"The IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri: "We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz"."
I am witnessing the deliberate and planned US implosion against itself in real time. The US and Israel, under clown Trump and Bibi, are now isolated from the world. Credibility is lost. The MIC has gone a bridge too far. Prepare accordingly.
It appears the Israelis lobbied for and executed a heretofore inconceivable Samson option: restart a war that already turned out badly once and bring on a second round that exhausted their adversary's previous disinclination to annihilate it.
Speculation, I know. But I can't help but wonder if the Stryker cyber attack was chosen specifically to interfere with the treatment of wartime injuries that we've been told don't exist.
On a different note, this guy replaced the usual hyperbole with a bit of wit. I'll bet that left a mark:
"The IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri: "We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz".
Regarding the Stryker cyber attack - this is my area of expertise (google me). I can confirm that it happened and that Handala was indeed behind it. The number of wiped devices exceeds the officially stated number of 200k. Like, significantly - think maybe 350k. But it includes not just PCs - also corporate-managed mobile devices. Maybe 200k is just the PCs.
Handala's modus operandi is to penetrate a target and then lay dormant there for a while, doing nothing. So, they've been in the company's networks for quite some time. No way to tell when - hard to do DFIR when everything is wiped. The company says "no malware was found", which could mean anything - from "no malware was found because all the contents of the disks is gone, including the malware" to "they did the wiping using only legitimate tools that were already present".
When you said "no malware was found", my first reaction was: everything is deleted. Of course nothing is found... (And yes, I know there are ways to retrieve stuff if you just hit delete, but let's not get technical here 😜)
"Although India?? Note to self: worth keeping an eye on that."
India has had good relations with Iran and, until Trump threatened to sanction its financial sector late last year, worked with Iran on developing port infrastructure at Chabahar. India has also delivered pharmaceuticals to Iran despite sanctions when asked.
Its engagement with Israel isn't directed against Iran, and the Iranians know it. And India doesn't do alliances. It's just a national thing since we gained independence. One of the core tenets of our foreign policy is that we will not be drawn into other people's wars.
I call b.s. on that. // Not “doing” alliances does not mean you don’t call out stuff (like Prof Bartov of Brown has), and esp if you have pretensions to be a “leader” of the Global South. // India has chickened out. // For what: some tech to counter Pakistan’s Chinese Air Force tech (aircraft, awac, BVR missiles, radar)? //
Calling stuff out achieves nothing of value except soothing one's own ego. India knows that because in the Nehru era, it called all manner of things out, achieving nothing of lasting value.
BTW, even the Chinese haven't called Israel out explicitly.
Is he accountable for the welfare of a billion+ people? No. So he has the luxury of airing his opinions without worrying about second and third order effects. Not that I disagree with his opinions.
If you’re going to keep your mouth shut bc speaking out will harm your population, fine, but then don’t claim to be a leader of/spokesman for The Global South. Just say, look, we don’t give a fuck about anyone or anything other than the welfare of our own population.
India's external affairs minister has said exactly that on multiple occasions ever since the Russia-Ukraine war began. To the EU's and US's face. If people haven't been paying attention, that is hardly his fault.
Italy’s Meloni just condemned the war and threw Trump under the bus. I guess Italy has decided to follow in the footsteps of Spain. How many more European dominos will fall?
If the EU wants oil and gas, they'll have to. They burned the bridge with Russia. Will they finally start to learn? Finally start to be afraid of the pitchforks when people go (finally) apesh*t when prices rise?
I was musing about a potential twist on the Iran-mining-the-strait story. Would it be feasible to control the mines remotely? In this hypothetical scenario, the strait is mined up the ying-yang but they only trigger if Iran identifies an unfriendly ship trying to enter. The remote trigger could also be fail-active, going live if communication is cut with the remote operator.
2) what even is the point of moving the THAAD radars? they'll just be destroyed again. i don't think this is a significant move in the military sense, but it will have long term diplomatic consequences. leaving an ally defenseless is not a good look for the u.s.
3) if bangladesh, china and india got passage through the strait of hormuz, wouldn't this help the long term supply shock (at least for ROW countries)? (that thai vessel that got struck should've tried going the diplomatic route instead of trying to brave the strait)
4) i didn't expect the iranian high command to be so funny. wdym they guarantee safety to anyone being escorted by an american destroyer. hilarious.
5) speculating on casualties with no data is a losers game, but based on the number of iranian casualties, israel must have at least some couple hundreds. yes, the iranians are better at targeting and try to discriminate between legitimate and illegitimate targets, but c'mon. the casualties on the israeli side must be staggering.
6) i don't quite see the reason to cyber-attack Stryker. wouldn't a bank or a data center be a more symetrical strike? every other operation i can understand in strategic terms. what exactly do the iranians get out of attacking a company that makes medical devices? the only motivation i can think of is industrial espionage.
i had been waiting for this update. the information is as good as always. this must take a lot of work. thank you!
1) Reunification? I doubt Kim wants it. He's got a captive population, some bombs to play with, and a seat at the table every time the region sneezes. Reunification means giving all of that up for what - a road trip to Seoul? He's not unhappy where he is. The only scenario where he moves is if internal pressure gets bad enough to need an external enemy. Right now, he's watching the US leave South Korea half-naked and enjoying every second of it.
2) Exactly right.
3) Partially yes. China, India, Bangladesh transiting freely does cushion the supply shock for a significant chunk of global consumption. But "ROW" isn't one bloc - European refiners dependent on Gulf crude don't have the same diplomatic option. And the US economy still runs on oil priced in dollars regardless of where the physical barrels go. The tollbooth hurts the system, even if some lanes stay open.
4) I loved it immediately when I saw it 😁
5) You're not wrong on the logic. I deliberately didn't speculate because I have zero data and the censorship is total. But the math doesn't add up...
6) riskywoods in the comments raised the surgical angle - degrade treatment capacity for casualties that officially don't exist. I think that's closer to the real answer than espionage. But honestly? Both can be true simultaneously. Disrupt their hospitals AND walk out with fifty terabytes. Not mutually exclusive.
Your math is off by a factor of 300. So even less than you imagined. $1B/day against a $3T deficit is 0.03% - not 10%.
That said...
The real issue isn't on the balance sheet at all. It's the trust collapse that doesn't have a line item. The first bombs dropped while negotiations were still active. Gulf states that spent decades buying American protection are now getting hit anyway - and the protector is incapable of protecting them. South Korea got a THAAD - America's most advanced missile defense system - planted on their soil as a "loan". That loan just got recalled. Unilaterally.
Every one of these countries quietly asks the same question: if the dollar's reserve status rests partly on American security guarantees... and those guarantees are now apparently negotiable mid-sentence... what exactly are they holding?
You can't put a price on that. Which is precisely why nobody does. And why it'll blindside everyone when it finally shows up in Treasury auction demand.
So if you want my opinion: no way that's worth it. No matter the side you feel most aligned with.
I also read on ZH that almost 50% of the available global LNG transport ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf. If true, that is scary for countries reliant on their seaborne supply.
"The IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri: "We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz"."
EPIC level trolling.
One for the ages.
I am witnessing the deliberate and planned US implosion against itself in real time. The US and Israel, under clown Trump and Bibi, are now isolated from the world. Credibility is lost. The MIC has gone a bridge too far. Prepare accordingly.
It appears the Israelis lobbied for and executed a heretofore inconceivable Samson option: restart a war that already turned out badly once and bring on a second round that exhausted their adversary's previous disinclination to annihilate it.
A financial asteroid has hit a distant ocean. No-one is noticing the horizon - yet.
Landfall who knows..? I'm estimating 2-3 weeks.
No1 sees it. 🫡
The Collective West are still captured/on board.
Once again, thank you for your daily reporting! It's the best coverage I've been able to find.
Speculation, I know. But I can't help but wonder if the Stryker cyber attack was chosen specifically to interfere with the treatment of wartime injuries that we've been told don't exist.
On a different note, this guy replaced the usual hyperbole with a bit of wit. I'll bet that left a mark:
"The IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri: "We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz".
i was wondering about the motivation for such an attack. interfering with the treatment of wartime injuries sounds like it might fit the bill.
Or it could be that it’s a front at least in part for something else
Regarding the Stryker cyber attack - this is my area of expertise (google me). I can confirm that it happened and that Handala was indeed behind it. The number of wiped devices exceeds the officially stated number of 200k. Like, significantly - think maybe 350k. But it includes not just PCs - also corporate-managed mobile devices. Maybe 200k is just the PCs.
Handala's modus operandi is to penetrate a target and then lay dormant there for a while, doing nothing. So, they've been in the company's networks for quite some time. No way to tell when - hard to do DFIR when everything is wiped. The company says "no malware was found", which could mean anything - from "no malware was found because all the contents of the disks is gone, including the malware" to "they did the wiping using only legitimate tools that were already present".
Thanks for the background! Mightily interesting.
When you said "no malware was found", my first reaction was: everything is deleted. Of course nothing is found... (And yes, I know there are ways to retrieve stuff if you just hit delete, but let's not get technical here 😜)
I really appreciate your bulletins and analysis. Keep the humour as well, it helps a bit when reading about the developing Armageddon
OUCH!
"We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz".
TOUCHE'!
"Although India?? Note to self: worth keeping an eye on that."
India has had good relations with Iran and, until Trump threatened to sanction its financial sector late last year, worked with Iran on developing port infrastructure at Chabahar. India has also delivered pharmaceuticals to Iran despite sanctions when asked.
Its engagement with Israel isn't directed against Iran, and the Iranians know it. And India doesn't do alliances. It's just a national thing since we gained independence. One of the core tenets of our foreign policy is that we will not be drawn into other people's wars.
Thanks for the background!
I call b.s. on that. // Not “doing” alliances does not mean you don’t call out stuff (like Prof Bartov of Brown has), and esp if you have pretensions to be a “leader” of the Global South. // India has chickened out. // For what: some tech to counter Pakistan’s Chinese Air Force tech (aircraft, awac, BVR missiles, radar)? //
Calling stuff out achieves nothing of value except soothing one's own ego. India knows that because in the Nehru era, it called all manner of things out, achieving nothing of lasting value.
BTW, even the Chinese haven't called Israel out explicitly.
Wow, Prof Bartov called out genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity too sooth his ego?
Is he accountable for the welfare of a billion+ people? No. So he has the luxury of airing his opinions without worrying about second and third order effects. Not that I disagree with his opinions.
If you’re going to keep your mouth shut bc speaking out will harm your population, fine, but then don’t claim to be a leader of/spokesman for The Global South. Just say, look, we don’t give a fuck about anyone or anything other than the welfare of our own population.
India's external affairs minister has said exactly that on multiple occasions ever since the Russia-Ukraine war began. To the EU's and US's face. If people haven't been paying attention, that is hardly his fault.
Link to the official readouts?
Italy’s Meloni just condemned the war and threw Trump under the bus. I guess Italy has decided to follow in the footsteps of Spain. How many more European dominos will fall?
If the EU wants oil and gas, they'll have to. They burned the bridge with Russia. Will they finally start to learn? Finally start to be afraid of the pitchforks when people go (finally) apesh*t when prices rise?
Stupidity on full orange display
Reuters is Zionist owned as far as I can find out soo...,
They did a bang up job of info warfare during Covid...
The next targets will be the refueling aircraft.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4432850/loss-of-us-kc-135-over-iraq/
Yours should be the hottest stack No1.
I was musing about a potential twist on the Iran-mining-the-strait story. Would it be feasible to control the mines remotely? In this hypothetical scenario, the strait is mined up the ying-yang but they only trigger if Iran identifies an unfriendly ship trying to enter. The remote trigger could also be fail-active, going live if communication is cut with the remote operator.
some thoughts:
1) is reunification approaching for the koreas?
2) what even is the point of moving the THAAD radars? they'll just be destroyed again. i don't think this is a significant move in the military sense, but it will have long term diplomatic consequences. leaving an ally defenseless is not a good look for the u.s.
3) if bangladesh, china and india got passage through the strait of hormuz, wouldn't this help the long term supply shock (at least for ROW countries)? (that thai vessel that got struck should've tried going the diplomatic route instead of trying to brave the strait)
4) i didn't expect the iranian high command to be so funny. wdym they guarantee safety to anyone being escorted by an american destroyer. hilarious.
5) speculating on casualties with no data is a losers game, but based on the number of iranian casualties, israel must have at least some couple hundreds. yes, the iranians are better at targeting and try to discriminate between legitimate and illegitimate targets, but c'mon. the casualties on the israeli side must be staggering.
6) i don't quite see the reason to cyber-attack Stryker. wouldn't a bank or a data center be a more symetrical strike? every other operation i can understand in strategic terms. what exactly do the iranians get out of attacking a company that makes medical devices? the only motivation i can think of is industrial espionage.
i had been waiting for this update. the information is as good as always. this must take a lot of work. thank you!
Quick takes:
1) Reunification? I doubt Kim wants it. He's got a captive population, some bombs to play with, and a seat at the table every time the region sneezes. Reunification means giving all of that up for what - a road trip to Seoul? He's not unhappy where he is. The only scenario where he moves is if internal pressure gets bad enough to need an external enemy. Right now, he's watching the US leave South Korea half-naked and enjoying every second of it.
2) Exactly right.
3) Partially yes. China, India, Bangladesh transiting freely does cushion the supply shock for a significant chunk of global consumption. But "ROW" isn't one bloc - European refiners dependent on Gulf crude don't have the same diplomatic option. And the US economy still runs on oil priced in dollars regardless of where the physical barrels go. The tollbooth hurts the system, even if some lanes stay open.
4) I loved it immediately when I saw it 😁
5) You're not wrong on the logic. I deliberately didn't speculate because I have zero data and the censorship is total. But the math doesn't add up...
6) riskywoods in the comments raised the surgical angle - degrade treatment capacity for casualties that officially don't exist. I think that's closer to the real answer than espionage. But honestly? Both can be true simultaneously. Disrupt their hospitals AND walk out with fifty terabytes. Not mutually exclusive.
Thank you, No1.
Please note that $1B a day with a $3T deficit is just 10% of it. Isn't that all worth it?
Your math is off by a factor of 300. So even less than you imagined. $1B/day against a $3T deficit is 0.03% - not 10%.
That said...
The real issue isn't on the balance sheet at all. It's the trust collapse that doesn't have a line item. The first bombs dropped while negotiations were still active. Gulf states that spent decades buying American protection are now getting hit anyway - and the protector is incapable of protecting them. South Korea got a THAAD - America's most advanced missile defense system - planted on their soil as a "loan". That loan just got recalled. Unilaterally.
Every one of these countries quietly asks the same question: if the dollar's reserve status rests partly on American security guarantees... and those guarantees are now apparently negotiable mid-sentence... what exactly are they holding?
You can't put a price on that. Which is precisely why nobody does. And why it'll blindside everyone when it finally shows up in Treasury auction demand.
So if you want my opinion: no way that's worth it. No matter the side you feel most aligned with.
Seems I should have put a sarc tag on my comment.
As for the money: let's compare apples to apples. $1B a day is about $300B a year and that was the number to consider w/r to the deficit.
My question was referring to (in)famous Madeleine Albright quote about killed Iraqi children.
Never f*ing worth it. This time neither. Peace.
"...it will have long term diplomatic consequences. leaving an ally defenseless is not a good look for the u.s."
American credibility is rapidly evaporating. Thanks to "Bull-in-China-Shop" Trump. Who needs an ally who creates mayhem everywhere?
I also read on ZH that almost 50% of the available global LNG transport ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf. If true, that is scary for countries reliant on their seaborne supply.
USrael !!!!
That was coined in the article by No1, something we could use sparingly as we speak.
Hey, I think I used it in a comment first.
It wasn't mine. I legally stole it 😂. Could be John's.
The first occurence I found is here : https://substack.com/profile/73723447-no1/note/c-216821476#comment-216821476#comment-216821476 - and that was mine... Maybe it was VP? He has a flair for words.