I will just and some points about the most likely “unknown unknowns”, to quote Donnie Rumsfeld.
Many commenters have rushed to say that after the 12 day war and the failed coup attempt, the Israelis have lost all their assets inside Iran, have run out of undercover projects, etc. Sure, mate. Of course. The Iranians have been preparing for 40 years but I would bet Mossad & co have not been sitting on their hands, either. If anything, last year pager attacks in Lebanon have proved that these fuckers can penetrate anything and won’t stop at any means to kill their enemies.
The EMP thing. I am a humble industrial engineer, not a physicist or nuclear engineer or such, but from my understanding, a nuclear EMP does not need to be exploded at very high altitude (like the earliest US tests at 400km high). You only need to explode it high enough that most of the energy is converted to the fast electrons (?) that cause the EM effect. Also, apparently nuclear bombs can be customized to have a very large NEMP yield. All this meaning that most probably NEMP attacks could be restricted to smaller regions and not affect the US satraps in the region.
The escalation stuff. If there is one thing that these guys are good at -besides murdering, cheating and stealing- is at manipulating the public opinion. IMO the Empire managers have already conceded defeat in the media sphere in Asia and Africa. Fortunately for them, the European and Iberoamerican folks are easy to manipulate when everything they consume comes from one or another US platform. An important point is that it is not necessary to convince the public. You just need to provide a believable narrative. Expect false flags, outrage, and stories of at least 6 million Jewish babies bajonetted inside their incubators by the godless communist Ayatollahs on Viagra.
Mossad: I hear you, but I'm not fully convinced they have deep reserves left. The pager operation was a masterpiece precisely because it was years in the making and unrepeatable. You penetrate the supply chain once. After that, every adversary in the world audits every piece of hardware they've ever touched. I can't put my finger on exactly why, but I get the sense they're firing their last arrows. Could be wrong obviously. Wouldn't be the first.
EMP: fair correction on the technical side, and it actually makes the scenario worse, not better. To cover all of Iran's territory meaningfully, you're either detonating something around 30km (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) altitude with a limited radius - which means multiple warheads to get full coverage - or you go high enough to cover the whole country in one shot and fry electronics from Riyadh to Ankara simultaneously. Neither option is clean. But it is pointless: hardened military infrastructure in caves and bunkers - exactly what you're trying to destroy - is largely unaffected either way. So you've just taken down a civilian power grid across the whole region, your allies included, while Iran's missile force sits intact underground and starts launching. That's not a strategy. Just s a very expensive way to lose friends.
incubator babies bajonetted on viagra: well, mirror mirror I guess? (brings back darker stuff I saw in the Epstein files)
I personally think that yes they are very nervous bc they know that the window of opportunity for creating Big Israel is closing, mostly bc they have evaluated that the sell-by date of their no1 symbiont / golem / whatever, the US Empire, is approaching fast.
I just wanted to include some other views in the debate.
Speaking of that, as I mentioned last time, by definition it is impossible (or at least very, very hard) to shield sensors (e.g. electro optical, radar emitters & receivers, GPS…) and telecom antennas (radio, mobile…) against EMP. You can shield a tank or an IFV (although you might lose some non essential functions) but you cannot shield an AD radar (well, you could, but it would not be operational during the time it is protected).
Absolutely necessary! I'm just one keyboard warrior. No1 can do this alone!
About EMP: absolutely correct on the radars. But I'm pretty sure the Iranians are smart people and have figured out to also stash away some radars 😉. I mean, they even started their succession 2 weeks before the US even started assembling in the Middle East... So they probably already know around what's coming.
The Iranians have been fully committed to 100% war against USrael since the Carter's helicopter debacle in the desert, so I'm sure planned redundacy is the order of .MIL business for Iranian defense systems.
Anyone remember USrael being banned from Neutron bomb production?
Rumour has it IDF went ahead & built a stock of them, just in case 👀
Add that to your scenario stack, if you're going to throw *nukes* into the realm of possibilities.
That being said, what Celti wants to say is that for radar to function (and correct me if I'm wrong), it cannot be shielded as then it wouldn't receive any waves (these waves would basically be grounded), rendering the radar completely useless...
Yes, clearly so, but you might want to hide targeting radars underground, since they are the first targets in an attack. It increases uncertainty and risk for the attacker that way.
Damn this is good. Telling my buddy about the show just several days ago. I was very young (maybe 7) but I still have images of it circulating in my mind. I only saw once and it depressed me as well (still does). The people today have NO CLUE.
Can’t finish this now. Am going to have to come back later. We are all on a ship of fools.
Well, the fact that you cranked this out in a few hours (I am basing this on the response you left yesterday to my comment on your “Once Upon a Contract” article) proves that you are a genius. The article is beyond superb. It is always a great privilege and pleasure to be in the company of genuine and supreme, as opposed to fake and artificial, intelligence.
I would simply add: Behold Puerto Vallarta. In this case, the combined geniuses of the U.S. and Mexican Drug Task Force Locate, Track, Trace and Murder ministries developed a Master Plan to take out ONE drug trafficker, the now dearly departed El Mencho.
ONE person. And what do we now have? A Mexican tourist industry, which is the mainstay of the Mexican economy, in total ruins, just on the cusp of the critical Spring Break peak season. Which is now dead, just like El Mencho. A Twofer: two murders, the second vastly more consequential than the first, for the price of one.
Did any of the geniuses in the Drug Task Forces spend one femto watt of mental energy to murder-game the likely consequences of their drug lord assassination? Did anyone conduct a cost analysis of the destruction of Mexico’s tourist industry, right before its most critical season? With Mexico’s economy now also shot in the head, like El Deado, did anyone care to wonder about the inevitable migration flows of newly impoverished Mexicans into the United States, and the cost of that to American taxpayers?
Obviously not. Or, the players did, and figured out that the assassination would result in disaster, but they didn’t care because death and destruction are way more fun than dry statistical assessments and realities.
All of these war fomenters and gamers are nothing but low intelligence, thrill seeking children playing fun games with their little toys. But the world has progressed, even though their minds have not, and their toys now have the direct ability to destroy the world.
We receive one celestial warning after another, and they are increasingly obvious. Basically, Warnings for Dummies. But the children who are about to destroy the world are too stupid, giddy and blind to understand or heed them.
The upcoming assault on Iran is Puerto Vallarte not only writ large, but catastrophically.
No, I've been working on this since Friday 😉. No1 could do THAT...
I'm not going to touch Mexico I think. It impacts my portfolio a bit (Mexico is like 25% of world wide silver production), but not material to me in the broader sense.
Maybe they DID game it out? Loss of revenue for the population makes the pop possibly rally AGAINST the drug cartels? I'm hoping for an El Salvador like rebound where everyone got fed up against the crime and just started cleaning up the streets themselves. They have time enough now that the tourist season is dead in the water. One can hope ofcourse they're playing 20D chess!
(1) I doubt that it was intended to assassinate El Mencho, given the .MIL body count, probably ran into more firepower than anticipated. Probably were hoping for some nice "we got him" + perp walk pics like they usually like to shower upon the "media".
(2) This is campaign against the Cartel's is *far* from over. The Cartel's Homo Horribilis CULTure numbers in the million$, profits in the billion$, entrenched into upper levels of Mexican .GOV; If anything all they've done is awaken a sleeping giant.
(3) (Luckily this time the damage to innocents was contained.) [Edit:] Oops, I just found out that 73 died, probably including a few "innocent" noncombatants, God knows how many seriously wounded or disabled. Seems like a *fail* in my book...
> With the revulsion among Mexico's gen pop rising due to non-resident gentrification ("Gringo go home" protests), plus partisan violence rising as it historically *always* does, if The Cartels decide to retaliate with asymptomatic tactics those tactical truck Federales will just become bait for guerrilla-esque attacks. Mexico has no real armored vehicles, plus the Cartel is armed with .MIL weapons + .MIL advisors (Think Blackhawk down, with steroids & hostages).
Without U$ .MIL involvement, plus a Mexican .GOV declaration of *open* war, this is just a PR campaign at best.
"The porous southern US border that has been a domestic political flashpoint for years is also, from Tehran’s perspective, an opportunity that would be irrational not to exploit. This isn’t paranoia."
"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you".
It's not conspiracy "theory", it's conspiracy "fact" (Thinks sleepy Joe!):
"The U.S. Border Patrol arrested Iranians 1,700 times at the Mexican border from October 2021 through November 2024, according to the most recent public data available. The Homeland Security Department reported that about 600 Iranians overstayed visas as business or exchange visitors, tourists and students in the 12-month period through September 2023".
Note: This story was presented as evidence that ICE ICE Baby was overreaching their mission by arresting long-term Iranian aliens that were "good" citizens, but the Associated Propaganda (AP) "reporter" decided to include that paragraph, describing 1,700 arrested Iranians, which in context with current events serves to expose America's soft underbelly.
So, with the millions that crossed the border between 2021 & 2025, if 1,700 Iranian "invaders" were actually *caught* at the U$ Southern Border by the U$ Border Patrol that was in stand-down mode how many battle-hardened, trained agents and/or terrorists were able to infiltrate without detection.
Then imagine how many *legit* asylum seekers might be blackmailed and/or ideologically bent to *save* their Persian families trapped in the kill zone?
Your scenario is not an *IF*, but a *WHEN* 👀
Then add to that scenario Iran's *known* Cartel Strategy:
"US officials on alert over suspected Iranian nationals at border. Intel suggests Mexican cartels may be helping Iranian nationals, Agents are urged to watch the Calexico-San Luis sector for infiltrators."
"Border Patrol: 2K Iranians encountered since January 2021"
"Europe will burn to the ground in a major civil war if the scenario you sketched becomes reality."
No doubt, the EUssr already balancing on a knives edge without the Crusades 3.0 befalling the "homeland".
Watching the EUssr welcoming .MIL age Islamists to flood into their nations, along with the Biden admin's open border policy, one might think that it's all part & parcel of the plan 👀
It might be time for that "I don't start wars I end them" President to show up. A fragile ego and an itchy trigger finger are a bad combination. And WTF is with Huckabee?? Yikes.
The US won't launch a nuke first. Israel, however, might, because it doesn't give a flying fuck what anyone else thinks or will do. Israel doesn't have 90 nukes - it has more like 300-400. Iran doesn't need even one *working* (as in detonating) nuclear device to reach Tel Aviv - it needs just to pour 400 kg enriched uranium dust over it. I still think that cooler heads will prevail, though, and the conflict will be limited to conventional destruction and killing.
Dirty bomb: I had this in one of my previous drafts. I mixed that up with the 80% little boy. I'll see if I can integrate that again because it is an (un) imaginable use of enriched uranium.
So many variables, which are compounded to infinity by greed, corruption, fraud & the pretentious musings of "intel" agencies.
Throw in some warmongering by Homo Horribilis & one could literally go crazy trying to war game this scenario 😐
No shortage of talking head "experts" out there in the podcast verse right now, which although I've seen a few links I know to avoid their clickbait farming tactics long ago...
Not pointing at No1, you've created a genuine community of honest discussion, No1 here is selling snake oil or trying to serve an ulterior agenda, that I'm aware of.
Indeed, I'm quite happy with my community! Like-minded, but I don't have the echo-chamber feel. Which is good. Else ideas won't grow.
I just posted what I saw as possibilities. I like scenario 8 🤣. No idea how THAT could ever be flipped to sound like a victory, but hey! that's the world we live in...
This article is among your best forensic analyses, NO1. I point to Israel as the initiator of war in the ME, the tail that wags the US dog, will stop at nothing for global dominance.
The US, which acts as Israel's enforcement arm and fiat supplier, is captured from within by intimidation, blackmail and bribery as exemplified by Huckabee's defence of Israel.
I don't think that US leadership has become enough insane (yet) to actually use nukes.
It would be a big net loss strategically given all allies lost (i.e. everyone but the West, the West itself becoming unreliable allies, as public sentiment wouldn't be in favor of the US in this one)
Not to mention the automatic nuclear armament by everyone that can afford it.
All of this for a country that's not a real threat to the US. In fact, the alliance with the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia is cemented by their fear of Iran. Actually destroying Iran's regime is not in US interests in the first place imo.
I'm more expecting between (i) limited strikes, (ii) full conventional war, and (iii) nothing actually happens.
None of the outlayed options are sane in my opinion. I started out with 3 nuke scenarios because I saw these popping up in comments and on X. But then I broadened it to all potential scenarios that I could think of.
The ZionaZi cancer in the bowels of a dying and debauched empire of drug-addled liars and their unpayable debt, under the control of the compromised, Mossad Epstein ensnared, immoral Orange clown may well lead the USSAN Golem to its long overdue grave. The only problem I have with that is that it might very well take the rest of the planet with it. Time to release ALL the Epstein filth on ALL the pedophiles in the Washing town sewer and their willing pedovore helpers. The disease that is Zionism must be extirpated from the so-called West and the thugocracy occupying and genociding the real Semitic people of Palestine must be destroyed for once and for all.
As a wise man once said, let us pray.
Another great essay! Congratulations!
I will just and some points about the most likely “unknown unknowns”, to quote Donnie Rumsfeld.
Many commenters have rushed to say that after the 12 day war and the failed coup attempt, the Israelis have lost all their assets inside Iran, have run out of undercover projects, etc. Sure, mate. Of course. The Iranians have been preparing for 40 years but I would bet Mossad & co have not been sitting on their hands, either. If anything, last year pager attacks in Lebanon have proved that these fuckers can penetrate anything and won’t stop at any means to kill their enemies.
The EMP thing. I am a humble industrial engineer, not a physicist or nuclear engineer or such, but from my understanding, a nuclear EMP does not need to be exploded at very high altitude (like the earliest US tests at 400km high). You only need to explode it high enough that most of the energy is converted to the fast electrons (?) that cause the EM effect. Also, apparently nuclear bombs can be customized to have a very large NEMP yield. All this meaning that most probably NEMP attacks could be restricted to smaller regions and not affect the US satraps in the region.
The escalation stuff. If there is one thing that these guys are good at -besides murdering, cheating and stealing- is at manipulating the public opinion. IMO the Empire managers have already conceded defeat in the media sphere in Asia and Africa. Fortunately for them, the European and Iberoamerican folks are easy to manipulate when everything they consume comes from one or another US platform. An important point is that it is not necessary to convince the public. You just need to provide a believable narrative. Expect false flags, outrage, and stories of at least 6 million Jewish babies bajonetted inside their incubators by the godless communist Ayatollahs on Viagra.
Mossad: I hear you, but I'm not fully convinced they have deep reserves left. The pager operation was a masterpiece precisely because it was years in the making and unrepeatable. You penetrate the supply chain once. After that, every adversary in the world audits every piece of hardware they've ever touched. I can't put my finger on exactly why, but I get the sense they're firing their last arrows. Could be wrong obviously. Wouldn't be the first.
EMP: fair correction on the technical side, and it actually makes the scenario worse, not better. To cover all of Iran's territory meaningfully, you're either detonating something around 30km (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) altitude with a limited radius - which means multiple warheads to get full coverage - or you go high enough to cover the whole country in one shot and fry electronics from Riyadh to Ankara simultaneously. Neither option is clean. But it is pointless: hardened military infrastructure in caves and bunkers - exactly what you're trying to destroy - is largely unaffected either way. So you've just taken down a civilian power grid across the whole region, your allies included, while Iran's missile force sits intact underground and starts launching. That's not a strategy. Just s a very expensive way to lose friends.
incubator babies bajonetted on viagra: well, mirror mirror I guess? (brings back darker stuff I saw in the Epstein files)
I personally think that yes they are very nervous bc they know that the window of opportunity for creating Big Israel is closing, mostly bc they have evaluated that the sell-by date of their no1 symbiont / golem / whatever, the US Empire, is approaching fast.
I just wanted to include some other views in the debate.
Speaking of that, as I mentioned last time, by definition it is impossible (or at least very, very hard) to shield sensors (e.g. electro optical, radar emitters & receivers, GPS…) and telecom antennas (radio, mobile…) against EMP. You can shield a tank or an IFV (although you might lose some non essential functions) but you cannot shield an AD radar (well, you could, but it would not be operational during the time it is protected).
Absolutely necessary! I'm just one keyboard warrior. No1 can do this alone!
About EMP: absolutely correct on the radars. But I'm pretty sure the Iranians are smart people and have figured out to also stash away some radars 😉. I mean, they even started their succession 2 weeks before the US even started assembling in the Middle East... So they probably already know around what's coming.
The Iranians have been fully committed to 100% war against USrael since the Carter's helicopter debacle in the desert, so I'm sure planned redundacy is the order of .MIL business for Iranian defense systems.
Anyone remember USrael being banned from Neutron bomb production?
Rumour has it IDF went ahead & built a stock of them, just in case 👀
Add that to your scenario stack, if you're going to throw *nukes* into the realm of possibilities.
Iranian S300s are out in the open, but the radars are nowhere visible, by recent reports.
There are also a lot of decoys out there.
That being said, what Celti wants to say is that for radar to function (and correct me if I'm wrong), it cannot be shielded as then it wouldn't receive any waves (these waves would basically be grounded), rendering the radar completely useless...
Yes, clearly so, but you might want to hide targeting radars underground, since they are the first targets in an attack. It increases uncertainty and risk for the attacker that way.
Excellent, Celti.
"The price of silver is irrelevant if the exchange is closed and your broker's phones are down."
which is why you always have a goodly stack of phizz...!
instead of worthless paper promises on egregious electronic exchanges...?
dyodd...?
Awsome comments. As interesting as the article.
I think a future generation is going to look back on these times and wonder WTF where they thinking?
Damn this is good. Telling my buddy about the show just several days ago. I was very young (maybe 7) but I still have images of it circulating in my mind. I only saw once and it depressed me as well (still does). The people today have NO CLUE.
Can’t finish this now. Am going to have to come back later. We are all on a ship of fools.
Had to watch it again last night (No1’s link is HD, and even I could almost do without cc).
It’s much more depressing now, if only bc back then average dudes knew where Kansas was. Future generation? Optimist.
IMHO a first-use of nukes by Israel would bring about a worldwide anti-Jewish pogrom of Biblical scale.
(Armageddon enters the chat)
Well, the fact that you cranked this out in a few hours (I am basing this on the response you left yesterday to my comment on your “Once Upon a Contract” article) proves that you are a genius. The article is beyond superb. It is always a great privilege and pleasure to be in the company of genuine and supreme, as opposed to fake and artificial, intelligence.
I would simply add: Behold Puerto Vallarta. In this case, the combined geniuses of the U.S. and Mexican Drug Task Force Locate, Track, Trace and Murder ministries developed a Master Plan to take out ONE drug trafficker, the now dearly departed El Mencho.
ONE person. And what do we now have? A Mexican tourist industry, which is the mainstay of the Mexican economy, in total ruins, just on the cusp of the critical Spring Break peak season. Which is now dead, just like El Mencho. A Twofer: two murders, the second vastly more consequential than the first, for the price of one.
Did any of the geniuses in the Drug Task Forces spend one femto watt of mental energy to murder-game the likely consequences of their drug lord assassination? Did anyone conduct a cost analysis of the destruction of Mexico’s tourist industry, right before its most critical season? With Mexico’s economy now also shot in the head, like El Deado, did anyone care to wonder about the inevitable migration flows of newly impoverished Mexicans into the United States, and the cost of that to American taxpayers?
Obviously not. Or, the players did, and figured out that the assassination would result in disaster, but they didn’t care because death and destruction are way more fun than dry statistical assessments and realities.
All of these war fomenters and gamers are nothing but low intelligence, thrill seeking children playing fun games with their little toys. But the world has progressed, even though their minds have not, and their toys now have the direct ability to destroy the world.
We receive one celestial warning after another, and they are increasingly obvious. Basically, Warnings for Dummies. But the children who are about to destroy the world are too stupid, giddy and blind to understand or heed them.
The upcoming assault on Iran is Puerto Vallarte not only writ large, but catastrophically.
No, I've been working on this since Friday 😉. No1 could do THAT...
I'm not going to touch Mexico I think. It impacts my portfolio a bit (Mexico is like 25% of world wide silver production), but not material to me in the broader sense.
Maybe they DID game it out? Loss of revenue for the population makes the pop possibly rally AGAINST the drug cartels? I'm hoping for an El Salvador like rebound where everyone got fed up against the crime and just started cleaning up the streets themselves. They have time enough now that the tourist season is dead in the water. One can hope ofcourse they're playing 20D chess!
Three (3) things:
(1) I doubt that it was intended to assassinate El Mencho, given the .MIL body count, probably ran into more firepower than anticipated. Probably were hoping for some nice "we got him" + perp walk pics like they usually like to shower upon the "media".
(2) This is campaign against the Cartel's is *far* from over. The Cartel's Homo Horribilis CULTure numbers in the million$, profits in the billion$, entrenched into upper levels of Mexican .GOV; If anything all they've done is awaken a sleeping giant.
(3) (Luckily this time the damage to innocents was contained.) [Edit:] Oops, I just found out that 73 died, probably including a few "innocent" noncombatants, God knows how many seriously wounded or disabled. Seems like a *fail* in my book...
> With the revulsion among Mexico's gen pop rising due to non-resident gentrification ("Gringo go home" protests), plus partisan violence rising as it historically *always* does, if The Cartels decide to retaliate with asymptomatic tactics those tactical truck Federales will just become bait for guerrilla-esque attacks. Mexico has no real armored vehicles, plus the Cartel is armed with .MIL weapons + .MIL advisors (Think Blackhawk down, with steroids & hostages).
Without U$ .MIL involvement, plus a Mexican .GOV declaration of *open* war, this is just a PR campaign at best.
*Smile for the camera El Chupo*
Go. Big. Or. Go. Home.
"The porous southern US border that has been a domestic political flashpoint for years is also, from Tehran’s perspective, an opportunity that would be irrational not to exploit. This isn’t paranoia."
"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you".
It's not conspiracy "theory", it's conspiracy "fact" (Thinks sleepy Joe!):
"The U.S. Border Patrol arrested Iranians 1,700 times at the Mexican border from October 2021 through November 2024, according to the most recent public data available. The Homeland Security Department reported that about 600 Iranians overstayed visas as business or exchange visitors, tourists and students in the 12-month period through September 2023".
https://apnews.com/article/iran-immigration-arrests-us-trump-deportations-9a4136657bda3a277125738807848368
Note: This story was presented as evidence that ICE ICE Baby was overreaching their mission by arresting long-term Iranian aliens that were "good" citizens, but the Associated Propaganda (AP) "reporter" decided to include that paragraph, describing 1,700 arrested Iranians, which in context with current events serves to expose America's soft underbelly.
So, with the millions that crossed the border between 2021 & 2025, if 1,700 Iranian "invaders" were actually *caught* at the U$ Southern Border by the U$ Border Patrol that was in stand-down mode how many battle-hardened, trained agents and/or terrorists were able to infiltrate without detection.
Then imagine how many *legit* asylum seekers might be blackmailed and/or ideologically bent to *save* their Persian families trapped in the kill zone?
Your scenario is not an *IF*, but a *WHEN* 👀
Then add to that scenario Iran's *known* Cartel Strategy:
"US officials on alert over suspected Iranian nationals at border. Intel suggests Mexican cartels may be helping Iranian nationals, Agents are urged to watch the Calexico-San Luis sector for infiltrators."
"Border Patrol: 2K Iranians encountered since January 2021"
https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/immigration/border-coverage/us-officials-alert-suspected-iranian-nationals-border
*BOOM*
"Europe is split between its reflexive support for Israel and the horror of nuclear use in a war it opposed from the start."
Forget 'split'. I expect the Muslim populations of Europe to rise up and overthrow their woke and deranged, feminist overlords.
Europe will burn to the ground in a major civil war if the scenario you sketched becomes reality.
One can hope I guess? Get it over with?
But in either situation the west is fucked I feel.
""The only way to win, is not to play.""
That's a very apt quote here...
"Europe will burn to the ground in a major civil war if the scenario you sketched becomes reality."
No doubt, the EUssr already balancing on a knives edge without the Crusades 3.0 befalling the "homeland".
Watching the EUssr welcoming .MIL age Islamists to flood into their nations, along with the Biden admin's open border policy, one might think that it's all part & parcel of the plan 👀
What. Is. The. Plan. ❔
It might be time for that "I don't start wars I end them" President to show up. A fragile ego and an itchy trigger finger are a bad combination. And WTF is with Huckabee?? Yikes.
Speculation based on close observation; Huckabee is owned. Lock, stock, and anus.
The fan dance is for his owners, The Redneck Reader version of ancient Hebrew texts is the fan.
That's what you get when people vote deranged Boombers into office over and over again.
The US won't launch a nuke first. Israel, however, might, because it doesn't give a flying fuck what anyone else thinks or will do. Israel doesn't have 90 nukes - it has more like 300-400. Iran doesn't need even one *working* (as in detonating) nuclear device to reach Tel Aviv - it needs just to pour 400 kg enriched uranium dust over it. I still think that cooler heads will prevail, though, and the conflict will be limited to conventional destruction and killing.
Dirty bomb: I had this in one of my previous drafts. I mixed that up with the 80% little boy. I'll see if I can integrate that again because it is an (un) imaginable use of enriched uranium.
So many variables, which are compounded to infinity by greed, corruption, fraud & the pretentious musings of "intel" agencies.
Throw in some warmongering by Homo Horribilis & one could literally go crazy trying to war game this scenario 😐
No shortage of talking head "experts" out there in the podcast verse right now, which although I've seen a few links I know to avoid their clickbait farming tactics long ago...
Not pointing at No1, you've created a genuine community of honest discussion, No1 here is selling snake oil or trying to serve an ulterior agenda, that I'm aware of.
Indeed, I'm quite happy with my community! Like-minded, but I don't have the echo-chamber feel. Which is good. Else ideas won't grow.
I just posted what I saw as possibilities. I like scenario 8 🤣. No idea how THAT could ever be flipped to sound like a victory, but hey! that's the world we live in...
This article is among your best forensic analyses, NO1. I point to Israel as the initiator of war in the ME, the tail that wags the US dog, will stop at nothing for global dominance.
The US, which acts as Israel's enforcement arm and fiat supplier, is captured from within by intimidation, blackmail and bribery as exemplified by Huckabee's defence of Israel.
I just added an 8th scenario at the bottom 😉
I don't think that US leadership has become enough insane (yet) to actually use nukes.
It would be a big net loss strategically given all allies lost (i.e. everyone but the West, the West itself becoming unreliable allies, as public sentiment wouldn't be in favor of the US in this one)
Not to mention the automatic nuclear armament by everyone that can afford it.
All of this for a country that's not a real threat to the US. In fact, the alliance with the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia is cemented by their fear of Iran. Actually destroying Iran's regime is not in US interests in the first place imo.
I'm more expecting between (i) limited strikes, (ii) full conventional war, and (iii) nothing actually happens.
But of course i could be wrong.
None of the outlayed options are sane in my opinion. I started out with 3 nuke scenarios because I saw these popping up in comments and on X. But then I broadened it to all potential scenarios that I could think of.
None of them good for No1 involved.
Israeli leadership is definitely insane enough to use nukes
Yes they are. But they can't do it without US consent.
BTW...my hat is off to you sir. You are working overtime...and then some. Great piece. Ty.
The situation warrants it... Got a few more lined up over the weekend 😉. Didn't get much sleep...
The ZionaZi cancer in the bowels of a dying and debauched empire of drug-addled liars and their unpayable debt, under the control of the compromised, Mossad Epstein ensnared, immoral Orange clown may well lead the USSAN Golem to its long overdue grave. The only problem I have with that is that it might very well take the rest of the planet with it. Time to release ALL the Epstein filth on ALL the pedophiles in the Washing town sewer and their willing pedovore helpers. The disease that is Zionism must be extirpated from the so-called West and the thugocracy occupying and genociding the real Semitic people of Palestine must be destroyed for once and for all.
Really enjoyed your writings! Thank you No1.
By the way, regarding the “shit” issue on warship, it could be acts of civil disobedience: https://x.com/poordart/status/2026168646016589853?s=46