122 Comments
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Lisa Hutchins's avatar

Goddamn No1, I don't know who you are but you can fucking WRITE! You absolutely kill it in every one of your posts. Even though the news is terrible, I can at least appreciate your analysis and delivery. Hats off to you, my friend.

Gil's avatar

Like Simplicius, but with extra sarcasm

John Day MD's avatar

It rises to "wit" much of the time...

Nick Robson's avatar

No 1 turns facetious into an art form while providing incisive analysis. Bravo!

occamsrazorback22's avatar

The best part about famine is that the GLP-1 drugs are rendered irrelevant. Time to short the manufacturers?

Aside from that Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?

JB's avatar

IDK, demand is not going down at this point, so it could end up make them even more profitable when they have to raise prices. Demand will still be greater than supply. Now perhaps even moreso. They'll make deals with China if needed, I'd imagine.

John Day MD's avatar

"Ask not for whom the bell tolls..."

;-(

JustPlainBill's avatar

Forgive me, but I don't recall ever reading that "the war was partly launched to secure the Strait of Hormuz." After all, it was wide open and toll-free until we started shooting.

I had some time to reflect on the weirdness of the way in which the markets seem to be blindly marching to the headlines, however false and changing they may be. It occurred to me that perhaps a lot of the market action is being driven by AI auto-trading that goes off headlines in "trusted sources." I know that some of these things are programmed to react in milliseconds to headlines coming over the wire, but I don't know how much of the volume they account for.

No1's avatar

You are 100% correct. Hormuz was open and free before February 28.

The war was launched officially for nuclear/regime change reasons.

Iran closed Hormuz then as retaliation, THEN reopening it became an urgent objective (Trump's ultimatums, the escort requests, the whole toll booth saga), and NOW that objective was quietly dropped.

No1's avatar

FYI: https://www.coherentmarketinsights.com/market-insight/algorithmic-trading-market-2476

> Algorithmic and high-frequency strategies now account for roughly 60-70% of total trading volume in major equity markets.

JustPlainBill's avatar

That is what I seemed to recall. I read once about some "battles" that various trading houses were battling to get their communications towers even a few feet closer to the exchanges so they could shave those milliseconds down even further.

No1's avatar

milliseconds? That’s so 1990’s 🤣. It’s nano or even pico seconds these days…

Aaron Kulkis's avatar

Correction.

Light travels at 1 foot per 0.987 nanosecond = 987 picosecond.

Current CPUs are running at 3 GHz 0.333 nanosecond/clock cycle = 333 picosecond/clock cycle.

At 3.333 GHz, reduce clock interval to 0.300 ns = 300 ps.

Vivian Evans's avatar

Stellar analysis, exemplary gallows humour! Did the Iranian secret service got their hands on Gen Van Riper's gameplay? Hm ....

No1's avatar

No need. That’s what any decent guy with brains (and a bad attitude 🤘) would do. I don’t think I’d do it much different.

You’ve got to see what you’ve got in your pocket, and work with it.

Sharon Royal's avatar

Your black humor is absolutely delicious. These articles are collectibles.

Richard Roskell's avatar

There's the old war adage about not interrupting your enemy when he's making a mistake. It's a good one, too. But one should always consider the possibility that what appears on the surface to be a foolish mistake may in fact be intentional.

The inescapable reality hanging over everything: The US national debt is approaching $40 trillion, an amount so vast that few people, if they're candid, expect can ever be repaid. Thus, a default on the US debt is inevitable. This is surely understood in Washington.

Problem. How can the US default on that debt while maintaining its own financial and geopolitical dominance?

The coming economic damage to America can't be avoided. To go into that depleted state while the rest of the world is doing fine would mean the end of US dominance. So the way to default on the debt while keeping the empire is to drag the rest of the world into financial chaos first, and then default amidst the turmoil. By doing so the US lessens the humiliation and consequences of default while weakening all its rivals and allies alike.

The logic is straightforward. If you're going to take a great strategic loss, then weaken everybody else first in order to maintain your relative standing once the dust settles.

Through all of that, the US would naturally appreciate a big helping of revenue. How about oil? The US exports more than 10 million barrels of oil daily. If the price of oil doubles, or triples, or even more, then the US builds an enormous war-chest to see it through the default.

In this scenario, the Iran war is the way to simultaneously weaken all rivals, while profiting from the rise in price of oil. It's about avoiding drowning by climbing on the backs of those who are. After you caused the boat to sink.

Though it's Machiavellian in the extreme, it's the kind of step that a dying empire might take.

The above is just a working theory. But we shall know in the not-too-distant future if it's correct. Here is the critical point: the damage being done to the world's economy by the war is colossally disproportionate to any strategic advantage to be gained from attacking Iran.

If the war continues, as Trump has effectively announced, then the obvious conclusion is that the global economic damage is the point, rather than the war against Iran itself. Conversely if the US and Israel pull back in earnest, and soon, then this theory remains hypothetical and the world can breathe a little easier.

No1's avatar

I have one article in the works to refute part of your concern (the oil one). I'll prioritise that so it can go out tomorrow.

Martillo's avatar
5dEdited

"So the way to default on the debt while keeping the empire is to drag the rest of the world into financial chaos first, and then default amidst the turmoil. By doing so the US lessens the humiliation and consequences of default while weakening all its rivals and allies alike."

Forget about keeping "the empire" after the ongoing debacle. Pox Amerikana is being cured. $lumville proper aka United Snakes of Israel will not avoid all out chaos and its long overdue balkanization. Just wait until the sullen slum-dwelling ethnics get really riled up and "skilled" Pentacon fodder outsource their "talents" to the highest bidder as the reds and da blues get their long overdue and much deserved civil war reloaded. The only glue still holding $lumville together is Pentacon Kill Industries Inc and after the Iran ass kicking that will no longer stick the house divided against itself back together. The IOU fiat filth ex Saudimercan fiat filth petroscrip toilet paper dollah is being flushed out of the Persian Gulf as Mohammad Bin Salami refuses to kiss Agent Orange's wobbly ass, and that's just the start. Onward to the total co££ap$€ of the so-called West and welcome to the all new new world order. Debt Bums and their death bombs no longer bring home the (stolen) bacon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcLVDhS8fM&list=RDGXcLVDhS8fM&start_radio=1

Yoni Reinón's avatar

I strongly doubt king Salman will ever forget the Queens boy insults. He cut off Kashoggi into pieces for far less than that.

Janice's avatar

End the fed. The debt is all make believe. Created out of nothing. In typical Rothschilds style. Heads need to roll. And not bc they have broken noahide laws. But are guilty of treason.

Janice's avatar

Replying to Richard Roskell.

Richard Roskell's avatar

I can certainly understand that sentiment, but I don't believe the Federal Reserve Bank is going anywhere. It's a cornerstone of the US financial system. That may not matter much to the average Joe or Janice, but it really matters to the people who have all the money.

However in the scenario I'm describing, it's quite possible that the Fed won't survive under the same name. That might look a little too awkward. During the default, Trump would likely blame much of it on the Fed as it's an easy scapegoat. He would tell the American people that he's cleaning house and creating a new and better Fed. The best Fed in history, in fact. Nothing will fundamentally change however. The New Fed will just be the old Fed, except with even looser banking rules to help the 1% through the tough times.

No1's avatar

Sadly, I can see such future. Not with a low probability either.

Richard Roskell's avatar

I've mulled over the whole scenario for a few days now. Each day I wake up and think it's more and more likely. Right now I'd put the chance at better than 50%.

The thing that keeps haunting me is that the scheme is completely rational. Deeply immoral, but strategically rational. Yes, thousands of people in Iran are being killed and millions around the world will suffer. But that's never caused the USA to hesitate in the past. If it's in America's broadly defined 'national interest,' then it kills and causes misery without hesitation. And relatively speaking, even if he does go through with it, Trump could wind up killing far fewer people than many of his predecessors.

Al's avatar

That would certainly jibe with Trump’s gameplay in every other endeavour he’s ever participated in.

Richard Roskell's avatar

"Donald Trump’s businesses have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy six times between 1991 and 2009, regarding Atlantic City casinos and NYC hotels. While not personal bankruptcies, these filings allowed his companies to restructure debt, often leaving lenders and investors with losses. He also had over $270 million in debt forgiven after failing to repay loans on a Chicago project." - Gemini AI

I'd go so far as to say that never in history has a US president had so much experience in defaulting on his financial obligations.

Say what you like about him, Trump understands how going into default, if done correctly, can still leave you in a viable economic state. And with all his prior defaults, it's not as if he would have a moral or personal opposition to the notion were the USA to do it. Along with that, whereas a business bankruptcy imposes penalties through the legal process, if the USA defaults there's no way that other countries can impose a penalty, other than by not buying future US debt. They would basically have to take whatever Trump offered them. Fifty cents on the dollar? Ten cents? Nothing? Holders of US government debt have no way to force repayment, either in whole or in part. At the end of the day, any country that tries to force repayment can just be bombed.

Richard Roskell's avatar

The scenario might play out like this.

For now, Trump does nothing more than what he's currently doing: keeping the war against Iran in play. He doesn't even have to attack Iran that much. The simple key here is for Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. This shuts off Gulf oil, causing massive disruptions world-wide, particularly against rivals like China and India, and drives the cost of petroleum imports for almost every country into the stratosphere. But not for the US. It exports 10 million barrels of oil per day.

As the global economy implodes, other countries will default. Some likely candidates? France, the UK, Turkey, South Korea, just to mention the larger ones. Many more smaller ones will go under as well. Once the turmoil hits full boil, THAT'S when the US defaults as well. In fact, the US can use all the other defaults as the excuse for why it's suddenly going Chapter 11. It's rubbish of course, but it saves face.

Then it gets interesting. Because there's no authority that can impose penalties on the US, it gets to determine who (if anyone) will see any of their loaned principle returned, and how much. Trump can pick and choose, and he most likely will. Israel will get 110% on principle. Argentina and Hungary - because they suck up to Trump - say 75%. China? Maybe 10% or less.

But what about the stock market and US equities, you wisely ask? Wouldn't this turn them into a smoking crater? Not necessarily. The US government's debt is a separate matter. And the people who hold the equities might conclude that the companies they own are still viable. Moreover, selling into that maelstrom would wipe out a massive amount of equity. So maybe better to stay in. The world will still want Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon, after all.

The facts, all of it public knowledge:

The interest payment on US government debt is currently $1.2 trillion per year. The fiscal deficit is $1.8 trillion per year. All of that has to be borrowed. On top of that, the US will have to redeem $10 TRILLION in maturing US Treasury bills and bonds just in 2026 alone.

That's a $13 trillion dollar borrowing tab for 2026, just to keep the lights on. And it will only be worse next year and the year after that. Frankly, if I found myself in that position I'd be looking at defaulting too.

orango69's avatar

You're forgetting two major high probability crashes playing along. Italy is one unfortunately, partially mitigated by the huge private savings and the world's 3rd gold reserve, similar in size to that of France. And Japan, the biggest of all because of the size of the debt and the financial consequences worldwide. You may want also to consider how much will worth the USD in case of default, and how will affect banks balances, stock valuations and 401k.

Richard Roskell's avatar

For the sake of brevity I didn't go through a full list but you're right, those are two more likely candidates.

The US dollar is in a special place. It's not defaulting. It's the US government that's defaulting on its debt, which it owes in dollars. The dollar is still there as a global reserve currency, and can continue to be used as such for as long as people believe it has value. The biggest risk to the value of the dollar is debasement by the US government, if it tries to inflate its way out of debt by printing money. But with a default that's unnecessary.

As an alternative to current US dollar, after default the US government might introduce a digital dollar, stablecoin, tokens or whatever other new form of currency it wishes to do business in. Sky's the limit, really, when you're starting from a clean slate.

The wealth that people and businesses have in banks, stocks and pensions isn't involved in the default. That wealth remains at whatever residual value the US dollar retains. Will that value be the same as before default? Highly unlikely. But diminishing value for that wealth is baked in anyway, as the government's debt grinds away at it. Nevertheless, if you had a dollar in the bank before default, you have a dollar in the bank after default. It's the people who lent money to the US government that take the hit. They may get nothing back.

Mike Atkinson's avatar

It won't stop, "we have to keep winning, we have to win more, we're gonna win more."

😔

John's avatar

Meanwhile, silver had a pretty big red candle 2100 yesterday and has drifted lower to ~70.

I was thinking the low 50s scenario might not occur. You know, before the silver uber bulls call of $100s by Fall THIS year?! If silver gets to the low 50s I'm adding. Don't know how much, but it won't be trivial.

What did John M Keynes say about the long run? Yep.

Al DuClur's avatar

Thank you for the humor. I love the old saying that life is a tragedy for those who feel and a comedy for those who think. Most major events are both. We have had a lot of commentary about the tragedy of this insane war but your post is a rare glimpse at the comedic aspect.

Given that we are ruled by gay, satanic pedaphiles who hate us and are only competent in wielding power, you will never have a shortage of grand plans and actions to mock

No1's avatar

I hope not! Life would be dull without the ability to mock 😁

PFC Billy's avatar

So much snark.

If I weren't living in the country which decided instigating a global smash up was somehow preferable to their previous "managed" slow crash of global hegemon status, I'd be all about the schadenfreude.

Of course, if you are BlackRock? Now is a GREAT time to start buying up "distressed assets" for cheap- "the time to buy is when blood is in the water", we all know that. Maybe that's a good reason to cut a whole bunch of smaller business & property owner's throats?

Just talked to my farmer, he wisely bought his fertilizer last fall but doesn't have a diesel fuel contract locked in at the old price or nearly enough diesel (& LP, used for grain drying) already purchased & stored from before the prices spiked.

Greta Good's avatar

Here's hoping the Epstein crew are first on Kharg island. I mean they should, because they won it already.

bob kek mando's avatar

failed to mention that Operation Epstein Fury may result in the permanent discrediting of all Israeli controlled US politicians.

or it might get the US nuked. the US has now violated the Truce Flag twice within a calendar year, and murdered the leadership ( and members of his family ) under the Truce Flag. this would be as if Japan had killed FDR the same day they bombed Pearl.

further, Khamenei pere had issued a fatwah back in the 90s forbidding Iran from pursuing or using nuclear weapons. having murdered the issuer of the fatwah rather comprehensively refutes the fatwah, doesn't it?

as a bonus, we sent Khamenei to Paradise with his own virgin.

Janice's avatar

And Israel refuses to sign the non proliferation treaty ditto the bio wep treaty. Jfk was assassinated bc he didn’t want Israel having nukes.

Silvana Briand's avatar

The best tongue in cheek piece I've ever read bar none and there's a fair few out there competing... Kudos!

PFC Billy's avatar

Best summation I've seen so far:

"Not much of what he said was true but what does that matter when you’re justifying a war that was based on a lie?"

Lee's avatar

I am exhausted with all the winning. 🏅

Lar Sulrich's avatar

Hey! Looks like you made it on Vox Day's blog. https://voxday.net/2026/04/02/refinements/

No1's avatar

Wow! 😍