Again one fact begs to be recognized, which is that there is seemingly no awareness by our decision-makers that the oil market is a GLOBAL market. The belief apparently persists that our moves can be fine-tuned to affect only selected parties, while leaving the rest of the world untouched. But as the world economy devours almost everything it is capable of pumping at this point in history, major reductions in supply coming from ANYWHERE will ripple throughout the globe as buyers raise their bids to pull down what they need from other sources.
And now we are talking about semi-permanent impacts on world oil supply, like that you mention which occurs when pumping stops. We seem to hope this will happen in Iran, and that Iran alone will be affected. But this will have a GLOBAL, semi-permanent impact, not limited to Iran alone.
Interesting that the damaging effects of similar pump-stopping in the other gulf countries is never discussed. (Recall that some other countries also have full storage and had to stop pumping.) All of this damage is accumulating, as is the damage from the bombing of gas fields, etc.
Indulge in a bit of theorizing here. One possibility: Perhaps in our ignorance, we believe that shutting off this supply long term is beneficial for us because it will drive the world toward oil markets we control (North America, Venezuela, etc.). Trump et all seem to believe we have a bottomless supply. They might be that stupid.
Another possibility, even more far out: What if the real object of this whole exercise (the war, that is) is to be another exercise in forcing down global fossil fuel consumption, as the climate change floggers, the WEF, and the rest of the Epstein Class have espoused? Stage 1 was COVID, a demand shock to shut down the global economy. Stage 2 was the Ukraine War, blowing up of NordStream, cutting off most imports from Russia, etc., a man-made supply shock. Stage 3 we have now, another made-made supply shock. The permanent destruction of supply forces things.
Yes, crazy, I know, but all these "global" events seem to have a common thread.
I see the whole thing as setting up for Agenda 2030 as well. Slowly strangle the populations of the west. Follow up with big brother providing everything life needs to survive. Enter social credit system and then deny anyone access that doesn't follow the script. Three more years to starve out the non compliers and then close everything. My argument from forty plus years ago was and still is; you think the powers that be will allow the plebs the last drips of oil to be burnt, on their Sunday drives, while their militaries and militarized police forces run dry? Think again.
Please, I had understood this comment section as a space for serious, adult discussions. Agenda 2030 lunatic conspiracies should have no place here. Not everything happening out there is part of a multi-layered super-secret dark conspiracy. Actually, the real "conspiracies" by the economic and political powers are usually carried out in broad daylight, like most of the world agreeing to surrender a decent chunk of our personal freedoms after 9/11 because terrorism (as if terrorism was invented by Bin Laden or something).
I don’t think I’ll be claimed that everything happening out there is a super secret dark conspiracy although you seem to think that what’s your point exactly
True but in a different way. The world isn't running out of oil. It is running out of cheap, easy to extract oil. The tar sands of Alberta and Venezuela are massive but require a lot of post mining processing costing approximately $50-60 a barrel break even point. Iran, Russia, Arabian peninsula are about $10-20 break even.
Food supply. Let's not forget about it. Beef at all time highs in price. Cattle (at least in the US) at all time lows.
In the last several years there have been "mysterious fires" at chicken houses and processing plants.
The Iran war has also created a twofer -- fertilizer for planting this years crops has been drastically curtailed and the cost of diesel has kept commercial fishing vessels in port as well as keeping many farmers on the sidelines.
As the old sea captain says "There be a big storm a comin'"
I am sure that shutting off fuel supplies and forcing people to move to EV or do without personal transportation is a goal or at least "desirable" side effect of this charade
While the Hormuz blockade grinds on, a more insidious pressure spreads. Record cargoes of American diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel—some 240,000 metric tons loaded in March alone by ExxonMobil, BP, and Vitol from the U.S. Gulf Coast—steam across the Pacific on 30–40 day voyages to Australia, meant to cushion allies from Middle Eastern disruption.
In this lane, Iran and proxies strike asymmetrically. At Gulf of Mexico Coast terminals, a tanker erupts in flames during loading, sending black smoke over Houston. In the Panama Canal corridor, small craft sink in the approaches, delaying transits. Far out in the open Pacific and into the Coral Sea, low-signature sailing vessels release remotely piloted loitering munitions from dozens of miles away. A near-miss on an outbound tanker produces viral footage of fire on the water and frantic radio calls.
The emotional toll strikes hardest at home. Americans see their “reliable” energy lifeline—projected as a strategic strength—suddenly appear vulnerable. Insurance premiums surge, pump prices climb, and voices in Washington demand overstretched naval assets return to defend the homeland. Iran delivers no decisive blow, yet the narrative fractures: even the world’s premier energy exporter cannot fully secure its own arteries.
Panic grows not from total halt but from the creeping fear that the oceans, long America’s moat, have become contested gray zones.
I think you make a very good point. If the US interdicts vessels on the high seas that earlier left Iranian ports, (which is an act of war) why wouldn't Iran effectively do the same to vessels that leave US ports? Iran's means of doing so would be different of course, but the consequence not the means is what matters. And it's not just the vessels that are vulnerable. The port infrastructure for oil transfer would be highly susceptible to sabotage. If that gets hit then ten million bpd of US petroleum exports goes up in a cloud of smoke.
Beyond Trump's bluster, the concept of stopping ships on the high seas would surely be very difficult, while the possibility for retaliation by Iran against US vessels and infrastructure would be high.
Iran is paid for cargo before leaving, so if vessels are interdicted on high seas it becomes the cargo-owners problem not Iran's. If such piracy on the high seas was to occur, I'd say the owners of China-bound oil might phone a friend to help them out of their troubles.
Petrol products exported from the USA are products removed from the US market, driving up the prices of those that remain in the US market. There will be some demand destruction, but the uptick in prices will inevitably lead US politicians to ban exports. “Sorry, Mate.”
The gadfly strategy that you describe is very plausible, but maybe not yet do-able by Iran alone. There are others who could, help or supply the enabling tech, but we are some way from that yet... many other options ahead. I think we might more likely see China buy oil in Yuan, with Iran being the first bidder. After paying for and loading the oil, China will announce escort of the cargoes in some way. If USA then bombs the remaining Iranian loading terminals, China gets one shipload and the blockade has no further purpose. Iran's response at that point appears limited to MAD.
Thanks for the first rate analysis NO 1. Like the Vietnamese demonstrated, if you absorb the pain long enough, the colonialists will finally be forced to declare "victory" and leave. I read a book long ago, by an author/title I can't remember, who interviewed a Viet Cong general at the close of the American War. The VC general told the American journalist that Vietnam could absorb the loss of ten of their people for every American killed. He said that they could do this forever. He knew that the Americans would NOT tolerate even this loss ratio, as daunting as the numbers were for the Vietnamese. The Americans would finally cut bait and move on to some other imperial shit-show. After all, the Vietnamese, like the Iranians were NOT going ANYWHERE.
We Americans like things loud, shiny and sweet. Some of us even dwell on the meretricious "beauty" of golden curtains and toilet details. The Americans can no longer even run an NFL game without going all fake and gay with their "half-time" third world diorama delivered by a flouncing poodle walker from another colonial outpost. Plus the absurd military over-flight. Both Pedo-Don and Bibi belong in prison. They reflect how far the Western idea/narrative has fallen. Pedo-Don is capable of delivering bluster and bigly ridiculous homilies. The Chinese and Russians are too formidable and their fate hinges on how this present dust-up is put to sleep. I think the Iranians will prevail in the end. Badly damaged, but victorious. With a little help from their Muslim brothers plus the Russians and Chinese. Additionally, the big money, green eyeshade class won't tolerate their financial interests vanishing for the benefit of Pedo-Don, the rodeo clown. They are the final arbiters for the Klepto-West.
Certainly way back in Stanley Karnow's 1983 television documentary about the U.S. phase of the Vietnam War, there was interview footage of Vo Nguyen Giap wearing his PAVN version of French colonial uniformes tropicaux... The interviewer repeated a claim from a highly-decorated U.S. serviceman that the "VC" and the "NVA" had lost every battle with U.S. forces, yet outlasted the U.S. and won the war. Giap took a drag of a cigarette and said something to the effect of: "It is true that I was defeated many times. But I was never _vanquished_."
Outstanding analysis of the scenarios 'on offer' but not thought through. Just one example: blockading the Straits of Malacca. Do the proponents not realise that both Malaysia and Indonesia are part of the Umma, i.e. islamic countries? Do they really think that these countries would take such 'power demonstration' lying down, with a whimper?
Anyway, for me this sentence is the best analysis of 'that blockade': "Two bouncers, same door, opposite guest lists." - brilliant!
While that may be a popular sentiment amongst the general public of those countries - the leaders of said countries are likely owned and controlled just as much as ours are. ((They)) are playing for keeps, and likely thought of this scenario.
Just to prove my point - how many of those countries did anything to stop the Gaza genocide (other than some sternly worded statements). I myself thought surely there would be some response - at least a blockage of some sorts against the Zionists…… nope.
How many of those “ummah” countries have central banks and deal in interest, which is expressively forbidden in Islam - it’s a sin as bad as murder.
Oh wait, they all have central banks and deal in interest. That’s because they had globohomo coupes a long time ago, and thus the leadership is all compromised.
Indonesia is close to, or has already, signed an agreement with USA war Dept, which will result in full aerial monitoring over Indonesia's air/sea space... southern half of the SoM.
Dunno... Seems to me that the history of "Christian brotherhood" is rather reflected in some sort of ostensible "unity of the Muslim Umma..." Just sayin'... GCC vs. Iran, Sunni vs. Shia, "the beat goes on..."
Berletic also says setting up a secondary blockade in Malacca is in the cards. The deployment would be Marines with anti-ship missiles based on islands through out the area. They would be mobile. Shoot and Scoot.
At the same time though, he points out that the logistics plan hasn't been thoroughly considered.
Whatever, we need to recognize that China is the "ultimate enemy" that must be defeated. Iran is just a way of hurting China.
Hormuz is just another episode of WW III. News Broke that the US could choke Malacca two in coordination with Indonesia. This is the maritime blockade China was preparing to since the Belt and Road initicative was launched. In the meantime, the US has achieved to beat oil export records and regain the dollar position linked to the oil world monopoly. That, the re-industrialitation of the country by weapons manufacturing and the opening of crypto as legal tender are the three pillars of the Trump's bunch strategy. Forget about the daily comedy and PR stunts. What matters is the rearrangement of the world ressources and political alliances that will be rolled out by this policy of winners and losers.
What we can see is that the GCC are on the loser side. Trump is ready to sacrifice them. Dubai is dead as the showcase example of what postnational globalism meant. Kuwait has ceased to fulfill its delivering contracts invoking force majeure. Qatar or Bahrein are in no better shape and we could see these vassal sheikdoms going through major political changes.
Israel has/had big plans with the GCC in order to become the central trading point between Europe and India, other two big losers abandonned by the US. The globalist are too to be counted among the losing side. China will necessarily ha e to adapt to oil scarcity and maritime strangulation, meaning the age of cheap Amazon just in time Chinese manufacturing is over, hitting hard the globalist corporations to which China is the most important production source and market. For the time being, the luxe industry LMVH has been hit hard at the stock market. Apple, Volkswagen, and others are claiming significant losses in their Chinese businesses.
Another losers: Africa and South America, where Chinese investment has resulted in infrastructure building and a higher participation in world trade.
So, there are many losers. Are there any winners?
First, the US, which are reconfiguring their strategic operational space. Of course the GCC was a major investment and financial source for Wall Street and the political mafia in the US, but the oil cartel and Silicon Valley's interest prevailed, notwithstanding some unrest could break the fragile American political scheme. Then Iran, which was on the verge of suffocation prior to the war, having solved its prowestern infiltration, and substantially reduced the Israeli threat and domination of the region. Irak too is another winner, ousting the US occupation of the country in the span of a few weeks. Then, Russia has been able to loose the noose on its neck, resuming oil (and other commodities) exports at double prices to the world. Japan, Sri Lanka, India are signing Russian oil contracts as we speak. The Hormuz war has had Russia make tens of billions of dollars (or its translation in yuans).
And China? Well, the Belt and Road or BRICS didnt achieve their ambitious goals. India or Brasil proved to be a too weak a partner. Now its the end of an expansion age. China will have to focus in the Asian heartland integration, including 6 counties (Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Mongolia and Kazakhstan, possibly a handful more like Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan or Vietnam that will not be able to ignore such a powerful block's influence) and proactively and kineticly defend it. The age of ghost policies is over for China.
Having observed the political elites of the EU and the US for years, I have come to the conclusion that both the puppets placed by the true rulers of the Western world in positions as beloved national leaders, and the rulers themselves, are becoming increasingly stupid, more narcissistic and greedy. Whether this is the result of so-called inbreeding, caused by marriages within a small gene pool leading to increasing mental deficiency, or whether they are a reflection of society as a whole, I do not know; but in this situation, the ancient cultures of the East have secured first place in human civilisation.
I have no doubt who they are or to which master they offer their prayers, but don’t you notice that their lies and manipulations are becoming increasingly crude – it’s almost unbelievable, not to mention the daily changes to their story and the fact that they contradict what they said yesterday. Deliberately sowing information chaos is one thing, but the level of propaganda is sinking to new lows, and if they’re putting something like this out there, it means they consider it credible.
They don’t have a concept of “credibility.” They are propagandists - their statements are “signaling,” aka lying. They tell us what they want us to believe, not what is factual.
I was on the edge of my seat. A real “who-done-it”. A nod to Margaret Rutherford. Bless her. I watched her as a lad.
Ukraine is a forever war too. The USA told the EU to spend 5% of GDP and build and army while we tackle Iran and China. Just keep the war going and “we’ll be back..real soon”. Thats is being translated into NATO is being demolished. Meanwhile the USA keeps the lights ON in Ukraine and is picking up the tab for Civil Service salaries and Ukrainian State Pensions and welfare.
They dont need to beat Russia, they just need to keep her bogged down. That worked in Syria. The Russians couldn’t help as they had a war to fight. The collapse of Syria was essential to provide an air corridor in order to launch attacks at Iran.
Americans are the world’s scum-bags They talk with both sides of their mouth. Americans are snakes.
Apparently the Iranian team that met Kushner and the other goon took various travel precautions on the way back from the meeting to thwart another USA assassination.
The jewkranus debacle is the other way around: Russia is slowly grinding the combined military and financial assets of EU+NATO+Jewkranus at a dead ratio of 35 to 1000 (as the last body exchange). By now EU+NATO have no military gear, nor cash left to pump into Ukraine, while the meat bots are dying at a rate of ~30K/mo. When the last anti-russian meatbots will be pushing daisies, Russia will waltz elegantly to the HU and Poland border while NATO's only option will be to write a sternly worded tweet.
Very good , well thought through realistic and in a strange kind of way its heartening to see that someone cares about the truth instead of the constant USA we have won we have won we have won nonsense.
13 days is nonsense too , im just thinking so many people on both sides and on so many of the ships will have a finger on the trigger , how long will it be before someone pulls the trigger and sets off a battle mid sea , not long id say and once that happens for the first time it will escalate because nobody is going to pack up their stuff and go home least of all Iran because they are already home.
Although I can’t comment on options or probability, it occurs to me that when the war goes hot again, there could be some very heavy hitting actions on either side
Well they sure as hell aren’t deploying all those combat troops for nothing. They definitely know that a ground operation to secure the straight is needed - blockading the blockade is obviously a temporary measure until they can more definitively control the straight.
While Iran may be Israel’s mobey dick, China is the USA’s. Denying China access to iran (& gulf) energy is far more important than denying Iran’s ability to continue existing. This also ties into the claims of false flags against Arab energy infrastructure. We’re also seeing Australian refineries mysteriously set ablaze.
In addition, everyone needs to understand - the people running the show want and need higher energy prices and especially higher inflation - it’s what allows them to debase the currency to reduce the relative debt loads. It serves so many interests of theirs, while also enriching quite a few oligarchs. Trump is the same guy who presided over operation warp speed, which saw the largest expansion of the monetary supply in history - that whole debacle wasn’t an accident either.
The only thing us pheasants can do is buy assets and become more isolated from the global markets on a personal level.
I'm not so sure that the 'forever war' scenario only benefits Bibi. While Trump may not have any current prosecutions he would like to forestall, he certainly has the upcoming midterms he would like to either delay or cancel entirely under the guise of a "national emergency"--no matter that it's one he himself created.
An extremely unlikely scenario. Not even a Republican congress would go for it. I know of no case where the US did NOT hold elections.
There are 2 types of TDS, the derangement type and the deification type. I find both a bit repugnant. As regards the man himself, if certain leaks are to be believed he is in the early stages of Alzheimer's.
I don't think we need "certain leaks" to establish white matter disease and lunacy, frankly. I mean the idle speculation of the idol has him sh**ting himself in public...
First demented and depraved Biden, now Trump. Kamala Harris spoke of the U.S. militiary's "lethality" so too Hegseth. The Brookings Institute "Which path to Persia?" recipe list is decades old. The "Axis of Evil" speech and plans to remake the Middle East is similarly mighty old, going back to the turn of the 21st century.
We're being sold the Iran War as necessary to preserve Israel's nuclear monopoly in the Levant. What's happening is an ongoing permanent Israeli war to ethnically cleanse Palestine, extend national borders, "create facts on the ground" and undermine any potential adversary while Balkanizing the remnants. Land of the apostle; fuel of the fossil...
We can go back to the end of WW1 if you really want to. I've felt for some time that we've been dealing with the aftermath of the collapse of various 19th/20th century empires as a result of WW1. All this would fit with Agenda 2030 as well. I based my cautious comment on people such as Robert Barnes and Alex Jones. Barnes claims contacts inside the White House. As I have no way to verify any of this, I called it all "leaks to be believed", so to speak.
WWI: Death of Ottoman Empire--MENE, conrol of oil, UK in Iran, WWII-era campaigns, postwar "Cold War" Turkey, Israel, Iran after 1953, all Israel all the time from post-1967...
Death of Russian Empire--resuscitation after Bolshevik triumph in Civil War. Before then, Austro-Hungarian and German troops in Ukraine, Petliura, etc. Downfall of Soviet Union atop Russian Empire: Central Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Nato expansion.
Death of Austro-Hungarin Empire--central and Eastern Europe, Balkans, Yugoslavia, etc.
Rise and fall of Italian colonial Empire: Libya 1911-2011, Somalia, onset of Mussolini and squadrismo, invasion of Ethiopia, collapse into civil war only Italians seemed to notice it seems.
British Empire: mortgaged to the U.S. WWII, process accelerates. De-colonization after WWII, hand-off to USA with Greece, emphasized by Eisenhower reaction to 1956 Suez crisis... Poodlehood since.
Death of German Empire: Weimar and all that. Rise of Nazism and attempt to colonize eastern Europe and Russia to the Urals.
I agree unlikely to work. That doesn't mean it's not a motivation for him to want to try. He's cornered, desperate, and not exactly known for being informed by reasoned argument. After all, no previous president whipped up an angry mob of his supporters to try to overturn a decided election before, either.
“I keep coming back to that. The architecture of this conflict increasingly looks like it was not designed to be won. It was designed to not end.”
Or, it was designed to destroy the United States as a superpower. Bibi’s reading list included “Jews vs. Rome.”
“The blockade is not genius. Genius would have been not starting this war in the first place, when the strait was open and oil was $70.”
Not genius in any case, but if it really had to be fought, why not after the mid-terms.
Daily Mail as limited hangout?
Trump's Department of War 'not being honest' about scale of damage from Iran conflict as satellite images lay bare billions of dollars worth of equipment losses, claims new Daily Mail show
I realise most of this is known to most of those who read pages like yours, but the DM is putting it out in front of folks who otherwise couldn’t be bothered to pay attention. It’s a way for the Brit government to day, “Look, the Yanks are having their asses handed to them, this is why we’re staying out.”
The only humans who want unending war are the billionaires and corporations who benefit financially. It's all about money and power and to hell with the sheep whose benefits and livelihood are diminished. Great article, as always.
Doesn't Trump have to get approval from Congress to keep going after another two weeks? Congress won't approve this continued action unless there is a big attack on our assets like a ship going down in my opinion. Maybe Israel will try a false flag or something to get cogressional approval. Also, it seems we only have enough firepower for one last big attack, then what do we do? Is Iran's best move now to just delay things, stay low. Thoughts?
Yesterday, Wendesday 15 April U.S. Senate voted 52-47 on Wednesday to reject a motion to move a Democratic Party-sponsored joint resolution to the floor that would mandate the removal of US troops, “from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.”
So much for the vaunted "power of the purse." U.S. Constitution gives Congress the sole power to declare war. Congress says "nah."
The War Powers Resolution has been dead since '73. Wednesday just confirmed nobody's checking the pulse.
What gets me is the distinction between failing and not trying. Congress had the one constitutional tool designed for exactly this moment. They voted against even considering it.
Scenario next number: John Michael Greer: 2014: "Twilight's Last Gleaming"
A US aircraft carrier winds up burning on a sand bar after trying to keep the Chinese from exploiting an oil find it contracted for off Tanzania. China decides this is it: China blinds the US satellites, the carrier gets hit by missiles launched from cargo containers stored in the Tanzanian port. China captures Diego Garcia, gets nuked by the US on Hainan Island. US logistics impossibilities doom the whole show. Ultimately a US domestic crisis winds up coughing up a Consitutional Convention. The federal union is dissolved.
Thanks, but I think the Chinese prefer more subtle ways to win their wars. Wasn't it Tzu who said something like the battle not fought is the battle won?
They keep beating the drum about the blockade of the blockade, without mentioning that ONLY a few sanctioned vessels owned by the Chinese passed through both ways. So the US "blockade" has no teeth whatsoever, as it is fake and gay to keep oil futures down.
Great analysis 👌
Again one fact begs to be recognized, which is that there is seemingly no awareness by our decision-makers that the oil market is a GLOBAL market. The belief apparently persists that our moves can be fine-tuned to affect only selected parties, while leaving the rest of the world untouched. But as the world economy devours almost everything it is capable of pumping at this point in history, major reductions in supply coming from ANYWHERE will ripple throughout the globe as buyers raise their bids to pull down what they need from other sources.
And now we are talking about semi-permanent impacts on world oil supply, like that you mention which occurs when pumping stops. We seem to hope this will happen in Iran, and that Iran alone will be affected. But this will have a GLOBAL, semi-permanent impact, not limited to Iran alone.
Interesting that the damaging effects of similar pump-stopping in the other gulf countries is never discussed. (Recall that some other countries also have full storage and had to stop pumping.) All of this damage is accumulating, as is the damage from the bombing of gas fields, etc.
Indulge in a bit of theorizing here. One possibility: Perhaps in our ignorance, we believe that shutting off this supply long term is beneficial for us because it will drive the world toward oil markets we control (North America, Venezuela, etc.). Trump et all seem to believe we have a bottomless supply. They might be that stupid.
Another possibility, even more far out: What if the real object of this whole exercise (the war, that is) is to be another exercise in forcing down global fossil fuel consumption, as the climate change floggers, the WEF, and the rest of the Epstein Class have espoused? Stage 1 was COVID, a demand shock to shut down the global economy. Stage 2 was the Ukraine War, blowing up of NordStream, cutting off most imports from Russia, etc., a man-made supply shock. Stage 3 we have now, another made-made supply shock. The permanent destruction of supply forces things.
Yes, crazy, I know, but all these "global" events seem to have a common thread.
I see the whole thing as setting up for Agenda 2030 as well. Slowly strangle the populations of the west. Follow up with big brother providing everything life needs to survive. Enter social credit system and then deny anyone access that doesn't follow the script. Three more years to starve out the non compliers and then close everything. My argument from forty plus years ago was and still is; you think the powers that be will allow the plebs the last drips of oil to be burnt, on their Sunday drives, while their militaries and militarized police forces run dry? Think again.
Please, I had understood this comment section as a space for serious, adult discussions. Agenda 2030 lunatic conspiracies should have no place here. Not everything happening out there is part of a multi-layered super-secret dark conspiracy. Actually, the real "conspiracies" by the economic and political powers are usually carried out in broad daylight, like most of the world agreeing to surrender a decent chunk of our personal freedoms after 9/11 because terrorism (as if terrorism was invented by Bin Laden or something).
Um, it seems as though the conspiracy of a digital control grid is happening in broad daylight.
I don’t think I’ll be claimed that everything happening out there is a super secret dark conspiracy although you seem to think that what’s your point exactly
the "last drips of oil?"
we are already long past the "peak oil" doomsday scenario, just another phony like all the others
True but in a different way. The world isn't running out of oil. It is running out of cheap, easy to extract oil. The tar sands of Alberta and Venezuela are massive but require a lot of post mining processing costing approximately $50-60 a barrel break even point. Iran, Russia, Arabian peninsula are about $10-20 break even.
Yes, EROEI approaching 1. The tar sands, etc. are about 1.1, not to mention how environmentally destructive they are compared to conventional wells.
Food supply. Let's not forget about it. Beef at all time highs in price. Cattle (at least in the US) at all time lows.
In the last several years there have been "mysterious fires" at chicken houses and processing plants.
The Iran war has also created a twofer -- fertilizer for planting this years crops has been drastically curtailed and the cost of diesel has kept commercial fishing vessels in port as well as keeping many farmers on the sidelines.
As the old sea captain says "There be a big storm a comin'"
I am sure that shutting off fuel supplies and forcing people to move to EV or do without personal transportation is a goal or at least "desirable" side effect of this charade
Here is a Scenario 7:
The Horizontal Escalation:
While the Hormuz blockade grinds on, a more insidious pressure spreads. Record cargoes of American diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel—some 240,000 metric tons loaded in March alone by ExxonMobil, BP, and Vitol from the U.S. Gulf Coast—steam across the Pacific on 30–40 day voyages to Australia, meant to cushion allies from Middle Eastern disruption.
In this lane, Iran and proxies strike asymmetrically. At Gulf of Mexico Coast terminals, a tanker erupts in flames during loading, sending black smoke over Houston. In the Panama Canal corridor, small craft sink in the approaches, delaying transits. Far out in the open Pacific and into the Coral Sea, low-signature sailing vessels release remotely piloted loitering munitions from dozens of miles away. A near-miss on an outbound tanker produces viral footage of fire on the water and frantic radio calls.
The emotional toll strikes hardest at home. Americans see their “reliable” energy lifeline—projected as a strategic strength—suddenly appear vulnerable. Insurance premiums surge, pump prices climb, and voices in Washington demand overstretched naval assets return to defend the homeland. Iran delivers no decisive blow, yet the narrative fractures: even the world’s premier energy exporter cannot fully secure its own arteries.
Panic grows not from total halt but from the creeping fear that the oceans, long America’s moat, have become contested gray zones.
I think you make a very good point. If the US interdicts vessels on the high seas that earlier left Iranian ports, (which is an act of war) why wouldn't Iran effectively do the same to vessels that leave US ports? Iran's means of doing so would be different of course, but the consequence not the means is what matters. And it's not just the vessels that are vulnerable. The port infrastructure for oil transfer would be highly susceptible to sabotage. If that gets hit then ten million bpd of US petroleum exports goes up in a cloud of smoke.
Beyond Trump's bluster, the concept of stopping ships on the high seas would surely be very difficult, while the possibility for retaliation by Iran against US vessels and infrastructure would be high.
Iran is paid for cargo before leaving, so if vessels are interdicted on high seas it becomes the cargo-owners problem not Iran's. If such piracy on the high seas was to occur, I'd say the owners of China-bound oil might phone a friend to help them out of their troubles.
Petrol products exported from the USA are products removed from the US market, driving up the prices of those that remain in the US market. There will be some demand destruction, but the uptick in prices will inevitably lead US politicians to ban exports. “Sorry, Mate.”
The gadfly strategy that you describe is very plausible, but maybe not yet do-able by Iran alone. There are others who could, help or supply the enabling tech, but we are some way from that yet... many other options ahead. I think we might more likely see China buy oil in Yuan, with Iran being the first bidder. After paying for and loading the oil, China will announce escort of the cargoes in some way. If USA then bombs the remaining Iranian loading terminals, China gets one shipload and the blockade has no further purpose. Iran's response at that point appears limited to MAD.
Thanks for the first rate analysis NO 1. Like the Vietnamese demonstrated, if you absorb the pain long enough, the colonialists will finally be forced to declare "victory" and leave. I read a book long ago, by an author/title I can't remember, who interviewed a Viet Cong general at the close of the American War. The VC general told the American journalist that Vietnam could absorb the loss of ten of their people for every American killed. He said that they could do this forever. He knew that the Americans would NOT tolerate even this loss ratio, as daunting as the numbers were for the Vietnamese. The Americans would finally cut bait and move on to some other imperial shit-show. After all, the Vietnamese, like the Iranians were NOT going ANYWHERE.
We Americans like things loud, shiny and sweet. Some of us even dwell on the meretricious "beauty" of golden curtains and toilet details. The Americans can no longer even run an NFL game without going all fake and gay with their "half-time" third world diorama delivered by a flouncing poodle walker from another colonial outpost. Plus the absurd military over-flight. Both Pedo-Don and Bibi belong in prison. They reflect how far the Western idea/narrative has fallen. Pedo-Don is capable of delivering bluster and bigly ridiculous homilies. The Chinese and Russians are too formidable and their fate hinges on how this present dust-up is put to sleep. I think the Iranians will prevail in the end. Badly damaged, but victorious. With a little help from their Muslim brothers plus the Russians and Chinese. Additionally, the big money, green eyeshade class won't tolerate their financial interests vanishing for the benefit of Pedo-Don, the rodeo clown. They are the final arbiters for the Klepto-West.
Wasn't it the Afghans that said: The Americans, they have watches. We have time.
Certainly way back in Stanley Karnow's 1983 television documentary about the U.S. phase of the Vietnam War, there was interview footage of Vo Nguyen Giap wearing his PAVN version of French colonial uniformes tropicaux... The interviewer repeated a claim from a highly-decorated U.S. serviceman that the "VC" and the "NVA" had lost every battle with U.S. forces, yet outlasted the U.S. and won the war. Giap took a drag of a cigarette and said something to the effect of: "It is true that I was defeated many times. But I was never _vanquished_."
Absolutely brilliant as usual. This is why I'm a paid subscriber. Thank you so much.
Outstanding analysis of the scenarios 'on offer' but not thought through. Just one example: blockading the Straits of Malacca. Do the proponents not realise that both Malaysia and Indonesia are part of the Umma, i.e. islamic countries? Do they really think that these countries would take such 'power demonstration' lying down, with a whimper?
Anyway, for me this sentence is the best analysis of 'that blockade': "Two bouncers, same door, opposite guest lists." - brilliant!
Thanks, there are indeed a LOT of potential currents at play here. Much more than I could write down in the short time I had.
Maybe I will revisit this in the future when I have had more time to think, or when events surpass any analysis.
While that may be a popular sentiment amongst the general public of those countries - the leaders of said countries are likely owned and controlled just as much as ours are. ((They)) are playing for keeps, and likely thought of this scenario.
Just to prove my point - how many of those countries did anything to stop the Gaza genocide (other than some sternly worded statements). I myself thought surely there would be some response - at least a blockage of some sorts against the Zionists…… nope.
How many of those “ummah” countries have central banks and deal in interest, which is expressively forbidden in Islam - it’s a sin as bad as murder.
Oh wait, they all have central banks and deal in interest. That’s because they had globohomo coupes a long time ago, and thus the leadership is all compromised.
Indonesia is close to, or has already, signed an agreement with USA war Dept, which will result in full aerial monitoring over Indonesia's air/sea space... southern half of the SoM.
Dunno... Seems to me that the history of "Christian brotherhood" is rather reflected in some sort of ostensible "unity of the Muslim Umma..." Just sayin'... GCC vs. Iran, Sunni vs. Shia, "the beat goes on..."
If George VI had truly been the Defender of the Faith, the Holy Lands would today be a religious neutral territory and not the modern state of Israel.
The roads to most of the world’s problems run from the City of London.
Berletic also says setting up a secondary blockade in Malacca is in the cards. The deployment would be Marines with anti-ship missiles based on islands through out the area. They would be mobile. Shoot and Scoot.
At the same time though, he points out that the logistics plan hasn't been thoroughly considered.
Whatever, we need to recognize that China is the "ultimate enemy" that must be defeated. Iran is just a way of hurting China.
Hormuz is just another episode of WW III. News Broke that the US could choke Malacca two in coordination with Indonesia. This is the maritime blockade China was preparing to since the Belt and Road initicative was launched. In the meantime, the US has achieved to beat oil export records and regain the dollar position linked to the oil world monopoly. That, the re-industrialitation of the country by weapons manufacturing and the opening of crypto as legal tender are the three pillars of the Trump's bunch strategy. Forget about the daily comedy and PR stunts. What matters is the rearrangement of the world ressources and political alliances that will be rolled out by this policy of winners and losers.
What we can see is that the GCC are on the loser side. Trump is ready to sacrifice them. Dubai is dead as the showcase example of what postnational globalism meant. Kuwait has ceased to fulfill its delivering contracts invoking force majeure. Qatar or Bahrein are in no better shape and we could see these vassal sheikdoms going through major political changes.
Israel has/had big plans with the GCC in order to become the central trading point between Europe and India, other two big losers abandonned by the US. The globalist are too to be counted among the losing side. China will necessarily ha e to adapt to oil scarcity and maritime strangulation, meaning the age of cheap Amazon just in time Chinese manufacturing is over, hitting hard the globalist corporations to which China is the most important production source and market. For the time being, the luxe industry LMVH has been hit hard at the stock market. Apple, Volkswagen, and others are claiming significant losses in their Chinese businesses.
Another losers: Africa and South America, where Chinese investment has resulted in infrastructure building and a higher participation in world trade.
So, there are many losers. Are there any winners?
First, the US, which are reconfiguring their strategic operational space. Of course the GCC was a major investment and financial source for Wall Street and the political mafia in the US, but the oil cartel and Silicon Valley's interest prevailed, notwithstanding some unrest could break the fragile American political scheme. Then Iran, which was on the verge of suffocation prior to the war, having solved its prowestern infiltration, and substantially reduced the Israeli threat and domination of the region. Irak too is another winner, ousting the US occupation of the country in the span of a few weeks. Then, Russia has been able to loose the noose on its neck, resuming oil (and other commodities) exports at double prices to the world. Japan, Sri Lanka, India are signing Russian oil contracts as we speak. The Hormuz war has had Russia make tens of billions of dollars (or its translation in yuans).
And China? Well, the Belt and Road or BRICS didnt achieve their ambitious goals. India or Brasil proved to be a too weak a partner. Now its the end of an expansion age. China will have to focus in the Asian heartland integration, including 6 counties (Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Mongolia and Kazakhstan, possibly a handful more like Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan or Vietnam that will not be able to ignore such a powerful block's influence) and proactively and kineticly defend it. The age of ghost policies is over for China.
Having observed the political elites of the EU and the US for years, I have come to the conclusion that both the puppets placed by the true rulers of the Western world in positions as beloved national leaders, and the rulers themselves, are becoming increasingly stupid, more narcissistic and greedy. Whether this is the result of so-called inbreeding, caused by marriages within a small gene pool leading to increasing mental deficiency, or whether they are a reflection of society as a whole, I do not know; but in this situation, the ancient cultures of the East have secured first place in human civilisation.
They’re not stupid - they’re evil. Most just think they are stupid because they assume the leaders have good intentions - they don’t.
It’s vital not to mistake malfeasance for mere incompetence
I have no doubt who they are or to which master they offer their prayers, but don’t you notice that their lies and manipulations are becoming increasingly crude – it’s almost unbelievable, not to mention the daily changes to their story and the fact that they contradict what they said yesterday. Deliberately sowing information chaos is one thing, but the level of propaganda is sinking to new lows, and if they’re putting something like this out there, it means they consider it credible.
They don’t have a concept of “credibility.” They are propagandists - their statements are “signaling,” aka lying. They tell us what they want us to believe, not what is factual.
Everyone in their right mind knows this, but the level of their lies has now sunk to nursery school level; mentally, they’re like six-year-olds
Much like I once noted here: https://no01.substack.com/p/theyre-not-even-trying-anymore
Sorry, I haven’t read it, but Mahatma Gandhi comes to mind: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"
Ziohedge comments that the situation makes the USA an obvious winner, as it exports petroleum products.
Problem is, the USA remains a net importer of crude. The surplus is in petroleum distillates and natural gas.
If the USA exports in any quantity, what will that do to domestic energy prices and availability?
I'm not impressed with the forethought of America's leaders.
About that supposedly energy independence: https://no01.substack.com/p/americas-energy-independence
I was on the edge of my seat. A real “who-done-it”. A nod to Margaret Rutherford. Bless her. I watched her as a lad.
Ukraine is a forever war too. The USA told the EU to spend 5% of GDP and build and army while we tackle Iran and China. Just keep the war going and “we’ll be back..real soon”. Thats is being translated into NATO is being demolished. Meanwhile the USA keeps the lights ON in Ukraine and is picking up the tab for Civil Service salaries and Ukrainian State Pensions and welfare.
They dont need to beat Russia, they just need to keep her bogged down. That worked in Syria. The Russians couldn’t help as they had a war to fight. The collapse of Syria was essential to provide an air corridor in order to launch attacks at Iran.
Americans are the world’s scum-bags They talk with both sides of their mouth. Americans are snakes.
Apparently the Iranian team that met Kushner and the other goon took various travel precautions on the way back from the meeting to thwart another USA assassination.
"they don't need to beat Russia"
Never go full retard. Not even on the internet.
The jewkranus debacle is the other way around: Russia is slowly grinding the combined military and financial assets of EU+NATO+Jewkranus at a dead ratio of 35 to 1000 (as the last body exchange). By now EU+NATO have no military gear, nor cash left to pump into Ukraine, while the meat bots are dying at a rate of ~30K/mo. When the last anti-russian meatbots will be pushing daisies, Russia will waltz elegantly to the HU and Poland border while NATO's only option will be to write a sternly worded tweet.
Very good , well thought through realistic and in a strange kind of way its heartening to see that someone cares about the truth instead of the constant USA we have won we have won we have won nonsense.
13 days is nonsense too , im just thinking so many people on both sides and on so many of the ships will have a finger on the trigger , how long will it be before someone pulls the trigger and sets off a battle mid sea , not long id say and once that happens for the first time it will escalate because nobody is going to pack up their stuff and go home least of all Iran because they are already home.
Although I can’t comment on options or probability, it occurs to me that when the war goes hot again, there could be some very heavy hitting actions on either side
Well they sure as hell aren’t deploying all those combat troops for nothing. They definitely know that a ground operation to secure the straight is needed - blockading the blockade is obviously a temporary measure until they can more definitively control the straight.
While Iran may be Israel’s mobey dick, China is the USA’s. Denying China access to iran (& gulf) energy is far more important than denying Iran’s ability to continue existing. This also ties into the claims of false flags against Arab energy infrastructure. We’re also seeing Australian refineries mysteriously set ablaze.
In addition, everyone needs to understand - the people running the show want and need higher energy prices and especially higher inflation - it’s what allows them to debase the currency to reduce the relative debt loads. It serves so many interests of theirs, while also enriching quite a few oligarchs. Trump is the same guy who presided over operation warp speed, which saw the largest expansion of the monetary supply in history - that whole debacle wasn’t an accident either.
The only thing us pheasants can do is buy assets and become more isolated from the global markets on a personal level.
Who are you calling a pheasant?
🙋♂️
I'm not so sure that the 'forever war' scenario only benefits Bibi. While Trump may not have any current prosecutions he would like to forestall, he certainly has the upcoming midterms he would like to either delay or cancel entirely under the guise of a "national emergency"--no matter that it's one he himself created.
An extremely unlikely scenario. Not even a Republican congress would go for it. I know of no case where the US did NOT hold elections.
There are 2 types of TDS, the derangement type and the deification type. I find both a bit repugnant. As regards the man himself, if certain leaks are to be believed he is in the early stages of Alzheimer's.
That is a brilliant insight the letter D can stand for several things
As such, the orange man is also a great social engineering device false hope on one side hatred on the other
Janus? Hatred is corrosive, hope was the last gift of Pandora's box. Ultimately hate only serves those already in power (well, usually).
I don't think we need "certain leaks" to establish white matter disease and lunacy, frankly. I mean the idle speculation of the idol has him sh**ting himself in public...
First demented and depraved Biden, now Trump. Kamala Harris spoke of the U.S. militiary's "lethality" so too Hegseth. The Brookings Institute "Which path to Persia?" recipe list is decades old. The "Axis of Evil" speech and plans to remake the Middle East is similarly mighty old, going back to the turn of the 21st century.
We're being sold the Iran War as necessary to preserve Israel's nuclear monopoly in the Levant. What's happening is an ongoing permanent Israeli war to ethnically cleanse Palestine, extend national borders, "create facts on the ground" and undermine any potential adversary while Balkanizing the remnants. Land of the apostle; fuel of the fossil...
We can go back to the end of WW1 if you really want to. I've felt for some time that we've been dealing with the aftermath of the collapse of various 19th/20th century empires as a result of WW1. All this would fit with Agenda 2030 as well. I based my cautious comment on people such as Robert Barnes and Alex Jones. Barnes claims contacts inside the White House. As I have no way to verify any of this, I called it all "leaks to be believed", so to speak.
WWI: Death of Ottoman Empire--MENE, conrol of oil, UK in Iran, WWII-era campaigns, postwar "Cold War" Turkey, Israel, Iran after 1953, all Israel all the time from post-1967...
Death of Russian Empire--resuscitation after Bolshevik triumph in Civil War. Before then, Austro-Hungarian and German troops in Ukraine, Petliura, etc. Downfall of Soviet Union atop Russian Empire: Central Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Nato expansion.
Death of Austro-Hungarin Empire--central and Eastern Europe, Balkans, Yugoslavia, etc.
Rise and fall of Italian colonial Empire: Libya 1911-2011, Somalia, onset of Mussolini and squadrismo, invasion of Ethiopia, collapse into civil war only Italians seemed to notice it seems.
British Empire: mortgaged to the U.S. WWII, process accelerates. De-colonization after WWII, hand-off to USA with Greece, emphasized by Eisenhower reaction to 1956 Suez crisis... Poodlehood since.
Death of German Empire: Weimar and all that. Rise of Nazism and attempt to colonize eastern Europe and Russia to the Urals.
I agree unlikely to work. That doesn't mean it's not a motivation for him to want to try. He's cornered, desperate, and not exactly known for being informed by reasoned argument. After all, no previous president whipped up an angry mob of his supporters to try to overturn a decided election before, either.
“I keep coming back to that. The architecture of this conflict increasingly looks like it was not designed to be won. It was designed to not end.”
Or, it was designed to destroy the United States as a superpower. Bibi’s reading list included “Jews vs. Rome.”
“The blockade is not genius. Genius would have been not starting this war in the first place, when the strait was open and oil was $70.”
Not genius in any case, but if it really had to be fought, why not after the mid-terms.
Daily Mail as limited hangout?
Trump's Department of War 'not being honest' about scale of damage from Iran conflict as satellite images lay bare billions of dollars worth of equipment losses, claims new Daily Mail show
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15735687/iran-war-damage-department-war-satellite-images-losses-photo-evidence.html
You don't need the DM for that 😔. OSINT works better - and much faster. 😂
I realise most of this is known to most of those who read pages like yours, but the DM is putting it out in front of folks who otherwise couldn’t be bothered to pay attention. It’s a way for the Brit government to day, “Look, the Yanks are having their asses handed to them, this is why we’re staying out.”
Good point indeed!
The only humans who want unending war are the billionaires and corporations who benefit financially. It's all about money and power and to hell with the sheep whose benefits and livelihood are diminished. Great article, as always.
Doesn't Trump have to get approval from Congress to keep going after another two weeks? Congress won't approve this continued action unless there is a big attack on our assets like a ship going down in my opinion. Maybe Israel will try a false flag or something to get cogressional approval. Also, it seems we only have enough firepower for one last big attack, then what do we do? Is Iran's best move now to just delay things, stay low. Thoughts?
The democrats braying about trumps handling of Iran are upset that he isn’t winning good enough, not that we’re at war with Iran.
Congress just voted against a measure to reduce arms sales to Israel today….
Yesterday, Wendesday 15 April U.S. Senate voted 52-47 on Wednesday to reject a motion to move a Democratic Party-sponsored joint resolution to the floor that would mandate the removal of US troops, “from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.”
So much for the vaunted "power of the purse." U.S. Constitution gives Congress the sole power to declare war. Congress says "nah."
Yeah, I saw that vote come through.
The War Powers Resolution has been dead since '73. Wednesday just confirmed nobody's checking the pulse.
What gets me is the distinction between failing and not trying. Congress had the one constitutional tool designed for exactly this moment. They voted against even considering it.
Scenario next number: John Michael Greer: 2014: "Twilight's Last Gleaming"
A US aircraft carrier winds up burning on a sand bar after trying to keep the Chinese from exploiting an oil find it contracted for off Tanzania. China decides this is it: China blinds the US satellites, the carrier gets hit by missiles launched from cargo containers stored in the Tanzanian port. China captures Diego Garcia, gets nuked by the US on Hainan Island. US logistics impossibilities doom the whole show. Ultimately a US domestic crisis winds up coughing up a Consitutional Convention. The federal union is dissolved.
Thanks, but I think the Chinese prefer more subtle ways to win their wars. Wasn't it Tzu who said something like the battle not fought is the battle won?
ZioHedge hasbecome just another MIGA mouthpiece.
They keep beating the drum about the blockade of the blockade, without mentioning that ONLY a few sanctioned vessels owned by the Chinese passed through both ways. So the US "blockade" has no teeth whatsoever, as it is fake and gay to keep oil futures down.
Apparently, you haven’t taken advantage of the ignore feature
Great book and well worth a read! 😊 👍