Venezuela: afterthoughts

after letting the newscycle run, my update

A Note on the Silver Heist Slop

Before we get into the actual analysis, I need to address the elephant in the room. There’s this AI-generated content farm pumping out videos about “Venezuela’s silver heist” that’s polluting the entire precious metals space right now.

You know the one. The Asian Guy’s channel. Endless videos. Perfect cadence. Zero fact-checking. Claims like that Russia and China flew into Venezuela on three cargo planes and stole 847 tons of silver in a midnight heist. Complete with flight tracking data and everything.

It’s AI slop. And it’s everywhere.

Let me count the ways this falls apart. The AN-124 cargo plane can lift 150 tonnes. Not 1,200 tonnes like the video claims. For reference, a Falcon 9 rocket weighs 550 tonnes total. You’re telling me a cargo plane can lift more than double what an entire rocket weighs? The world’s largest cargo plane - the Antonov An-225 - maxed out at 250 tons. There was ONE of those. It was destroyed in Ukraine in 2022.

847 tons across 3 planes means 282 tons per aircraft. Physically impossible with any existing cargo plane.

Another one: Venezuela produces maybe 2% of global silver. Not 12%. The video claims 847 tons is “15% of Venezuela’s annual production” which would imply Venezuela produces 5,647 tons per year. And also that this represents “12% of global supply”. Global silver production is 25,000-27,000 tons annually. Pick which lie you want to believe because they contradict each other.

And my personal favorite: the narrative simultaneously claims this is “theft”, a “heist”, AND “completely legal under international law”. Pick one. You can’t have it both ways.

No major silver analyst is talking about this. Not one. When real events happen in the PM space, everyone’s all over it within minutes. But on this midnight silver heist? Radio silence.

But despite being complete fabricated garbage, this AI slop is bringing retail attention to silver. Getting people interested in the space. Creating awareness of COMEX’s issues and physical shortages. I like that a lot. And maybe that’s the point.

Maybe it’s a psyop to waste our time debunking nonsense instead of finding real information. Or maybe it’s designed to break the back of western financial markets by driving retail into a squeeze.

I give the bot credit for shining a light on silver. But I’m exhausted from debunking the endless stream of AI-generated conspiracy porn that contradicts basic physics and arithmetic.

So when you read the tinfoil section at the end of this article, understand: I’m giving conspiracy theorists their fun. But the Asian guy’s plane heist? That’s not conspiracy theory. That’s just bad fiction.

---

Now, onto Venezuela and what I think actually transpired.

Maduro’s in a Brooklyn detention center now. Trump’s declaring the US will “run” Venezuela. And I need to update where I stand after watching this unfold.

Because the more I look at this, the more convinced I am we just witnessed theater. Expensive, well-choreographed theater with real consequences, but theater nonetheless.

Let’s start with the obvious. Not a single AA-missile fired. Zero American casualties. The Venezuelan military - supposedly on high alert after weeks and months of threats - just stood down. Maduro and his wife waiting at home when Delta Force arrived. No firefight. No resistance. Just a clean extraction.

Trump compared it to military displays “not seen since World War II”.

Right.

The comparison is insulting to anyone who’s studied or participated in actual military operations. When the Soviets ran a similar decapitation strike in Afghanistan, they took casualties. Real ones. You know when operations are genuinely contested, bullets tend to fly. Consequence: people die, equipment gets damaged… You know: Murphy goes around.

This went perfectly. TOO perfectly. Hollywood-level perfectly.

Helicopters flying over Caracas. A country that allegedly has thousands of Russian MANPADS. Prepared for this exact scenario for years. And not one gets fired?

Either Venezuela’s military capability was pure fiction, this was negotiated beforehand or he got sold. I’m going with Occam’s Razor.

Maduro likely got an offer he couldn’t refuse. Like: come quietly and your family’s protected and tended for.

His vice president Delcy Rodríguez is now acting president. Trump claims she’s cooperating. However, she’s publicly demanding Maduro’s release and condemning American aggression. One of those presidents is acting. We’ll find out which in due time.

And Maria Corina Machado? You know, the Nobel Peace Prize winner that wanted America to liberate her country through force (because nothing screams nobel peace price more than asking for a war). Well, Trump threw her under the bus at his press conference. “Doesn’t have the trust of the people”.

Internet shills will tell you this is all about Venezuela’s oil. “Largest reserves in the world”! They’ll breathlessly explain. “303 billion barrels! More than Saudi Arabia”!

Three quarters of those reserves are extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. API gravity of 8-14°. If you don’t know what that means, think: thick, expensive, difficult-to-process oil that requires specialized refineries most of the world doesn’t have.

This isn’t some light sweet crude you pump and refine anywhere. This is oil that needs complex “coking” refineries. The kind the US Gulf Coast has about 900 kbd of idle capacity for. The kind that demands a $10-15 discount to benchmark prices just to cover processing costs.

So when Trump seized “the world’s largest oil reserves”, what he actually got was: access to very expensive heavy crude that requires billions in infrastructure investment before it generates meaningful revenue.

From an investment perspective? The US might bring 600-900 kbd online within 2026 if everything goes perfectly. But it is a strategic positioning. Which brings me to the real question.

Look, there’s a scenario where this works out for everyone.

If Venezuelan people get genuine windfall benefits - high-paying jobs with US oil companies, sanctions lifted, access to American markets, actual investment in infrastructure instead of just extraction - this could be mutually beneficial. Venezuela gets an economic revival. The US gets stable oil supply. Everyone wins.

It’s possible.

But I’m not holding my breath.

Iraq. Afghanistan. Libya. Syria. The track record of US regime change operations turning into prosperity for the local population is... let’s call it mixed. And that’s being generous.

A Delta Force raid is one thing. Actually governing and developing a country? That’s completely different.

Venezuela isn’t just Caracas. It’s a vast country with armed militias, loyalist factions, and decades of anti-American sentiment baked in. Colombia’s FARC fought for 50+ years. You think Venezuelan resistance will just roll over because Maduro’s gone?

Trump said the quiet part loud: “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies go in and start making money”.

Great. One problem.

Those oil fields aren’t in fortified compounds. They’re scattered across remote areas. The pipelines run through territory that could turn very hostile very quickly. Every engineer needs armed escorts. Every facility becomes a potential target.

Will Venezuelans accept this if they’re genuinely prospering? I know I would. If the jobs are real, the wages are good, and the benefits flow to regular people instead of just a new corrupt elite, resistance will be minimal.

But if it’s just resource extraction with security contractors protecting American companies while Venezuelans stay poor? Pipelines will get sabotaged. Infrastructure will be attacked. “Terrorist attacks” - or as some would call it, resistance to foreign occupation - will become routine.

Those “billions in profit” Trump’s promising? They could easily get spent on security contractors and dealing with an insurgency instead of dividends.

This is the Vietnam playbook if it goes wrong. Initial military victory. Media declares success. Then comes the insurgency. Rising casualties. Troop escalations to “stabilize the situation”. No-go zones. A bleeding wound that never closes.

Right in America’s backyard.

Whether it works out depends entirely on whether this becomes genuine partnership and prosperity for Venezuelans, or just another extraction operation with a thin democratic veneer.

Based on past performance? I’m skeptical. But I’d love to be proven wrong.

Russian oil production costs run around $10-20 per barrel. US shale? $50+. Venezuelan heavy crude should trade at a $10-15 discount to benchmarks.

If, and I say IF, Venezuela floods the market - even at 600-900 kbd - that’s downward pressure on oil prices. Which sounds great until you realize: cheap oil kills US shale production. No more “energy independence”. Bye bye shale.

One message circulating on Russian channels says: “They’ll drop the oil price below the floor and take all the sales. This is checkmate for our economy”.

If crashing oil prices hurts Russia, ok I guess. Except it also hurts Texas. And North Dakota. And every US shale producer who suddenly can’t compete with subsidized Venezuelan crude being processed in US refineries.

Trump just potentially kneecapped his own energy sector to grab Venezuelan reserves. Unless, of course, he plans to keep production restricted and prices elevated. Which defeats the entire “energy abundance” narrative.

The economics don’t work unless this is about something other than flooding markets with cheap oil.

Or maybe it’s simpler?

What if this is just the world being carved up into spheres of influence? The multipolar order everyone talks about, but nobody wants to admit?

The US takes Venezuela. Russia takes Ukraine. China takes Taiwan.

Each power controls its region. Each stays out of the other’s backyard. The “rules-based international order” becomes: whoever has the biggest stick in their neighborhood makes the rules.

China can’t stop the US from taking Venezuela any more than the US can stop Russia from taking Ukraine. Or China from taking Taiwan. That’s the deal.

The UN will condemn it. “International law” will be cited. Sanctions will be threatened. And absolutely nothing will change because everyone’s just waiting for their piece.

That’s maybe why Beijing and Moscow’s responses were so muted?

Because they knew? Not the details, maybe. Not the exact timing. But they knew the general play and they’re fine with it because they get their turn too. That’s maybe why China’s envoy was there to convince Maduro to take that deal?

China’s response? They’re “deeply shocked”. They demand Maduro’s release. They called for a UN Security Council meeting.

That’s it. No asymmetric retaliation (yet - but it’s early). No sanctions on American companies in China. No moves against US interests elsewhere. Just... strongly worded condemnations.

If this operation genuinely blindsided China while their special envoy was on the ground, that’s a massive humiliation. The kind that demands a response. The kind that gets people demoted or disappeared in Beijing’s system.

Instead? Muted outrage and diplomatic theater.

Russia? Same story. “We strongly condemn... bla bla bla” and then … 🦗.

The alternative - that both China and Russia got caught completely flat-footed and are just shrugging it off - doesn’t pass the smell test.

Why can’t China do the same thing?

If the US can fly into Venezuela, bomb military installations, extract a head of state, and face zero meaningful consequences... what’s the precedent?

China claims Taiwan is part of China. Has for decades. Under that logic, Taiwan isn’t even a foreign country - it’s a rogue province. So by the standard the US just set, China should be able to fly into Taipei and grab whoever they want, right? It’s their territory. Their “rogue leader”. Their internal affair.

Hell, by that logic, why can’t China grab Japan’s prime minister? If we’re doing regime change in countries that “threaten our security interests”, China’s got about 15 to 20 million reasons for Japan too.

Except they won’t. Not because of international law - we just watched that become optional. They won’t because the US still claims protection over Taiwan and Japan. And China isn’t ready to call their bluff.

Just imagine, China’s factories running 24/7 churning out military hardware. And the US need to ship drones, missiles, and munitions from factories a thousand miles away? America will get obliterated. Basic logistics. Proximity wins.

If the US can do this to Venezuela, what’s stopping China from their move? Nothing except timing and choosing the right moment.

Power decides which rules apply to whom and when.

Trump got his photo op. His “masterpiece operation”. Proof that American military dominance is back in the Western Hemisphere.

But look at the bigger picture.

Russia takes Ukraine. The West condemns it, sanctions follow, nothing changes. China’s running exercises around Taiwan, preparing for their move. And now the US takes Venezuela with Beijing and Moscow offering token protests.

This isn’t chaos. This is negotiated order.

The multipolar world everyone talks about? It’s not multiple powers cooperating under shared rules. It’s multiple powers each dominating their sphere while staying out of each other’s way.

Monroe Doctrine for the US. Near abroad for Russia. One China for Beijing. Each empire gets its backyard. Each looks the other way when rivals consolidate theirs.

Welcome to the new world order. Same as the old world order, just with the mask off.

The rules-based international order is dead. Long live the spheres-based international order.

Where might makes right, and the only question is: which empire’s sphere do you live in?

---

For the Tinfoil Fans

Alright, you’ve been patient dear tinfoil fans. Here’s what I found that could make your blood flow faster.

In 2000, there were nine countries without a Rothschild-connected central bank: Iran, Iraq, Cuba, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Venezuela, Afghanistan, North Korea.

Iraq? Overthrown 2003. WMD lies. Libya? Overthrown 2011. Humanitarian intervention. Sudan? Regime change 2019. Afghanistan? Occupied for 20 years. Syria? Ongoing proxy war. Venezuela? Just happened.

That leaves Iran, Cuba, and North Korea.

Notice a pattern?

---

There’s more where this comes from 😉.
Let’s talk about the petrodollar.

Iraq under Saddam switched to euros for oil sales in 2000. Overthrown 2003.

Gaddafi in Libya was working on creating a gold-backed African currency to challenge dollar hegemony in the African oil trade. He was overthrown in 2011.

Maduro in Venezuela was selling oil in yuan. Direct challenge to the petrodollar system. One of the largest oil reserves in the world, trading outside the dollar. He was just overthrown.

Iran also sells oil in non-dollar currencies. Currently in an escalating proxy war with US-backed Israel.

Spot the pattern yet?

You can challenge American military power. You can have nuclear weapons. You can be authoritarian. But apparently, you cannot challenge the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency for energy trade without regime change finding its way to your doorstep.

Is this the entire reason? No. These countries had plenty of other factors making them targets. But it’s a hell of a coincidence that every major oil producer who tried to move away from dollar-denominated sales ended up with their government violently removed.

---

Venezuela sits between Peru and Mexico - two of the largest silver-producing countries in the world. Control Venezuela, you control a critical chokepoint in Western Hemisphere silver flows.

Cuba? Nickel. Massive reserves. Critical for batteries, stainless steel, and industrial applications. Control Cuba, you control another strategic mineral chokepoint.

Am I saying the Venezuela operation was about silver? No. The oil and gold alone justifies it from an imperial resource grab perspective. The sphere division theory explains the geopolitical acquiescence.

But is there a secondary strategic mineral play happening here? One that just happens to align with taking down the last few countries outside the Western financial system?

I’ll let you decide.

What I will say is this: when you’re trying to corner strategic resources in a multipolar competition, you don’t just think about oil. You think about silver. Gold. Nickel. Rare earths. Copper. Everything that makes modern civilization tick.

And if you happen to be removing governments that resist Western financial integration while simultaneously gaining control over critical mineral supply chains... well.

That’s just good empire building.

Cuba’s probably next. Watch the nickel angle when it happens.