Same playbook, different target

Round #3, #4? I've lost count!

Iran started burning on December 28th, right as most of the West was preparing their fireworks for New Year’s Eve. Protests erupted across Tehran when the rial hit 1.42 million against the dollar - a currency collapse that made food prices jump 72% in a single year. Shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar closed their stores. Students poured into streets. What began as economic desperation in the capital spread to 17 provinces within 48 hours.

Netanyahu saw his opening.

On December 29th, he flew to Mar-a-Lago for five hours of meetings with Trump. The official story says he came to “brief” the president about Iran’s ballistic missile program and present options for potential strikes. But Netanyahu doesn’t fly across the Atlantic to brief anyone. He comes to convince. Some would even take it further and say “instruct”. Israeli officials believe Iran can produce 3,000 missiles annually if left unchecked - enough to overwhelm Iron Dome through sheer volume. He likely brought targeting packages. Not some hypothetical scenarios, but actual strike plans for missile production facilities in Kermanshah, assembly plants near Shiraz, storage depots scattered across western Iran.

Iranian protesters were already chanting “Death to the dictator” in reference to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The economic collapse is real - 42% inflation, electricity cuts, broken promises from President Pezeshkian about lifting internet censorship and improving governance. Whether the protests were organic grievances or color revolution doesn’t particularly matter at this stage. The desperation is genuine. But there’s always infrastructure ready to amplify and redirect organic chaos. The MEK opposition held rallies across European capitals within days, showing someone had pre-positioned resources to capitalize on unrest. Genuine economic rage creates opportunity. External actors ensure that opportunity doesn’t go to waste.

Trump left that meeting with a clear message from Netanyahu. The question was whether he’d actually execute. Five days later, Trump settled it - American forces landed in Caracas and extracted Maduro. Venezuela might have been scheduled already, or Trump might have fast-tracked it to clear the operational calendar for Iran. The timing’s suggestive either way.

But I don’t know… Something doesn’t add up here. (And yes, this is tinfoil hat territory again) Israel - eight million people, with an economy smaller than Florida - somehow dictates American Middle East policy? Billions in annual military aid. Diplomatic cover that costs the US international credibility. Reshaping entire regional strategies around Israeli security concerns. What leverage does a country that small actually hold? (/tinfoil hat off)

Venezuela: afterthoughts

January 3rd. American special operations forces landed in Caracas, extracted Maduro and his wife, flew them to New York. Zero American casualties. No Venezuelan anti-aircraft response despite weeks of escalating threats and warnings. The operation was surgical. Too surgical. Something doesn’t track about dozens of highly trained presidential guards, holding defensive positions in facilities they know intimately, getting wiped out without inflicting a single casualty on the attackers. Venezuelan reports say those guards were executed in cold blood. The logical conclusion? Someone from inside disarmed and executed his security detail. Whether that someone was paid, threatened, or ideologically motivated is irrelevant to the outcome.

Trump is emboldened. He’d just demonstrated that regime change operations can be conducted with minimal warning and face zero meaningful consequences. No UN resolution required. No NATO consultation. No congressional authorization. Just presidential orders, military execution, accomplished facts. European leaders issued their predictable statements about international law and sovereignty. Within 72 hours, British oil companies were positioning to return to Venezuelan operations. The international order doesn’t prevent American action.

That’s when the machinery immediately started moving toward Iran in ways that can’t be hidden from people paying attention.

First signal: After Venezuela, the US Air Force shut off tracking systems across virtually its entire fleet - although I couldn’t really figure out if this was global or limited to the Americas. Fact is that the military doesn’t need a justification to become invisible to civilian tracking and commercial aviation systems. Any official justification like “operational security” will do. Practical effect is information control. You can’t report on movements you can’t detect. By the time news networks broadcast footage of strikes, the operation is over and you’re reacting to results instead of preventing action.

Second signal: some heavy airlifting started. Between January 3rd and 4th, at least ten C-17 Globemaster transports landed at RAF Fairford in Britain. The departure points: Fort Campbell, Kentucky and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia. Both host elements of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment. The Night Stalkers. One analyst described what those bases represent: home to the 75th Ranger Regiment and Special Operations Airborne units that conduct the kind of missions most people only see in movies.

The cargo manifests were visible to spotters on the ground. MH-60 Black Hawks and MH-47 Chinooks getting unloaded at Fairford under darkness. Some aircraft continued to Ramstein Air Base in Germany for forward positioning. Others remained in Britain. This might be routine rotation or training deployment, but 12 heavy duty planes?? RAF Fairford served as the primary staging base before June’s strikes on Iran too. Same units. Same equipment profiles. Same deployment pattern.

Third signal: Greece went dark. Sunday morning, January 4th, around 9am local time, Greece’s entire airspace experienced complete communications failure. Not partial disruption. Total blackout across every frequency simultaneously. The Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority issued a statement trying to maintain ambiguity about the cause:

“[..] the cause was massive radio interference affecting nearly all frequencies serving the Athens FIR, originating from the air - an incident it characterized as unprecedented in scale, geographical extent, and duration”.

Originating from the air. The chairman of the Association of Greek Air Traffic Controllers was more direct about what that meant:

“all frequencies were suddenly lost, so there was no way to communicate with aircraft in the sky”.

Airborne jamming… If the US military aircraft would be flying towards Israel, they would be transiting Greek airspace during that window. Civilian traffic grounded means military traffic moves freely without collision risk or civilian observation. The interference lasted several hours while something moved through corridors that normally handle hundreds of commercial flights.

That same day, Israel’s security cabinet approved “Operation Iron Strike”. Five hours of meetings reviewing Netanyahu’s discussions with Trump, outlining priorities for action against Iran, finalizing approvals. No disclosed targets. No announced timeline. Just authorization.

The pieces weren’t just moving. They were locked in position.

Why now? What makes this particularly feasible from an operational perspective? Well, three weeks ago, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel signed a trilateral military cooperation plan for 2026. Joint air and naval exercises throughout the Eastern Mediterranean. Special operations training. Working groups on asymmetric and symmetric threats. Cyprus acquired Israeli Barak MX air defense systems. Greece is purchasing LORA ballistic missiles and advanced C4I technology from Tel Aviv. The integration deepens monthly, creating an interoperable military structure that functions outside NATO command while maintaining American backing.

Greece and Cyprus sit directly between Europe and the Middle East. Souda Bay in Crete provides deep-water port facilities. Alexandroupolis offers deployment access without Turkish complications. The US has invested $42 million in Greek military infrastructure since 2021 - maintenance facilities, helicopter operations, logistics networks. Everything necessary for sustained operations requiring significant range and endurance.

The ministry of Silly Wars

Aircraft could stage from Souda Bay or Cyprus. Strike deep into Iran through Syrian airspace. Return the same way. Remember, during last year’s 12-day war, Israel used Syria as the corridor precisely because ISIS now controls Damascus and Israel systematically destroyed Syrian air defenses. Iraq won’t grant overflight permission. Turkey’s unreliable. The Mediterranean-Cyprus-Syria route provides the lowest-risk approach to Iranian targets. Refueling tankers stay out of range of Iranian AD. Special operations helicopters insert along Iran’s western borders with Greek and Cypriot coordination. No need to navigate Turkish politics or ask Ankara’s permission for anything.

Meanwhile, back in Iran, the protests escalated exactly as needed to justify intervention. By January 3rd, security forces were firing live ammunition. At least 31 people dead. Dozens arrested. Tear gas deployed across Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad. Khamenei appeared on television Saturday with the language autocrats use when they’ve decided violence is the answer:

“We talk to protesters, the officials must talk to them. But there is no benefit to talking to rioters. Rioters must be put in their place”.

Not protesters. Rioters. The distinction provides legal and ideological cover for lethal force without restraint.

Iranian officials told The New York Times their government was operating in “survival mode”. Israeli intelligence leaked claims that Khamenei has an escape plan to Moscow prepared in case security forces defect to protesters. Whether that’s intelligence or psychological warfare doesn’t change its effect on the narrative.

Trump responded with the exact framing you’d expect after Venezuela validated the humanitarian intervention template:

“If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go”.

Internal chaos plus brutal suppression equals American military intervention marketed as humanitarian rescue. The script writes itself at this point. We’ve seen it in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria. Add Venezuela to the list. The formula works because it provides moral justification for actions driven by strategic interests.

But is this real or theater?

June felt like complete kabuki. I documented it extensively - supposed B-2 bombers flying over Iranian territory yet not one Iranian fighter scrambled to intercept. “Bunker buster” strikes leaving three neat holes instead of massive craters. US claiming they destroyed nuclear facilities after Iran had mysteriously moved sensitive equipment weeks earlier. My assessment was submarine-launched Tomahawks rather than actual penetration of Iranian airspace, because Trump wouldn’t risk losing aircraft to Iranian air defenses for a choreographed operation.

That deal worked because everyone needed an exit. Israel was getting hammered daily by Iranian missiles. Iron Dome depleting at an unsustainable cost. Iran didn’t want simultaneous war with both US and Israel. Trump needed a foreign policy win without a prolonged commitment. So they negotiated theater. Iran moved equipment, filled facility entrances with sand, staged impressive fireworks. Everyone claimed victory. War ended. Problem solved.

Six months later, Netanyahu wants round two. But this time he’s not asking for off-ramps. He’s demanding escalation. Israeli doctrine cannot tolerate mutual deterrence with Iran. The June outcome - Iran demonstrating it can still hit Israel effectively - is strategically unacceptable to Netanyahu’s conception of regional dominance. He needs Iran’s missile production capacity destroyed, not degraded. That requires sustained strikes. Real war, not managed spectacle.

Trump’s preferences run opposite. He likes wins, not wars. Theater over commitment. Venezuela validated that approach - overwhelming force, quick extraction, media victory, minimal complications (for now). But Netanyahu might be pushing him toward something beyond his comfort zone. That creates genuine unpredictability. Does Trump give Netanyahu what he wants and risk real escalation? Or does he negotiate another round of theater and hope Netanyahu accepts it?

The Iranian protests complicate every calculation. If Tehran’s government genuinely is in survival mode, they might lack the political capital to negotiate said theater. Desperate governments make desperate moves. They might close Hormuz. Strike harder than pre-arranged. Do something that forces real war instead of managed conflict. Then nobody controls the escalation.

Also consider the international response. Russia backed Maduro verbally, but did nothing operationally when Americans landed in Caracas. Iran represents bigger stakes for Moscow - transport corridors, access for oil, drones for Ukraine - but Russia’s force projection is constrained by Ukrainian commitments. What can they actually do if strikes happen? China’s Venezuela response was similarly muted despite the massive humiliation. Either they knew beforehand or they’re too constrained to act. Either way, Trump can move on Iran without meaningful intervention from either Beijing or Moscow.

The current silence carries tactical weight. No diplomatic outreach from Washington. No UN mediators. No European shuttle diplomacy. Venezuela proved speed beats legitimacy. Act before mechanisms respond. Present accomplished facts, not debatable options. And what better cover than the current Iranian protests? Trump will claim a humanitarian response, Netanyahu will frame it as a defensive necessity. Enough moral ambiguity that by the time anyone organizes opposition, it’s done.

Trump’s public statement after meeting Netanyahu was a carefully calibrated threat:

“There will be consequences. Consequences will be very powerful, maybe more powerful than last time”.

Last time was theater. This time might not be.

I’m watching what happens next in this theater (pun intended). Mainly looking out for more mysterious military movements, more blackouts, and more snippets dropped by Trump. What will happen to Iranian protestors? Succeeding or crushed? Chinese/Russian rhetoric?

Some special operations assets are forward-deployed. Political justification is being fabricated.

Either way, the pieces are in motion.

We’ll probably know soon enough.