This is why I have been wishing for a capable military to attack US military bases inside the USA. I can't see these war dogs just backing off. A pre-emptive attack from multiple fronts may be needed to effectively disable the Borg war machine.
Not the military bases, attack where politicians congregate. It is the "Fed Post" who need to be culled, not the E-1 who joined because his options were the military or selling meth.
Will, unfortunately, have the opposite effect. Will become a bunch of 9-11s which is why Bush had such a high approval rating when he went after WMDs. The country will get behind Trump to be even more insane.
9-11 was not a military attack on a military target though ( the supposed hit on the Pentagon hardly counts in popular consciousness). If Russia, China, Iran and North Korea ( not sure if Venezuula has anything) fired at US military targets outside or even inside the US, at the same time, Uncle Sam would likely have to retreat back to base to guard the homeland as he should. A real deterrent is needed. Hard to see them able to sustain attacking on multiple fronts, and nobody will help them.
Under US and Israeli rules of engagement the Twin Towers were military targets. Numerous Federal agencies, including security agencies had offices there.
I would give the USA 1 month to evacuate its non-US military bases globally, then start pointing tanks and missiles at them! Humanity needs to grow some balls and push these parasites out. Enough with "I will do whatever I want"!
I keep waiting to see SOMEONE in "our" govt say to the NATO weenies:
"You WON'T help guard your necessary oil tanker supplies through the strait? OR join in the destruction of Iran (which may or may not help...) But want the U.S. to do it alone?
**WE** are okay on our energy supplies for the moment. YOU want some? You kick in to HELP!!"
Just dump the "we are the sole police force for the Strait ... you WANT energy? You fight for it!"
Although, having choked laughing at NATO's "we're sending military to protect Greenland against the U.S." ... all 10 or 12 soldiers, whom they quickly brought home -- and a dogsled! Sheesh.
Tired of carrying the whole planet! Bring the military HOME and set them to helping ICE!
I’m from Germany, and the first thing I do in the morning is read your articles—just like reading the newspaper at the breakfast table back in the day. It’s a great way to start every day. I hope you tone down your “war articles”—once a week is enough, or when important events happen. “Just relax,” my mentor used to say! I stumbled upon your site because I’m interested in gold and silver, and I hope you’ll write more about them again—or about investing in general; you’re brilliant no matter the subject. Quick question: Why aren’t you long on oil anymore? I find your idea of publishing your trades—even without an explanation—extremely interesting, but maybe with 2–3 sentences of explanation. Wishing you all the best, and let’s hope for a morphogenetic field of insight.
I just checked again. Nope. Still not entering oil again. I don't know why, and I might miss the violent move higher, but 4h & D says: nope. 1h says: jump in...
Yeah I was thinking to make an auto-publisher to publish my trades as they happen, with a wrap-up every day why I did what I did. Just something short. Technical, fundamentally, combination, ...
What may happen is not the oil price rising to destroy demand for oil, but the reduced availability of oil breaking the whole economy so badly that the ability to pay for oil drops further in a negative spiral of less oil and less economy.
That's a distinct possibility, but I don't think we're there yet. For example I have a good feeling about SILJ, but not silver nor oil at the moment.
The overall picture doesn't make much sense to me. Because if demand destruction is taking the helm, wouldn't that mean that also miners should go down? But the technical setup is reasonably.
Just checked it again. Nope. Not feeling it still...
I'm no good on specific timing, seeing trends very far in advance of actual inflection points, and trying to prepare for the inevitable.
September 2008 took FOREVER to finally happen, for instance. I could not understand why gold went down to $800 that August with the real economy so clearly bad... Later, it was clear; selling to cover margin calls.
Please don’t take this personally, but in the investment racket Doctors and Dentists are seen as easy marks. The reason is fairly simple. They have disposable income they’d like to leverage and are generally too busy with their practice to look deeply into events outside their particular expertise. They are also highly educated which you might think is an advantage, but what that really means is they will buy into a seemingly rational argument without looking too closely at the underlying details. My advice (as a trader of 20 years) is to find a good investment analyst like No1 and stick with him. If that analyst is moving too quickly for you, then either shadow his most conservative trades, or ask for a referral to someone more your speed. Believe me, there are trustworthy people in this world, but there are also a lot of sharks. Above all else, avoid private placements, especially in tech, mining and bio/pharma. Buy solid companies in well established industries that have a good record of paying dividends, which in many cases can be automatically reinvested on a dollar-cost averaging basis. Then settle in for the long haul. Also, if you haven’t read Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor, do that before you take another step.
These days we need doctors far more than we need stock traders. Just as you’d consult a specialist with a difficult diagnosis, think of investment in the same way. I would rather have a doctor whose mind is not distracted by a bad market when performing surgery!
I got fired for vaccine refusal in October 2021, after 18 years at that clinic, spearheading all of the covid testing in adult and pediatrics, and being the only early-treating physician.
I am not one of those easy marks, and never was interested in investment advice from anybody.
I invested in our 4 kids and caring for my fellow humans, in many different clinical and hospital settings, including OB and operative deliveries.
Our 4 kids are all doing well in their careers, student debt free. (MD, engineer, engineer, PhD statistician).
We are debt free. I get Social Security. I grow vegetables, blog and ride a fixed-gear bicycle.
When the kids were 12, 13, 14 and 15 we toured the world for 9 months with bikes, backpacks and youth hostels. We sold the house and cars in 2005 and blew the money on the trip...
I'm invested in a family that can survive, now helping with the grandkids.
I yearn for simpler times. My oldest grandparents (dob: 1890/93) lived a "simple life". No credit cards. Born pre-Model T, (Imagine!) No vacations to Florida. Never on a plane. Meat hit the table if grandpa or one of my uncles shot a deer, squirrel or whatever else was slow moving on any given day. Veggies came from Granny's garden. Canning for the lean, sunless days was a thing. All my great-grandparents came from Norway in the 1880s. The ones I reference here are my maternal set of grandparents. My grandpa spoke English as a second language, though he never visited Norway. He spoke with that sing-songy lilt peculiar to Norwegian speech. Lutheran services in Norwegian in rural churches.
The longest trip grandpa took was to France on a troop ship during WW1, to shoot at Germans. No one needed to teach him how to handle a gun. Never wounded in that war, came home with TB however. All my grandparents made it through the great influenza pandemic (1918) and only one went to war. Modesty and frugality ran through all their lives. Patriotism was a default setting. One of their sons, my unknown (to me) uncle, a paratrooper, was shot out of the sky at age 20 years in the Pacific Theater. (20 fucking years old and gone.) A younger uncle told me once that he thought grandma would NEVER stop crying, on hearing the news. A generation later, all is forgiven and we're buying Japanese "penalty boxes".
Fast forward to the present and we live in some version of a bad, never ending, acid trip where con-artists and flim-flam sharpies work the levers. I could puke thinking of what was built and destroyed for the benefit of the Billionaire Epstein Class. My $.02, ymmv.
Tbanks No1. It is that periodic Minsky crisis, not a fly-by-wire steady-appearing-state based on widespread belief in continuity.
China pays attention to Michael Hudson, the balance-of-payments maestro who first described the petrodollar, and Deng Xiaopeng supposedly read and took to heart The Limits To Growth from 1972. We just peaked out, I think.
I keep wondering about that gold outflow from the US, what it is temporarily stabilizing.
" The US is apparently net-settling its trade deficit with China in gold - if that data holds up. In three of the last four months it seems that gold is flowing East. No Bretton Woods conference. No announcement. Just two countries quietly deciding that when the paper gets complicated, the metal clears the table."
Reset will be from profit to survival necessities. I don't think most of the debt in the world will ever be paid. I think it is going to be impossible to even fake soon.
We have no debts and I grow a couple of large vegetable gardens. It's probably more expensive that just buying the groceries, even if they wouldn't be as nutritious, but doing it gives a perspective of reality...
Don't do or write anything that feels like a chore! Just write what you like and enjoy the most. And only as much as it feels good. Once a week is plenty.
If you ever write anything aboout a war, instead of detailed analysis, just post your opinion:
- war is escalating, oil prices are going higher, medications, fertiliser, food and so much more will be sacre, we are screwed. <- here you go, one, two liner, opinion, no need to tripple check and verify ;-)
Seriously, you are putting way too much work into it. We all follow war. We know what is going on. Keep it short and to the level that you can see it as a side hobby and not a as a tedious job.
And yeah, we can all use more markets insights, that's where value is. Screw the war...
Growth for growths sake in a finite space, what could possibly go wrong! I've said this so often it hurts. The following is another one I like to quote all too often, but it does make some stop and think. The exponential factor that our brains don't seem to understand very well: If something doubles every day and it takes 30 days to fill some mythical container when is it half full? You'd be surprised at how many get this wildly wrong. Once understood that it's day 29 when half full I then ask how full do you think it is on day 25? Well it's a whopping 3.125 % full. So day 28 still only 25% full. So as a thought experiment lets convert 30 days to 30 decades. Thirty decades is three centuries, that would be 1730 around the start of what is called the industrial age. Which decade would that put us in? Doublings don't have to be linear, the rate of doubling can also increase. If you understand compound interest at all, and most here I like to think do, then you know that at 1% interest per year will double the base amount in 70 years. So 20% interest 3.5 years if the base remains the same. But if the base grows during that time frame? This is where the doubling time shortens at an unchanged interest rate.Hmm.....
"Iran has been laying mines in the Strait, and removing them will take weeks to months."
Is that actually true though? I've only seen this in MSM press statements, and we all know how trustworthy they are. Is there an Iranian source for this? The fact that they're allowing limited passage suggests to me they haven't done that yet. No doubt they have the capacity, but leaving it as an open question achieves the same effect no? Who would dare take the risk?
You're right to question it. As far as I can tell, there's no Iranian source confirming mine-laying. Every report traces back to US intelligence sources - CNN cited "two people familiar with US intelligence reporting", Reuters cited "two sources familiar with the matter", CBS said "US officials". Even within the US administration the messaging is contradictory: Trump said he didn't think Iran had managed to lay any mines, Bessent told Sky News they "know that they have not mined the straits", while Hegseth said there's no clear evidence yet. Meanwhile CENTCOM claims to have destroyed 30+ minelaying vessels.
That said, it's not without precedent. Iran laid roughly 150 mines in the Strait during the 1988 Tanker War - one of which nearly sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts. And estimates before this conflict put their stockpile at around 5,000 sea mines. So the capability is absolutely there.
But your point about ambiguity rings true. Foreign Affairs essentially argued the same thing last week - even a *modest* mining campaign, or the mere threat of one, would be just as effective as an actual blockade because it forces insurers and crews to price in the risk. War risk insurance has already been pulled. Freight rates are at record highs. The Strait is functionally closed without a single confirmed mine detonation against a vessel. Why burn through your arsenal when the threat alone does the job?
I concur. Seems it would be simple to place mines that ONLY activate when a signal is sent by a "watcher".
Of course if a ship gets sunk then the passage will be blocked not to mention an oily mess - but it might just be a choice made if push comes to shove and especially if it is "lighter" such that it will mainly just burn up - and then the carcass of the vessel will sink and block the way.
"Why burn through your arsenal when the threat alone does the job?"
That was exactly my thinking. Of course under either scenario you'd have to have ships use that narrow passage for the threat to be credible. I should have thought this through a bit more it seems:)
If this is Tel Aviv, where are the tall buildings, why is there a crowd with prayer mats gathered outside a ruined mosque, and why does a wrecked car have white licence plates? (Israeli plates are yellow - Iranian plates are white). Pretty sure this is Tehran, but it could be Gaza or possibly AI.
The thing about mines and minesweeping is that if there are any, they were probably laid on the sea floor and buried twenty years ago with a trigger system for the day they are needed. Minesweepers partly work by analysing the contours of the sea floor and noting discrepancies etc over time (as well as magnetic field changes etc) to build up a picture, but on a long enough timeline the data probably just becomes the baseline and therefore useless. So even presuming that Western assets were able to build up such a picture by stealth, it's not going to be all that helpful even if they can somehow sweep during an active war situation where they're being targeted.
coulda-woulda-shoulda. We live with our choices every day. Nothing is a bad choice. Dwelling on it is. Kind-of. You can change the past, but you can change the future.
As I keep saying to people: first see that your immediate debts are paid off. Yes, I'm also still paying of 2 mortgages - still 7 years or so left, so all I pay back is the cash. And I have a nice portfolio on the side, which allows me to lose some more. Erhm. I was saying 😂
Nice. Yeah in fact my biggest issue is a fucked shoulder from a tree felling accident. I'll probably be able to sell my tractor at a good price to a nice Chinese family in a few years when the chessboard pieces are moved around...
They already own a crap load of our real estate - next stop our Government.
How do you imagine they are going to resolve this? The system is unstable and trying to collapse into one of two states. It seems they have only two possible options:
1. Let all the debt implode, resulting in crisis, contagion, huge DXY spike and rapid deflation (like March 2020)
2. Extreme, rapid and massive stimulus that makes even COVID printing look like a small drop in the bucket
Is "not" an acceptable answer? Crash & burn comes to mind? Oh, I'm sure they'll try. Probably jawboning, strong-arming, interest twiddling, printing...
But I don't see a good way out anymore. But don't worry, I've been seeing this for the past 14 years (and some here already longer than me), and we're still here. I don't want it to happen, but math never lies. Pitchforks and torches, long walks of short cliffs, trying to fly from tall buildings etc comes to mind.
Be mentally prepared for it, but understand things will get better. You just have to bite through.
And better secure yourself now so you have a headstart on the other side!
Oh, and understand that the world is a big place. There's always somewhere where it won't touch you.
Sure I'm just wondering how you think this will play out or what the powers that be are going to do to try to bluff their way out of this since it seems we are finally nearing the end of the road.
I know there is no good way out, just wondering what the implosion actually looks like in concrete terms. What is the sequence of events?
I'm going to save this for another day. Something to touch upon. Need to let it play in my mind. (or if i didn't do this already, but I don't recall)
Anyway, this collapse won't be fast. It'll be a long grinding process. Depending on the choices our leaders make it'll be worse or worsererer. (i don't hold our politicians in high esteem 😉)
The Stoics had a word for it. Sympatheia - the idea that all things are mutually woven together, that a tremor in one corner of the cosmos moves through everything else. They meant it cosmologically. I believe in this with my whole heart, mind and soul. Everything is connected.
~
Oh those Stoics!
~
You seem to be a fine person no-one - or #1 as the case may be - keep up your efforts, but remember - we all need rest - we all need time to contemplate - to sleep on it - to give our mind time to make connections.
You know or maybe you don't, Saint Patrick was held captive - but then what was it in the 5th Century AD (give or take a 100 years!) he found freedom - and guess what he did - he got rid of the "snakes in Ireland".
Now I can't resist this discourse from the "ai" - oh Lordy - that ole Saint Patrick - here is what the "ai" says literally:
~
No, Saint Patrick did not get rid of snakes in Ireland because there were no snakes there to begin with.
The legend that Saint Patrick banished all snakes from Ireland is a popular myth, but it is not based in biological reality. Ireland has never had native snakes due to its geographical isolation. During the last Ice Age, when sea levels were lower and land bridges may have connected Ireland to Britain and mainland Europe, the climate was too cold for cold-blooded reptiles like snakes to survive. Even after the glaciers melted and the Irish Sea formed, snakes never made it to the island.
Geological and zoological evidence confirms that no snake fossils have ever been found in Ireland. Experts, including Nigel Monaghan from the National Museum of Ireland, state: "At no time has there ever been any suggestion of snakes in Ireland. [There was] nothing for St. Patrick to banish."
The story likely symbolizes the spread of Christianity and the eradication of pagan beliefs—snakes were often seen as symbols of evil or paganism in medieval Christian iconography. The tale became associated with Saint Patrick’s legendary 40-day fast on Croagh Patrick, a mountain still revered today.
So while Saint Patrick is celebrated for bringing Christianity to Ireland, the idea that he drove out snakes is a symbolic legend, not a literal event.
~
I could argue there were other metaphorical snakes in Ireland - and on Saint Patrick's day that is my argument. Ireland ought unite - leave the UK to their own devices and the City of London - I got a feeling they have a deficit in what they claim they possess. And it is "High Time" for some debts to be paid! All debts must be paid.
but the boss doesn't think he's fit enough. He tells the boss he is able to cut down any tree in a single swing.
To prove this, he goes outside, hits a five foot tree with his axe, and it falls over. The boss is impressed. The old man then repeats this with a ten foot tree. Then a thirty foot tree. Finally, he takes his axe up to an 80 foot redwood, swings, and the giant tree comes tumbling down.
The boss is amazed, and asks the man how he learned to do that. The man says "I practiced in the Sahara forest."
"Don't you mean the Sahara desert?" The boss asks.
"Well yes," says the old man, "that's what they call it now."
Correct. Debts do not die until they are repaid, repossessed or defaulted. If defaulted, then the lender assumes & pays the debt and loses the assets (money). All debts are eventually repaid.
jubilee... nope... moral hazard, and it's Unjustified Retribution in too many cases to allow a general jubilee. What would a narrow jubilee look like ?
"the people running the current system would rather light themselves on fire"
The terms are acceptable
🤣
This is why I have been wishing for a capable military to attack US military bases inside the USA. I can't see these war dogs just backing off. A pre-emptive attack from multiple fronts may be needed to effectively disable the Borg war machine.
Not the military bases, attack where politicians congregate. It is the "Fed Post" who need to be culled, not the E-1 who joined because his options were the military or selling meth.
Where are all those second amendment types when you need them? ;O)
Waiting. Waiting, watching, and praying.
A landslide starts with small pebbles...
Will, unfortunately, have the opposite effect. Will become a bunch of 9-11s which is why Bush had such a high approval rating when he went after WMDs. The country will get behind Trump to be even more insane.
9-11 was not a military attack on a military target though ( the supposed hit on the Pentagon hardly counts in popular consciousness). If Russia, China, Iran and North Korea ( not sure if Venezuula has anything) fired at US military targets outside or even inside the US, at the same time, Uncle Sam would likely have to retreat back to base to guard the homeland as he should. A real deterrent is needed. Hard to see them able to sustain attacking on multiple fronts, and nobody will help them.
Signed- The Armchair Strategist!
Under US and Israeli rules of engagement the Twin Towers were military targets. Numerous Federal agencies, including security agencies had offices there.
Well , IF I was in charge! !
I would give the USA 1 month to evacuate its non-US military bases globally, then start pointing tanks and missiles at them! Humanity needs to grow some balls and push these parasites out. Enough with "I will do whatever I want"!
I keep waiting to see SOMEONE in "our" govt say to the NATO weenies:
"You WON'T help guard your necessary oil tanker supplies through the strait? OR join in the destruction of Iran (which may or may not help...) But want the U.S. to do it alone?
**WE** are okay on our energy supplies for the moment. YOU want some? You kick in to HELP!!"
Just dump the "we are the sole police force for the Strait ... you WANT energy? You fight for it!"
Although, having choked laughing at NATO's "we're sending military to protect Greenland against the U.S." ... all 10 or 12 soldiers, whom they quickly brought home -- and a dogsled! Sheesh.
Tired of carrying the whole planet! Bring the military HOME and set them to helping ICE!
You have a point. Worth considering. Thanks.
discovered this place about a week ago. so glad I did. Such an infinite difference between technical skill and wisdom
I’m from Germany, and the first thing I do in the morning is read your articles—just like reading the newspaper at the breakfast table back in the day. It’s a great way to start every day. I hope you tone down your “war articles”—once a week is enough, or when important events happen. “Just relax,” my mentor used to say! I stumbled upon your site because I’m interested in gold and silver, and I hope you’ll write more about them again—or about investing in general; you’re brilliant no matter the subject. Quick question: Why aren’t you long on oil anymore? I find your idea of publishing your trades—even without an explanation—extremely interesting, but maybe with 2–3 sentences of explanation. Wishing you all the best, and let’s hope for a morphogenetic field of insight.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
I just checked again. Nope. Still not entering oil again. I don't know why, and I might miss the violent move higher, but 4h & D says: nope. 1h says: jump in...
Yeah I was thinking to make an auto-publisher to publish my trades as they happen, with a wrap-up every day why I did what I did. Just something short. Technical, fundamentally, combination, ...
What may happen is not the oil price rising to destroy demand for oil, but the reduced availability of oil breaking the whole economy so badly that the ability to pay for oil drops further in a negative spiral of less oil and less economy.
That's a distinct possibility, but I don't think we're there yet. For example I have a good feeling about SILJ, but not silver nor oil at the moment.
The overall picture doesn't make much sense to me. Because if demand destruction is taking the helm, wouldn't that mean that also miners should go down? But the technical setup is reasonably.
Just checked it again. Nope. Not feeling it still...
I'm no good on specific timing, seeing trends very far in advance of actual inflection points, and trying to prepare for the inevitable.
September 2008 took FOREVER to finally happen, for instance. I could not understand why gold went down to $800 that August with the real economy so clearly bad... Later, it was clear; selling to cover margin calls.
💯!
Hey Doc!
Please don’t take this personally, but in the investment racket Doctors and Dentists are seen as easy marks. The reason is fairly simple. They have disposable income they’d like to leverage and are generally too busy with their practice to look deeply into events outside their particular expertise. They are also highly educated which you might think is an advantage, but what that really means is they will buy into a seemingly rational argument without looking too closely at the underlying details. My advice (as a trader of 20 years) is to find a good investment analyst like No1 and stick with him. If that analyst is moving too quickly for you, then either shadow his most conservative trades, or ask for a referral to someone more your speed. Believe me, there are trustworthy people in this world, but there are also a lot of sharks. Above all else, avoid private placements, especially in tech, mining and bio/pharma. Buy solid companies in well established industries that have a good record of paying dividends, which in many cases can be automatically reinvested on a dollar-cost averaging basis. Then settle in for the long haul. Also, if you haven’t read Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor, do that before you take another step.
https://www.amazon.ca/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Value-Investing/dp/0060555661
These days we need doctors far more than we need stock traders. Just as you’d consult a specialist with a difficult diagnosis, think of investment in the same way. I would rather have a doctor whose mind is not distracted by a bad market when performing surgery!
I got fired for vaccine refusal in October 2021, after 18 years at that clinic, spearheading all of the covid testing in adult and pediatrics, and being the only early-treating physician.
I am not one of those easy marks, and never was interested in investment advice from anybody.
I invested in our 4 kids and caring for my fellow humans, in many different clinical and hospital settings, including OB and operative deliveries.
Our 4 kids are all doing well in their careers, student debt free. (MD, engineer, engineer, PhD statistician).
We are debt free. I get Social Security. I grow vegetables, blog and ride a fixed-gear bicycle.
When the kids were 12, 13, 14 and 15 we toured the world for 9 months with bikes, backpacks and youth hostels. We sold the house and cars in 2005 and blew the money on the trip...
I'm invested in a family that can survive, now helping with the grandkids.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/
You might find Tim Watkins interesting.
Thanks, I have often found his Consciousness Of Sheep essays interesting, and have linked to many of them over the years.
His latest article starts with the effects of peak coal in 1927, peak hard-coal, the good stuff for ships and industry. https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/03/19/a-storm-is-coming/
Dr. Tim Morgan, at Surplus Energy Economics,is on the same side of the "big pond" as Tim Watkins https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
I yearn for simpler times. My oldest grandparents (dob: 1890/93) lived a "simple life". No credit cards. Born pre-Model T, (Imagine!) No vacations to Florida. Never on a plane. Meat hit the table if grandpa or one of my uncles shot a deer, squirrel or whatever else was slow moving on any given day. Veggies came from Granny's garden. Canning for the lean, sunless days was a thing. All my great-grandparents came from Norway in the 1880s. The ones I reference here are my maternal set of grandparents. My grandpa spoke English as a second language, though he never visited Norway. He spoke with that sing-songy lilt peculiar to Norwegian speech. Lutheran services in Norwegian in rural churches.
The longest trip grandpa took was to France on a troop ship during WW1, to shoot at Germans. No one needed to teach him how to handle a gun. Never wounded in that war, came home with TB however. All my grandparents made it through the great influenza pandemic (1918) and only one went to war. Modesty and frugality ran through all their lives. Patriotism was a default setting. One of their sons, my unknown (to me) uncle, a paratrooper, was shot out of the sky at age 20 years in the Pacific Theater. (20 fucking years old and gone.) A younger uncle told me once that he thought grandma would NEVER stop crying, on hearing the news. A generation later, all is forgiven and we're buying Japanese "penalty boxes".
Fast forward to the present and we live in some version of a bad, never ending, acid trip where con-artists and flim-flam sharpies work the levers. I could puke thinking of what was built and destroyed for the benefit of the Billionaire Epstein Class. My $.02, ymmv.
Tbanks No1. It is that periodic Minsky crisis, not a fly-by-wire steady-appearing-state based on widespread belief in continuity.
China pays attention to Michael Hudson, the balance-of-payments maestro who first described the petrodollar, and Deng Xiaopeng supposedly read and took to heart The Limits To Growth from 1972. We just peaked out, I think.
I keep wondering about that gold outflow from the US, what it is temporarily stabilizing.
" The US is apparently net-settling its trade deficit with China in gold - if that data holds up. In three of the last four months it seems that gold is flowing East. No Bretton Woods conference. No announcement. Just two countries quietly deciding that when the paper gets complicated, the metal clears the table."
Reset will be from profit to survival necessities. I don't think most of the debt in the world will ever be paid. I think it is going to be impossible to even fake soon.
We have no debts and I grow a couple of large vegetable gardens. It's probably more expensive that just buying the groceries, even if they wouldn't be as nutritious, but doing it gives a perspective of reality...
Some of the best market commentary out there
Welcome back after that well deserved break! :-)
Yeah... It lasted like... All of 10h. Then I got itchy.
And we’re the wiser for it
😍 I live to serve.
You made zerohedge. People in comments saying it seems like an article written 15 years ago before that site was compromised. Nice work for a No1.
💕 wow. Third time!
Don't do or write anything that feels like a chore! Just write what you like and enjoy the most. And only as much as it feels good. Once a week is plenty.
If you ever write anything aboout a war, instead of detailed analysis, just post your opinion:
- war is escalating, oil prices are going higher, medications, fertiliser, food and so much more will be sacre, we are screwed. <- here you go, one, two liner, opinion, no need to tripple check and verify ;-)
Seriously, you are putting way too much work into it. We all follow war. We know what is going on. Keep it short and to the level that you can see it as a side hobby and not a as a tedious job.
And yeah, we can all use more markets insights, that's where value is. Screw the war...
Though the war IS the markets and the markets ARE the war... Everything is connected.
Growth for growths sake in a finite space, what could possibly go wrong! I've said this so often it hurts. The following is another one I like to quote all too often, but it does make some stop and think. The exponential factor that our brains don't seem to understand very well: If something doubles every day and it takes 30 days to fill some mythical container when is it half full? You'd be surprised at how many get this wildly wrong. Once understood that it's day 29 when half full I then ask how full do you think it is on day 25? Well it's a whopping 3.125 % full. So day 28 still only 25% full. So as a thought experiment lets convert 30 days to 30 decades. Thirty decades is three centuries, that would be 1730 around the start of what is called the industrial age. Which decade would that put us in? Doublings don't have to be linear, the rate of doubling can also increase. If you understand compound interest at all, and most here I like to think do, then you know that at 1% interest per year will double the base amount in 70 years. So 20% interest 3.5 years if the base remains the same. But if the base grows during that time frame? This is where the doubling time shortens at an unchanged interest rate.Hmm.....
With all the wars happening, at least you were able to bring us some happy financial news!
😏
"Iran has been laying mines in the Strait, and removing them will take weeks to months."
Is that actually true though? I've only seen this in MSM press statements, and we all know how trustworthy they are. Is there an Iranian source for this? The fact that they're allowing limited passage suggests to me they haven't done that yet. No doubt they have the capacity, but leaving it as an open question achieves the same effect no? Who would dare take the risk?
You're right to question it. As far as I can tell, there's no Iranian source confirming mine-laying. Every report traces back to US intelligence sources - CNN cited "two people familiar with US intelligence reporting", Reuters cited "two sources familiar with the matter", CBS said "US officials". Even within the US administration the messaging is contradictory: Trump said he didn't think Iran had managed to lay any mines, Bessent told Sky News they "know that they have not mined the straits", while Hegseth said there's no clear evidence yet. Meanwhile CENTCOM claims to have destroyed 30+ minelaying vessels.
That said, it's not without precedent. Iran laid roughly 150 mines in the Strait during the 1988 Tanker War - one of which nearly sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts. And estimates before this conflict put their stockpile at around 5,000 sea mines. So the capability is absolutely there.
But your point about ambiguity rings true. Foreign Affairs essentially argued the same thing last week - even a *modest* mining campaign, or the mere threat of one, would be just as effective as an actual blockade because it forces insurers and crews to price in the risk. War risk insurance has already been pulled. Freight rates are at record highs. The Strait is functionally closed without a single confirmed mine detonation against a vessel. Why burn through your arsenal when the threat alone does the job?
Do they not yet have wi-fi linked mines? Even my home has a lights on, lights off command….
Honestly, I’m wasted in a domestic environment…
I concur. Seems it would be simple to place mines that ONLY activate when a signal is sent by a "watcher".
Of course if a ship gets sunk then the passage will be blocked not to mention an oily mess - but it might just be a choice made if push comes to shove and especially if it is "lighter" such that it will mainly just burn up - and then the carcass of the vessel will sink and block the way.
Regards,
BK
"Why burn through your arsenal when the threat alone does the job?"
That was exactly my thinking. Of course under either scenario you'd have to have ships use that narrow passage for the threat to be credible. I should have thought this through a bit more it seems:)
Here's an example of how high the BS gets stacked:
https://www.tiktok.com/@rukhsana2466/video/7618043980734860566
If this is Tel Aviv, where are the tall buildings, why is there a crowd with prayer mats gathered outside a ruined mosque, and why does a wrecked car have white licence plates? (Israeli plates are yellow - Iranian plates are white). Pretty sure this is Tehran, but it could be Gaza or possibly AI.
The thing about mines and minesweeping is that if there are any, they were probably laid on the sea floor and buried twenty years ago with a trigger system for the day they are needed. Minesweepers partly work by analysing the contours of the sea floor and noting discrepancies etc over time (as well as magnetic field changes etc) to build up a picture, but on a long enough timeline the data probably just becomes the baseline and therefore useless. So even presuming that Western assets were able to build up such a picture by stealth, it's not going to be all that helpful even if they can somehow sweep during an active war situation where they're being targeted.
https://sweepthestrait.com/
Hehe! :D
This was so riveting and entertaining.
Silver looks like a thing for me but I haven't paid off the mortgage.
I wish I didn't buy that diesel tractor for $35 k
I could have bought gold.
coulda-woulda-shoulda. We live with our choices every day. Nothing is a bad choice. Dwelling on it is. Kind-of. You can change the past, but you can change the future.
As I keep saying to people: first see that your immediate debts are paid off. Yes, I'm also still paying of 2 mortgages - still 7 years or so left, so all I pay back is the cash. And I have a nice portfolio on the side, which allows me to lose some more. Erhm. I was saying 😂
Nice. Yeah in fact my biggest issue is a fucked shoulder from a tree felling accident. I'll probably be able to sell my tractor at a good price to a nice Chinese family in a few years when the chessboard pieces are moved around...
They already own a crap load of our real estate - next stop our Government.
How do you imagine they are going to resolve this? The system is unstable and trying to collapse into one of two states. It seems they have only two possible options:
1. Let all the debt implode, resulting in crisis, contagion, huge DXY spike and rapid deflation (like March 2020)
2. Extreme, rapid and massive stimulus that makes even COVID printing look like a small drop in the bucket
Or maybe 1 first, followed by 2?
Is "not" an acceptable answer? Crash & burn comes to mind? Oh, I'm sure they'll try. Probably jawboning, strong-arming, interest twiddling, printing...
But I don't see a good way out anymore. But don't worry, I've been seeing this for the past 14 years (and some here already longer than me), and we're still here. I don't want it to happen, but math never lies. Pitchforks and torches, long walks of short cliffs, trying to fly from tall buildings etc comes to mind.
Be mentally prepared for it, but understand things will get better. You just have to bite through.
And better secure yourself now so you have a headstart on the other side!
Oh, and understand that the world is a big place. There's always somewhere where it won't touch you.
Sure I'm just wondering how you think this will play out or what the powers that be are going to do to try to bluff their way out of this since it seems we are finally nearing the end of the road.
I know there is no good way out, just wondering what the implosion actually looks like in concrete terms. What is the sequence of events?
I'm going to save this for another day. Something to touch upon. Need to let it play in my mind. (or if i didn't do this already, but I don't recall)
Anyway, this collapse won't be fast. It'll be a long grinding process. Depending on the choices our leaders make it'll be worse or worsererer. (i don't hold our politicians in high esteem 😉)
I look forward to this granular analysis of what it will actually look like. I so value your analysis-thank you.
long grinding... ... EEAO ?
No doubt on this:
~
The Stoics had a word for it. Sympatheia - the idea that all things are mutually woven together, that a tremor in one corner of the cosmos moves through everything else. They meant it cosmologically. I believe in this with my whole heart, mind and soul. Everything is connected.
~
Oh those Stoics!
~
You seem to be a fine person no-one - or #1 as the case may be - keep up your efforts, but remember - we all need rest - we all need time to contemplate - to sleep on it - to give our mind time to make connections.
Oh, so as not to be remiss - let me say to one and all -
Happy Saint Patrick's Day!
https://youtu.be/nGt-G-UR6cM?list=RDnGt-G-UR6cM
~
You know or maybe you don't, Saint Patrick was held captive - but then what was it in the 5th Century AD (give or take a 100 years!) he found freedom - and guess what he did - he got rid of the "snakes in Ireland".
(ha, ha!)
Peace!
BK
Now I can't resist this discourse from the "ai" - oh Lordy - that ole Saint Patrick - here is what the "ai" says literally:
~
No, Saint Patrick did not get rid of snakes in Ireland because there were no snakes there to begin with.
The legend that Saint Patrick banished all snakes from Ireland is a popular myth, but it is not based in biological reality. Ireland has never had native snakes due to its geographical isolation. During the last Ice Age, when sea levels were lower and land bridges may have connected Ireland to Britain and mainland Europe, the climate was too cold for cold-blooded reptiles like snakes to survive. Even after the glaciers melted and the Irish Sea formed, snakes never made it to the island.
Geological and zoological evidence confirms that no snake fossils have ever been found in Ireland. Experts, including Nigel Monaghan from the National Museum of Ireland, state: "At no time has there ever been any suggestion of snakes in Ireland. [There was] nothing for St. Patrick to banish."
The story likely symbolizes the spread of Christianity and the eradication of pagan beliefs—snakes were often seen as symbols of evil or paganism in medieval Christian iconography. The tale became associated with Saint Patrick’s legendary 40-day fast on Croagh Patrick, a mountain still revered today.
So while Saint Patrick is celebrated for bringing Christianity to Ireland, the idea that he drove out snakes is a symbolic legend, not a literal event.
~
I could argue there were other metaphorical snakes in Ireland - and on Saint Patrick's day that is my argument. Ireland ought unite - leave the UK to their own devices and the City of London - I got a feeling they have a deficit in what they claim they possess. And it is "High Time" for some debts to be paid! All debts must be paid.
Correct?
Makes me think of this:
An old man applies for a job as a woodcutter,
but the boss doesn't think he's fit enough. He tells the boss he is able to cut down any tree in a single swing.
To prove this, he goes outside, hits a five foot tree with his axe, and it falls over. The boss is impressed. The old man then repeats this with a ten foot tree. Then a thirty foot tree. Finally, he takes his axe up to an 80 foot redwood, swings, and the giant tree comes tumbling down.
The boss is amazed, and asks the man how he learned to do that. The man says "I practiced in the Sahara forest."
"Don't you mean the Sahara desert?" The boss asks.
"Well yes," says the old man, "that's what they call it now."
Good one nobody! I mean no-one...or rather make that #1. Whatever - tis a good story!
Correct. Debts do not die until they are repaid, repossessed or defaulted. If defaulted, then the lender assumes & pays the debt and loses the assets (money). All debts are eventually repaid.
Just like we ALL are connected in the Stoic mindset - Sympatheia - so must ALL debts be paid.
Some debts are paid willingly - some are paid via Justified Retribution.
Seems an easy choice - perhaps tis time for a jubilee?
What you think entropy wins?
jubilee... nope... moral hazard, and it's Unjustified Retribution in too many cases to allow a general jubilee. What would a narrow jubilee look like ?
Allow me to suggest, in case you haven't already:
Read the short story "There Are No Snakes in Ireland" by Frederick Forsith.
It's one of the ten stories in the book *No comebacks*.
Can you provide a link to said story - cause it stumped the "ai"
Peace!
BK
Google found it: https://readerslibrary.org/wp-content/uploads/There-are-no-Snakes-in-Ireland.pdf
As I said... AI is dumb 😉
Bookmarked and downloaded on Saint Patrick's Day!
Thanks!
BK
~~~~
'Are you listening, deadly one? Then hear this. You may live a little longer but
then you will die, as all things die. And you will die alone, without a female with
which to mate, because there are no snakes in Ireland.'
The saw-scaled viper did not hear him, or if it did, gave no hint of
understanding. Deep in its hole in the warm sand beneath him, it was busy,
totally absorbed in doing what nature commanded it must do.
At the base of a snake's tail are two overlapping plate-scales which obscure the
cloaca. The viper's tail was erect, the body throbbed in ancient rhythm. The plates
were parted, and from the cloaca, one by one, each an inch long in its transparent
sac, each as deadly at birth as its parent, she was bringing her dozen babies into
the world.
"Capital is not fleeing to gold." In fact, gold has been cratering.
As expected actually... Gold has been holding up properly considering all.
FYI: https://no01.substack.com/p/strait-to-brrrrrrr there I went deeper into it most recently