18 Comments
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occamsrazorback22's avatar

It's comforting to know that there is no investment that you can stop worrying about. More evidence here that one can fake their way through liberal arts classes but STEM rises to a whole

other level. I'm more likely to buy a nice property on a canal in Amsterdam...paid for with very special tulip bulbs...than comprehend the nuts and bolts of this post. I got what was charitably called a Gentlemen's "C" in my brief brush with anything mathematical in school.

I'm wondering what Frankfort, The City, Belgium and Euroclear will look like when the Russians decide to finally discipline the Euro-pirates with large amounts of carefully deposited Oreshniks?

"because that's where they keep the money...."

Willie Sutton's response when asked why he robs banks.

No1's avatar

At least the Hazelnut risk is straightforward. *poof* *gone*

No counterparty risk, no rehypothecation...

Refreshingly simple.

Protect & Survive's avatar

Yes, so true. But he also said, when asked about why he uses a gun: "You can get more with a kind word and a gun, than you can with a kind word alone".

Perhaps the Russians have a point here and have learned from Willie? UK/EU are building their guns at this very moment without the kind word: https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/the-financial-jigsaw-part-2-60-peace

No1's avatar

Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" comes to mind here. Love the article you linked, but it's not really related to this discussion - I've got plenty of other pieces covering corruption and war. Let's keep the comment section focused on the topic at hand.

Protect & Survive's avatar

OK understood - off topic - thanks

Neural Foundry's avatar

Outstanding breakdown of the actual quantum threat timeline versus the perception risk. The insight about panic being the realvulnerability before cryptographic failure is spot-on. When institutions like BlackRock flag quantum risks in filings while holders sit on exposed P2PK addresses, we're watching a slow-motion game of musical chairs where the music hasn't stopped yet but everyone's nervously eyeing the exits. Your point about 'quantum housekeeping' reframes those October movements perfectly - not evidence of breakthrough, but rational actors hedging against future uncertainty.The seven-year migration timeline you mentioned is the critical bottleneck nobody talks about enough.

Chris Collier's avatar

Interesting, but reveals my ignorance to what quantum and bitcoin are. Got to track down a quantum/bitcoin book for dummies...

No1's avatar

Well, crypto, I have already for you: https://no01.substack.com/p/crypto-explained-simply

That should at least make you sound knowledgeable about the topic 🤣

Quantum, not yet. Maybe I'll do one too. Not that I'm any better than anyone here, but I think I can dig up some basic information and let it be fact-checked by everyone of my readers 😉.

Cheesy Mouse's avatar

Pretty good. I learned something here and appreciate your take on the subject. That is, not giving in to the quantum computers hype. I'm not an expert, but have read a little on the subject. In my mind, quantum computing is a hype and a boondoggle. Akin to AI and EMP - as portrayed in hysterical media pieces.

BTW, BTC, being the pioneer in this area, was used by some later iterations of crypto currency to learn and improve. LTC is one of the oldest cryptos and implemented fixes and improvements over BTC. Now, we also have cryptos like ARR (The Pirate Chain), Monero and others who use better cryptography and other features which make them un or less traceable and crackable.

No1's avatar

I know 😉. But if you are here, I've got to warn you. I have a very healthy skepticism for these tokens. I'm willing to engage in fierce debate over it, as long as it stays polite.

I think there is a place for those blockchains that are developed. But as "money"? Not so much.

Just stating my position clearly here as you might be disappointed in some of my content.

Duh wun's avatar

Great explanation, best reasoning I’ve read on the big movements of the OG wallets.

voza0db's avatar

Since BTC is an absolute fraud - if the goal was indeed the one described in the "white paper" - who cares?!

ArchDukeFerdinand's avatar

Just get a safety deposit box and be done with it.

No1's avatar

As long as you don't put your passphrase on a piece of paper in there, you'll be safe. The best location for your BTC is in the purse of the Greater Fool.

Son of the South's avatar

If someone were compiling a book of aphorisms then this one would certainly be in it: "The best location for your BTC is in the purse of the Greater Fool." In fact, I'm putting it now right next to Denis' earlier one, "Keep the plan in sand and the goal in gold."

ArchDukeFerdinand's avatar

I tell you what. Sail into any port on the globe & pull out your virtual wallet full of your

virtual pseudo crypto coin and show it to the proprietor. He shall scratch his head. Then you can just pull out the book you bought on Amazon that explains the concept. He will scratch his head. Then pull out a US golden eagle coin, and he will understand it and do business with you.

No1's avatar

My understanding is that a wad of dollars does more than a coin of gold. 🙄

But I do agree with your statement that No1 knows what crypto is.