101 Comments
User's avatar
Corry Oakes's avatar

I'm with your "both" happening. I see no way for the manipulation to end until the silver paper market is exposed as a gambling lie. As long as calls can be bought to cover the puts they will.......... right up to that point where the percentage to buy curtails buying. When the loss becomes unmanageable.

Another great job. Thanks.

Debit Credit's avatar

It will be over once 2 billion humans across all borders and cultures start using silver coins in their daily lives. And that will happen. 1 gram coins (metric) will be common.

No1's avatar

I truly hope for that. But expect a LOT of volatility on the road to that point!

Because the Empire doesn't go silent in that good ol' night.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

What do you know about PSLV and CEF? I'm curious. In that past, but I didn't dig into this deep I read the "SLV" didn't really have the physical "backup" - but presumably - by "charter" PSLV and CEF MUST have this - and it is supposedly audited.

But no doubt - the price swings suggest -

"Something big is up" - and at the end of the day it boils down to the simplest economic truism regarding simple supply and demand is what I think. So physical is real supply - paper - it burns.

No1's avatar

PSLV down 0.19%, SLV down 14%.

I rest my case…

Maybe it’s COMEX breaking? Or simply because COMEX allows paper contract generation without any physical backing (I highlighted this in one of my articles), thus allowing more blatant manipulation of the markets.

james whelan's avatar

I am seeing both at -14%

No1's avatar

The minute you write something, the minute it’s outdated 🤣

james whelan's avatar

Just like yesterday its a sell off wider than Silver and Gold. Copper is down , not as much percentage wise, but significantly. as are 'rare earths' etc. I can't see these being part of a 'risk off' trade. So its either a liquidity issue with a major player ( given the public statements I would guess JPM) or a US Treasury move to scare off retail before they pivot from equities big time.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

Palladium has been "all over the place" - and meanwhile the one deserves higher value in my view - just cause I think in a way - is platinum!

Let me edit this - this is NOT investment advice!

🦬

Deskpoet's avatar
1dEdited

PSLV was just stopped and stared 20 minutes ago. It's still falling after its return.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

We all must know - these trades are unfair - I think I got just about enough to demand a silver bar from PSLV - so maybe tis time to get the paperwork going on that bullshit - wonder how long it takes for delivery!

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

It is when "differentiation" occurs between different entities some thought were alike that clarification starts happening. I await that.

Just like the "Gold-to-Silver" ratio has been out of whack so much the last few decades is my supposition.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

If I may - said clarification usually takes a bit of time to emerge. But the silver to gold ratio has returned to more "historical" ratios - all the while industrial demand for silver increases - so maybe in the future the ratio will be adjusted accordingly. Please keep up the good work, but don't "wear yourself out" fighting shadows!

Peace!

BK

Veracious Poet's avatar

Would love to see GSR flip back up to 110-120, like it did in 2011.

If CRIMEX could pull that trick off, before the inevitable, unstoppable rise of Ag to *true* price discovery, I'd be all over that arbitrage trade in a NY minute.

Always gotta keep looking for that silver lining ⛅

Does anyone *really* think/believe that silver mining/refining over the next decade, or so, will be able to replenish a 7 year deficit & keep up with tech/military demand?

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

Agreed on that.....but I still am curious - did the auditors do their job properly on PSLV and CEF? And did those entities hold true to what they claim?

If so, then they are sitting on a lot of value physical - and so I hope them vaults are well protected.

But if they ain't, then get ready for holy-hell to emerge when folks lose what they thought they had in bank accounts. You know - the "great taking" been planned in advance.

But little do they know I suppose the energy of those of us have contingencies in place and refute the theft they have planned.

Warm Regards,

BK

former's avatar

Hecla, -26% down for a week

https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=HL&id=p66664151992

Give me one more week like this, and I will start buying ;-)

Ed's avatar

I took profits a couple of days ago in HL because I decided not to be "too greedy". Lucky me :)

Veracious Poet's avatar

The Collapse Of Western Civilization: The Trump Years

The Capitalist Crony Clowns are working the Ivy League/Oxbridge associates 24/7, yelling at them "If you don't spoof PMs into cra$h territory you'll be flipping burgers at Mickey D's instead of heading to the Hamptons this summer!", "Don't worry, the SEC says they're looking the other way, matters of national security & all that Jazz." 🚽

All I want to know is how long until China/BRICS+ goes to Silver Squeeze 2.0?

Clocking is ticking...tick...tock...🕒

French_follower's avatar

As for the miners underperformance this week, they make total sense given silver and gold volatility. As always, the higher the volatility, the higher the discount rate on future cash flows....

As for the spot silver price, at the end of the day, what's to remember is that silver prices have not moved for the week. But that volatility is spiking.

The short term indicators I follow (Shangai premium, silver lease rate, silver backwardation curve) are still there and even increasing.

But we're facing tough times for the nerves, just like that last week of December

Bill's avatar

I will sell at $30 and still see a profit. Until that day I sit and watch, the whole reason to own it is a hedge against the impossible. Seems more likely every passing day.

Veracious Poet's avatar

Paper derivative betting vs. Physical delivery contracts 💣

What could go wrong in an environment where sourcing an *indispensable* element, where demand sucked resupply into a deficit 5-7 years ago, where *real* reality dictates there's at minimum a decade projected before achieving parity?

"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" ~ Sherlock Holmes

Fell Choice's avatar

I've only been reading a couple of months, but so far, Gold & Geo carefully does not give the best non-advice I'm reading anywhere.

Bill D's avatar

356 to 1? Leverage is a bitch on the way down.🤮

If COMEX can’t deliver, they may declare force majeure which will zero slv and your calls.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

So - they would be advised to let the derivatives trigger - otherwise - they will be I say with no passion - food for the reaper.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

After the derivatives "trigger" then it will become way more local - and that is better I say. Edit: Just ask the folks in Odessa - Odesa if you prefer - what they desire - and the catacombs there need to be investigated and then let Russia have what Russia deserves - and let those in Odesa have some peace deserved - Odessa beckons - as does Element #47 - that be silver - the Metal of Kings - even if it does tarnish.

There - now you know!

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

If they pull that rabbit out of the hat - get ready for holy-hell gruesome war - most will not survive - they will be terminated FIRST.

former's avatar

That is concerning! But I think, they will pull any other rabbit first, whatever that may be, before they declare force majeure. Just guessing here.

Angel 311's avatar

Too many scenarios with a simple explanation, stop looking for the sensational as for the front page of a tabloid. The market is starting to calm down. There was a "small" crisis in the last 60 days on the metal market (precious and base) in China. Tens of thousands of Chinese speculators bet in 2025 through all kinds of "financial boutiques" and with a huge leverage of 40x that gold and silver will rise. These boutiques did not hedge and when people asked for their money back + the huge profits they were no longer able to return the money. It was a kind of Chinese Ponzzi. The demand for precious metals exploded on the Shanghai stock exchange because all these boutiques tried to buy gold and silver. Transactions in Shanghai even made a premium of 10-15% compared to prices in London and New York (and this is after eliminating the 13% VAT in China). Huge quantities of gold and silver moved from London to Shanghai in January to cover the demand. The communist government, which does not tolerate these speculative manias (and rightly so), intervened to calm the market. This does not mean that I have changed my idea that silver will reach around $ 50 and gold $ 3000 -/+ 10% I hope this helps to solve the mystery. 🤣🤣

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

I find that explanation a bit simplistic. I beg to differ.

I think it all comes down to supply and demand - and the demand for silver - on contrast to gold - is increasing.

Have you factored that into your calculations?

Inquiring minds are curious.

BK

Angel 311's avatar

I'm wondering why you didn't copy my comment and check it with Grok? He will tell you if I was wrong or not. I checked my comment before, I don't like to give fake news. The silver and gold market could continue its correction or could continue to grow, I don't care. I just wait for entries at the correct prices for physical metal, I don't care about volatilities, I don't speculate on intermediate prices.😏

P.S.

I was only referring to the time of correction. I'm sorry I wasn't explicit.😔

No1's avatar

Maybe, but silver is STILL higher priced in Shanghai then at comex. I would agree wih you if premiums reduced. But they're only getting wider.

That tells me this is for the reasons as laid out. Let's see in a few months where we are 😊

Veracious Poet's avatar

Shhh...let the fishes sleep, Kramer has to have someone in his audience 🐑

The last two days *are* the Raison d'être that created to BRICS+ have to break away.

Combine the paper derivative shenanigans with no delivery/inventory, multiplied by geopolitical sabotage (sanctions/seizure of sovereign assets), you arrive at the event horizon that was heralded into existence by Capital Cronyism's talking head intel propagandists & pirates ☠️

"The game is rigged, but you cannot lose if you do not play." ~ The Wire

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

Per my wife's instruction - tis her account - I'm keeper of it - just sold half of it. Now the funds invested - are just "casino" money and my wife has what she desired and I do as well.

I am a smart man.

I don't need no damn Grok ai biased to tell me shit - no thanks.

Good day to you Angell 311

🦬

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

Oh - so Grok is male? Is that correct?

Plus - I sold some of my own as well - small allotments of it.

Angel 311's avatar

And you think that supplies, weapons and ammunition will save you if you buy silver at $30 and expect to sell it at $250-300? There are still at least 150 million armed people for a million wild animals. When you finish eating the last moose hoof hunted in the wild you will hunt each other if you consider as I consider that Gork could be a man and not a verification tool

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

Bug-off if you treat a commentor with disrespect. Bug off - you ain't no angel.

Edit - is for Gork or Grok - both seem most biased - so really - a man a women a verification tool you say - bug off and leave me alone. You parasite.

No1's avatar

Maybe let's all take a breather.

Those market swings are bad for even the most seasoned traders... And I've been through the wringer more than once already.

It's good that you got out already a bit. That was a lucky move!

My PF is back to where it was beginning of January... That hurts.

And no Angel, I still see higher prices 😁

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

I got no expectations. Hell-Bells per the instruction of my wife I just sold half of her position in PSLV - and now that is us $ denominated - correct?

But one wonders the value of bank accounts and shall I share a link about the great taking - just ask and I will. It is KNOWN - and defense are being put in place by those choose preparation - like good Boy Scouts always do.

former's avatar

You have bigger cajones than me!

But I'm not good at trading at all. I can do some LT sitting and holding... Shorter term trading backired to me way too many times.

I'm looking at all this in simple terms:

- clear parabola {check} (I rode up previous one (2010-2011) and I started buying silver way too soon - my first addition buying was at $36. Ouch! I can say I got a front seat look at what parabolas are.

- generally, at some kind of tops, can just be short term or med term, volatility increases big time {check}

- retail is selling so much, that refineries are not purchasing physical any more - more supply that demand {check} - can be short term only, but still...

On another hand, I'm most of the time wrong, so there is that! :)

Btw, Rick Rule sold 80% of his silver stash and moving money to miners. His rationale is pretty sound: For me to keep profiting from silver it needs to go higher. For miners silver can stay where it is or even drop some and miners will still print money. Makes sense.

But I'm cheap. I was extremly lucky, I have some multi baggers and I was reducing positions from September until now. To start buying miners, I want to see some 50% haicuts. Will it happen? Who knows, I'm clueless, but that is my plan. (wish, hope, etc...) ;-)

Terry Wespestad's avatar

If you really want to get into the nitty gritty of trading, you must learn chart analysis…support and resistance, trend channels, reversal and consolidation patterns, etc. A good place to start is with good old basic Dow Theory. Learn it inside out. Other techniques such as candlesticks and point & figure, etc helpful, but Dow Theory should be your bedrock for understanding markets (all markets). You can become very financially well off with just Dow Theory, a straight edge and a pencil.

former's avatar

Yep, Dow Theory is a good one, but you can't use it for ST leveraged trading :-) what I said I'm really bad at. LT I get more often lucky.

I do look at charts for +20 years, I sometimes 'see' things that come out as expected. But not reliable enough, for me, to be succesfull at short term trading.

Another tools are rotations like this: (miners) first move seniors, then soon to be miners, then developers, then juniors and at the end mose pastures if their name sounds right.

Or, gold first, copper next, after them, energy starts moving. (we are close to this point now)

And when oil is high enough, it puts brakes on miners (diesel is huge expense with miners). Well, high enough energy prices put eventually brakes on general markets too. But miners feels it first.

But none of what I wrote is much useful for ST leveraged trading, where I definitely suck :)

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

I gave up years ago - trying to "time" the market - that is what the casino owners hope folks do - to their own detriment.

No1's avatar

💯. However, when the market gives you 30% discounts in a day? I'll take that thank you very much 😁

Let's see if I'm right/lucky or badly wrong in a few months...

former's avatar

I hope you are right and you make a bunch. You are collecting a lot of karma with all your generous writting and sharing your knowledge, it surely takes a lot of your precious time, so it would only be fair.

My comment above was more in a sense, I'm not so smart and good, to be able to play these crazy volatile markets, especially with leverage (calls). Not, that I didn't try in the past, but I have been burned many times.

Miner I started selling in September, doubled up since, where I sold more few days ago. Looking now back, it would be smarter to wait :) And this proves how clueless I'm about the markets, I wouldn't be reducing if I was sure, it is going higher. I'm mostly just guessing and trying to pick up some crumbs here and there :-)

Hope it pays off for you. Beside, I will be profitting too, I still have some stuff in my PF. But, I also have a decent pertentage of cash now, for new potential opportunities down the road...

We are living in a very interesting times!

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

I did it - per my wife's council - but can't deny you influenced the decision. That ain't on you - tis on ME!

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

You and me both I reckon - I don't play the big games - but I got what I got - and I might be advised to follow my wife's advice and just cash out the original investment.

Time tells!

George Aldous's avatar

“Silver at $95 after hitting $121 yesterday? That’s either the buying opportunity of the year or a warning to get the hell out before the real crash begins.”

I think you answered your own question. The latter is unraveling very quickly now.

Angel 311's avatar

I'll give you another hint why the Chinese government stopped speculating with PMs. PMs are already starting to correct themselves upon hearing of the appointment of the new FED governor Kevin Warsh, a disciple of Paul Wolker (I hope you read his CV). It will be what I told you a week ago, he will have a hawkish policy, low interest rates, QT and an increase in taxes and the cost of living. The next few years will be hard for PMs but good for interest rates, even if they are low, the interest rates will be positive. I put a link to you because maybe my English and narrative will not be well understood by you. Save white money today for tomorrow's dark days and don't hope for silver over $50 and gold between $2000 and $3000 for a long period of time🤣🤣🤣🤣

https://substack.com/home/post/p-186292074

ViaVeritasVita's avatar

So glad I found you--only one month ago, alas. I had bought PSLV (and PHYS also) April-July '21, at $9-ish. The "fully allocated" aspect made it the winner. I had scoured the holdings of SILJ, SIL, GDX, GDXJ and chose their top miners. This account, newly opened at that time, is where I can "play"; financial advisor handles the rest conservatively. As I began to read today's post, I checked into Sprott: they're now warning that "this product" may lag for four weeks in delivery--you may receive tarnished or "lower condition" silver--but it's still going to be 1 troy oz....and Sprott usually says they'll buy back what they sold, but almost exclusively only what they had sold--this tarnished/lower condition warning suggests that they are not adhering to their policy. First Mint is slowing deliveries by 5-7 days --I think it was only about a week between order and delivery back in mid-November when I was buying Christmas presents.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

Maybe somebody needs to remind Sprott about their commitments. Shall I publish them here? I will - and I hope them auditors did a fair job - if if they are just part of the "game" get ready for more sales and more harm I reckon.

Buffalo_Ken's avatar

The point of the comment above is Sprott best be true to their word - if they ain't, then all bets are off - and get ready for holy hell to be upon us all.

But best for holy hell to be delivered - PRIOR to the "Great Taking" where the banks can literally claim collateral upon funds deposited - and tell me this - is that not bullshit rubbish - it is don't ya think?

So upon that I got a garden going and chickens as well. And literally - contingencies in place if they think they gonna steal it all - they got another thing coming. Holy Hell upon them I declare.

Let them reap what they have sown - let them get their own medicine.

~

How you like them apples?

Oh - and what is the spot price of silver just now I wonder?

John Day MD's avatar

Firewood is big this year...

RussTrommer's avatar

Sharing my comment to XRP_Manchester earlier:

Paper algo’s and fraudulent suppression banksters in the West, physical stackers and industrialists in the East - the price delta tells all. This silver episode has taught me a lesson in patience, and I am a willing student. Not selling this early. History like this unfolds over time, and this is a historic event. We’re only 4 months into it. Like you said, "nothing has changed" fundamentally.

No1's avatar

Hear hear brother! I'm buying 😜

Saxxon Creative's avatar

Aint it weird if you still want to buy a physical Silver coin or Taal it is still at the high price... and not the Paper Stock listed price.??

No1's avatar

I checked a few sites, and only in the US you can find something at close to spot. But most is sold out. In Europe you can still find a little, but at Thursday's prices. No need to look outside the West, as there you'll pay Shanghai prices.

Saxxon Creative's avatar

Perth Mint is 140 AUD a 1 Oz coin... so yeh its Buillion buying is closed. Everyone is hoarding physical they know the crash is coming. Manufactured Crash to reset the debt market and move everyone to HungerGames Crypto World coin.

Debit Credit's avatar

India now offers loans against silver collateral. "Listen" to what they do, not what they say.