Well, clearly the Chinese, who still haven't forgot about the Opium Wars, the Eight-Nation Alliance, Chiang Kai-shek & The Korean/Vietnam wars.
While the majority of The West's sports addicted man children know more about their favorite sportsball game stats, China was educating their future generations in advanced math & computer sciences...
The decline of western civilization has been apparent since Nixon closed the Gold window in 1971, at this point Idiocracy looks like a Hollywood happy ending.
The U$ has squandered so many chances to MAGA, that it boggles the mind how we've made it this far without The Greater Depression...
Perhaps Red Dawn is still coming, except this time when the paratroopers drop there will be nothing left to conquer, as we've already destroyed ourselves?
I've been an (I) voter since I first cast a ballet, it was even apparent to me as a child that "Intel" Stupidity was running the District Of Criminals & America's CULTure was malevolently out-of-control & the hivemind of drug-addled peasants, whose families should have never been allowed to immigrate into the Great American Experiment, would keep voting for their free $hit "team" until they went back to subsistence farming.
I am a Son Of Liberty, whose families mostly immigrated to New England during the 17th/18th centuries & I'm ashamed to say that Locke was wrong, that Hobbe's Leviathan would have produced better results...
At least we wouldn't have morons fighting over apparatchik political scams in the streets & perhaps capitalism wouldn't have turned into a nepo/crony fraud that has brought us to present day.
""at this point Idiocracy looks like a Hollywood happy ending"" -> I am more starting to think of it as a roadmap/documentary than anything else. Add a touch of Wall-E. And a WHOLE lot of slapstick absurdist humour...
Else you won't survive. No matter how much AuAgPtPd you have, you'll go crazy.
Democracy ("DumbMockCrazy") is overrated. You cannot be a society if the majority is out to make the life of the 50%-1 miserable. And you certainly cannot be a great civilization if the majority is brainwashed.
Democracy can only succeed in a Republic with a high trust *unified* society that enforces the Rule-Of-Law regardless of who the *criminals* are.
America is now a multi-culture nightmare (historically *always* fails) that as a majority now worships hedonism & wants most/all *vice* laws nullified...
That same CULTure votes for other persons' wealth redistributed to themselves, over the last several decades has grown to the point where it will not tolerate *honest* leadership displaying spiritual sanity.
America is The Empire Of The Child.
American government now longer represents "Us", because there is *NO* "Us"; It's every critter for themselves...
Politicians today represent themselves , their friends & people that "donate" large sums of $$$ to keep them in power.
There won't be any justice or rule of law as long as politicians can accept "donations" from people who have an agenda that promotes their interests rather than the country's interests.
It's greed, corruption & fraud all the way from the top to the bottom...
Only a fool negotiates with terrorists, psychopaths, con artists & small children.
Note: Rep. Kevin Hern sold off his entire $500,000 position in United Health $UNH, a week before it cra$hed, his note in the filing was "Sell to close" ~ Hern sits on the House Subcommittee on Health".
And I've yet to see much movement to fast-track producers in a jurisdiction that is slightly leaning west-wards... So: China says like "you can't have our REE", west is like: "ooh noo, bad china". Does nothing. 🤦♂️
Don't forget that the Chinese "Long Game" is only fairly recent history. Because for more than a hundred years (from the first opium war to the death of Mao) China was a basket case and a bad place to live.
It would not surprise me if during the next 100 years, the West will be the bad place to live while China will enter a new, imperial phase.
That's my basic idea too. The west goes down, and China/Russia goes up (BRICS thus - India (india will always be a basket case until that time that they can get rid of their caste-mentality))
Thank you. That was well worth the read and your research tells the story of who has gotten off to a flying start in this financial war with the US firing the first ill thought through first shot.
Rare Earth stocks today are in the zeitgeist of the Golden Age of Grift but they are actually strategic (not just to make fast money). Who saw these coming only 2 years ago?
I remember back in 1989 when I was the chief eng'r. of a small .MIL I went to WESTEC seeking to procure subcontractors & came upon Norinco's (China North Industries Group Corp.) first entry to the expo, where they had secured an entire row of booths for their display.
The reps were still struggling with western language/etiquette (they looked like fish out of water) & had no experience with exotic metallurgy like Inconel, Waspaloy et al., which a decade later would dramatically change when the (D)(R) Uniparty asshats gave away almost *all* of our advance tech to the CCP, so that their donors could get bigger bonuses & golden parachutes utilizing slave labor arbitrage.
Just one of thousands of instances where globalism made The West's civilization collapse inevitable...
As far as export controls & licensing, if I was a CCP planners I'd put some short-term suspensions in the mix, allowing controlled minerals to enter the U$ofA for a short time, just to throw off capital investment momentum, that is until the next geopolitical blunder the (D)(R) apparatchiks step in, which is their MO.
It should be apparent now to BRICS+ that The West is wholly agreement/treaty incapable, with our "leaders" willing to sellout their own country for a quick buck and/or a political talking point...
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" ~ Sun Tzu
Intense essay, well done No1, so complete even a caveman could grok it.
So, while the (D)(R) Uniparty was playing chess Russia, China & India+ have been playing 5D Go!
I knew this day would come when Bush1/Clintoon rammed NAFTA/GATT down America's throat...
"You hear that giant sucking sound?" ⏳
I started telling folks that Ross Perot was America's last, best hope...
If anyone's waiting for "minimum public comprehension", good luck with that, cause the combined IQ of gen pop is probably around 80, maybe 77-78 now with all the dirt floor born 3rd worlders we've been invaded with 😐
Sounds to me like the clever Chinese have silently taken over the world's economies. This fact will be ignored by our own clueless industrialists to the detriment of all, except China.
Fully agree, money alone is worthless. All the talk from bean counters about MMT and other such nonsense shows the lack of critical thought that comes from that dicipline. Real world materials will just appear out of thin air if you have enough cash in your Hand.
Unfortunately even if you're standing there with a truck load of gold the raw materials won't leap from the ground. All this and the future stock of diesel isn't looking all that secure either, after 2032 or so, another critical input.
Absolutely fabulous essay. Incredible data on a very wide range of critical elements, how they are used and how USA (and the rest of the West) have completely given the future away to China. Unbelievable stupidity. Every President since Clinton (NAFTA will be great for USA) should be held accountable. I knew that the situation was bad.... but this is amazing how bad. Thank you No.1. Great effort. Here's a key metric. China graduates about 1,000 engineers per million of population. USA graduates about 400 engineers per million population. The dumbing down of our civilisation has been unbelievable. STEM subjects.... Naaahh, too hard. China Rising. Strategic planning decades ahead. The West .. too dumb to see. Cheers. & thank you. Probably the best article on Systemic Decline of the West I've read.
But sadly I think they stopped in 2023 (or maybe 2024). I miss those calendars - they were excellent and had little tidbits for the 12 highlighted "monthly elements" selected for any given year.
No1 - Thank you for sharing. I would rather read your notes than the full article. I know you don't have much time with the new job. Your articles are the only exception I make to my rule.
Thanks for the excellent and thorough report--a lot of effort must have gone into this.
When mentioning that "reshoring increases production costs by 30-50% minimum", it might also behoove us to consider that as time marches on, the value of the USD will continue to slip as our debt bomb finally goes off for real. With borrowing and printing our way forward soon no longer an option, the financial hit will be that much greater.
It is worth asking where Chinese production for all this will go if it is not sold West. We certainly must be a pretty big chunk of the market, and it's hard to see the rest of the world easily picking up the slack when we are no longer allowed to buy it. These materials aren't used in the same quantities in less developed countries.
I've known for a long time that all that offshoring would someday come back to haunt us, but laying it all out here like this in one place really brings home just how shockingly dire things have become.
Where will they sell: that is something I saw recently discussed. China wants to create a consumer economy as well. Which is really smart as they see the ongoing collapse of the US, and west more in general. So in a few decades they have no place to dump their stuff anymore. Which means they will need to sell it inwards. Meaning they will also come for the high-end stuff that up till now was something that only the west built.
Which mean that we as the west won't be able to sell it to them anymore either. Hence: even faster collapse.
Couple more metals to add to the list (which we use in our business):
1) Cesium, used in photocathodes, the oil & gas industry, medical isotopes, etc. I believe the only mine in the Americas is located in Canada.
2) The heaviest rare-earth, lutetium, is used in medical imaging applications. Without it, you can forget about radiology.
However, in addition to supply constraints, there is also the issue about "ideology". I remember very well during the Biden era when the FEDs wanted to bring domestic semi fabs to the USA. But guess what, the requirements were so loaded with DEI crap that very few if any businesses (ours included) wanted to be part of it.
Same is happening now, only from a financial points of view. Sure, the FEDs want to have a domestic supply chain of XYZ, but only pay a pittance for it. Therefore, the discussion in the boardrooms go like this: "The FEDs want us to supply XYZ, but the costs to us to set it up will be $100m+, with NO guarantee that the next guy in the White House will follow true."
Conclusion: You pay us 10x upfront, or go pound sand.
Thanks Ed. I added Cs (Cesium). That was an oversight and thanks for catching that.
Lutetium I already mentioned in the April ban, but I didn't really dug into it because it was like kinda "blanket-covered". (I wasn't really looking to write a periodic table with all elements and the share that China processes and/or controls 🤣 - though it definitely looks like that!).
The article I wrote was more about stating the hard facts: who produces what, and who refines what. This in anticipation of what China might want to cut off next.
And yes, the west won't invest in anything without major .gov backing. Which won't come because No1 understands what those elements do, and why those "cheap" elements need 100x the money to be invested. For what? For "national security"... Try explaining THAT to your voters...
"For "national security"... Try explaining THAT to your voters..."
You mean the free $hit army that has had their addictions enabled into crippling co-dependence?
There's a reason that democracy always implodes into socialism, it's the old 2 wolves & a lamb voting for dinner, until cannibalism takes over...
America was founded by 1 neighbor coming to another's defense against a tyrannical empire to establish the self-governing utopia espoused by Age Of Reason/Enlightenment:
"The state of nature has a law of nature to govern it, which obliges every one: and reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind, who will but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possession" ~ John Locke, Second Treatise 1690
Excellent analysis. Thank you. If you don’t mind my urging, you need to get this published beyond substack (no offense to substack) if you haven’t already done so. Im thinking WSJ, Foreign Affairs Mag, and other reputable publications.
Feel free to submit it with proper attribution 😁. My stack is free and will be always free. (Which is annoying as I won't appear in any of the "top" lists of substack as those are limited to paying stacks)
Not to get off on a "tangent" - but I have the same philosophy at my place - I don't want to get "paid" for what I publish - with all the associated protections per the Terms & Conditions". Substack ought realize some of the best content is provided for "free" - and the authors of said stacks - presuming they are not "ai" - which I ain't - must have other incentives in sharing. I like to share.
So "sorry" for this slightly tangent response - but P&S just suggested this site to me and it has sent me down a path - cause I could tell - this article is important.
Thanks Ken. My reason for publishing for free is that the topics I write about are too important, too life changing if you don't do, that it is a waste to hide them behind a paywall…
Yes, as others have inferred, this is just brilliant, complex research, delivered in an understandable, easy to digest format. Rare skills & ability.
If you have a 'day job' No 1, I hope you're receiving the remuneration/rewards you deserve: top end companies/appropriate govt departments should be falling over themselves to secure your critical analysis & writing skills.
I have a day job, and it is good paid (otherwise I wouldn't bother). It also so happens I love my job, which is increasingly rare to have both. And no, it's not at top companies. 😆 I once applied there and they rejected me. Didn't bother afterwards because the fricking process involved like 20 interviews or so. (Slight exaggeration, but not by much)
I still have 5 articles in the pipeline that I should publish once upon a time, but this one, I wanted to have it out there before the trade war restarted.
Maybe you could consider doing one on Empires, as in 'the rise & fall of..'
Taking the long view, the long sweep of history, Empires come & go, it would seem, in a fairly natural progression (though to the outgoing one, it may not seem so..)
In recent times, the British did a pretty fair job, handing over the car keys to America without a lot of snarling & bitching & angst. A relatively civilised transition (of course, some say they never really let go..)
It seems obvious - to me at least - that America's fairly short time in the sun in terms of Empire, is done & dusted. They achieved a lot, brought a great deal of positives to the World, but lost it: Jekyll Island, 1963, 1971, 2001? And many unnecessary wars, large & small.
It's China's turn, this century seems to rightfully belong to them. They've worked for it, sometimes ethically, sometimes not. But certainly methodically, cleverly, playing the long game.
But there's every indication that the US of A will not go quietly into the night and if things goes badly, it will be horrible, a disaster for the entire World
Hey! No 1 - you've got the talent for research & writing - maybe there's a book lurking there! And as someone else commented, this current topic deserves a wider audience too. In what form I dunno - maybe someone in publishing /marketing will have ideas...
Another very impressive article & a sober reflection on the decline of the west. It pretty much does cover what I (somewhat vaguely) had in mind & does so not just through the lens of energy, but also culture, attitudes & politics.
I think this nailed it:
'The West had this technology. The West abandoned it. Now China owns it'.
I just hope & pray that in the transition, hubris doesn't kill us all & send civ back to the Dark Ages..
Yeah, I was talking about the thorium reactor. But in the west we don't have the long-term vision anymore. That's the drawback of capitalism. Everything needs to earn money NOW. In China they order from the state: you 20 scientist, work on this problem for 20 years. Fix it. (or off with your heads)
But this ain't the only thing. Like the article we're commenting on: China refined this production technology for the better part of 1, maybe 2 decades now. What do you think in the west we can do?? Maybe we should start spying on THEM?
Who knew you had to think beyond quarterly performance?
Well, clearly the Chinese, who still haven't forgot about the Opium Wars, the Eight-Nation Alliance, Chiang Kai-shek & The Korean/Vietnam wars.
While the majority of The West's sports addicted man children know more about their favorite sportsball game stats, China was educating their future generations in advanced math & computer sciences...
The decline of western civilization has been apparent since Nixon closed the Gold window in 1971, at this point Idiocracy looks like a Hollywood happy ending.
The U$ has squandered so many chances to MAGA, that it boggles the mind how we've made it this far without The Greater Depression...
Perhaps Red Dawn is still coming, except this time when the paratroopers drop there will be nothing left to conquer, as we've already destroyed ourselves?
I've been an (I) voter since I first cast a ballet, it was even apparent to me as a child that "Intel" Stupidity was running the District Of Criminals & America's CULTure was malevolently out-of-control & the hivemind of drug-addled peasants, whose families should have never been allowed to immigrate into the Great American Experiment, would keep voting for their free $hit "team" until they went back to subsistence farming.
I am a Son Of Liberty, whose families mostly immigrated to New England during the 17th/18th centuries & I'm ashamed to say that Locke was wrong, that Hobbe's Leviathan would have produced better results...
At least we wouldn't have morons fighting over apparatchik political scams in the streets & perhaps capitalism wouldn't have turned into a nepo/crony fraud that has brought us to present day.
They should have crowned Washington after all...
FWFS
""at this point Idiocracy looks like a Hollywood happy ending"" -> I am more starting to think of it as a roadmap/documentary than anything else. Add a touch of Wall-E. And a WHOLE lot of slapstick absurdist humour...
Else you won't survive. No matter how much AuAgPtPd you have, you'll go crazy.
Democracy ("DumbMockCrazy") is overrated. You cannot be a society if the majority is out to make the life of the 50%-1 miserable. And you certainly cannot be a great civilization if the majority is brainwashed.
Democracy can only succeed in a Republic with a high trust *unified* society that enforces the Rule-Of-Law regardless of who the *criminals* are.
America is now a multi-culture nightmare (historically *always* fails) that as a majority now worships hedonism & wants most/all *vice* laws nullified...
That same CULTure votes for other persons' wealth redistributed to themselves, over the last several decades has grown to the point where it will not tolerate *honest* leadership displaying spiritual sanity.
America is The Empire Of The Child.
American government now longer represents "Us", because there is *NO* "Us"; It's every critter for themselves...
Politicians today represent themselves , their friends & people that "donate" large sums of $$$ to keep them in power.
There won't be any justice or rule of law as long as politicians can accept "donations" from people who have an agenda that promotes their interests rather than the country's interests.
It's greed, corruption & fraud all the way from the top to the bottom...
Only a fool negotiates with terrorists, psychopaths, con artists & small children.
Note: Rep. Kevin Hern sold off his entire $500,000 position in United Health $UNH, a week before it cra$hed, his note in the filing was "Sell to close" ~ Hern sits on the House Subcommittee on Health".
yeah, your last comment, I wanted to add as a note this morning, but I was like... Water under the bridge. Everyone's doing that there...
China’s long game is brilliant and frightening. We lost so much of our manufacturing to them. That part I understand well.
But this is staggering, and the very thing that can bring every country to bend a knee to China.
We were all blinded by low prices. China holds all the cards and we haven’t begun to feel the financial pain they can inflict on our economies.
Supply- chain hostage
Yikes 😬
And I've yet to see much movement to fast-track producers in a jurisdiction that is slightly leaning west-wards... So: China says like "you can't have our REE", west is like: "ooh noo, bad china". Does nothing. 🤦♂️
I feel like the talking heads in the West are playing checkers (making noise to sound relevant) while the Chinese are playing chess (or go).
Don't forget that the Chinese "Long Game" is only fairly recent history. Because for more than a hundred years (from the first opium war to the death of Mao) China was a basket case and a bad place to live.
It would not surprise me if during the next 100 years, the West will be the bad place to live while China will enter a new, imperial phase.
That's my basic idea too. The west goes down, and China/Russia goes up (BRICS thus - India (india will always be a basket case until that time that they can get rid of their caste-mentality))
Thank you. That was well worth the read and your research tells the story of who has gotten off to a flying start in this financial war with the US firing the first ill thought through first shot.
Rare Earth stocks today are in the zeitgeist of the Golden Age of Grift but they are actually strategic (not just to make fast money). Who saw these coming only 2 years ago?
Sobering article @no01, as usual.
I remember back in 1989 when I was the chief eng'r. of a small .MIL I went to WESTEC seeking to procure subcontractors & came upon Norinco's (China North Industries Group Corp.) first entry to the expo, where they had secured an entire row of booths for their display.
The reps were still struggling with western language/etiquette (they looked like fish out of water) & had no experience with exotic metallurgy like Inconel, Waspaloy et al., which a decade later would dramatically change when the (D)(R) Uniparty asshats gave away almost *all* of our advance tech to the CCP, so that their donors could get bigger bonuses & golden parachutes utilizing slave labor arbitrage.
Just one of thousands of instances where globalism made The West's civilization collapse inevitable...
As far as export controls & licensing, if I was a CCP planners I'd put some short-term suspensions in the mix, allowing controlled minerals to enter the U$ofA for a short time, just to throw off capital investment momentum, that is until the next geopolitical blunder the (D)(R) apparatchiks step in, which is their MO.
It should be apparent now to BRICS+ that The West is wholly agreement/treaty incapable, with our "leaders" willing to sellout their own country for a quick buck and/or a political talking point...
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" ~ Sun Tzu
Intense essay, well done No1, so complete even a caveman could grok it.
So, while the (D)(R) Uniparty was playing chess Russia, China & India+ have been playing 5D Go!
I knew this day would come when Bush1/Clintoon rammed NAFTA/GATT down America's throat...
"You hear that giant sucking sound?" ⏳
I started telling folks that Ross Perot was America's last, best hope...
If anyone's waiting for "minimum public comprehension", good luck with that, cause the combined IQ of gen pop is probably around 80, maybe 77-78 now with all the dirt floor born 3rd worlders we've been invaded with 😐
Elections. Have. Consequences.
Thanks for this. I forwarded it to my engineer sons.
Sounds to me like the clever Chinese have silently taken over the world's economies. This fact will be ignored by our own clueless industrialists to the detriment of all, except China.
All the money in the world cannot produce critical materials and precious metals out of thin air.
It just goes to show the idiocy and shortcomings of Western leaders.
Keep an eye on this space! I'm working on a "solution" for metals-from-thin-air. (hint: I'm turning the dial to twelve on the absurdist scale!)
More like narcissism and greed.
Fully agree, money alone is worthless. All the talk from bean counters about MMT and other such nonsense shows the lack of critical thought that comes from that dicipline. Real world materials will just appear out of thin air if you have enough cash in your Hand.
Unfortunately even if you're standing there with a truck load of gold the raw materials won't leap from the ground. All this and the future stock of diesel isn't looking all that secure either, after 2032 or so, another critical input.
Five theories walk into a house...
https://no01.substack.com/p/five-theories-walk-into-a-house
Excellent explanation of how economic thinking works or doesn't!
Absolutely fabulous essay. Incredible data on a very wide range of critical elements, how they are used and how USA (and the rest of the West) have completely given the future away to China. Unbelievable stupidity. Every President since Clinton (NAFTA will be great for USA) should be held accountable. I knew that the situation was bad.... but this is amazing how bad. Thank you No.1. Great effort. Here's a key metric. China graduates about 1,000 engineers per million of population. USA graduates about 400 engineers per million population. The dumbing down of our civilisation has been unbelievable. STEM subjects.... Naaahh, too hard. China Rising. Strategic planning decades ahead. The West .. too dumb to see. Cheers. & thank you. Probably the best article on Systemic Decline of the West I've read.
That was truly enjoyable reading…
Fine Article. Reminds of the Calendars I used to get every year......https://www.amazon.com/Elements-2023-Calendar-English-Spanish/dp/0762479620
But sadly I think they stopped in 2023 (or maybe 2024). I miss those calendars - they were excellent and had little tidbits for the 12 highlighted "monthly elements" selected for any given year.
Regards,
BK
Excellent essay!!
No1 - Thank you for sharing. I would rather read your notes than the full article. I know you don't have much time with the new job. Your articles are the only exception I make to my rule.
Thanks for the excellent and thorough report--a lot of effort must have gone into this.
When mentioning that "reshoring increases production costs by 30-50% minimum", it might also behoove us to consider that as time marches on, the value of the USD will continue to slip as our debt bomb finally goes off for real. With borrowing and printing our way forward soon no longer an option, the financial hit will be that much greater.
It is worth asking where Chinese production for all this will go if it is not sold West. We certainly must be a pretty big chunk of the market, and it's hard to see the rest of the world easily picking up the slack when we are no longer allowed to buy it. These materials aren't used in the same quantities in less developed countries.
I've known for a long time that all that offshoring would someday come back to haunt us, but laying it all out here like this in one place really brings home just how shockingly dire things have become.
Where will they sell: that is something I saw recently discussed. China wants to create a consumer economy as well. Which is really smart as they see the ongoing collapse of the US, and west more in general. So in a few decades they have no place to dump their stuff anymore. Which means they will need to sell it inwards. Meaning they will also come for the high-end stuff that up till now was something that only the west built.
Which mean that we as the west won't be able to sell it to them anymore either. Hence: even faster collapse.
Interesting times!!
I can also imagine a future where South Korea and Japan will be forced to become "puppet states" of China.
It's only natural. They're in the same sphere of influence...
Couple more metals to add to the list (which we use in our business):
1) Cesium, used in photocathodes, the oil & gas industry, medical isotopes, etc. I believe the only mine in the Americas is located in Canada.
2) The heaviest rare-earth, lutetium, is used in medical imaging applications. Without it, you can forget about radiology.
However, in addition to supply constraints, there is also the issue about "ideology". I remember very well during the Biden era when the FEDs wanted to bring domestic semi fabs to the USA. But guess what, the requirements were so loaded with DEI crap that very few if any businesses (ours included) wanted to be part of it.
Same is happening now, only from a financial points of view. Sure, the FEDs want to have a domestic supply chain of XYZ, but only pay a pittance for it. Therefore, the discussion in the boardrooms go like this: "The FEDs want us to supply XYZ, but the costs to us to set it up will be $100m+, with NO guarantee that the next guy in the White House will follow true."
Conclusion: You pay us 10x upfront, or go pound sand.
Thanks Ed. I added Cs (Cesium). That was an oversight and thanks for catching that.
Lutetium I already mentioned in the April ban, but I didn't really dug into it because it was like kinda "blanket-covered". (I wasn't really looking to write a periodic table with all elements and the share that China processes and/or controls 🤣 - though it definitely looks like that!).
The article I wrote was more about stating the hard facts: who produces what, and who refines what. This in anticipation of what China might want to cut off next.
And yes, the west won't invest in anything without major .gov backing. Which won't come because No1 understands what those elements do, and why those "cheap" elements need 100x the money to be invested. For what? For "national security"... Try explaining THAT to your voters...
"For "national security"... Try explaining THAT to your voters..."
You mean the free $hit army that has had their addictions enabled into crippling co-dependence?
There's a reason that democracy always implodes into socialism, it's the old 2 wolves & a lamb voting for dinner, until cannibalism takes over...
America was founded by 1 neighbor coming to another's defense against a tyrannical empire to establish the self-governing utopia espoused by Age Of Reason/Enlightenment:
"The state of nature has a law of nature to govern it, which obliges every one: and reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind, who will but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possession" ~ John Locke, Second Treatise 1690
https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/163locke.html
""the free $hit army"" -> yes
Excellent analysis. Thank you. If you don’t mind my urging, you need to get this published beyond substack (no offense to substack) if you haven’t already done so. Im thinking WSJ, Foreign Affairs Mag, and other reputable publications.
This issue is critical.
Feel free to submit it with proper attribution 😁. My stack is free and will be always free. (Which is annoying as I won't appear in any of the "top" lists of substack as those are limited to paying stacks)
Not to get off on a "tangent" - but I have the same philosophy at my place - I don't want to get "paid" for what I publish - with all the associated protections per the Terms & Conditions". Substack ought realize some of the best content is provided for "free" - and the authors of said stacks - presuming they are not "ai" - which I ain't - must have other incentives in sharing. I like to share.
So "sorry" for this slightly tangent response - but P&S just suggested this site to me and it has sent me down a path - cause I could tell - this article is important.
Warm Regards,
Buffalo_Ken
Thanks Ken. My reason for publishing for free is that the topics I write about are too important, too life changing if you don't do, that it is a waste to hide them behind a paywall…
I’ll see what I can do. Keep up the excellent work!
Yes, as others have inferred, this is just brilliant, complex research, delivered in an understandable, easy to digest format. Rare skills & ability.
If you have a 'day job' No 1, I hope you're receiving the remuneration/rewards you deserve: top end companies/appropriate govt departments should be falling over themselves to secure your critical analysis & writing skills.
PS cancel that. Don't go.
I have a day job, and it is good paid (otherwise I wouldn't bother). It also so happens I love my job, which is increasingly rare to have both. And no, it's not at top companies. 😆 I once applied there and they rejected me. Didn't bother afterwards because the fricking process involved like 20 interviews or so. (Slight exaggeration, but not by much)
I still have 5 articles in the pipeline that I should publish once upon a time, but this one, I wanted to have it out there before the trade war restarted.
Maybe you could consider doing one on Empires, as in 'the rise & fall of..'
Taking the long view, the long sweep of history, Empires come & go, it would seem, in a fairly natural progression (though to the outgoing one, it may not seem so..)
In recent times, the British did a pretty fair job, handing over the car keys to America without a lot of snarling & bitching & angst. A relatively civilised transition (of course, some say they never really let go..)
It seems obvious - to me at least - that America's fairly short time in the sun in terms of Empire, is done & dusted. They achieved a lot, brought a great deal of positives to the World, but lost it: Jekyll Island, 1963, 1971, 2001? And many unnecessary wars, large & small.
It's China's turn, this century seems to rightfully belong to them. They've worked for it, sometimes ethically, sometimes not. But certainly methodically, cleverly, playing the long game.
But there's every indication that the US of A will not go quietly into the night and if things goes badly, it will be horrible, a disaster for the entire World
Hey! No 1 - you've got the talent for research & writing - maybe there's a book lurking there! And as someone else commented, this current topic deserves a wider audience too. In what form I dunno - maybe someone in publishing /marketing will have ideas...
A while ago I wrote this: https://no01.substack.com/p/energy-as-the-river-of-civilization
It’s not really what you’re thinking of, but more looking at the rise & fall through the lens of energy abundance (or deprivation).
Another very impressive article & a sober reflection on the decline of the west. It pretty much does cover what I (somewhat vaguely) had in mind & does so not just through the lens of energy, but also culture, attitudes & politics.
I think this nailed it:
'The West had this technology. The West abandoned it. Now China owns it'.
I just hope & pray that in the transition, hubris doesn't kill us all & send civ back to the Dark Ages..
Yeah, I was talking about the thorium reactor. But in the west we don't have the long-term vision anymore. That's the drawback of capitalism. Everything needs to earn money NOW. In China they order from the state: you 20 scientist, work on this problem for 20 years. Fix it. (or off with your heads)
But this ain't the only thing. Like the article we're commenting on: China refined this production technology for the better part of 1, maybe 2 decades now. What do you think in the west we can do?? Maybe we should start spying on THEM?
I've shared links of this article at sott.net. I like to share good info that is important and ought be on more folks "radar" - so to speak.
Regards,
BK