138 Comments
User's avatar
Stoic Investor's avatar

Trump as a 5D Chess player (for anything) is MAGA swamp fever talk.

Rond's avatar

Some guy at Langley can't believe "Trust da Plan" is still alive in the wild.

Dave Carlson's avatar

Trump prattling on about his Sharpie signing pen is the MAGA version of Genocide Joe nibbling on some hapless child or wandering off-stage, or W giving A. Merkel an unsolicited back rub, or Ronald Reagan for that matter... These dolts are deranged, depraved, and dysfunctional, but they are figure heads of oligarchic interests and concentrations of power.

The MAGA cultists are entirely serious about autarky and "OUR hemisphere" [sic]. They seem to imagine that the oil shock of 1973 by OPEC can be replicated by the U.S. in control of distribution versus blockages of oil resources, LNG and so on. Their plan didn't survive first contact with, say, Iran, but that doesn't mean it wasn't their plan, at least initially. Now they'll "pivot" and improvise at the world's expense.

Nevermind the Molochs's avatar

<<nibbling on some hapless child...>> I'm squirminglaughing

All of the above 💯

ordo ab Chao aka the emergent strategy aka you decide that where you ended up was exactly what you'd wanted all along, announce that, mop up any foolish enough to scoff then employ a scribe to write it all down as foreordained. Using a Sharpie.

PFC Billy's avatar

Just more Trump humpers flooding the zone with propaganda and spin for the butt ignorant, hard of thinking US audience (who are Trump's last backers, outside of rabid zionists, billionaires & Israeli dual citizens).

TomL's avatar
20hEdited

I've played chess at near master level in tournaments; I see nothing in the US administration's behavior that approaches anywhere near what could be called "strategic", ie long term planning. Even their tactics are poorly executed; their rationales for most of their actions are lacking, the Trump Neanderthals are only looking for personal enrichment for themselves and their cronies.

The Iranian War gambit could be seen as a form of blackmail as we approach greater and greater threats, with more devastating attacks as the world watches on edge. There are countries and their representatives not known for the level of dishonesty and mendacity of the Trump people, Russia and Iran are old classical civilizations that may see their situations as "existentially" threatening at which point all bets are off on their bringing out their biggest weapons to hit lawless regimes in Israel or US-allied interests.

It's almost as if there is a synchronicity operative with the Iran war driven by Netanyahu and Trump. Trump's Epstein's trouble has been getting worse and worse, his political situation more untenable. If this were a parliamentary system he would have been gone a long time ago. His support even with his core group has weakened considerably. As in Nazi Germany there was a core support of around 35% until the bitter end which is similar to Trump's Maga support. What if he is playing for the whole "ball of wax"? He's going to bring civilization to the brink and then he and Netanyahu will start making blackmail demands, "or else".

No1's avatar

Which makes me think: what if the world calls his bluff at that time. “Do your worst mr President”.

Like the saying goes in Russia: “Нас не сломить.”.

Ngungu's avatar

We cannot be broken?

No1's avatar

Yeah, it’s a bit fatalistic saying as I understood it. I hope some of my Slavic readers could chime in to correct (or confirm) this.

What I understood: due to the constant invasions (Mongols, Napolean, Nazis, …) the Russian psyche has a fatalistic component that basically says “you can’t kill us all”. Something like a bamboo: you can bend it, but it’s damn hard to break. It’ll always snap back.

Ngungu's avatar

Nice compliment, I like the bamboo analogy.

Nevermind the Molochs's avatar

Weird how Bobby Fisher, who knew how to push a pawn, called out this underlying pattern decades ago and was ruined because of being so crass as to actually say so. One of the first "cancellations" in hindsight.

Joe Doe's avatar
10hEdited

Check this: https://no01.substack.com/p/connecting-dots-that-dont-connect/comment/235960918

Once you don't dismiss it on the spot as a nutty conspiracy theory, everything makes sense and they don't seem that idiotic. They can afford to be crude as the noticing is still very low.

Mark Janney's avatar

With apologies to Arthur C Clarke, "Any sufficiently random sequence of geopolitical moves is indistinguishable from multi-dimensional chess" :-)

No1's avatar

🥰

Fell Choice's avatar

Oddly enough, the first of these moron traps I watched snap was after the 2016 DNC, when The Bernt began pretending Real Hard that Sanders had a master plan for a comeback, somehow, that fall. I was flabbergasted to watch average people eagerly guzzle the goo. So folks making up reasons to believe Trump’s gonna pull a magic trick comes as no surprise.

There is a certain weight of personality that accompanies the well-funded narcissist and creates its own narrative reality, like a kind of force field. Makes it easy for the narcissist narrator to start believing his own bs, and to see himself as a man above history, directing it, but immune to its gravity. Mr. Trump is now firmly wedged in a giant reality crack, with his knees around his ears and nowhere to push. I think this will destroy the guy before the denouement. Just hoping someone brighter, much, much brighter than Mr. President, is hiding the satchel with the codes.

Luke's avatar

I have very little optimism of where this is all heading. The problem is so much bigger than Trump but he really is the perfect microcosm of it. Greed, arrogance, and stupidity have taken over at the highest levels. I once wanted to believe in it myself. “Trump must know what he’s doing to get this far.” Then you come to terms with the truth in that this system he succeeded in is rotten to the core. Its formation due to years of bribes and corruption where those who have the most money are not necessarily the brightest.

And I fear that while a large percentage of people are still asleep, a significant number have seen too much. If Trump is NOT running some brilliant scheme (he’s NOT) then we are going to see plenty more.

If my hunches are correct there is indeed a brilliant plan in the works. It’s called the disintegration of Western society and it’s being run by the likes of Russia, China, and Iran. Some will be tempted to blame Israel for it. While that is true I am talking about the plan that is actually working.

No1's avatar

I think BRICS couldn't care less of the west unless they interfere. The west will collapse all by itself due to its own hubris. No need to help it along.

And yes, I'm also living in that same west. So it'll be tough. But it'll be tougher if I - we - don't face reality heads-on and prepare for it.

Fell Choice's avatar

I have supported a lot of Mr. Trump’s agenda, too. Still would, if I were still allowed to believe in his agenda. I don’t think he should ever have been president; had his daddy had not been rich, he would have failed as a used car salesman.

I would vote for him again if I had it to do over again.

The country could not have survived another four years with another cognitively incompetent president. I hate seeing Trump in this spot. I think he is flailing, and represents an enormous danger to our country and the world. But he’s doing worlds better than the former prostituting attorney could have done. Such are our choices, here at the end of all things, Sam.

Luke's avatar

You summed me up pretty well too Sam. It’s unnerving to say the least. Trump’s lashing out putting his potential war crimes on digital paper earlier completely blew me away.

Listening to a podcast and it just occurred to me. The Sampson Option has been chosen. At least for the Middle East it has been. If Israel and US can’t have they will force Iran to destroy it (per Trumps tweet).

Ngungu's avatar

1. Samson Option: we have been hearing about for ½ a century. Golda Meir said in 1973 she was rolling out the nukes to counter the approaching Arabs,and was close to launching them .... except they weren't.

Today's situation the zio entity is in makes 1973 look like child's play, yet the Samson Option has still not been exercised. Does the zio entity even have nukes or was it all part of deterrence based on bluff? After all, the Iron Dome/David Sling/whatever turns out to have been a bluff, or more precisely, a fraud.

2. > If Israel and US can’t have they will force Iran to destroy it (per Trumps tweet).

Trump is a brainless empty shell, he does not take independent action, he carries out, albeit in grandiose Trump style, what he is instructed to do. In other words, his tweets are meaningless.

RalfB's avatar
9hEdited

The truth is, Israel has 5---as in five---attack submarines crudely hollowed out so that each houses 1---one---Harpoon cruise missile with a nuclear warhead. Additionally, they have a number of gravity nuclear bombs, also of antiquated provenance, designed to be dropped by F35I aircraft.

Let us analyse these threats separately. The five missiles have a range below 200 km; they cannot reach Iran from the Mediterranean, so that these non-stealth, diesel subs would have to trek around Africa (refueling where?) into the Gulf of Oman at least, in order to deliver their warheads to coastal Iran; Tehran is beyond range from any body of water*.

source: https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/israel-submarine-capabilities/

The obsolete gravity bombs will need to be flown to Iranian interior on aircraft, their range is negligible and they are not suitable for equipping with planing modules. This will require the US to explicitly handle the refueling and massive escort for these planes, which are no longer stealthy to Iranian AD. Also, their taking off from the Negev with the nukes will be observed by Chinese and Russian surveillance hours ahead of time, and all the AD will be mobilized; there will even be hours in which to partly evacuate Tehran, and of course to retaliate with all they've got, no holds barred---desalination plants, sacred cow Hassidic communities, Demona, all key infrastructure will be targeted.

The chance that one of these bombs will be successfully delivered is slim, but not completely negligible. Iran will be hurt, but not knocked out; Israel will become nonviable. That does not mean they will not do it; they are way past rational.

_________________________________________________

*except the Caspian, tee-hee---the "everyone is in on it" aluminum skullcappers will tell you that Russia, and possibly Iran, will collude to get the Israeli subs there.

Ngungu's avatar

Interesting, thanks for that.

The number that is always bandied around is 200-400 nuclear warheads, but from your comment it seems the number is way below 200, and reading between the lines it seems to me they'll be lucky to muster 30-50.

Entropy Wins's avatar

Kushner is verifying the codes for Uncle Bibi right now.

Fell Choice's avatar

Stop it. Like my dreams aren’t evil enough.

John F Psutka's avatar

I think you are totally wrong on almost every count. Trump and his Cabinet of Fools have no more sense than a bag of hammers. They are collectively, the most arrogant , imbecilic fools and incompetents in the world.

No1's avatar

Which is basically what I was saying, but than a bit more politely? 🤣

Or so I thought?

Les's avatar

Weird how people can read this and come to the opposite conclusion to the point you were making. Americans, I'm guessing, for the most part, where literacy (or rather, the lack thereof) is becoming a real problem. Not to mention a sense of humour that requires large signs to warn of an approaching joke...

Fred's avatar

Vaccine damage...

Ngungu's avatar

No, it started decades before that.

Tom's avatar

IMO that person got the link, assumed it would be a rehashing or more praise of the 10D or D10 post making the rounds and jumped to comments ready to criticize what they thought the article said. Somewhat forgivable, at least because I have yet to come across another piece that is critical of this silly grand theory.

No1's avatar

Well, to be honest... I would be making fun of my subscribers and start the article of by praising trump and his strategic mind, to then turn around and completely obliterate any "theory" 🤣

I have been known in the past to do so, even so that long-term subs started to write me messages that they were concerned about my mental health 😂. To which I replied "continue reading"...

Tom's avatar

No argument here.

The Kurgan's avatar

Reading is an essential life skill that is becoming rarer by the day apparently. Then again the surname might be Polish, which would explain a lot.

PFC Billy's avatar

@John F Psutka

Trump and his cabinet are sharp as a sack full of wet mice?

No More Delays's avatar

As a Canadian: Yeah, the whole "Make Canada really like us" didn't work out well. Had they not threatened to annex us, our government would have happily rolled over for any American demand. Unfortunately for the U.S they threatened to erase the core of Canadas identity: Not being the U.S.

Li R's avatar

connect the dots is fun until you run face-first into reality at the gas pump. (or at the mouth of the strait of hormuz, or at a dubai penthouse, or at an Iowa farm, or...)

it's always fun to read you, No1. thank you for keeping up the good work.

harry's avatar

One of my favorites: "Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do" (often phrased "for they do not know what they are doing") is a profound statement spoken by Jesus in Luke 23:34 while being crucified.

Dave Carlson's avatar

Been kinda obsessing lately about Psalm 94 myself.....

Thinker's avatar

Perhaps everyone in the administration should undergo a Emergenetics session to suss out personal learning preferences. I bet only Bessent has a "blue" preference for data. The rest cannot be bothered with real data. I can do the session for free if they want if it can help them to see more truths and bring greater stability and security for the world.

Entropy Wins's avatar

More than just a theory... it's absolutely correct. Trumpy is too stupid to plan this, he's handled by the far right wing zionistas, fundamentalists & American Manifest Destiny gangs. It's so obvious it's a kill China, kill BRICS, destroy Russia planned assault. Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Iran, ...oil, oil,oil & rare earth minerals. This is WWIII. Last man standing wins.

Chevrus's avatar

That’s pretty much it no matter how many self-professed geniuses disagree with it

orango69's avatar

We all should stick to the facts before starting doing assumption or, even worst, predictions. In this moment there is some actors that are greatly benefiting on keeping the war going on. Team USA is having its currency revaluate bcs of safe haven's fleeing capitals, with all the corollary relate to the mountain of debt to be rolled. Team Russia also is gaining, despite being bogged down in Ukraine, bcs is back on the market with its oil at $100+, same here for team Iran. Team China is strategically positioned to cope with almost every outcome, while team Europe definitelly need to convert everything renewable just like Spain did. Then there is some talking point that has been strangely underestimated. China-Russia alliance is tactical not strategical. They don't like each other, never did and never will, for so many reasons that filled several books in the past. The natural pivot for Russia is Europe, once its people will kick out those spineless politician actually ruling. The second and most dangerous point is the meaning of this war for team Israel, which in the best case is existencial and in the worst eschatological. Aside of these points, what is instead overestimated is the leverage of DJT toward Israel and its messianic leadership, which bring me to the only possible outcome. Now i'd like to ask without expecting any answer bcs i'm afraid of that: if hitler would have had the atomic bomb, he'd have use it?

No1's avatar

I truly hope you’re right. Europe & Russian culture is MUCH more close than Russian←→China. If only our current crop of leaders could be somehow removed from office…

Paul Meccano's avatar

Very interesting, often overwhelming theories have recently been floated, your own shares among them.

Personally then, I don’t find it surprisingly that this theory has arrived on the tails of others quite so soon, and also, as you have just eloquently pointed out - full of nonsense.

Is it not enough for them to re-float the petrodollar for ten years, mining at the same time to become a geographically independent power.

Not world domination — self preservation.

Joe Doe's avatar
10hEdited

Nope. https://no01.substack.com/p/connecting-dots-that-dont-connect/comment/235960918

it's better to accept sooner that this is where we are heading.

eric ma's avatar

One may find it difficult to penetrate the fog of war and the various headline lies in the information war, or to effectively verify the passage across the strait,

but, so far the fact on CN local level is the ones refine Iran oil are still producing relatively stable both in YoY and MoM terms--specially comparing to those ones that refine "legit" oils.Yes they're still getting that oil. Iranian crude oil comes in after bathing(trans-shipping) in Malaysia,(so may be, there's still inventory with in the route) lets see if the next data point still showing the same picture.

So much for Chinese iran oil import 4D chess game. I stongly doubt there's any "mega mind" plan here

No1's avatar

I doubt there is a mega (mind/plan) here. I just think it’s “prepare for the worst, it’ll only get better” kind of play.

Plus of course like “Kun Bela” said in another comment: The winds change every four years in the US, but in China/Russia they have an overall plan/destination.

Which makes long term goals much more achievable than to - hypothetical example - charge tariffs on your allies by executive order.