If flights to long already-booked holidays are cancelled over the summer, the knock-on effects could be huge - package holiday companies will be hit with refund demands, no tourists or hotel bookings at destinations decimate the local economies dependant on travel trade..
Whether from lack of jet fuel or high prices for it, the aviation industry is very, very vulnerable right now. But wait, it gets worse. European airlines have to divert around the Gulf AND around Russia, increasing the distance flown by over 1000 km in some cases. Meanwhile Chinese airlines are free to use Russian airspace, greatly cutting time and fuel costs for their flights from east Asia to Europe.
"A Beijing-based, English-speaking influencer suddenly dominates U.S. media—racking up millions of views in days. But who is “Professor Jiang”?
From Yale graduate to viral commentator, his rise isn’t just about predictions—it’s about messaging. His content echoes a powerful narrative: that America is declining, and the global balance is shifting.
So how is he operating from inside China—on a banned platform—without interference? And why is his voice resonating now?
This is not just about one man.It’s about influence, timing—and the message behind the messenger."
Well the video you linked to stinks of Falun Gong ties. Now I do think some of it is true, you cannot just open a public YouTube channel that goes viral from China without CCP approval, doesn't mean that he is controlled by CCP. He likely works around a guideline what he is allowed to say and what not. His opinion on Japan winning over China is not one you can state openly on China and could get him into trouble. His main problem is that he focuses too much on the past without noticing the fundamental running out of resources from oil to metals and it's implications on the future.
On the other hand his critical thinking of conflicts is top notch.
Problematic is much more the plenty AI channels using a copy of him.
I am convinced this is someone on the ‘inside’ being “allowed” to gain influence because generally anyone who speaks any truth (actual, real, “dangerous” truth) gets shadow banned and it becomes impossible to build an audience. So I am skeptical about where this is going!!
Savannah has left Tucson and has returned to NYC amidst a sea of pastel, group hugs and girl tears. Jesus rose from the dead but Nancy? Not so much. So much for hopes and prayers.
You miss Singapore gasoil platts, it went 230 USD/barrel by now, it jumped 14% after easter weekend.. I think even dated Brent is paper rubbish only without actual delivery possible. Diesel is well over 200usd/barrel for physical delivery worldwide... I guess looking at Singapore prices it should have reached 300 in some regions, same as jet fuel.
GDP measures value added at each step - or is supposed to measure that 😁, not the total transaction value.
Value added = revenue minus cost of inputs purchased from other businesses.
So if a manufacturer sells to a wholesaler for €100 (having bought €60 in raw materials), they contributed €40. The wholesaler sells to retail for €130, contributing €30. Retail sells to consumer for €160, contributing €30. GDP = €40 + €30 + €30 = €100 — which equals the final consumer price.
This is why GDP counts the final sale value once, not the gross transaction chain. Counting gross would double (triple, quadruple...) count intermediate inputs.
So far the theory. And then we can go into all the abberations... Like illegal drug trades or prostituting that is added. Or even gov jobs (😕🤔 value added??).
I know this is the theory. But how this works in reality at a country level, I am afraid, is tricky (put mildly). If you have consolidated (eliminated internal revenue) you know that only external revenue is counted as "revenue" and the way there is long and clad w trouble on the margin. Aside from credibility issues with incentives to boost top line with fake revenue etc. Data wise the anchor is the tax ID of each entity coupled with an internal/external logic in the AR/AP ledger. Here the former's revenue becomes the latter's cost because customers and suppliers are divided into external/internal. So internally (corporate now as country) only cost is counted. And this cost ties into the GDP. But to make this loop accurate, it must be done at the transaction level. Trouble is that the transaction level is the AR/AP for most internal transactions. The system needs 100% control and transparency to work, a transparency that does not exist. Therefore I don't believe in the GDP data. It's manipulated at the top to reflect something that does not exist: Control and transparency.
what do you think about jiang xueqin? (the crazy teacher).
he seems to have some good content but then on script, he would go off tangent about new world conspiracy and eschatological narratives with fuck all evidence so i am reluctant to watch his content in fear of brainrot affecting my trading / investing
He's an older "Asian Guy". I mostly skip it because I find it difficult to distinguish truth from fake... Like all those bots: it's about 80% truth and then connecting dots that would need a lot of credulity to follow.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/06/jet-fuel-crisis-rationing-triggered-at-four-airports-in-italy
First airports in Italy don't allow refuelling anymore in a decent amount for domestic flights.. ryanair warning summer season may be grounded
If flights to long already-booked holidays are cancelled over the summer, the knock-on effects could be huge - package holiday companies will be hit with refund demands, no tourists or hotel bookings at destinations decimate the local economies dependant on travel trade..
I predict a long hot violent summer this year.
Whether from lack of jet fuel or high prices for it, the aviation industry is very, very vulnerable right now. But wait, it gets worse. European airlines have to divert around the Gulf AND around Russia, increasing the distance flown by over 1000 km in some cases. Meanwhile Chinese airlines are free to use Russian airspace, greatly cutting time and fuel costs for their flights from east Asia to Europe.
Why This English Speaking Influencer Is Suddenly Everywhere @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARFZk46rk6s
"A Beijing-based, English-speaking influencer suddenly dominates U.S. media—racking up millions of views in days. But who is “Professor Jiang”?
From Yale graduate to viral commentator, his rise isn’t just about predictions—it’s about messaging. His content echoes a powerful narrative: that America is declining, and the global balance is shifting.
So how is he operating from inside China—on a banned platform—without interference? And why is his voice resonating now?
This is not just about one man.It’s about influence, timing—and the message behind the messenger."
Remember reading somewhere speculation the "professor" is AI-generated bot.
Well the video you linked to stinks of Falun Gong ties. Now I do think some of it is true, you cannot just open a public YouTube channel that goes viral from China without CCP approval, doesn't mean that he is controlled by CCP. He likely works around a guideline what he is allowed to say and what not. His opinion on Japan winning over China is not one you can state openly on China and could get him into trouble. His main problem is that he focuses too much on the past without noticing the fundamental running out of resources from oil to metals and it's implications on the future.
On the other hand his critical thinking of conflicts is top notch.
Problematic is much more the plenty AI channels using a copy of him.
As usual, consider the source, which in this case is:
https://www.youtube.com/@LeisRealTalk
I am convinced this is someone on the ‘inside’ being “allowed” to gain influence because generally anyone who speaks any truth (actual, real, “dangerous” truth) gets shadow banned and it becomes impossible to build an audience. So I am skeptical about where this is going!!
They came so fast, pizzas, gay bars.
Finally had something to laugh about this week.
Will Germany ever recover?
Savannah has left Tucson and has returned to NYC amidst a sea of pastel, group hugs and girl tears. Jesus rose from the dead but Nancy? Not so much. So much for hopes and prayers.
You miss Singapore gasoil platts, it went 230 USD/barrel by now, it jumped 14% after easter weekend.. I think even dated Brent is paper rubbish only without actual delivery possible. Diesel is well over 200usd/barrel for physical delivery worldwide... I guess looking at Singapore prices it should have reached 300 in some regions, same as jet fuel.
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
https://www.investing.com/commodities/nymex-singapore-gasoil-platts-c1-futures
Thank you for sharing all these random insights. Very entertaining.
Could anyone here pls tell me how GDP is consolidated at transaction level inside an economy?
E.g. mfg to wholesaler to mfg to retail.
GDP measures value added at each step - or is supposed to measure that 😁, not the total transaction value.
Value added = revenue minus cost of inputs purchased from other businesses.
So if a manufacturer sells to a wholesaler for €100 (having bought €60 in raw materials), they contributed €40. The wholesaler sells to retail for €130, contributing €30. Retail sells to consumer for €160, contributing €30. GDP = €40 + €30 + €30 = €100 — which equals the final consumer price.
This is why GDP counts the final sale value once, not the gross transaction chain. Counting gross would double (triple, quadruple...) count intermediate inputs.
So far the theory. And then we can go into all the abberations... Like illegal drug trades or prostituting that is added. Or even gov jobs (😕🤔 value added??).
I know this is the theory. But how this works in reality at a country level, I am afraid, is tricky (put mildly). If you have consolidated (eliminated internal revenue) you know that only external revenue is counted as "revenue" and the way there is long and clad w trouble on the margin. Aside from credibility issues with incentives to boost top line with fake revenue etc. Data wise the anchor is the tax ID of each entity coupled with an internal/external logic in the AR/AP ledger. Here the former's revenue becomes the latter's cost because customers and suppliers are divided into external/internal. So internally (corporate now as country) only cost is counted. And this cost ties into the GDP. But to make this loop accurate, it must be done at the transaction level. Trouble is that the transaction level is the AR/AP for most internal transactions. The system needs 100% control and transparency to work, a transparency that does not exist. Therefore I don't believe in the GDP data. It's manipulated at the top to reflect something that does not exist: Control and transparency.
what do you think about jiang xueqin? (the crazy teacher).
he seems to have some good content but then on script, he would go off tangent about new world conspiracy and eschatological narratives with fuck all evidence so i am reluctant to watch his content in fear of brainrot affecting my trading / investing
He's an older "Asian Guy". I mostly skip it because I find it difficult to distinguish truth from fake... Like all those bots: it's about 80% truth and then connecting dots that would need a lot of credulity to follow.
I hate where that damn arrow is here on the comments to submit 🤣 “Pwa” - a technical term explaining “one right after another”
“Pwa” - a technical
Explanation of one
“Gay bars are empty “? This is a poly market leading indicator? ROFLMAO!
I don't make the rules ... 🤷♂️
🤣😜