This is now the nth time the west has negotiated in bad faith (Ukraine included). I don't see any other solution than total war until one side is completely bankrupted.
Same goes for Ukraine. Putin would be stupid to believe anything the West is offering. For Ukraine this will probably mean total destruction.
I agree with you. Like I said in another comment when asked why they would even still be negotiating: they're playing to a different audience.
Iran will be resolved until one side is bankrupt as you said. Barring any huge breaking in the chain of command in Iran, I doubt it'll be Iran.
Same for Ukraine. Ukraine is done for. It IS already destroyed. Just look at the demographics of that country. It'll be a backwater for multiple generations.
This war is entering an unknown territory. The fact that US, through Trump, seems over confident, worries me. While there will be Iranians who will rejoice and look forward to positive changes, if this war enlarges in terms of scope and depth, such changes may still remain an unfulfilled wish.
Well, I guess we'll see over the next 4 weeks how the enumeration of Persian "western" leaning people vs. the Iranian "Shia" Islamic cultists.
Depending on the numbers divided by whoever grabs control of whatever .MIL hardware remaining will determine if this is an existential fight to the last man or an event transition of power to something more rational & peaceful.
Sunni vs. Shia has been an age old blood feud for millennia, the Ottoman Turks when faced with Islamic forces combined in Mesopotamia retreated rather then fight them...
The Turks knew that eventually they'd go back to fighting/weakening each other, that they could return to command & control of the region with little resistance, which is what they did.
Most people in The West have little understanding of how mind-washed the Iranian people have been since 1979, especially the low IQ men, if not for the Internet it would be close to 100%, like it was 20+ years ago.
I hate to say it, the whole regime change via push button warfare may *fail* leaving only boots on the ground & massive carnage, which frankly is probably out of the question.
No1 knows, but we shall see by this time next month.
Edit: Reading the room here, especially given U$ gen pop's disapproval numbers, but when Trump says it's a 4 week op, I believe that's all they've planned for, hoping to kill as many "bad" guys surgically possibly, destroy Iran's nuke program & as many "El Supremo" loyalists as possible.
Going into Iran with conventional forces was never the plan, Intel's probably telling them the majority of Persians are ready for peace, prosperity, democracy & tik tok, like yesterday.
We'll see if the "Alliance" can close Pandora's box in a month's time, but in the meantime a lot of whack-a-mole will be happening, & not just within Iran's borders either 😐
And a lot of higher-ups are saying that they only have bullets for 2?
Plus, in the past 12 day war, they expended around 25% of their inventory. Minus what Ukraine is using. So I think 2 weeks give or take a few days sounds about accurate to me.
I am ever so grateful you write these summaries. It saves me from watching the news or looking up anything. I have a crazy high level of empathy and I avoid the news as part of my emotional management. However I cannot live under a rock. Please get some rest- you do great work. 🙏
I can relate on how you feel. The more I read, the angrier I become. However something clicked about 5-7 years ago. Some kind of detachment. I still see it, I still feel angry and hopeless, but it doesn't touch my "core" anymore. It's compartmentalised now. I don't know how I did it, otherwise I'd teach you. But just to point out: it IS possible.
That place you speak of - is my daily work. First I had to understand what the problem was, or why I react differently. Now It’s how can I work on the personal changes needed to keep my peace.
I did the same thing 20 years ago. I now focus on what I can change and report on, and emotionally ignore what I can't - for what it's worth. And your reporting makes it eminently enjoyable.
For now, looks to me that war is escalating, with previously mostly "friendly US neutral countries" positionning themselves to go in (Gulf States, France, UK).
What remains to be seen is if current Iranian attacks are the last hurrah before the end or a real coordinated response. The staggering number of Iranian top leadership killed make me on the fence on this one.
You don't let your Defense minister, your chief of army, as well as countless other leaders be killed on the first 48 hours of a war if you have a control on anything.
On the other side, you only need periodic drones attacks to close the Hormuz strait. This thing is gonna be the weak spot of NATO
I think the Gulf states will mainly be posturing. Iran can simply send a few missiles in their oil refineries to stop the flow of money. They already stopped the flow of oil. Combined, that's a death sentence for those regimes. People don't riot if they have it good.
And yes, I agree with your leadership-take(out). I do think Mossad/CIA/MI6 are very capable adversaries. It's not an excuse per-se. But No1 fought against the US in a long while...
I compare this to the Russian SMO. The first year was rough, lots of (leadership) changes. I compare this to a machine that has been rusting for a long while and is now asked to work again. Things will break, cogs need to be replaced... In this case: the command structure was pre-determined already. They anticipated that leadership WOULD be taken out. Else you don't go back to 2h reaction timings. I'm sure it hurts though.
Great work No1. Now I have a migraine too. I’m so demoralized that we’ve started another war. It’s like we can never learn. 20 years of war already, and 40 trillion in debt because of it.
Great piece. What are your thoughts on the Dubai gold/silver refineries likely going offline? I believe it has the most capacity for silver refining outside of China and Switzerland. Could this add further stress to an already tight silver market or is this a nothing burger? Thanks
Thanks for the sitrep. It’s a lot; I have a migraine now. Praying for peace
🕯
Great work, thank you. Sympathies for the migraine, it's hard to work through them.
Thanks! It's not that bad. I've had worse 🤩. But I'm all better now after a full night's sleep.
Thanks for your summary, it looks objective and suspending. Anything can happen at any time. Summer 2025 won’t happen again.
This is now the nth time the west has negotiated in bad faith (Ukraine included). I don't see any other solution than total war until one side is completely bankrupted.
Same goes for Ukraine. Putin would be stupid to believe anything the West is offering. For Ukraine this will probably mean total destruction.
I agree with you. Like I said in another comment when asked why they would even still be negotiating: they're playing to a different audience.
Iran will be resolved until one side is bankrupt as you said. Barring any huge breaking in the chain of command in Iran, I doubt it'll be Iran.
Same for Ukraine. Ukraine is done for. It IS already destroyed. Just look at the demographics of that country. It'll be a backwater for multiple generations.
This war is entering an unknown territory. The fact that US, through Trump, seems over confident, worries me. While there will be Iranians who will rejoice and look forward to positive changes, if this war enlarges in terms of scope and depth, such changes may still remain an unfulfilled wish.
Thanks for your dedicated efforts to keep the community informed and filtering out the noise
Well, I guess we'll see over the next 4 weeks how the enumeration of Persian "western" leaning people vs. the Iranian "Shia" Islamic cultists.
Depending on the numbers divided by whoever grabs control of whatever .MIL hardware remaining will determine if this is an existential fight to the last man or an event transition of power to something more rational & peaceful.
Sunni vs. Shia has been an age old blood feud for millennia, the Ottoman Turks when faced with Islamic forces combined in Mesopotamia retreated rather then fight them...
The Turks knew that eventually they'd go back to fighting/weakening each other, that they could return to command & control of the region with little resistance, which is what they did.
Most people in The West have little understanding of how mind-washed the Iranian people have been since 1979, especially the low IQ men, if not for the Internet it would be close to 100%, like it was 20+ years ago.
I hate to say it, the whole regime change via push button warfare may *fail* leaving only boots on the ground & massive carnage, which frankly is probably out of the question.
No1 knows, but we shall see by this time next month.
Edit: Reading the room here, especially given U$ gen pop's disapproval numbers, but when Trump says it's a 4 week op, I believe that's all they've planned for, hoping to kill as many "bad" guys surgically possibly, destroy Iran's nuke program & as many "El Supremo" loyalists as possible.
Going into Iran with conventional forces was never the plan, Intel's probably telling them the majority of Persians are ready for peace, prosperity, democracy & tik tok, like yesterday.
We'll see if the "Alliance" can close Pandora's box in a month's time, but in the meantime a lot of whack-a-mole will be happening, & not just within Iran's borders either 😐
""Trump says it's a 4 week op"".
And a lot of higher-ups are saying that they only have bullets for 2?
Plus, in the past 12 day war, they expended around 25% of their inventory. Minus what Ukraine is using. So I think 2 weeks give or take a few days sounds about accurate to me.
This was very well thought through... /s
Thanks, lot of us are having bad sleep lately!
Thank you.
I'm off to buy 100 litres of diesel
I am ever so grateful you write these summaries. It saves me from watching the news or looking up anything. I have a crazy high level of empathy and I avoid the news as part of my emotional management. However I cannot live under a rock. Please get some rest- you do great work. 🙏
I can relate on how you feel. The more I read, the angrier I become. However something clicked about 5-7 years ago. Some kind of detachment. I still see it, I still feel angry and hopeless, but it doesn't touch my "core" anymore. It's compartmentalised now. I don't know how I did it, otherwise I'd teach you. But just to point out: it IS possible.
That place you speak of - is my daily work. First I had to understand what the problem was, or why I react differently. Now It’s how can I work on the personal changes needed to keep my peace.
I did the same thing 20 years ago. I now focus on what I can change and report on, and emotionally ignore what I can't - for what it's worth. And your reporting makes it eminently enjoyable.
For now, looks to me that war is escalating, with previously mostly "friendly US neutral countries" positionning themselves to go in (Gulf States, France, UK).
What remains to be seen is if current Iranian attacks are the last hurrah before the end or a real coordinated response. The staggering number of Iranian top leadership killed make me on the fence on this one.
You don't let your Defense minister, your chief of army, as well as countless other leaders be killed on the first 48 hours of a war if you have a control on anything.
On the other side, you only need periodic drones attacks to close the Hormuz strait. This thing is gonna be the weak spot of NATO
I think the Gulf states will mainly be posturing. Iran can simply send a few missiles in their oil refineries to stop the flow of money. They already stopped the flow of oil. Combined, that's a death sentence for those regimes. People don't riot if they have it good.
And yes, I agree with your leadership-take(out). I do think Mossad/CIA/MI6 are very capable adversaries. It's not an excuse per-se. But No1 fought against the US in a long while...
I compare this to the Russian SMO. The first year was rough, lots of (leadership) changes. I compare this to a machine that has been rusting for a long while and is now asked to work again. Things will break, cogs need to be replaced... In this case: the command structure was pre-determined already. They anticipated that leadership WOULD be taken out. Else you don't go back to 2h reaction timings. I'm sure it hurts though.
Excellent update, NO1.
More importantly, take care of the headache.
Don't think about anything for a while ease brain pressure.
Great work No1. Now I have a migraine too. I’m so demoralized that we’ve started another war. It’s like we can never learn. 20 years of war already, and 40 trillion in debt because of it.
I think it's the Chinese spokesperson who said (a while ago) something like "of the 245 years the USA exists, it has been only 16 years at peace".
It's cutting corners, and very political loaded, but as a one-liner, it carries a lot of truth.
Many thanks NO 1 for your hard work and great reporting. It is very much appreciated.
Meanwhile, in Nancy News...
Great piece. What are your thoughts on the Dubai gold/silver refineries likely going offline? I believe it has the most capacity for silver refining outside of China and Switzerland. Could this add further stress to an already tight silver market or is this a nothing burger? Thanks
200 million Shia Muslims worldwide are likely to express their disdain. The only viable equation is: Israel killed their POPE and his relatives.
This is going to be a decade or two of deep stress for the West.