"The Treasury market is another side of this problem. The U.S. government needs to issue over $2 trillion in net new debt for fiscal 2026."
There's also $9 trillion (low interest bonds) that have to be rolled over in 2026, at current rates, which will jack up the U$T interest payments...
Same $hit, different decade: I first became aware of the RE churn & burn game back in 2003, when we compiled a *huge* down payment went out looking at RE in Queen NY ~ What we found was immigrants right off the boat (no engrish, solly) outbidding *normal* RE buyers with NINJA LIAR loans via their RE "agents"....
Once I surveiled the landscape I knew the collateralized $hy$tem was going to burst, that Ag was artificially suppressed, so we put *all* savings into physical.
The 2007-2008 cra$h should have resulted in a system wide correction, but the bank$ter$ & their puppets engineered then multi-trillion bailout$, defrauding We The Sheeple via TARP (Dumya) & TALP (Obummer)...
So, then our nest egg became our retirement savings/security.
Now, 21 years later it looks like the $y$tem is finally getting the correction required to restore *normal* economics, after 50+ years of fraudulent bank$ter disaster capitalism...
This bubble is going to now be a nuclear bomb when it *pops*, instead of the massive correction that should have happened 15+ years ago.
Elections. Have. Consequences.
Keep voting for the (D)(R) Uniparty scam, if you want to see We The Sheeple living under bridges, otherwise...
""This bubble is going to now be a nuclear bomb when it *pops*, instead of the massive correction that should have happened 15+ years ago."" HEAR HEAR!
I started more than a decade later than you, but yes, I see the same things.
"I started more than a decade later than you, but yes, I see the same things."
A decade before my eP00f@NY the Uniparty shipped American manufacturing to Mexico & China with NAFTA(Bush0)/WTO(Clintoon)...
A lot of We The Sheeple don't understand it wasn't just mfg. we shipped out, it was tech that brought these slave labour "developing" countries out of the dark ages (see Loral/Clinton missle guidance scandal et al.)...
Prior to starting our 1996 eBiz legal newswire, I had been an aerospace eng'r. during the cold war starting in 1979, so I saw it in real time ~ Metallurgy in China advanced 50 years in a decade (Inconel, Waspalloy et al.), which enabled China's .mil to advance in critical areas.
Anecdotal: There are millions upon millions of Social Security + Disabilities cases that are backlogged that when/if they are approved for payment will add more financial stress to .gov's liability sheet (not a bug, a feature?)...
They're trying to add this phenom to Orange Man Bad, but it was well under way per this OIG report from AUG 2024:
Interesting about the Soc Sec and disabilities payments backlog. Could increasing the morbidity load have been one of the intended consequences of the jab? Remember that the convid nonsense was declared just as the global banking system needed bailing out, even though retrospective wastewater studies showed the virus circulating globally for at least a year prior to the declaration of the “crisis”. So, a two-fer? Get rid of granny to stop the expense of supporting her while preventing her from passing on cultural knowledge, and, at the same time, make younger generations too sick and debilitated to live without support from “the system”? Then, the system can either get rid of them by pulling the rug out from under, or use them to push the system over the edge and bankrupt everybody by approving more “support”.
Can you help me wrap my head around something? If the Fed lowers rates, especially if more than expected, then that should cause bond prices to go up, right? (And bond yields to go down.) Except, isn't the thinking that that would also cause inflation, which would have the effect of *lowering* bond prices (and thus increasing yields)? These things seem, to me, to run in opposite directions, leaving me quite confused.
Both effects exist and they do pull in opposite directions.
The **immediate mechanical effect** is straightforward: when the Fed cuts rates, existing bonds paying higher yields become more valuable, so their prices rise (and yields fall accordingly). This happens basically instantly.
The **inflation expectation effect** works differently. If markets interpret the rate cut as potentially inflationary - maybe the Fed is being too accommodative, or cutting rates will overstimulate the economy - then investors demand higher yields to compensate for that expected inflation. That pushes bond prices down and yields up.
So which wins? It depends on the context and timeline.
If the Fed cuts rates during a clear slowdown or recession, markets usually interpret it as appropriate policy response. The mechanical effect dominates - bond prices rise, yields fall. No inflation worries.
But if the Fed cuts when the economy seems fine, or cuts more aggressively than the situation warrants, markets might worry about future inflation. Then you get the weird situation where short-term rates fall but longer-term bond yields actually rise because of that inflation premium. The yield curve steepens.
You can even see both effects in sequence: immediate bond rally from the rate cut itself, then a gradual selloff over weeks/months if inflation expectations build.
The key is that these aren't really contradictory - they're just operating on different mechanisms (current price arbitrage vs future inflation expectations) and different timeframes.
If you can stomach 60% drawdown and staying the course then maybe. You need to be really really disciplined.
Better would be to invest in PSLV or so if you want exposure to silver on the stock exchanges. If you can accept a "bit" of volatility, you can also look at senior miners. But juniors? That's the wild-west-squared...
Chinese gold ETF inflows just hit RMB64bn in H1 2025. Silver's trading at a huge premium in Shanghai versus the west.
Real estate? Foreign funds are dumping properties at 50% losses. Over 15,000 millionaires left China in 2024. Property investment down 16% year-over-year.
Most transactions are fake however or manipulated to prevent the "market price" from collapsing. The government's desperately trying to keep up appearances. So don't trust import/export numbers or official reserves.
What you *can* track:
- Shanghai-London basis spreads (persistent premiums show real physical demand)
- Chinese gold/silver ETF holdings (actual published data, harder to fake)
- SHFE inventory levels (silver at 10-year lows)
- Shanghai Gold Exchange physical withdrawals
The wealthy with free capital are converting. The middle class is stuck holding the bag with negative equity mortgages.
"The Treasury market is another side of this problem. The U.S. government needs to issue over $2 trillion in net new debt for fiscal 2026."
There's also $9 trillion (low interest bonds) that have to be rolled over in 2026, at current rates, which will jack up the U$T interest payments...
Same $hit, different decade: I first became aware of the RE churn & burn game back in 2003, when we compiled a *huge* down payment went out looking at RE in Queen NY ~ What we found was immigrants right off the boat (no engrish, solly) outbidding *normal* RE buyers with NINJA LIAR loans via their RE "agents"....
Once I surveiled the landscape I knew the collateralized $hy$tem was going to burst, that Ag was artificially suppressed, so we put *all* savings into physical.
The 2007-2008 cra$h should have resulted in a system wide correction, but the bank$ter$ & their puppets engineered then multi-trillion bailout$, defrauding We The Sheeple via TARP (Dumya) & TALP (Obummer)...
So, then our nest egg became our retirement savings/security.
Now, 21 years later it looks like the $y$tem is finally getting the correction required to restore *normal* economics, after 50+ years of fraudulent bank$ter disaster capitalism...
This bubble is going to now be a nuclear bomb when it *pops*, instead of the massive correction that should have happened 15+ years ago.
Elections. Have. Consequences.
Keep voting for the (D)(R) Uniparty scam, if you want to see We The Sheeple living under bridges, otherwise...
*AMERICA FIRST*
""This bubble is going to now be a nuclear bomb when it *pops*, instead of the massive correction that should have happened 15+ years ago."" HEAR HEAR!
I started more than a decade later than you, but yes, I see the same things.
"I started more than a decade later than you, but yes, I see the same things."
A decade before my eP00f@NY the Uniparty shipped American manufacturing to Mexico & China with NAFTA(Bush0)/WTO(Clintoon)...
A lot of We The Sheeple don't understand it wasn't just mfg. we shipped out, it was tech that brought these slave labour "developing" countries out of the dark ages (see Loral/Clinton missle guidance scandal et al.)...
Prior to starting our 1996 eBiz legal newswire, I had been an aerospace eng'r. during the cold war starting in 1979, so I saw it in real time ~ Metallurgy in China advanced 50 years in a decade (Inconel, Waspalloy et al.), which enabled China's .mil to advance in critical areas.
Anecdotal: There are millions upon millions of Social Security + Disabilities cases that are backlogged that when/if they are approved for payment will add more financial stress to .gov's liability sheet (not a bug, a feature?)...
They're trying to add this phenom to Orange Man Bad, but it was well under way per this OIG report from AUG 2024:
https://oig.ssa.gov/news-releases/2024-08-08-record-breaking-backlog-increases-improper-payments-by-over-1b/
Interesting time may you live in!
Interesting about the Soc Sec and disabilities payments backlog. Could increasing the morbidity load have been one of the intended consequences of the jab? Remember that the convid nonsense was declared just as the global banking system needed bailing out, even though retrospective wastewater studies showed the virus circulating globally for at least a year prior to the declaration of the “crisis”. So, a two-fer? Get rid of granny to stop the expense of supporting her while preventing her from passing on cultural knowledge, and, at the same time, make younger generations too sick and debilitated to live without support from “the system”? Then, the system can either get rid of them by pulling the rug out from under, or use them to push the system over the edge and bankrupt everybody by approving more “support”.
Diabolically clever.
"Ample" makes it sound like the comforting, heaving breasts of a friendly barmaid, pressed against your cheek.
And you never noticed she got the wallet
There's nothing in there anyway, it's all in junior miners anyway 😋
Can you help me wrap my head around something? If the Fed lowers rates, especially if more than expected, then that should cause bond prices to go up, right? (And bond yields to go down.) Except, isn't the thinking that that would also cause inflation, which would have the effect of *lowering* bond prices (and thus increasing yields)? These things seem, to me, to run in opposite directions, leaving me quite confused.
Both effects exist and they do pull in opposite directions.
The **immediate mechanical effect** is straightforward: when the Fed cuts rates, existing bonds paying higher yields become more valuable, so their prices rise (and yields fall accordingly). This happens basically instantly.
The **inflation expectation effect** works differently. If markets interpret the rate cut as potentially inflationary - maybe the Fed is being too accommodative, or cutting rates will overstimulate the economy - then investors demand higher yields to compensate for that expected inflation. That pushes bond prices down and yields up.
So which wins? It depends on the context and timeline.
If the Fed cuts rates during a clear slowdown or recession, markets usually interpret it as appropriate policy response. The mechanical effect dominates - bond prices rise, yields fall. No inflation worries.
But if the Fed cuts when the economy seems fine, or cuts more aggressively than the situation warrants, markets might worry about future inflation. Then you get the weird situation where short-term rates fall but longer-term bond yields actually rise because of that inflation premium. The yield curve steepens.
You can even see both effects in sequence: immediate bond rally from the rate cut itself, then a gradual selloff over weeks/months if inflation expectations build.
The key is that these aren't really contradictory - they're just operating on different mechanisms (current price arbitrage vs future inflation expectations) and different timeframes.
Cant wait to become a Creditor of State Street for my retirement account
So well articulated…thank you!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVZ9gJbYQPI&t=455s
I know about the "Greek guy" play. So for anyone seeing this: It's a fake movie.
Nevermind...it's an AI deepfake video.
WTAF!
Would you recommend Junior miners?
If you have to ask: nope.
If you can stomach 60% drawdown and staying the course then maybe. You need to be really really disciplined.
Better would be to invest in PSLV or so if you want exposure to silver on the stock exchanges. If you can accept a "bit" of volatility, you can also look at senior miners. But juniors? That's the wild-west-squared...
Really well written article !
I'll excerpt and link to this in the post I'm stacking tabs for.
Timing... who knows?
;-/
GFC 2.0
If "debasement trade" was the word of 2025, "fiscal dominance theory" is gonna be the word of 2026.
Do you suppose Chinese real estate investors start cutting their losses and convert into physical metals? How can I see if this theory holds water?
The rich ones already are.
Chinese gold ETF inflows just hit RMB64bn in H1 2025. Silver's trading at a huge premium in Shanghai versus the west.
Real estate? Foreign funds are dumping properties at 50% losses. Over 15,000 millionaires left China in 2024. Property investment down 16% year-over-year.
Most transactions are fake however or manipulated to prevent the "market price" from collapsing. The government's desperately trying to keep up appearances. So don't trust import/export numbers or official reserves.
What you *can* track:
- Shanghai-London basis spreads (persistent premiums show real physical demand)
- Chinese gold/silver ETF holdings (actual published data, harder to fake)
- SHFE inventory levels (silver at 10-year lows)
- Shanghai Gold Exchange physical withdrawals
The wealthy with free capital are converting. The middle class is stuck holding the bag with negative equity mortgages.
Excellent update, NO1.