50 Comments
User's avatar
Bill D's avatar

Thats why I’m an investor not a trader, the big boys have the big guns, I have a pea shooter. If the the fundamentals are still good I’ll add on weakness. To quote Graham “ in the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine

Veracious Poet's avatar

The only people that hurt in this game were the people playing "the big boys" games with paper...

NØ *physical* holders of Au/Ag (privately secured, not in commercial vaults) were harmed in this raid to deprive China of fuel for it's economic tech producers Ø

Bill D's avatar
2dEdited

Buying more SLVR. Looked to sell more 60 feb puts but not very fat premiums. Interesting, apparently buyers don’t think it will go down much more.

Veracious Poet's avatar

"Do you think that's Ag you're buying now?"

"None of this is real, none of it exists. It’s code, ones and zeroes..."

“It’s not really Silver, it’s ones and zeros, but there *are* ones and zeroes. There’s a representation of Ag in the code, somewhere.”

“This isn’t the real world,” said Morpheus.

"When you hold your SLVR shares in the Matrix, the animal spirits reflex sets in, and you start to panic."

“But my body isn’t in the pod there, it’s in the chair, so my silver in the virtual world and in the real world are disconnected.

"Morpheus watched him intently, then broke into a wide, gap-toothed smile. “Congratulations Neo. You’ve passed the first test.”

lorraine's avatar

To think I thought I knew what corruption meant. The current world “ hold my beer”. 🤦‍♀️

Rick Newman's avatar

Thank you so much for the write up. It sucks that SHME could not prevent the manipulation. They have more at risk than just the physical silver. China is trying to convince the world (most definitely BRICS) that they should be next in line to be the world’s reserve currency. They will back it with fractional Gold to provide confidence and stability. Without stability then no trust. That’s why eventually the dollar will lose its role in the world economy - eventually.

I hope they can tighten the screws for those of us investing in PM because we see the house is on fire. Time to move to safety.

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Shanghai is a leveraged market just like the LBMA and COMEX. So margins are required and vary - depending on market condition - up and down and usually rising as the contract gets closer to expiration. So - why do LBMA/COMEX get called "paper markets" and Shanghai doesn't? Confused ol' man here.......

Rick Newman's avatar

The SGE operates differently than many Western exchanges, with a strong focus on actual physical settlement, particularly for spot contracts.

Here are the key details based on SGE rules:

Physical Deposit for Sellers (Physical/Spot Contracts): According to the SGE's Detailed Delivery Rules, in physical contract trading (e.g., spot contracts), the seller must have the bullion to cover the transaction in their account at the time of order submission, and the Exchange will freeze it.

Physical Gold Accounts: Participants must set up a specific "physical gold account" (registered within trading hours) to engage in physical trading, rather than just a standard brokerage cash account.

The west is now a casino. No physical requires to back contract trading.

Gas Axe's avatar

I will just sit on my physical assets until the the flush.

BumbleBee's avatar

Meh. I was hoping for down into the $50’s, more of a fire sale, for long enough and time of day when I could grab some more. But I’ll take what I can get.

I love a sale! And when it’s a sale on something intrinsically valuable that’s becoming ever more scarce and coveted, yay! There’s only one way this ends, and that’s with silver being priced FAR higher than it is today.

Veracious Poet's avatar

Yesterday , USGOV hosted a Critical Minerals Ministerial with 50+ nations meeting in Washington to secure global supply chains.

At the same time, Donald Trump was moving forward with a U.S. critical minerals vault/stockpile, treating key metals the same way America treats oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

We can all see now that timing was not a coincidence 🚨

Looks like this was USGOV's plan all along, now you know who created/ran Mr. Asian Guy, the same people that run Mr. Slammy...

Looking forward to Mr. Slammy going on Asian Guy's show for an "economic" discussion 😂

EntangledWeb's avatar

You mean like the oil reserves they’ll just sell it when it’s politically expedient?

Veracious Poet's avatar

Or when The Fed needs to bail out one of their members when their vig falls short.

"It's a big club & you're ain't in it Mr. Xi" ~ Mr. Epstein Guy

French_follower's avatar

Silver is frankly a clown market.

At least i know the rules mainly thanks to you, and Karel Merck.

Veracious Poet's avatar

It's all "clown" markets for here on, Silver was just raided to secure "critical" assets before it all starts cra$hing:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-month-was-the-worst-january-for-layoff-plans-since-2009-challenger-131244531.html

Did ol' Karel tell/warn you about that tidbit?

Jason's avatar

An excellent summary. Thank you.

Comment removed
2d
Veracious Poet's avatar

No1, is 👆 that 👆 you?

Or do we have an imposter spamming ❔

No1's avatar

Imposter... Reported and banned. Officially my first ban!

John Day MD's avatar

"Guess what happens when those vaults hit zero."

Nuclear false flag? Help me here...

;-o

No1's avatar
2dEdited

Well, that's a topic for another day... Tired today 😉. I have a few ideas. None of them bode well for the fiat system... In the short term: everything will be swept under the rug. Because even China doesn't want to topple that particular cart just yet.

Veracious Poet's avatar

China is chained to the U$ofA, currently, like a drug dealer is chained to their supplier, even though the supplier has become hopelessly addicted to their own product.

China & Russia created BRICS in an attempt (perhaps failing), to create a new supplier...

The trick for BRICS, now, is how to coexist in a zombified world full of suicidal addicts without getting sucked into The West's event horizon.

I'm not sure it actually can be done without WWIII 💣

No1's avatar

I hope it does. Without having a ww4 fought with sticks and stones...

Veracious Poet's avatar

Crony Capitalists/USGOV wanted the SALT treaty to expire so it could presumably *bluff* that it is restarting the nuke arms race, from my deduction.

This is a *very* high stakes game of geopolitical poker, with Silver just the latest gambit...

If The People would've just helped peaceful sovereigns & industrial demand drain the vaults we might not be moving to the *next* card deal.

💣

One lone voice's avatar

The entire silver inventories of the SGE and SHFE is only 905 tonnes (29 million oz). It could all be purchased for only $2.2 billion. WTF?

An Ol' LSO's avatar

So what happens when it is impossible for the shorts to actually deliver the physical? In the paper market, they just rule you have to take US$, but since Shanghai is a physical exchange and my understanding puts must place the silver in SME warehouse - how does that work?

No1's avatar

That's the neat part - they default.

Shanghai is physical settlement only. No cash-out option like COMEX where they just hand you dollars and say "sorry, supply chain issues". If you're short and can't deliver the metal into an SGE-approved vault, you've failed to meet your contract obligations. Default.

Which is exactly why watching these vault drawdowns is so interesting. Unlike the paper games in the West where shorts can wiggle out via cash settlement or EFPs or whatever financial engineering trick is fashionable that month, Shanghai forces the question: do you have the metal or not?

The exchange has penalty mechanisms - fines, forced liquidation at market prices, suspension from trading. But if the metal genuinely isn't available, no penalty structure in the world conjures physical silver out of thin air. The contract holder is left hanging, the short is in default, and the exchange has to figure out how to unwind the mess.

This is why the total inventory number matters. 905 tonnes isn't just small - it's "one medium-sized fund could hoover this up in an afternoon" small. The entire visible inventory could disappear before lunch.

And if it does? That's when we'll find out if Shanghai's "physical delivery mandatory" rule is actually enforced or if they suddenly discover some "creative interpretation".

Herman Mills's avatar

The emperor is naked . Like in the story the longer everyone lies and pretend the more heads will roll. The question is for how much longer can this charade keep up ?

No1's avatar

Not that much longer if those violent moves are any indication. I see it as a cornered beast that is trashing. Hopelessly, because it knows it is fucked, but trashing nevertheless in the idle hope of escaping...

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Yep. Shanghai contracts are leveraged too. And, I thought China had restricted both gold and silver from leaving China. But it seems apparently not or the silver crash couldn’t happen! And, if there is only 905 tonnes existing as “available” how does this charade continue?

No1's avatar
2dEdited

I'll be writing up an article that I hope explains this better. Should be out tomorrow or the day after. (John MD also asked about those mechanisms)

Robert Curtis's avatar

I knew the paper price at the Crimex would be slammed, but I thought there would be a separation of the physical vs the paper price. They slammed the miners and the ETF's including PSLV as well.

Veracious Poet's avatar

“But my Silver isn’t in the trap here, it’s in the vault, so my investments in the virtual world and in the real world are disconnected. There’s some code somewhere that sends a message to the casino, which is unreachable, so nothing happens. It doesn’t matter to my physical Silver what happens in the virtual world. All that makes intuitive sense to me. But why does my virtual investments not need physical Silver? Your physical Silver absolutely should determine how strong you are in the Matrix, since the virtual traders have some model that follows its own rules.”

Neo made a fist and watched the tendons in his forearm. “It shouldn’t matter what I think about those rules.”

"It wouldn't matter Neo... if the Matrix simply directly implemented its rules as if they were laws of physics." Morpheus continued "For some reason, the Matrix is designed to conserves processing power by utilizing the expectations and mental processes of those connected to it."

Neo sat for a moment longer, as he realized he would have to relearn what he thought was a fundamental rule.

Moral Of The Story: You can only win in real world by awareness that Crony Capitalism virtual rules only apply in the real world if you choose to let them.

"You've been living in a dream world, Neo..."

"Welcome To The Desert Of The Real."

*Free Your Mind*

No1's avatar

This has the making of a crazy good short movie! Can I run with it? 😁 I don't know though about copyright if I use Neo/Morpheus' faces 😁

Veracious Poet's avatar

Go for it, I'm sure Keanu & Larry won't mind 😉

Duncan A Turner's avatar

"Guess what happens when those vaults hit zero?"

I think some people might be better at "guessing" the answer to this question than others. They might even be able to explain the precise reasoning behind their prediction, although it may turn out to be not much better than someone else's guess based on the flip of a coin or getting their tarot cards read.

The arguments based on fundamentals seems to be pretty well thought out and make sense to me. But what is happening obviously has nothing to do with fundamentals. Something illegal or criminal like a casino having a remote control magnet which can be switched on inside the roiltte wheel seems to be going on. Kinda like the vote counting machines in the 2020 elections. The pettern seems to be that "they" always get away with it, whatever "it" is in the particular case at hand..

Red's avatar

The problem is fiat everything! Nothing in screen land is real but is treated as if it has real value. It does not and at some point in the not too distant future this fallacy will play its last card. With fiat imagination has no limit, whether that is following made up rules or making new exceptions to them as you go along.

Mr. Simon Field's avatar

Britney Spears in school socks. Lift off.

John's avatar

All these ideas and theories are interesting, but I know this much.

GSR 50 is a wildly swinging door. From 90 to 45 (a rapid 2:1 outperformance by AG) to ~65.

With today's flush, mid 50s AG - former resistance - is coming into play. What are the odds that happens? 😲

No1's avatar

Overnight they tried to take out a few more stops. Let’s see what happens next.

Richard Roskell's avatar

Crazy stuff. Can anyone walk me through step by step exactly how they drive down the price of a futures contract? If they're selling contracts with lower and lower prices, who is buying them, he asked naively? Asking for a friend.

No1's avatar

Yeah, I'll answer tomorrow. For your friend 🤗

Richard Roskell's avatar

Thanks No1, but maybe I can save you the trouble. I asked Gemini AI for its opinion. Are these the manipulations you're aware of?

Gemini AI

"Traders, particularly large institutional "bullion banks," have historically used several high-frequency and, in some cases, illicit techniques to drive down the price of silver futures to cover short positions, a practice often referred to as "price suppression" or "tamping". The objective is to force the price lower, triggering stop-loss orders, which allows them to buy back contracts at a profit to cover their short bets.

Here is a detailed breakdown of the mechanisms used to drive down silver futures prices:

1. Spoofing and "Fill or Kill" Orders

A primary technique is spoofing, which involves placing large sell orders (or buy orders) with the intention of canceling them before execution.

The Technique: A trader places a massive, fake sell order just above the current market price, creating the illusion of heavy selling pressure.

The Impact: Algorithms and high-frequency trading (HFT) bots, which often react to order book imbalances, detect this massive supply and begin selling.

Covering the Short: The trader then cancels their huge fake sell order and immediately buys the contracts at the new, lower price, covering their short position for a profit.

2. "Stop-Loss Busters" and Price Tamping

Market participants have identified a pattern, sometimes called the "11 o'clock rule," where traders coordinate to dump silver futures at specific times, particularly when the price approaches technical resistance levels.

Targeting Stop-Losses: Traders, nicknamed "Stop Busters," aim to trigger the automated stop-loss orders placed by long-position investors. When these stop-losses are hit, they trigger a cascade of selling, causing a rapid price drop.

Tamping Down: If silver prices rise, these entities often aggressively sell futures into strength (known as "tamping") to prevent a breakout that would cause massive losses on their short positions.

3. Exploiting Low-Liquidity Windows

Traders often execute these price-driving maneuvers when market volume is thin, such as during the Asian trading session, on holidays, or shortly before the New York COMEX closing, when it takes less capital to move the price.

Overnight Raids: In low-liquidity environments, a moderate amount of short selling can trigger a massive percentage drop, creating a "forced covering" scenario for other market participants.

4. "Paper" Silver vs. Physical Reality

The silver market is characterized by a high ratio of "paper" silver (futures contracts) to physical metal.

Naked Short Selling: It is alleged that banks sometimes sell silver futures without holding the underlying physical metal (naked shorts), adding to the artificial selling pressure.

Leveraging Small Supply: Because the physical silver market is relatively small, these massive paper sales can overwhelm the physical market demand, allowing the price to be pushed down even when industrial demand is high.

5. Leveraging Margin Requirements

When silver prices do rise, exchanges (like the CME) often increase margin requirements.

Forced Liquidation: These higher margins increase the cost of holding positions, forcing smaller, overleveraged traders to close their positions.

Short Seller Advantage: While higher margins hurt everyone, if a short seller has more capital, they can use this volatility to force others out, while covering their own positions during the resulting dip.

Summary of the Cycle:

Short Position: Large traders take a massive short position.

Pressure: They sell massive amounts of, or spoof, silver futures, pushing the price down.

Panic: Stop-losses are triggered, causing a further "flash crash".

Covering: The traders buy back the futures at a lower price, covering their short position for a profit.

Note: While these practices have been documented, specifically by regulators investigating banks like JPMorgan, UBS, and Deutsche Bank (which paid significant fines for spoofing), they are illegal and do not guarantee a long-term bear market, as shown by recent surges to record highs."

No1's avatar

FYI: https://no01.substack.com/p/about-stock-buybacks-and-other-scams

I was more thinking to dig into how Shanghai works exactly. Because we all think SGE & SHFE is physical, and mainly it is. But the exploits happen on the non-physical side. And what are the repercussions... Interesting topic I assumed 😉

Richard Roskell's avatar

I was wondering about repercussions as well. Just recently China published a long speech by President Xi were he went into detail about China's financial markets. He made a strong point about how US-style financialization was not going to happen. He made an equally strong point about rapacious financial activity as well, and how that was not what they wanted to see.

Perhaps we'll get to see if China is willing to rein in its biggest oligarchs when they cross the line. Certainly they did it to Jack Ma. Some Evergrande execs even went to jail, and in China jail isn't a country club.

What's not clear to me is, how does the price of silver affected China? They're the world's biggest importer and exporter of silver. They're also the number 2 producer of silver out of their own mines. And of course they're a huge industrial user of silver. Does all that make them roughly price neutral, or on net do they prefer lower or higher prices?

The answer to that question might indicate what repercussions, if any, will happen.

No1's avatar

I think in this specific case it's a bit murky. The Chinese love to siphon all available resources that are still in the vaults. But at the same time they would likely prefer that their markets are seen as "stable" as compared to western casinos...

Veracious Poet's avatar

"Guess what happens when those vaults hit zero?"

The USGOV floor for critical minerals will be reached? 💡

Sounds like China has some traitors in high places with riches & power to use on America's behalf!

Makes me wonder what Xi discussed with Putin & Trump yesterday ㊗ 🈶 ㊙ (no idea what those symbols mean, nor the phone calls) 🔍

Things that make you go Hmm...

P.S. I remember someone predicting WWIII would start with cyber-warfare, maybe it was Martin Armstrong ❔☣︎ ☢️