Great article, as usual. You dig deep for data and information, which fuel important insights that one doesn’t find elsewhere. Thank you.
You know how there’s the National Debt Clock off of Times Square in NYC? It’s a Wonder of the [Un]Natural World. A “wonder” in the sense that it hasn’t exploded by now from its out of control acceleration, and buried the city underneath its particles.
Well, there should be a companion Precious Metals Markets Looting Clock that tracks the constantly escalating amount of plunder the corrupt, thieving, insider, non-prosecutable “bankers” have looted from the honest participants in the PM markets. In terms of velocity and acceleration, it would be right up there with the National Debt Clock.
Which should be re-named the National Looting Clock. Because the notion of debt implies the willingness, ability and intention of repayment. Absolutely none of that now applies to any federal, state, county or municipal debt. At this point, it is outright theft. Print and Steal. Nice work if you can get it, and the plundering issuers prove again and again that they can.
No1, I don’t trade. I do buy. For me Crimex has been a gauge. A place to watch. As trivial as this sounds, I no longer trust them. Once again, thanks for great logical information and assessments.
As long as the fundamentals ie. Supply/ Demand deficit exists, the price will increase despite the games the exchanges play. It will be bumpy along the way but in the long run fundamentals do matter. To quote Benjamin Graham, in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. I’m still holding my physical and I’ll be buying more on dips.
Mining and recycling will increase, and some industrial applications will shift to copper, but not the most critical ones, so when will the "weighing machine" say sterling silver from grandma should best be sold?
The cure for high prices is high prices, obviously. There will be a market response, but recycling is not easy nor cheap and neither is mining. I’m watching the supply demand curve when it starts to balance that’s the time to sell. The silverinstitute.org is a good site to monitor.
Supply-demand curve is always at a current price, and picking the highest inflation-adjusted current price is the chore going forward.
Something like cutoff of supply while new mass-produced smartphone AI chips need silver would be the kind of confluence that might drive prices to a peak.
Recycling family silver is jammed-up in a bottlem]neck now, maybe processing will catch up to incoming some time this summer.
It is interesting, and cannot be answered before the fact.
Usually it is answered a few months after the fact, right?
;-/
Every once in a while a person might catch a peak, though it is easier to catch a bottom.
I’m not delusional enough to think I can ever catch the peak, which is why I will start selling early as the supply demand shrinks. I believe it was Rothchild that said when ask what was his secret for success in the markets his response was I never buy at the bottom and always sold too early.
Current price is not necessarily indicative of future price. I’ve watched the uranium spot price go from 14 to 90 and the long term market even higher. Same supply/demand dynamics. It’s made me a lot of money. I see the same with silver. Yes the recyclers are bottle necked thanks to the exchanges jacking the margin requirements to the point where they can’t hedge the junk silver they buy against what they can sell it for two months later. The games the exchanges are playing probably don’t instill a lot of confidence even if the margins do come down (temporarily?) I have a 2-3 year timeframe for both and don’t worry about day to day price fluctuations other than buy more if a pullback is big enough. It’s a strategic metal.
Corruption is all that they do. If it doesn't suit TPTB they change the rules mid play. Always was that way, always will be, as long as fiat exists. That's corporate for you, .gov or corporation, always selling a future that may or may not exist. With fiat it most likely won't ever come to pass. Reality does not enter into the picture when all is well with the imaginary fiat world. Lie and then lie about lying, worked seamlessly so far! Reality will eventually worm its way in, brace for contact.
"Now, “halted” is such an interesting word. It implies nothing is happening. A pause. A quiet 90 minutes while the engineers figure out which wire came loose." Why oh why does this cause me to remember the after-midnight-cessation-of-ballot-counting on Nov. 3, 2020? I myself was scheduled to be a vote-counting observer; was notified that afternoon that my services were no longer needed. Spoiler: I am not a member of the Democratic Party.
Hah-hah! Because "Oh look, squirrel!" has real meaning in this household. Husband has a trap set up beneath the bird feeder...and great excitement is felt when a squirrel is seen nosing about that trap.
Trading is a rigged system designed to separate retail from their money. It’s like Casinos, you can win sometimes but in the long run you’ll lose. COMEX is not there to provide a level playing field, it’s there to protect and enrich its members period.
Thanks for sharing. It's important that all these machinations get scrutinized. If enough people are recognizing, the casino loses its power. (see the PS about India disconnecting from COMEX pricing! It's happening in real-time)
I was expecting significant resistance around these levels, as we approach a 50% retracement of the crash, from top to bottom, and the rebound high on 2/4.
Though it could well be that the shorts took that opportunity to engineer a larger pullback than we might have otherwise gotten.
A few serious thoughts. With AG spot/ near futures ~94, the GSR is below the 60 doorway.
I do believe - sooner or later - we'll see GSR around 30. At 6,000 AU --> 200 AG! 🤑
Many are forecasting an eventual GSR of 20, 15, even 10. I've seen a few suggesting that "in their lifetimes" we might see parity 🙃 between AU & AG?! Now I'm as big a silver bug as most here but I think that's la la land thinking. I put a red X (avoid) beside their channels.
When some bullish AG analysts talk about 300-500 AG, they must be thinking ~7,500 AU and a GSR 15-25 or thereabouts.
So where do most here think the GSR will bottom at, and about when?
But a stable $100? That would unlock a LOT of mining. But that would mean that price need to stay there for around 5 years before CEOs would take the risk of starting exploration and a complete new mine...
Well said! In fact, this is almost precisely how I had an article written out in my head. I just never got around to writing it, and you wrote it better than I could anyway.
When I saw the screenshot on X yesterday of the 31k contract volume during the halt, I didn't believe it. (My quotes had already moved to the May contract.) So I looked it up to verify and took my own screenshot.
Truly unbelievable... until you realize that the last person of any regulatory enforcement in Chicago for the CFTC just quit a couple weeks ago... after the other 19 had been fired. So the inmates are simply running the asylum now.
But sure, yesterday's "technical issues" and Thanksgiving night's "cooling issue," both right in the face of contract FND... purely a coincidence. (wink, wink.)
Great article, as usual. You dig deep for data and information, which fuel important insights that one doesn’t find elsewhere. Thank you.
You know how there’s the National Debt Clock off of Times Square in NYC? It’s a Wonder of the [Un]Natural World. A “wonder” in the sense that it hasn’t exploded by now from its out of control acceleration, and buried the city underneath its particles.
Well, there should be a companion Precious Metals Markets Looting Clock that tracks the constantly escalating amount of plunder the corrupt, thieving, insider, non-prosecutable “bankers” have looted from the honest participants in the PM markets. In terms of velocity and acceleration, it would be right up there with the National Debt Clock.
Which should be re-named the National Looting Clock. Because the notion of debt implies the willingness, ability and intention of repayment. Absolutely none of that now applies to any federal, state, county or municipal debt. At this point, it is outright theft. Print and Steal. Nice work if you can get it, and the plundering issuers prove again and again that they can.
"You have to respect the evolution - they got roasted so hard for the cooling excuse that they upgraded to pure corporate haiku."
Nice one!
No1, I don’t trade. I do buy. For me Crimex has been a gauge. A place to watch. As trivial as this sounds, I no longer trust them. Once again, thanks for great logical information and assessments.
where can I get best Shanghai numbers?
Right from the exchange's website: https://www.shfe.com.cn/eng/
Now we return to our previously scheduled infotainment.
In Nancy News, in an act of pure desperation, the US Men's Hockey
Team (USA! USA! USA!) has been deputized to join the Boy Scouts, and Deputy Dawg
in a last ditch attempt to find the mother of an over paid, inane "news" talker.
Luckily for the coastal media Poobahs, there are no wars going
in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran meriting our attention. No JE revelations to report. The Lone Ranger <<https://youtu.be/rZIqg0gBcYM?si=891XcoeXLNan8vd_>>
has been located (+ Silver!) and is on the way to Tucson.
In summarizing events in Tucson: Savannah Guthrie looks biggly better
with a makeup artist in attendance. My takeaway in any event. YMMV.
"Someone got paid to go away. The question is only how much."
And what will be the fortunes of those who did not take the payoff?
When? How?
What will be the $US silver peak price, and when? 2028?
There are so many moving parts.
Yep, I'm trying to figure that one out too...
As long as the fundamentals ie. Supply/ Demand deficit exists, the price will increase despite the games the exchanges play. It will be bumpy along the way but in the long run fundamentals do matter. To quote Benjamin Graham, in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. I’m still holding my physical and I’ll be buying more on dips.
Yes, but when will that market peak?
Mining and recycling will increase, and some industrial applications will shift to copper, but not the most critical ones, so when will the "weighing machine" say sterling silver from grandma should best be sold?
(asking for a friend)
The cure for high prices is high prices, obviously. There will be a market response, but recycling is not easy nor cheap and neither is mining. I’m watching the supply demand curve when it starts to balance that’s the time to sell. The silverinstitute.org is a good site to monitor.
Supply-demand curve is always at a current price, and picking the highest inflation-adjusted current price is the chore going forward.
Something like cutoff of supply while new mass-produced smartphone AI chips need silver would be the kind of confluence that might drive prices to a peak.
Recycling family silver is jammed-up in a bottlem]neck now, maybe processing will catch up to incoming some time this summer.
It is interesting, and cannot be answered before the fact.
Usually it is answered a few months after the fact, right?
;-/
Every once in a while a person might catch a peak, though it is easier to catch a bottom.
I’m not delusional enough to think I can ever catch the peak, which is why I will start selling early as the supply demand shrinks. I believe it was Rothchild that said when ask what was his secret for success in the markets his response was I never buy at the bottom and always sold too early.
Current price is not necessarily indicative of future price. I’ve watched the uranium spot price go from 14 to 90 and the long term market even higher. Same supply/demand dynamics. It’s made me a lot of money. I see the same with silver. Yes the recyclers are bottle necked thanks to the exchanges jacking the margin requirements to the point where they can’t hedge the junk silver they buy against what they can sell it for two months later. The games the exchanges are playing probably don’t instill a lot of confidence even if the margins do come down (temporarily?) I have a 2-3 year timeframe for both and don’t worry about day to day price fluctuations other than buy more if a pullback is big enough. It’s a strategic metal.
Cheers
""The games the exchanges are playing probably don’t instill a lot of confidence""
You're not the only one. See my addendum in this article about India not going to follow the LBMA price anymore.
Yes, not worried either.
Kids have mortgages. Grandmother's family sterling might reduce some of their mortgage debt at the right moment.
True but that would require a lot sterling to make much of a difference to a single family. Maybe credit card debt at 23% interest
It is a complete dinner service, formal serving service and tea service, over 40#, I think.
We already cleared the credit card debt that one son had, and our eldest daughter's med school debt.
We're all conspiracy theorists now ;)
Wondering what excuse TPTB will find for March delivery.
No confidence.
Corruption is all that they do. If it doesn't suit TPTB they change the rules mid play. Always was that way, always will be, as long as fiat exists. That's corporate for you, .gov or corporation, always selling a future that may or may not exist. With fiat it most likely won't ever come to pass. Reality does not enter into the picture when all is well with the imaginary fiat world. Lie and then lie about lying, worked seamlessly so far! Reality will eventually worm its way in, brace for contact.
"Now, “halted” is such an interesting word. It implies nothing is happening. A pause. A quiet 90 minutes while the engineers figure out which wire came loose." Why oh why does this cause me to remember the after-midnight-cessation-of-ballot-counting on Nov. 3, 2020? I myself was scheduled to be a vote-counting observer; was notified that afternoon that my services were no longer needed. Spoiler: I am not a member of the Democratic Party.
And then we complain about voting irregularities in Turkmenistan! Oh, look...squirrel.
Hah-hah! Because "Oh look, squirrel!" has real meaning in this household. Husband has a trap set up beneath the bird feeder...and great excitement is felt when a squirrel is seen nosing about that trap.
🤣🐿
Trading is a rigged system designed to separate retail from their money. It’s like Casinos, you can win sometimes but in the long run you’ll lose. COMEX is not there to provide a level playing field, it’s there to protect and enrich its members period.
Excellent column.
The technical side of CME trading shenanigans was explained so cogently that even a layman like me could understand it.
😂 👍
I posted it to some of the usual suspects on X and had a good response.
Thanks for sharing. It's important that all these machinations get scrutinized. If enough people are recognizing, the casino loses its power. (see the PS about India disconnecting from COMEX pricing! It's happening in real-time)
I was expecting significant resistance around these levels, as we approach a 50% retracement of the crash, from top to bottom, and the rebound high on 2/4.
Though it could well be that the shorts took that opportunity to engineer a larger pullback than we might have otherwise gotten.
Excellent article documenting long term criminal manipulation but unfortunately, no one will ever held accountable.
Mo money, mo money 😄
A few serious thoughts. With AG spot/ near futures ~94, the GSR is below the 60 doorway.
I do believe - sooner or later - we'll see GSR around 30. At 6,000 AU --> 200 AG! 🤑
Many are forecasting an eventual GSR of 20, 15, even 10. I've seen a few suggesting that "in their lifetimes" we might see parity 🙃 between AU & AG?! Now I'm as big a silver bug as most here but I think that's la la land thinking. I put a red X (avoid) beside their channels.
When some bullish AG analysts talk about 300-500 AG, they must be thinking ~7,500 AU and a GSR 15-25 or thereabouts.
So where do most here think the GSR will bottom at, and about when?
Very tricky to say. I think it'll ultimately stabilize around $100. Doesn't mean we won't get to $1000 first...
Also: gold isn't destroyed in the same ways as silver is. Like I wrote in "https://no01.substack.com/p/do-you-care-about-the-environment", you would need around $650 for recycling to make sense. That's about a GSR of 10.
But a stable $100? That would unlock a LOT of mining. But that would mean that price need to stay there for around 5 years before CEOs would take the risk of starting exploration and a complete new mine...
Well said! In fact, this is almost precisely how I had an article written out in my head. I just never got around to writing it, and you wrote it better than I could anyway.
When I saw the screenshot on X yesterday of the 31k contract volume during the halt, I didn't believe it. (My quotes had already moved to the May contract.) So I looked it up to verify and took my own screenshot.
Truly unbelievable... until you realize that the last person of any regulatory enforcement in Chicago for the CFTC just quit a couple weeks ago... after the other 19 had been fired. So the inmates are simply running the asylum now.
But sure, yesterday's "technical issues" and Thanksgiving night's "cooling issue," both right in the face of contract FND... purely a coincidence. (wink, wink.)
I don’t know if you saw this, but last time I was being helpful, and created an official FAQ for the press conference that Monday (https://no01.substack.com/p/mondays-official-faq). Enjoy :)
So silver held steady today - despite all the turmoil - tomorrow will be telling!