May be your best article yet. I’m co-owner of a coin shop in Seattle and can confirm that in our case way more people were selling, than buying silver. And we’ve got absolutely no problem stacking as much of it as we can get. The West is so blind, in general, to what’s happening
Yes, I went to my LCS last week with a pile of cash from a car sale, and they said the same, everyone's selling. I picked up 20 oz of silver and a platinum Kangaroo.
I live in the Once Great Northwest also Mick. A question as a coin dealer. When will supply of silver be restricted to coin dealers, and thus the public? JP has 750 million oz and soon to be 1 billion oz of silver. Other banks are sure to follow quickly. When will Feds announce that silver is both monetary and industrial super-metal? Thus, restricting the public ownership unless purchased through banks, and recorded by Feds.
It’s a great set of questions and one that I don’t think many in the public can answer, if they are being honest. There are a lot of wild cards and the future is looking more and more unpredictable. I think that if the US tried to do what they did in 1934, it would go down much different this time around because of how little trust there is in our government compared to 90 years ago.
I’m encouraged that BRICS+ are forcing their way towards something closer to a sound money standard because I think that’s the only thing that can put our government in check. Long story short, not sure how it’s going to play out but I’m stacking as much physical as I can right now. If you need any gold / silver check out the Seattle Coin Shop!
I will say this however: The online silver dealers are out of stock. Its just the local yokels selling away. The sharps are all in, and I hope the folks here agree.
Hi Lorraine, Gold and Geo is excellent. Also check put Jesse Columbo Substack it is called
The Bubble Bubble Report. It is equal or better. I started my fascination with Silver in 1971. I was 18 with a fake ID, sitting in a workin-man's bar in Las Vegas, having a beer. As I was leaving I put a quarter in a slot machine by the door, and won 3 real Morgan Silver Dollars. I have been hooked ever since. Search out other silver and gold blogs, GOLD FIX..... METALS AND MINERS... BULLION STANDARD does a youtube video once a week. smart guys... Dollar is on it last legs. It will go out with a whimper. Might as well spend dollars on something real and goes up in value. American Silver Eagle 1 oz .999 silver coins. or Canadian Maple Leaf 1oz silver coins.
Putting all the pieces together on what went down over Thanksgiving.... Is there any way to know or forensically deduce which bullion banks are holding the most underwater paper shorts (that they keep rolling forward rather than mark-to-market)? Somebody is rolling forward a truly staggering loss right now and I want to know which bank is in the most pain right now.
This has to be the most fascinating reading on markets and silver. And now I am wondering- what does this do to the average person in North America, not everyone can own physical silver? Lots of predictions on the coming crash. Are they stacking physical silver because the dollar is going to bottom that much, and it will be a source of currency to buy goods?
Thank you for writing this so anyone can understand, you have a gift.
Can the average person own physical silver? Absolutely. Should they? I think 5-10% of wealth in precious metals makes sense. The more the better. Not to buy groceries with - as insurance during the slow motion reset to gold-backed trade settlement (see https://no01.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-blockchain).
I'm not stacking because the dollar will bottom tomorrow. I'm positioning for a systemic transition that's already underway. Institutions outside the West see it. They're accumulating. Western institutions? Nearly No1.
Silver was always "poor man's gold" - but now it is irreplaceable in electronics.
Everyone else not owning real assets (note I did not say "PMs")? They'll feel it through inflation and currency instability. Wealth transfers from paper to hard assets. Financial system stress.
The question isn't whether it's coming. It's basically already here.
Well, if they would be putting their money where their mouth is, there wouldn't be enough silver (or PMs for that matter) in the world to satisfy it.
With banksters: always see what they do, not what they say.
Either way: more is better (I'm about 30% in physical, and 40% in junior miners for the inherent leverage they give. But I'm a true believer (tm).
As what I'm suggesting other people is much more conservative as everyone's situation is different... But a baseline of 5 to 10 percent is prudent from both a financial and a monetary perspective.
Lorraine, you would be shocked at how many dollars we fritter away every day. Read reviews of local coin dealers, and start tomorrow. No more Starbucks or the infinity of mindless purchases we Americans do every single day. Go to the local Coin Shop, meet the owner and talk precious metals. Even if you just buy one American Silver Eagle, you will be hooked. Buy one per week religiously. There is something about the look and feel of precious metals. That will be worth $3222.00 at the end of one year at current prices. But in one year silver will be over $100 per oz anyway. It is not too late. Just ask yourself, "what can you buy for a dollar today?" I remember when gas was 19 cents a gallon during local "Gas Wars". In 1969 a loaf of Wonder Bread was 30 cents.
Nothing is certain. Even not $100. Maybe it'll be $10.
Those are just numbers. What if the dollar next year have like 10000% inflation (who knows? No1 knows...)? And they decide to remove a few zeros... That $10 would be worth $100 true. (got your head swirling already? 😉)
Stacking PMs should not be about numbers. That's backwards thinking. The right way of thinking in my opinion is: what can I do with it? To me, I see it as insurance, retirement fund and inheritance. All at the same time. Not to be touched unless absolutely necessary.
Cash is still useful too. And I agree with Obey: skip the little things like Starbucks. For the cost of 1 coffee, you can grind 1 full kilogram yourself. It just takes a little bit of time. And it'll be so much more delicious. And cheaper. What's not to like thus?
But I digress, where would silver be if we had 10k inflation? Would it be (in comparable terms vs now) $10 or $100? Maybe it will be zero (https://no01.substack.com/p/prediction-silver-will-be-squeezed), and maybe it'll be unavailable at any price (because of laws, shortages, ...)...
Either way, put aside every day/week/month a little. And don't even consider that you have it (otherwise you would be more likely to want to cash it in). Don't be "most people"...
When you go shopping, pass via a pawn shop. If they offer 5% premium or less: buy. Otherwise, come back or ask them to call/mail you when the premium dropped. Buy junk silver (still silver, not very nice though) which is even cheaper comparable to the metal.
My 2ct. There's so much to unpack here that I think will spend a bit of time on how I think and view the world.
never say never... I strongly believe in the fundamentals, but check out the link in my previous comment.
It might be 50, 40, even 10... But you won't be able to get it at those prices ever again. That's the dichotomy you need to keep in mind! The difference between paper and physical.
But I think you're wrong too. (side note: I'm fully invested in both physical and junior silver miners) I still feel we need to get our "first sell-off" (see https://no01.substack.com/p/the-dynamics-of-a-bubble?r=17w5dj)... And October doesn't really classify in my opinion. That was harsh, but not like something that shook off a lot of people.
I'd prefer it to go back down so I can afford more, I'm not seeing that happen though, the underlying shortages won't allow the manipulation to continue.
The bit on JP Morgan flip-flopping: Talk about a "stop & reverse." I wonder what kind of hit they took whilst covering their shorts and reversing long...
This is why the Indian demand numbers badly need validation. The only thing that can save the LBMA is if India backs off demand for actual metal. No amount of paper f*ckery is going to save them from actual real demand for bullion anymore. As long as that is as massive as the numbers you posted in October, there is no way out. But October is before Diwali which is going to be the highest demand of the year for Indians. So I am desperately curious to see the November numbers. Please see if you can find that source!
Also did you notice during the sell-off Friday March futures actually got *closer* to backwardation? Friday close March silver only 16 cents contango now!
The ounces thesis works. Not because metals somehow "deleverage" the world - they don't. But because when paper is being printed by the trillions, the same ounces buy exponentially more of that paper. That's just math.
But here's the real question you're dancing around: why would you use those ounces to clear paper debts?
If the Fed is monetizing everything, if yields are exploding, if currency is being debased at 20% or 50% annually/monthly/daily... trading scarce physical assets for infinite paper promises would be idiotic. Your debt is evaporating in real terms. Just default. Let them repo whatever paper exists. Guard the metals.
That's the actual game theory. think Weimar Germany. Anyone who paid off debt early with real assets during hyperinflation was a sucker.
Now, we're not there yet. Not even close in my opinion.
Right now defaulting on your mortgage to stack silver means you're homeless with destroyed credit. That's still a worse trade. Paper still functions enough that abandoning it completely wrecks you.
But if we get to the scenario you're describing - Fed buying everything, yields exploding, currency crisis - then yeah. Metals win because you wouldn't spend them on paper obligations anyway.
The wealth is in ounces. The question is whether we reach the threshold where paper stops mattering entirely.
No1, Holy Cow! I don't think I have read more poignant sentences than the above response!!!
Do not, however, think for a single moment that the bankers are stupid. They are led by JP/Fed/Treasury, and realize that silver/gold will be the economic saviors for the new and improved DOLLAR. They will put Al Gore in charge of stuffing all the world dollar debt into "The Lock Box." Thus, as long as we close our eyes, the debt Boogeyman can't get us. The charlatan, carnival-barking bankers will slay any human/country that stands in their way. So, of course, all of us precious metal holders will have to sell back to our betters at some point. We only need to stack as much PM as we can, before it is not allowed for honest people to own. A little twist to the old saying, " I am not worried about getting to heaven, I just need a little gold and silver to get there on." We have a little time to glean the precious metal fields, but we must remember that the Bankers/Fed control the clock.
Bueno bueno. Good question. Why would people use gold and silver to deleverage debts when they are evaporating in real time? If the Fed is monetizing a good portion of debt people will wait. If debt is crushing your life now, you will spend some to deleverage. Plus, people are not rational. Not sure how game theory accounts for that.
The countries and their people that own the most gold and silver have the best chance to back their paper with real assets. It will not be distributed equally. The more fiat wealth you have the easier for you to buy gold and silver. How do you reduce the wealth inequality among people and countries?
The central bank problem of sovereign debt is simple. They are sovereign countries. Their central banks can buy all sovereign debt. The countries dissolve the central bank, and the debt disappears. The paper remains, and you tax that heavily. Re-build a new central bank that distributes asset-based paper to everyone equally and converts the remaining paper into new asset-backed notes.
I’m working out what a solution like that means. Paper and digital will exist, because the plumbing is extensive. May as well use that for solving what ails us.
What would xrp’s Day One mean for assets based on debt-based money? Seismic shift. Massive deleveraging. Destroying the debts destroys the assets on the other side. We need to stop the debt and do it smartly.
The most terrifying data point here isn't the RSI, it's the broken arbitrage. When Shanghai trades at a 20% premium and the gap widens rather than closes, global price discovery is officially fractured. The fact that the spot-futures spread moved into backwardation during a paper selloff confirms that the physical market has decoupled from the casino. We are watching the slow-motion death of the paper derivative model.
I am typing my thoughts as an aged boomer who still loves to work. Thank the Lord in Heaven, I still can. Of course, if you are young and in your natural prime, it is necessary to squirrel PMs away. However, there are a hundred million American baby boomers. 10,000 retire every day, and 10,000 die every day. So, our timeframe is limited. Simply, we have a limited time to buy PM and a limited time to sell PM. A dwindling time-frame stares back at us Baby Boomers in the mirror every morning that our eyes open.
The REAL history of currency collapses are the sliver of monetary deceits which are wedged under our fingernails, that will guide us. Young people are not going to read your Substack. The upper high earners are in bed with tech investments, so they are laughing at your words. They feel invincible. I bet the average age of Precious Metal investors is 60+++. Thus your audience.
So, we will have to take profits when PMs temporarily zoom ahead and then reinvest after a correction occurs. So NO1, our children are busy making their own mistakes now, our grandchildren are battling the wokesters, and sadly losing that battle. You have sage advice, but most of your readers are battling age first and look at Precious metals as the way for keeping our spouse healthy and keeping the woke gov/bank wolves away from the door, until it is time to push up daisies.
If you wish us boomers to buy your Substack, then we need sound, exacting advice or a reasonable facsimile before we pay you. That is sadly the time-mandated reality. I want to buy your subscription right now, but I am awaiting your response. So, if you feel so inclined, let us old folks in on a few of your secrets.
Pay me? I'm not going to charge a penny. Ever. Not because this stuff isn't worth it - it absolutely is - but because information like this needs to circulate far and wide. Free. Unpaywalled. Accessible.
Look, I write this for two reasons. One, to help people see what's happening behind the curtain. Two, to structure my own thoughts about how the world actually works. Writing forces clarity. You can't bullshit yourself when you're putting words on paper.
But if you are looking for trading signals -buy here, sell there, rotate back in after the dip. That's not what this blog is about.
I see my PM stack as my inheritance, and my kids are taught from very young to have respect for money and metals. I'm not "most people" and I'm definitely not running a newsletter telling retirees when to flip their eagles for dollars and back again. That sounds exhausting. And frankly? If I knew the exact tops and bottoms, I'd be on a yacht somewhere. Still typing words into a void likely 😉.
What I write about is the system. The mechanics of how we got here, where the pressure points are, what happens when currency trust breaks down. Sometimes I'll point at charts or data that scream "something's wrong here" - but I'm not your financial advisor. I can't be. You've got your own situation, your own timeline, your own risk tolerance.
You mention you've got a dwindling timeframe. Fair enough. But metals aren't a trade for me. They're insurance. You don't flip your homeowner's policy every time the premium ticks up. You hold it because the alternative is getting wiped out when something breaks.
The information is free because it should be. People need to understand what's coming. Not so they can trade it, but so they can prepare for it.
Happily still some of your sort around. Everything is not about money, You do not need to stack unlimited of everything, because that is hoarding and leads to greed.
The old saying: your weight in Gold is the upper limit. (Meaning you are stinking rich) Share the rest.
I'm going to keep that in mind. It aligns pretty good with my own life philosophy. Not there yet. Not even close (about 3% there). But once I do, I'll start sharing.
To be fair, every human should have an equal share of existing gold on earth, that would be approx. 50 gram.
Being stinking rich would be 20x that, so approx. 1 KG.
So all your assets together should not exceed that value. That is the new weight in Gold.
AND, not the least, abolish owning land. Nobody can own land, but humans can claim reasonable areas for actively present living and producing. No activity? it returns to free land again, for others to claim. Assets though (buildings) can be owned.
I'm not Ariana Grande!! 😂 I weigh more than 1kg ...
Your land system creates a permanent game of musical chairs. Prime agricultural land, strategic locations, areas with natural resources - these would face constant pressure. Who decides what counts as "active use"? A family farming vs. a developer who'd extract more value? Someone living there vs. someone who'd house more people?
And the enforcement becomes nightmarish. You'd need a massive bureaucracy constantly monitoring land use, adjudicating disputes, measuring "activity". Every harvest season, vacation, illness, or temporary lull becomes a vulnerability. The system incentivizes never-ending visible activity just to maintain claims, which is economically wasteful.
The competition wouldn't just be for initial claims - it's perpetual. Stronger groups could strategically withdraw then immediately reclaim land from weaker ones. You'd likely see the same power dynamics as ownership, just with extra steps and instability.
Historically, commons did work, but in limited contexts: shared grazing rights, village commons, etc. These weren't "no one owns this" but "the community collectively manages this". That's different from your free-for-all claim system.
What problem are you actually trying to solve? If it's wealth concentration, there are simpler tools: (progressive) land value taxes, inheritance limits, usage requirements for zoned land. If it's ensuring productive use, that's already addressable without eliminating property rights entirely.
The ownership concept evolved precisely because it reduced conflict over resources. Your system reintroduces that conflict permanently.
These were concepts, not fully developed solutions and yes, implementing these in today's system would without doubt create the problems you describe.
Also things do not need to be taken literally. Weight in gold is an indication and since it is ancient can not be used in today's world, we adjust for population and a more just world. Then a cap of 1 kg makes sense. It gives you the opportunity to live in luxury. What more do you need? Trillions to impress? To cover your insecurity that thinks that more money is more human or successful? Change rather your social credit to what you contribute to humanity. Everything over the cap flows back to humanity, so your legend becomes how much did you manager to flow back?
A description of a society that fits those concepts better would be
You are a better man than I, and maybe a tad more honest too. As for home owners' insurance, I flip it whenever I get a cheaper quote. I check for cheaper car insurance every 6 months. To not do so would be the way a millennial thinks. I buy folders ground coffee, as an old person's taste buds are suspect and I rarely can determine quality of coffee. Folders is just the cheapest coffee in the grocery store. I drink a pot a day on the way to Seattle for work every morning. I shop at Walmart as they are hands down the cheapest grocery store around. However, I can taste burnt Starbucks coffee even when you take a sip. I have bought silver dollars since 1980s. I also bought old 14k wedding bands when they were 10 dollars a gram. Whenever I tallied 3 or 4 ounces and markets were up, I sold them for cash at a pawn shop for 85%. Refiners will pay 90-95% in Portland or Seattle. They won't pay cash, but check or direct deposit. If you worry about access to your bank account, all you need is a direct deposit account and transfer right away to separate savings account.
I love your thoughts and of course will share your Substack with my tightfisted boomer friends. Best for new year and hope you have terrific, and great CHRISTMAS.
Thanks for a really insightful read. Imagine the thought process behind selling a rare hard asset for a depreciating paper one which is being printed into oblivion…
May be your best article yet. I’m co-owner of a coin shop in Seattle and can confirm that in our case way more people were selling, than buying silver. And we’ve got absolutely no problem stacking as much of it as we can get. The West is so blind, in general, to what’s happening
Yes, I went to my LCS last week with a pile of cash from a car sale, and they said the same, everyone's selling. I picked up 20 oz of silver and a platinum Kangaroo.
I live in the Once Great Northwest also Mick. A question as a coin dealer. When will supply of silver be restricted to coin dealers, and thus the public? JP has 750 million oz and soon to be 1 billion oz of silver. Other banks are sure to follow quickly. When will Feds announce that silver is both monetary and industrial super-metal? Thus, restricting the public ownership unless purchased through banks, and recorded by Feds.
It’s a great set of questions and one that I don’t think many in the public can answer, if they are being honest. There are a lot of wild cards and the future is looking more and more unpredictable. I think that if the US tried to do what they did in 1934, it would go down much different this time around because of how little trust there is in our government compared to 90 years ago.
I’m encouraged that BRICS+ are forcing their way towards something closer to a sound money standard because I think that’s the only thing that can put our government in check. Long story short, not sure how it’s going to play out but I’m stacking as much physical as I can right now. If you need any gold / silver check out the Seattle Coin Shop!
Sadly I think the sellers are often sellers of necessity. They got bills to pay and they think Silver's peaking out.
I will say this however: The online silver dealers are out of stock. Its just the local yokels selling away. The sharps are all in, and I hope the folks here agree.
Awesome economic intel and well-written too. Many thanks!
Hi Lorraine, Gold and Geo is excellent. Also check put Jesse Columbo Substack it is called
The Bubble Bubble Report. It is equal or better. I started my fascination with Silver in 1971. I was 18 with a fake ID, sitting in a workin-man's bar in Las Vegas, having a beer. As I was leaving I put a quarter in a slot machine by the door, and won 3 real Morgan Silver Dollars. I have been hooked ever since. Search out other silver and gold blogs, GOLD FIX..... METALS AND MINERS... BULLION STANDARD does a youtube video once a week. smart guys... Dollar is on it last legs. It will go out with a whimper. Might as well spend dollars on something real and goes up in value. American Silver Eagle 1 oz .999 silver coins. or Canadian Maple Leaf 1oz silver coins.
Extremely exciting information ! Thank you very much. I feel the tectonic plates shifting beneath the soles of my feet.
Putting all the pieces together on what went down over Thanksgiving.... Is there any way to know or forensically deduce which bullion banks are holding the most underwater paper shorts (that they keep rolling forward rather than mark-to-market)? Somebody is rolling forward a truly staggering loss right now and I want to know which bank is in the most pain right now.
This has to be the most fascinating reading on markets and silver. And now I am wondering- what does this do to the average person in North America, not everyone can own physical silver? Lots of predictions on the coming crash. Are they stacking physical silver because the dollar is going to bottom that much, and it will be a source of currency to buy goods?
Thank you for writing this so anyone can understand, you have a gift.
Thanks for the kind words!
Can the average person own physical silver? Absolutely. Should they? I think 5-10% of wealth in precious metals makes sense. The more the better. Not to buy groceries with - as insurance during the slow motion reset to gold-backed trade settlement (see https://no01.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-blockchain).
I'm not stacking because the dollar will bottom tomorrow. I'm positioning for a systemic transition that's already underway. Institutions outside the West see it. They're accumulating. Western institutions? Nearly No1.
Silver was always "poor man's gold" - but now it is irreplaceable in electronics.
Everyone else not owning real assets (note I did not say "PMs")? They'll feel it through inflation and currency instability. Wealth transfers from paper to hard assets. Financial system stress.
The question isn't whether it's coming. It's basically already here.
Are you positioned for it?
Even Morgan Stanley is saying 20
Well, if they would be putting their money where their mouth is, there wouldn't be enough silver (or PMs for that matter) in the world to satisfy it.
With banksters: always see what they do, not what they say.
Either way: more is better (I'm about 30% in physical, and 40% in junior miners for the inherent leverage they give. But I'm a true believer (tm).
As what I'm suggesting other people is much more conservative as everyone's situation is different... But a baseline of 5 to 10 percent is prudent from both a financial and a monetary perspective.
what about buying jpm given that they had so much phisical silver and they've given up shorting it?
Lorraine, you would be shocked at how many dollars we fritter away every day. Read reviews of local coin dealers, and start tomorrow. No more Starbucks or the infinity of mindless purchases we Americans do every single day. Go to the local Coin Shop, meet the owner and talk precious metals. Even if you just buy one American Silver Eagle, you will be hooked. Buy one per week religiously. There is something about the look and feel of precious metals. That will be worth $3222.00 at the end of one year at current prices. But in one year silver will be over $100 per oz anyway. It is not too late. Just ask yourself, "what can you buy for a dollar today?" I remember when gas was 19 cents a gallon during local "Gas Wars". In 1969 a loaf of Wonder Bread was 30 cents.
Nothing is certain. Even not $100. Maybe it'll be $10.
Those are just numbers. What if the dollar next year have like 10000% inflation (who knows? No1 knows...)? And they decide to remove a few zeros... That $10 would be worth $100 true. (got your head swirling already? 😉)
Stacking PMs should not be about numbers. That's backwards thinking. The right way of thinking in my opinion is: what can I do with it? To me, I see it as insurance, retirement fund and inheritance. All at the same time. Not to be touched unless absolutely necessary.
Cash is still useful too. And I agree with Obey: skip the little things like Starbucks. For the cost of 1 coffee, you can grind 1 full kilogram yourself. It just takes a little bit of time. And it'll be so much more delicious. And cheaper. What's not to like thus?
But I digress, where would silver be if we had 10k inflation? Would it be (in comparable terms vs now) $10 or $100? Maybe it will be zero (https://no01.substack.com/p/prediction-silver-will-be-squeezed), and maybe it'll be unavailable at any price (because of laws, shortages, ...)...
Either way, put aside every day/week/month a little. And don't even consider that you have it (otherwise you would be more likely to want to cash it in). Don't be "most people"...
When you go shopping, pass via a pawn shop. If they offer 5% premium or less: buy. Otherwise, come back or ask them to call/mail you when the premium dropped. Buy junk silver (still silver, not very nice though) which is even cheaper comparable to the metal.
My 2ct. There's so much to unpack here that I think will spend a bit of time on how I think and view the world.
Silver will never go below 50 again.
never say never... I strongly believe in the fundamentals, but check out the link in my previous comment.
It might be 50, 40, even 10... But you won't be able to get it at those prices ever again. That's the dichotomy you need to keep in mind! The difference between paper and physical.
But I think you're wrong too. (side note: I'm fully invested in both physical and junior silver miners) I still feel we need to get our "first sell-off" (see https://no01.substack.com/p/the-dynamics-of-a-bubble?r=17w5dj)... And October doesn't really classify in my opinion. That was harsh, but not like something that shook off a lot of people.
My opinions though
I'd prefer it to go back down so I can afford more, I'm not seeing that happen though, the underlying shortages won't allow the manipulation to continue.
💯
The bit on JP Morgan flip-flopping: Talk about a "stop & reverse." I wonder what kind of hit they took whilst covering their shorts and reversing long...
This is why the Indian demand numbers badly need validation. The only thing that can save the LBMA is if India backs off demand for actual metal. No amount of paper f*ckery is going to save them from actual real demand for bullion anymore. As long as that is as massive as the numbers you posted in October, there is no way out. But October is before Diwali which is going to be the highest demand of the year for Indians. So I am desperately curious to see the November numbers. Please see if you can find that source!
Also did you notice during the sell-off Friday March futures actually got *closer* to backwardation? Friday close March silver only 16 cents contango now!
What happens when US debt issuance increases, the Fed has to buy it, Japanese and US yields explode, or Europe dumps Treasuries?
Bitcoin and crypto are not the answer. Anything real will be. Won’t be paper.
Let us all be mindful and make sure real wealth is increasing, in ozs. No use checking in elastic dollars.
The rise of silver and gold will help deleverage the world.
The ounces thesis works. Not because metals somehow "deleverage" the world - they don't. But because when paper is being printed by the trillions, the same ounces buy exponentially more of that paper. That's just math.
But here's the real question you're dancing around: why would you use those ounces to clear paper debts?
If the Fed is monetizing everything, if yields are exploding, if currency is being debased at 20% or 50% annually/monthly/daily... trading scarce physical assets for infinite paper promises would be idiotic. Your debt is evaporating in real terms. Just default. Let them repo whatever paper exists. Guard the metals.
That's the actual game theory. think Weimar Germany. Anyone who paid off debt early with real assets during hyperinflation was a sucker.
Now, we're not there yet. Not even close in my opinion.
Right now defaulting on your mortgage to stack silver means you're homeless with destroyed credit. That's still a worse trade. Paper still functions enough that abandoning it completely wrecks you.
But if we get to the scenario you're describing - Fed buying everything, yields exploding, currency crisis - then yeah. Metals win because you wouldn't spend them on paper obligations anyway.
The wealth is in ounces. The question is whether we reach the threshold where paper stops mattering entirely.
We might. But we're not there today.
No1, Holy Cow! I don't think I have read more poignant sentences than the above response!!!
Do not, however, think for a single moment that the bankers are stupid. They are led by JP/Fed/Treasury, and realize that silver/gold will be the economic saviors for the new and improved DOLLAR. They will put Al Gore in charge of stuffing all the world dollar debt into "The Lock Box." Thus, as long as we close our eyes, the debt Boogeyman can't get us. The charlatan, carnival-barking bankers will slay any human/country that stands in their way. So, of course, all of us precious metal holders will have to sell back to our betters at some point. We only need to stack as much PM as we can, before it is not allowed for honest people to own. A little twist to the old saying, " I am not worried about getting to heaven, I just need a little gold and silver to get there on." We have a little time to glean the precious metal fields, but we must remember that the Bankers/Fed control the clock.
Bueno bueno. Good question. Why would people use gold and silver to deleverage debts when they are evaporating in real time? If the Fed is monetizing a good portion of debt people will wait. If debt is crushing your life now, you will spend some to deleverage. Plus, people are not rational. Not sure how game theory accounts for that.
The countries and their people that own the most gold and silver have the best chance to back their paper with real assets. It will not be distributed equally. The more fiat wealth you have the easier for you to buy gold and silver. How do you reduce the wealth inequality among people and countries?
The central bank problem of sovereign debt is simple. They are sovereign countries. Their central banks can buy all sovereign debt. The countries dissolve the central bank, and the debt disappears. The paper remains, and you tax that heavily. Re-build a new central bank that distributes asset-based paper to everyone equally and converts the remaining paper into new asset-backed notes.
I’m working out what a solution like that means. Paper and digital will exist, because the plumbing is extensive. May as well use that for solving what ails us.
https://open.substack.com/pub/xrpmanchester/p/seven-days-to-honest-money
What would xrp’s Day One mean for assets based on debt-based money? Seismic shift. Massive deleveraging. Destroying the debts destroys the assets on the other side. We need to stop the debt and do it smartly.
Brilliant synopsis of the current and future (likely) situation.
Impressive insights and writing. 🎯
Wasn’t it Ayn Rand who said something along the lines that you don’t really know what you think until you can write it down? You think so well. 💭
And we are grateful for the priceless education you provide for free. 🙏🏽
Thanks. Ayn Rand has had a huge impact on my world view.
Atlas Shrugged — my favorite book read of all time.
It also influenced my beliefs, directions, and actions greatly.
Do you have a recommendations for a retail buyer who sees what you see (great article btw) and is deciding between bars and coins or what % of each.
I was starting to write my answer, but it got a bit lengthy. And I thought it'd be interesting to more people. So I moved it into a post: https://no01.substack.com/p/what-physical-should-i-buy
Thank you. Amazing article. And luckily for me I’ve been acquiring for a while now.
Absolutely. Slow -near mechanical- accumulation is the best. Takes out the emotions.
The most terrifying data point here isn't the RSI, it's the broken arbitrage. When Shanghai trades at a 20% premium and the gap widens rather than closes, global price discovery is officially fractured. The fact that the spot-futures spread moved into backwardation during a paper selloff confirms that the physical market has decoupled from the casino. We are watching the slow-motion death of the paper derivative model.
Hi Mick I will pop in. Thanks, Jim C.
I am typing my thoughts as an aged boomer who still loves to work. Thank the Lord in Heaven, I still can. Of course, if you are young and in your natural prime, it is necessary to squirrel PMs away. However, there are a hundred million American baby boomers. 10,000 retire every day, and 10,000 die every day. So, our timeframe is limited. Simply, we have a limited time to buy PM and a limited time to sell PM. A dwindling time-frame stares back at us Baby Boomers in the mirror every morning that our eyes open.
The REAL history of currency collapses are the sliver of monetary deceits which are wedged under our fingernails, that will guide us. Young people are not going to read your Substack. The upper high earners are in bed with tech investments, so they are laughing at your words. They feel invincible. I bet the average age of Precious Metal investors is 60+++. Thus your audience.
So, we will have to take profits when PMs temporarily zoom ahead and then reinvest after a correction occurs. So NO1, our children are busy making their own mistakes now, our grandchildren are battling the wokesters, and sadly losing that battle. You have sage advice, but most of your readers are battling age first and look at Precious metals as the way for keeping our spouse healthy and keeping the woke gov/bank wolves away from the door, until it is time to push up daisies.
If you wish us boomers to buy your Substack, then we need sound, exacting advice or a reasonable facsimile before we pay you. That is sadly the time-mandated reality. I want to buy your subscription right now, but I am awaiting your response. So, if you feel so inclined, let us old folks in on a few of your secrets.
Pay me? I'm not going to charge a penny. Ever. Not because this stuff isn't worth it - it absolutely is - but because information like this needs to circulate far and wide. Free. Unpaywalled. Accessible.
Look, I write this for two reasons. One, to help people see what's happening behind the curtain. Two, to structure my own thoughts about how the world actually works. Writing forces clarity. You can't bullshit yourself when you're putting words on paper.
But if you are looking for trading signals -buy here, sell there, rotate back in after the dip. That's not what this blog is about.
I see my PM stack as my inheritance, and my kids are taught from very young to have respect for money and metals. I'm not "most people" and I'm definitely not running a newsletter telling retirees when to flip their eagles for dollars and back again. That sounds exhausting. And frankly? If I knew the exact tops and bottoms, I'd be on a yacht somewhere. Still typing words into a void likely 😉.
What I write about is the system. The mechanics of how we got here, where the pressure points are, what happens when currency trust breaks down. Sometimes I'll point at charts or data that scream "something's wrong here" - but I'm not your financial advisor. I can't be. You've got your own situation, your own timeline, your own risk tolerance.
You mention you've got a dwindling timeframe. Fair enough. But metals aren't a trade for me. They're insurance. You don't flip your homeowner's policy every time the premium ticks up. You hold it because the alternative is getting wiped out when something breaks.
The information is free because it should be. People need to understand what's coming. Not so they can trade it, but so they can prepare for it.
Happily still some of your sort around. Everything is not about money, You do not need to stack unlimited of everything, because that is hoarding and leads to greed.
The old saying: your weight in Gold is the upper limit. (Meaning you are stinking rich) Share the rest.
I'm going to keep that in mind. It aligns pretty good with my own life philosophy. Not there yet. Not even close (about 3% there). But once I do, I'll start sharing.
I need to elaborate.
To be fair, every human should have an equal share of existing gold on earth, that would be approx. 50 gram.
Being stinking rich would be 20x that, so approx. 1 KG.
So all your assets together should not exceed that value. That is the new weight in Gold.
AND, not the least, abolish owning land. Nobody can own land, but humans can claim reasonable areas for actively present living and producing. No activity? it returns to free land again, for others to claim. Assets though (buildings) can be owned.
I'm not Ariana Grande!! 😂 I weigh more than 1kg ...
Your land system creates a permanent game of musical chairs. Prime agricultural land, strategic locations, areas with natural resources - these would face constant pressure. Who decides what counts as "active use"? A family farming vs. a developer who'd extract more value? Someone living there vs. someone who'd house more people?
And the enforcement becomes nightmarish. You'd need a massive bureaucracy constantly monitoring land use, adjudicating disputes, measuring "activity". Every harvest season, vacation, illness, or temporary lull becomes a vulnerability. The system incentivizes never-ending visible activity just to maintain claims, which is economically wasteful.
The competition wouldn't just be for initial claims - it's perpetual. Stronger groups could strategically withdraw then immediately reclaim land from weaker ones. You'd likely see the same power dynamics as ownership, just with extra steps and instability.
Historically, commons did work, but in limited contexts: shared grazing rights, village commons, etc. These weren't "no one owns this" but "the community collectively manages this". That's different from your free-for-all claim system.
What problem are you actually trying to solve? If it's wealth concentration, there are simpler tools: (progressive) land value taxes, inheritance limits, usage requirements for zoned land. If it's ensuring productive use, that's already addressable without eliminating property rights entirely.
The ownership concept evolved precisely because it reduced conflict over resources. Your system reintroduces that conflict permanently.
These were concepts, not fully developed solutions and yes, implementing these in today's system would without doubt create the problems you describe.
Also things do not need to be taken literally. Weight in gold is an indication and since it is ancient can not be used in today's world, we adjust for population and a more just world. Then a cap of 1 kg makes sense. It gives you the opportunity to live in luxury. What more do you need? Trillions to impress? To cover your insecurity that thinks that more money is more human or successful? Change rather your social credit to what you contribute to humanity. Everything over the cap flows back to humanity, so your legend becomes how much did you manager to flow back?
A description of a society that fits those concepts better would be
https://jessyf.substack.com/p/toward-a-sovereign-justice-system
You are a better man than I, and maybe a tad more honest too. As for home owners' insurance, I flip it whenever I get a cheaper quote. I check for cheaper car insurance every 6 months. To not do so would be the way a millennial thinks. I buy folders ground coffee, as an old person's taste buds are suspect and I rarely can determine quality of coffee. Folders is just the cheapest coffee in the grocery store. I drink a pot a day on the way to Seattle for work every morning. I shop at Walmart as they are hands down the cheapest grocery store around. However, I can taste burnt Starbucks coffee even when you take a sip. I have bought silver dollars since 1980s. I also bought old 14k wedding bands when they were 10 dollars a gram. Whenever I tallied 3 or 4 ounces and markets were up, I sold them for cash at a pawn shop for 85%. Refiners will pay 90-95% in Portland or Seattle. They won't pay cash, but check or direct deposit. If you worry about access to your bank account, all you need is a direct deposit account and transfer right away to separate savings account.
I love your thoughts and of course will share your Substack with my tightfisted boomer friends. Best for new year and hope you have terrific, and great CHRISTMAS.
Modern Money Shysters are evil predatory vermin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for a really insightful read. Imagine the thought process behind selling a rare hard asset for a depreciating paper one which is being printed into oblivion…