The ministry of Silly Wars

Starring: Trump, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Satanyahu

I refrained from writing any more articles to let things settle down a bit and get a better overview on things. I don’t work well when hasted.

Iran-Israel take

What I feel with the Iran-Israel war is that it’s all faked, all ready-made for susceptible Western audiences. Ready for consumption in a soundbite of 1 minute on the evening news. It’s getting annoying to be perceived as a moronic baby without any critical thinking by my overlords!

Israel got a relatively successful hit in because their surprise attack. The US played it’s part of “mediator” by hiding their knowledge of an impending attack.

“In a few days we’ll meet to talk more about a new nuclear treaty”.
How did that turn out? [surprise attack that was months in the planning]

“I’ll give them 2 weeks to come back to the negotiation table”.
How did that turn out? [3 days later a ‘surprise’ attack]

Israel flew their planes through Syria, which was mostly dismembered because of the rise of the ISIS-CIA-puppet not willing to upset his masters. Masters in this case slaves to the Zionist cause. Result: AD in Syria: non-existing right now, if they could even figure out how to make it work. It’s a tad different shooting planes from the sky than chopping heads of I guess.
Anyway, no AD, no problems for Israel over Syria.

Now, Israel launches their bombs from just at the border or make very small incursions to launch their bombs.
Air superiority? Pfah! Too scared to fly too close to Iranians AD.

Which doesn’t mean those hits aren’t painful. I’m sure they are. But this highlights another major difference between the approaches of both countries. Israel doesn’t care about civilians. - I hope it’s not the evil option that they try to maximize civilian casualties, but anyone not a Zionist is an üntermensch I guess, so all is possible -. Iran at least pretends it does. (direct) Civilian casualties in Israel was like 20 last I read, and 400 in Iran. I’m not counting for military targets, they’re fair game. It’s war after all!

Anyway, Israel doesn’t dare to approach close enough to have true control over the skies, but they do have a lot of spy networks on the ground. Launching pesky little drones to bomb the shit out of those dirty brown people in the desert (or so the reasoning goes I guess - not my view, I value life, no matter what color/believe you have). This led Iran to the unprecedented step to shut down the internet and mobile networks inside the whole country.
A bit autocratic, but necessary I think if you truly want to root out those networks. Add to that that you now have 90 million people searching for suspicious behavior and I think it’s fair to say that a lot of cells will have been rounded up and summary executed (yeah, Iran doesn’t believe in prison sentences for those kind of offenses).

Then Iran threw a lot of bombs on them. Lots in the beginning, less and less towards the end (June 19 on this graph). I only found this graph back, and Israel went into a ‘capital offense to record/post on missile strikes’ - so a complete information blackout.

But what is obvious is that their AD was severely depleted. Iran didn’t need to throw a lot of stuff at them anymore to inflict the same pain. I’m relatively certain Iran could have done that, but that would have provoked Israel. Remember they’re the only country in the Middle East that have nukes! Better not drive a crazed, wild cat into a corner!

Towards the end of that period, Iran also started to rely more on slower missiles and drones, because they wouldn’t be shot down anyway. And are a lot cheaper. While still having the same psychological effect as having the Zionists run for cover every time.
I also read that Iran produce something like 30 drones a day, so launching 30 would make it a complete break-even operation, to be sustained indefinitely. By Iran. Not by Israel. Israel had to spend (well, we all know the US spends it and gives it for free to their Israelian masters) like 50k at least per missile, where 2 are generally launched per target. So: not cost-efficient for them at all.

Now from Iran’s perspective: they were negotiating in good faith (*erhm* - I don’t really think so, but ‘talk is cheap’, and you can always prepare for war in the meantime). And suddenly, out of the blue, they were attacked. AD disabled, drones swarming airports or assassinating top leaders and scientists, … Gotta have been crazy these first few hours. My best guess is that due to Russian involvement they could their stuff together in 10 to 12 hours and were ready to raise hell. Israel expected it’d take days. Days they could use to bombard Iran at will. Though luck!
They got bombarded daily as a result for nearly 2 weeks.

After a week or so into this conflict, they also bombed the nuclear facilities at Bouchehr. But there are a LOT of Russians there, and Putin said to the Israelis: stop this. NOW. Those media reports died before my very eyes. I doubt Israel wanted to infuriate Russia.

So after this week of sustained bombing by Iran (and counter bombs by Israel). With no end in sight from either side as neither wanted to back down. The Israelis started to panic and cried uncle. Uncle Sam in this case. Crying: “Please save us from our own stupid war we started.”
Trump didn’t really wanted to, but I’m guessing the Zionist lobby is pretty powerful in Washington, so he had to do something. Anything!

And that’s where the whole premise of this Kabuki theatre comes in. Trump contacted Iran and asked: “Can we pretty pretty please bomb those nuclear sites in order to get some heat of my back, and we’ll stop the war.”
So Iran said: Ok, no problem, but no bunkerbusters, and we get to bomb one of your bases. Trump couldn’t refuse. I believe he’s still smart and knows that he doesn’t hold the cards here in this particular part of the world.

Iran got to prepare a few days by moving their most vulnerable machinery away (although I read somewhere that that was already gone many months ago), and they just filled the entrances with loads and loads of sand - likely to not let them collapse because of the bombs.

So we got a made-for-TV deception with the whole world tracking the bombers that flew over the Pacific, whilst the “real” strike package flew east over the Atlantic. It’s really Hollywood-worthy! *touch my hat*

Then there was a lot of fireworks, but I doubt much was hit.

Just look at the holes. Like 3 holes (top right) next to each other. If this was a bunker-buster, you would have seen a giant hole or just about anything. I know they dig like 50m max, but still you would see something more. If it hit something it would have a cave-in, if it didn’t hit anything, the energy would dissipate outwards (ie flying rocks and sand everywhere), still creating a big hole. Not 3 holes neatly next to each other holes.

My best guess: I doubt any planes flew over Iran. Even if there was an agreement to have a token bombardment, I don’t think Trump would want to risk an over-eagerly Iranian pilot/AD to take out one of his priced planes. If they even didn’t dare to approach Yemen with their MPADs (I read somewhere that an F15 had to make drastic maneuvers to escape one of those rockets)… Let alone Iranian AD which is a locally build AD, strongly based on the Russian S400 (simply the best in the world).
One thing I noticed right away was that there were no Iranian fighters in the air. So either they were told to stand down, or (Occam’s razor) there were simply no planes to engage.
Remember that to drop a bunker-buster, you need to fly your plane OVER the target. There is no way to make it “glide” hundreds of kilometers. I mean, simple gravity pulls it to the ground like a .. well .. like a big BIG bomb.

So my best guess: They just shot a load of submarine wads at their targets, lots of fireworks, and “WE WON!! AMERICA IS THA BEST!!”.

What does Iran get out of it? For the US to back off. They don’t want to fight the US as well as Israel. Israel alone is already enough without having to consider an angry tyrant. Not that they can’t do it. I’m pretty certain they can, but you need to think of your populace. Engaging both would mean a big war.

Closing Hormuz is also not really an option because it would hurt China (their ally/friend) by raising oil prices. Beginning diplomatic overtures between Saudi-Arabia and Iran would be destroyed as well. Well, Russia wouldn’t mind because they’d see their revenues like triple or so. The government voted to close it -unanimously. That decision now rests with the Boss (and his security council). Hairpin trigger. I doubt Iran would do that.
And no, it’s entirely feasible. They have the drones to simply do that. Even the threat of closing this waterway would raise oil prices and insurance premia.

What else would Iran get out of it: an offramp from this Israelian induced war? Seems they took that now, even though I don’t understand why. Israel was in the ropes. Why not keep pounding until Israel cries for mercy? “Please please stop beating me, I will never never do it again (in the next few months)!”
Of course doing so would invite the US to attack as well - if the Zionist lobby is as strong as I suspect.
My changing thinking is that Iran is not as strong as I suspect, and they need some room to adjust their strategies. Because this war ain’t over. The hatred of Israel towards any other local power is tangible.

What does Israel get? A breather. They can continue beating Palestinian and Lebanese people indiscriminately. They can rebuild and restock their AD.
Iran showed them they’re not invulnerable, and even though they got good hits in, I think their populace now realize: “don’t touch Iran”. I hope so. But with a crazy Netanyahu at the helm… Who knows what’ll happen!

My overall feeling: this ain’t over yet. Be ready for sequel 4 (1: Ukraine, 2: Yemen, 3: Iran (part 1), 4: Iran (part 2))…

Nuclear material

The pretext for this short-lived war (I don’t think that Israel could have sustained it much longer than a week more) was to destroy the nuclear ambitions of Iran. Well, it’s been 40+ years since Israel said that Iran is a month away from making a nuclear bomb. Lastly Tulsi Gabard also said that it’d take about a month to finalize this. If they didn’t do this during these 40 years, they’re either stupid morons who can’t implement an 80 year old technology (unlikely), or Iran choose willingly to not pursue it.

Why is that so difficult to understand?

They have around 400kg of 60% enriched nuclear material. Supposedly this was all bombed. Allegedly. But somehow they have no idea where it is??

Maybe first make sure before you bomb, right?

Also, they don’t really need a nuclear bomb. Just load the nuclear enriched material in one of their bombs and fire it. That’s called a dirty bomb. Radiation everywhere, just not as much destruction as a real nuclear bomb. A bit easier to clean up though (same procedure as with chemical spills and so). But it’ll make live that much harder to sustain in any place hit.
They don’t need a nuclear bomb. Maybe solely as a deterrent. And I’m still liking my idea of an EMP attack as a very powerful deterrent.

US diplomacy is dead

Who’s going to believe America now?
- After Ghaddafi relinquishing his weapons only to found him being bombed
- After the fake “WMD” of Hussein in order to foment support for the war
- After 20 years Afghanistan war in order to replace the Taliban with the Taliban
- After the “Spiderweb” operation in the Ukrain/Russia war
- After stealing the most productive (oil/farm) fields in Syria for ever
- After closing their eyes to ANY violation of Israel:
* nuclear weapons, not part of any act
* indiscriminate bombing of Gaza
* lawless attacking of other countries in the name of “self-defense”
* countless violations of treaties
* countless violations in West Bank by settlers with support of the army
- After lying under the pretext of negotiations to lull their counterparties
- After …

These are the ones from the top of my head, but all in all : US as a mediator/diplomat is dead. They only know one rule: “ME STRONG, ME US, YIELD!”.

Also, how can you negotiate with someone that posts conflicting views every minute on X?? Not 10 minutes goes by and there is a new message. Complete whiplash. Unpredictable to the point of being mentally ill. Not a good starting point for decent negotiations.
You just can’t trust a word the US is saying…

So now we got to believe that there will be a ceasefire? Till when? Till Israel has been resupplied I guess.

Next steps?

Next steps? Israel will think it has Trump’s support… So they will lay down a bit, maybe the occasional bomb getting dropped? Remember the thousands of recorded violations in Lebanon during the continuing ceasefire? That’s who they are: lying, cheating sobs.

Everyone knows that Israel doesn’t loose. It simply is incapable of loosing. And it will -as a degenerate gambler- dig a deeper and deeper hole just to prove how much it is not loosing!

After a bit of reorganization, they’ll get back to simply bombing. Trump will fume. And possibly even get pulled into the war because Israel will get pummeled by drones/missiles. And we can’t have the Promised People loosing to a bunch of desert-nomads, right? Right?!

Israel will likely make a mistake attacking some nuclear plant and we’ll have a Fukushima of the Middle East, angering all neighboring Arab countries. Iran will get pissed and close Hormuz for anyone but their friends.

And the US? 10% 10Y bond yields, a crashing stock market, oil in the 100s, unemployment through the roof. And maybe -just maybe- regime change in the US?