Nothing else is working in this crazy PM market. Even Warren Buffett, and other investment legends, have said they’re “terrible timers.” I’m in good company.
Back to PM. Will we see 5,000 AU & 100 AG before the end of THIS month?!
I recently came up with 193 AG basis 5K AU for a GSR ~26. If AU runs higher, much higher?! It beggars the imagination where AG might top. // One aspect of this is the longer the PM – esp. AG – bull rages on, the greater will be the pullback and overall volatility. Let me get back to those LEAPS puts…
Sorry I listened to your rebalancing thesis. It cost me a lot of upside and now I'm chasing a run away market. You certainly missed the potential for a continued upside surge. I'll be very cautious listening to you going forward.
You should always do your own due diligence. I got a nice entry in a few of my miners. They were 10% down. Now 20% up since that time. Overal, slightly positive, but yeah.
Don't listen to randos on the internet... Even not me. Maybe especially not me 😉...
I present how I see things. You do you.
Other than that, I didn't move much since beginning of October. Except putting a few hedges in place (that are severely underwater, but hey, that's what they are for. Protect my gains)
"By the way, it’s now called 'reserve management purchases' because calling it ‘QE5’ is so 2008."
LMAO.
Project Zimbabwe is alive and well.
I may be wrong, but counterparty risk is probably the main driving factor at work. It fits the time line better 🤔 The big COVID liquidity bazooka didn't move silver, but the geopolitical tension and the increased possibility of outright confiscation has anyone who believes his/her lying eyes running for silver 🥈😁😉
Just look when these moves REALLY started. Somewhere end 2022... What could have happened in that year that was so shocking? (/s)
Bureaucracy is slow, so give it a year-end internal review in the central banks of the world to make a decision, and the execution is what we're seeing playing out now...
Yup. The taking of the Russian reserves. 💸💸 Problem 😵💫 If that's true, this train is just barely starting to move 🤔😨🐸
bureaucrats are not known to be the fastest people on Earth.
I have been in silver and gold since the 1990s. At 64 y/o, I was never sure I'd see the transition underway now. Time to evaluate everything in terms of grams of gold and ounces of silver. It will be a rough transition for most, if not everyone. As the PMs break up, what will be the extent of what breaks down (derivatives, banks, governments, et al)? Will we still have gas at stations, water from the tap and power on the lines?
There will be a time when that answer is "no". But even in Weimar/Zimbabwe things kept running. Badly. But running.
Until we get honest money, and people are used to it? We'll just get more inflation.
However, I think national currencies will still exist, but countries will trade-settle in PMs (mainly gold). So it will be hidden from most people's eyes.
I’m in a similar situation to you. Hitting myself on the head for 25 years and especially after during the 2011 boom, for not selling. Finally. The time has come:) but all the hype about silver and gold I heard and the early 2000s and then again in 2011 so I’m wary
Don't sell. Ever. Accumulate. Give it to your kids. Use it for your retirement (you'll need it). And if you really need to sell, see that it is for something either urgent or that can get you more stacks in the future (= more return).
Thanks for the advice. But after 25 years of misery I cannot resist the urge to sell some of it and enjoy the feeling.
You do you. I can only suggest 😉.
I sold also, but I put this in miners for a better return (not much better till now, but any day now.. any day now..)
thank you. that is probably very good advice consideirng the built in leverage of the miners to the physical price). I think I will do that now. if i might ask- Are you investing more in the juniors or the large companies? Ive seen so many scams in juniors that i am wary- (the old joke: "a godl mine is usually a deep hole with a liar sitting on top of it")
I'm into juniors. But if you want to play it safe? Just SILJ (juniors) or SIL (big players) is perfectly fine to capture most of the moves. And it doesn't require you to believe in one, you immediately capture the aggregate. You won't catch everything that outliers can do, but you'll get a decent chunk.
Just check before you jump! It's your money after all...
"COMEX shipped 7.3 million ounces back to London since January 1st. "
I am not quite sure why COMEX would want to bailout the LBMA. If I were Trump, I would put a stop to it. Let the woke Europeans suffocate in their self-righteousness.
It's not about bailouts - it's about preventing contagion. Once trust cracks in one major precious metals market, the whole paper game unravels. COMEX trades 350-400 paper ounces for every physical ounce. Same fractional reserve nonsense.
If LBMA implodes and people start demanding physical delivery en masse, guess where they look next? The dominos fall east across the Atlantic. COMEX can't afford that scrutiny when they're running the same leverage game. So they ship some physical to keep the music playing a bit longer.
It's self-preservation masquerading as international cooperation.
As always in modern finance, once a major player is down, all others are in trouble.
Finance's first asset is trust.
It can't deliver its silver contracts if everyone asks for it at the same time (nor can it deliver cash if everyone asks for it at the same time, etc, etc)
Finance as it is practiced now is a religion, it requires believers. The congregation is starting to call out the high priests. The emperors may soon find themselves in a room full of mirrors!
A lesson was learned last week. Barrick mining was sold in expectation of a correction due to rebalancing. And got left in the dust. Right now you either own the stuff or you don’t, and if you don’t, the dollars will not buy you the same stuff a week from now. Literally the definition of inflation 😂
Luckily for you, there are MORE than enough miners that are just as good (ok, maybe not as senior) as Barrick. That's why I generally hedge via PUT options [https://no01.substack.com/p/how-to-protect-your-gains]. That way I loose a little money, but not my position.
Thanks for the note. Proper (correct) use of derivatives
Would’ve posted this earlier as it might have received a few more looks, but was busy.
Truly like No1’s weekend graphs and posts like this one.
This is looking crazier than the Hunt bros. saga 45+ years ago. Adjusted for inflation, if what happened then transpires in our times, it implies a blowoff AG top of 200+ As this post stated, even Bank of America, using the GSR, is calling for 135-300+! A. BANK. A business whose main product is fiat Fed Res. Notes, mostly as electronic entries in “your” account. Many have used M2 long term growth to estimate what AU & other PMs should be priced. Some years ago I read an article regarding the ratio of the money supply (I forget which M they used) to actual PHYSICAL CASH (paper & base metal coins). IIRC it was ~50:1. It might be closer to 100:1 now as the PTB are tightening the noose as they lead us into a cashless system. There’s little privacy NOW as No1 has presented in recent posts. But it seems they don’t even want us to have the ILLUSION of some privacy & freedom. Why? Arrogance, desperation, some of both?
Aside: a sarcastic historical rant. Thank God we defeated that evil Not See Germany & Imperial Japan in WW2. The main “big 3” winners were the fading Brit Empire, its bastard stepchild the US, plus “Uncle” Joes wonderful slave state, the Soviet Union! The latter doing most of the heavy lifting in the ETO. Then we won the Cold war vs. them dirty Reds. For what F’N reason? To turn the west into the 3d world and become totalitarian here?! Rant over.
This past month I’ve lost well into 5 figures in my tax deferred account clumsily trying to hedge PM positions mostly in my cash/individual account. Ofc in the latter account I’ve made much more, but still very perturbed at myself. I follow a handful of people including No1. I need to revisit No1’s excellent “How to protect your gains” post. I’ve looked into buying far dated PUTS (Leaps) soon after that post and will do so again. Nothing else is working in this crazy PM market. Even Warren Buffett, and other investment legends, have said they’re “terrible timers.” I’m in good company.
Back to PM. Will we see 5,000 AU & 100 AG before the end of THIS month?!
I recently came up with 193 AG basis 5K AU for a GSR ~26. If AU runs higher, much higher?! It beggars the imagination where AG might top. // One aspect of this is the longer the PM – esp. AG – bull rages on, the greater will be the pullback and overall volatility. Let me get back to those LEAPS puts…
Amazing article once again
You have become my No1 ;) follow on Substack in this sector.
Thank you so much for all those very important macro information
*/ˈnoʊ wʌn/* as in nobody/not anyone. Not as in number 1 😉.
But thanks for the encouraging words!
of course, now that you mention it, i realise i should have guest it more that way with your content
"Gold jumped to ~30%."
Chart says [holds envelope to head], "Gold jumped 30% to reach 50."
Which one am I reading wrong?
As I understand this graph is that it's accumulative.
So Euro at +- 15%, Yen & Pound both at around 3-4%-ish, gold at 30%-is, and usd at 40%.
Together that makes: 15+3+3+30+40 = 100%ish
How do you read it? Did I make a mistake somewhere to say it's at 50 (percent I assume)?
Nope. My post-caffeine review says you read it right. Thanks—
Comex losing relevance. then where does relevance go?
For now: the East. (reference: https://no01.substack.com/p/water-always-finds-a-way)
thanks for the link!
Sorry I listened to your rebalancing thesis. It cost me a lot of upside and now I'm chasing a run away market. You certainly missed the potential for a continued upside surge. I'll be very cautious listening to you going forward.
You should always do your own due diligence. I got a nice entry in a few of my miners. They were 10% down. Now 20% up since that time. Overal, slightly positive, but yeah.
Don't listen to randos on the internet... Even not me. Maybe especially not me 😉...
I present how I see things. You do you.
Other than that, I didn't move much since beginning of October. Except putting a few hedges in place (that are severely underwater, but hey, that's what they are for. Protect my gains)
In other words, so much for your recent warnings about silver prices being forced down.
Exact. The strength is unbelievable. Never seen something like that before (and I've seen bitcoin and gamestop...)
Fucking epic.
SILVER, BITCHEZ!
Great stuff, No1
For once, the little guy might not get screwed. Unless it's the greatest head fake in financial history, that says they've lost control of the market.
You know, if the little guy bands together... Great things can happen.
Makes me think of this meme: https://substack.com/profile/73723447-no1/note/c-198647104
👍