Credit to ArmchairW on X
NATO continues shipping weapons to Ukraine through Black Sea ports despite obvious Russian surveillance and regular strikes. The reason reveals something surprising: even though these supply routes are compromised, they’re still being the safer way to get weapons into Ukraine.
The problem starts in Eastern Europe. When NATO expanded into former Warsaw Pact territories, it inherited its populations. But Russian intelligence never really left. Poland processes 6,700 tonnes of weapons monthly for Ukraine, but Russian sympathizers monitor the truck stops from Rzeszów to the border. Hungarian and Slovak rail workers report train schedules. Romanian port workers note shipping manifests. The Iron Curtain fell, but the human networks remained.
This forces NATO into using sea routes through Odessa and other Black Sea ports. Not because they're safer - they're demonstrably more dangerous - but because acknowledging land route compromise would mean admitting NATO's eastern expansion created vulnerabilities rather than strength. So weapons take the long maritime route, where Russia can track, target, and destroy them along with their Ukrainian crews in predictable kill zones.
The pattern is consistent: NATO ships HIMARS systems that Russia tracks from port to deployment. Ukraine concentrates these weapons with expensively trained crews. Russia destroys both weapons and operators. The West celebrates the delivery, Ukraine celebrates receiving them, and Russia celebrates eliminating more irreplaceable Ukrainian specialists. Each cycle depletes Ukraine's shrinking pool of technical expertise.
This systematic killing serves a strategic purpose: ensuring Ukraine can never again become a platform for NATO expansion or threats to Russia. A conquered Ukraine could rebuild with Western help and eventually revolt. But a Ukraine missing two generations of military-aged males? That's permanent security. Russia doesn't need to occupy what cannot resist.
The leaked 1.7 million casualty figure may be disputed, but the demographic reality is undeniable. Over 650,000 military-aged Ukrainian men fled to Europe, another 400,000 deserted, while untold numbers died around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk. Russia turned these places into meat grinders by design - advancing just enough to force Ukraine to defend, never enough to end the killing. When Russian forces break through, they wait rather than exploit, maintaining the attrition while showing mercy to surrenderers (unlike Ukrainian forces who reportedly execute their own deserters). Russia advances 50-135 meters daily, slower than WWI rates, because rushing would end the war before achieving the strategic goal: a permanently neutered neighbor that serves as a warning to Georgia, Moldova, and other former Soviet states about the cost of choosing NATO over neutrality.
Ukraine cannot escape this trap. Zelensky won office on a peace platform in 2019 but was publicly humiliated by nationalist forces like Azov who made clear what happens to leaders who negotiate with Russia. Now these same forces are integrated into the military structure, watching for weakness. Even if Zelensky wanted peace, Lavrov has declared him illegitimate for treaty ratification since his term expired without elections. Ukraine must continue bleeding because it literally cannot legally surrender.
Yet even Ukrainian leadership recognizes the demographic catastrophe. In August 2025, after graduating classes consisted "almost entirely of girls," Ukraine finally allowed men aged 18-22 to leave the country - reversing the travel ban that had trapped all men 18-60 since the invasion began. With 86.5% of Ukrainians opposing lowering the draft age to 18, this represents a desperate attempt to preserve some demographic future by letting the youngest cohort escape. It's an admission that even if Ukraine somehow wins militarily, it has already lost demographically.
The West enables this slaughter by maintaining support levels intended to continue fighting . Even without a clear path to victory. Pushing to mobilize the remaining 23-25 year-olds while letting the 18-22s flee reveals the grotesque calculation: sacrifice one generation to save a remnant for an imaginary future Ukraine.
Alternative media identified these patterns years ago while mainstream outlets still printed arrows on maps showing the next Ukrainian counteroffensive. They recognized that Russia's "failed" invasion was actually a patient strategy and that every weapons shipment marked more Ukrainians for death.
The mathematics are inexorable. Russia loses 0.2% of its 147 million population while Ukraine hemorrhages 5% of its remaining 30 million. Russia can sustain this indefinitely; Ukraine faces extinction within three years. The weapons keep flowing through compromised routes, Ukrainian specialists keep dying, and the demographic arithmetic proceeds toward its inevitable conclusion.
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