Take 3.
Ready?
Set!
Aaaaand ACTION!
Something’s brewing between Israel and Iran. Again. But it’s not what the typical headlines will sell you.
The June 2025 “12-day war” looked devastating on paper. Israel struck Iran. Iran fired back with hundreds of missiles. The US joined with B-2 bombers. Everyone claimed victory. Ceasefire brokered. War over.
Except here’s what didn’t happen: radiation leakage.
You know what happens when you blow up active nuclear facilities? Chernobyl-level panic. Radiation monitors screaming. IAEA emergency sessions.
Instead?
Silence.
And the air defenses in the runup: odd how those “devastating” strikes didn’t cause secondary explosions. You know when you hit something combustible with a bomb, it generally goes BOOM-BOOM. Not just your own BOOM. Fuel igniting. Munitions cooking off. Massive fireballs. Typical Hollywood stuff you know.
But nope.
Neat little craters. No secondary blasts. Just precision holes where “launchers” used to be.
*nodding heavily* Yeah right “launchers”, “air defense”…
*cough* decoys. *cough* Inflatable missiles. *cough* Dummy targets.
Iran’s played this game for decades. Israel knows it. The US knows it. Everyone knows it.
So what actually transpired?
Carefully choreographed theater where everyone got to claim victory.
Israel told its audience: “We devastated Iran’s nuclear program”!
Iran told its audience: “We showed restraint and our defenses held”!
The US told its audience: “We supported our ally and prevented proliferation”!
Trump brokered a ceasefire and moved on.
Everyone wins. Nobody loses. Perfect.
But the death toll was real—over 1,000 Iranians including some high-value targets. War has actual costs.
But the strategic narrative about “devastating nuclear strikes” doesn’t match physical evidence.
If the US actually sent seven B-2s into Iranian airspace, Iran would have scrambled everything. Instead? No Iranian fighters went up. My best guess: just Tomahawk cruise missiles flying predictable paths both sides could track.
Because nobody wanted to accidentally escalate this into an actual war.
Fast forward to now. September 30, 2025.
Iran’s Foreign Minister flew to the Kremlin hours ago.
The timing matters.
UN sanctions snapped back September 28—two days ago. Iran’s economy is genuinely collapsing. The rial lost 22% in a month. Food prices up 300%. This isn’t theater. This is economic warfare. And for once it actually works.
In January, Russia offered Iran a mutual defense pact. A real Article 5 commitment.
Iran refused.
Think about that. You’re facing potential strikes from the world’s most advanced military. Your economy’s imploding. And you turn down a Russian security guarantee?
Too proud. Too committed to independence. Too worried about becoming a Russian client state.
So they’re going at it alone, asking for weapons but not protection.
Add: Quantico
Defense Secretary Hegseth summoned hundreds of flag officers to Quantico. September 30.
Official story? “Warrior ethos” speech. Fitness standards. Culture war stuff.
But you don’t summon the global command structure for just a pep talk.
All warfare is based on deception.
— Sun Tzu
It’s just a coincidence that it happens on the same day as Iran’s Moscow meeting.
It’s just a coincidence that it happens the same week a bunch of US tankers are deployed to Europe.
It's just a coincidence that a bunch of naval assets are in the vicinity.
It’s just a coincidence that it happens on the same moment that UN sanctions went live.
If you believe that, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell to you.
You gather all your commanders when you need absolute operational security and in-person coordination. Video calls get intercepted. Emails leak.
Hundreds of generals in one room? That’s how you coordinate a complex, multi-theater operation.
Venezuela’s heating up. Iran’s rebuilding. Taiwan tensions rising.
Connect the dots.
In the initial June war, both sides took real hits. Both demonstrated they can strike each other. Both learned they’re vulnerable.
But the “devastation” narrative? Domestic consumption.
Israel needs to show strength to justify policies and reassure the public. (or if you’re really into conspiracy: Netanyahu needs to stay out of the courts)
Iran needs to show resilience to maintain legitimacy and deter attacks.
The US needs to show effectiveness to justify spending.
So everyone agrees on a narrative that lets them all “win” while avoiding total war nobody wants.
But here’s what’s actually urgent:
Iran is rebuilding its missile production. Confirmed by satellite imagery. They’re importing components from China—mixers, guidance systems, processors.
Russia is delivering S-400 systems. Finally. Not enough for a comprehensive defense, but enough to make the next strikes more dangerous.
Fordow remains untouched. Underground. Unreachable with current weapons. That’s probably where the serious enrichment continues.
And Iran is likely moving toward a nuclear weapons decision.
Not because they want to use one. But because it’s the only real deterrent that actually works.
Israel won’t strike a nuclear-armed Iran the way it strikes a threshold Iran. Pakistan proved that. North Korea proved that.
Once you have the bomb, the calculus changes completely.
Israel knows this. The US knows this.
That’s why the military buildup is real even if the June strikes were theater.
The September tanker deployments? Real.
The THAAD batteries deployed to Israel? Real.
The carrier strike groups? Real.
Because the next round won’t be choreographed.
If Iran starts enriching to 90% (which it can do in weeks). If intelligence confirms weaponization work. If the nuclear sprint begins. Then you’ll see the actual strikes. Actual attempts to destroy hardened facilities.
And Iran will respond with everything it has. Not calibrated. Everything.
Iran can’t afford to keep getting hit without full retaliation. It signals weakness.
But Iran knows it can’t win a total war against the US-Israel alliance.
So they’re racing toward the one thing that equalizes: nuclear capability.
Israel can’t allow that. It violates their fundamental security doctrine.
The US can’t allow that. Not after Trump’s “zero enrichment” demand.
Nobody can back down. Everyone has to escalate.
That’s why something’s brewing.
The military pieces are moving. The diplomatic channels are closing. The economic pressure is maximizing.
Not theater this time. The real thing.
Because when you trap two adversaries where neither can afford to lose, where both need escalation, where compromise equals political death—you get war.
The question isn’t if.
It’s when.
Another outstanding analysis.
The 800+ generals meeting is about Venezuela. No doubt about it. Trump wants to strike very soon and have a blietz Panama style decapitation triumph. The US urgently need Venezuelan oil and gold. Many years of unhinged hitmen mainhem across Latin America, raised a very bad abusive colonizing criminal habits to the point the US believe every ressource in the America belong to them (the oligarchy of course), and that including the gigantic drug trafficking flooding into the US which pretty much feed the whole deep state and political theatrics system. Now, Maduro is blocking that traffick, which is doubledowning the states in a maniac way. On top of that, add a looming stock market crash, dollar freefalling devaluation, gold rising, steroid QE, and you have a terminal junky on derivatives, eager to cannibalize his mother for another shot. I cast a prediction. In less than a week, the US is going to lauch a massive operation on Venezuela, probably including tactical nuclear weapons. There is no limit here. They need derivative covering collateral now, yesterday...
As for Venezuela, the dice are cast. This is the fire test for every wannabe decolonizing revolution. The Dutch, for instance, were at war with Spain for 80 years before the latter recognized they existed. Chavez and Maduro have done what they possibly could, mostly succesfully. The union between politiced masses and the army was the goal, it was tried, together with an ambitious rearmement program. However, and sadly, often times good intentions cannot cope with crime and sin. Alea jacta est...