Hilarious, ridiculously entertaining and more. True talent.
It means holding “the baby” (physical) would not be so smart when compared to imaginary where you could put a stop loss and run for the hills.
They are betting the Ranch that AI will deliver (one spring and he was free). If it doesn’t and the wheels fall off…oh my word. It will make 2000 look like a Chimps tea party.
You have given us, your readers, many ideas for fiction plots; sci-fi and horror authors might run with your ideas, TV and movie script writers may glom onto these scenarios with glee, but I'm voting for the aliens 👽. The truth is out there somewhere.
Exquisite journey through the windmills in/of your mind.
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Any of your scenarios theoretically could manifest, yet I'd place every one at a probability of less than 1/10th of a percent.
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I'm an electrical engineer in power construction for my entire career and will offer my guidance on copper and silver: They won't be appreciably displaced in our lifetimes. Their properties have been stable because of where they are in the periodic table. They have become more immersed within our technologies, decade by decade for hundreds of years, because they are essentially perfect for their use cases. Same for gold used in technologies. Now, Platinum and Palladium probably have many new use cases and importance across the next few decades.
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Finally and more importantly, we didn't have XRF or other fancy tools in the past to prove the purity of gold and it has always been perceived as genuine money.
So aluminum won't replace silver any time soon. Closest is copper, which probably will be used in solar panels as the price of silver is getting too high. Little less conductivity, but a HUGE drop in price.
Silver is, also, the best metal for thermal conductivity @ 429W/m > K (surprised that I never see that factoid mentioned).
Copper is close @ 385-401W/m > K conductivity, which believe it or not in specialized, high-performance applications rules Cu out when it counts (Ag is also more stable).
Buy once, cry once 😭
FWIW, Terry apparently was theorizing about the possibility of some type of *new* aluminum alloy breakthrough (exotic metallurgical config), which from what I know about Al would probably involve a replicator-esque device beyond current science (that I'm aware of).
Alchemy indeed!
If anyone would be on that path it would be the Chinese & they're buying Ag as fast as they can find it, prices be damned 📈
Note: I was trying to be playfully pertinent, not disrespectful, there's plenty of that on The Stream & I'm too old school to engage in schoolyard mean spirited banter, which is why I'm read-only with Xtwitter et al. (no *active* social media accounts).
I'll be one of the first to see it if developed, however, while widely used in normal forms, aluminum has many disadvantages used in electrical power circuits. In the trades, we consider aluminum inferior with only price as a reason it is used.
That's not really true. It pays off to think ahead: where will it be 1 year from now? Because if I see weakness coming up (or a complete disconnect from reality like CRWV), I can act upon it. So if I see gold 3k (I don't), I would take money gradually out of the market, or ride the bubble with very tight stops. But if I see gold grinding higher, I would allocate more to that.
As long stated: I think we will keep using fiat money, credit cards etc INSIDE our respective countries. And trade balances will be settled by physically moving real commodities (be it gold, silver, goat cheese or something else).
The over looked problem with digital everything is energy. There isn't enough and there is unlikely to be. Even if they come up with "free" energy, the problem of moving it through the system still comes up against the "raw materials to expand the infrastructure" doesn't go away. AI isn't for making wealth anyhow, it's for control. The hype for it is to gain enough coin to build out the infrastructure to watch over and control everything. The idea is already running into an energy supply problem. Catherine Austin Fitts mentions it in a conversation with Andy Schectman here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZQRMJUzH4k
"AI isn't for making wealth anyhow, it's for control. The hype for it is to gain enough coin to build out the infrastructure to watch over and control everything."
"Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism by Yanis Varoufakis argues that traditional capitalism has been replaced by a new system where big tech companies act as modern-day feudal lords, extracting "rent" from users through their platforms, much like lords extracted labor from serfs. In this "technofeudal" system, the pillars of capitalism (markets and profit) have been supplanted by platforms and rents, with users unknowingly providing free labor (clicks, data) that enriches tech giants, creating a new form of digital serfdom."
I'd argue that the birth of which actually began with the advent of mainframe computers in markets & government, where statistical controls became an automated reality (late 60s, early 70s).
Every time I hear Elon pontificate about UBI that's all I hear...
If "humanity" doesn't assert the Natural Rights of God's creation, the Right to Life, Health, Liberty & The Pursuit of Possessions/Property (John Locke 1690/James Otis 1765), The Technofeudal overlords will become trillionaire$ & end up owning everything.
It's amazing that the system created & owned by We The People was given away for free, without any control (ARPANET > Internet) will in the end up turning us all into slaves.
“The insanity of the collective egoic mind, amplified by science and technology, is rapidly taking our species to the brink of disaster. Evolve or die: that is our only choice now.” — Eckhart Tolle 2004
I recommend that you study Jim Rikards' Curriculum Vitae and watch his YouTube channel to get an idea of the future of this crisis. Among other things, he worked for the CIA or other American government institutions and knows well how the system works.
Brilliant article. Funny, easy to read and a lot of real facts. Impressive.
By the way your scenario of AI economic success and US economic growth/tax revenue is not nearly as far fetched as most people think. 1. The US government is ALL IN - US military dependence 2. huge amounts of PRIVATE financing availabe 3. the companies involved have huge cash inflows AND proven track record. So maybe 50/50
I didn't really mean to present any real facts. Mission failed I guess 😥😉😂
Like another commenter said: probability of maybe 1/10th of a percent.
As for AI economic growth saving the day... I doubt it'll happen like you think. My take: [https://no01.substack.com/p/the-trillion-dollar-oops]. First the rot needs to be cleaned out. And with "rot" I mean the whole bureaucratic mess in companies, monopolies and politics. ALL of it.
Oh, and don't forget we don't even have close to the energy we need to make it happen.
But China does.
My take: we already lost. We're in catch-up mode. Just look at the AI teams - mostly Asian faces. That tells you something.
I think AI is a transformational technology and WILL be either used to enslave humanity OR empower humanity. Not sure which will win, but I hope for the latter.
The US being "ALL IN" doesn't mean we're positioned to win. It just means we're desperate.
You are correct about energy and catch up mode!! But I think the Trump admin recognizes this and is trying (may be too late) to resolve. You are correct about Desperate. its now or never. So I stick with 50/50 and invest accordingly especially now with preclous metal profts. China has its big advantages BUT the US has Musk, Cook, Huang, Karp and their teams who I think are the BEST in the world. So lets check back in 2 -3years from now.
Merrill Lynch’s legendary technical analyst Bob Farrell always reminded investors that ALL markets eventually “revert to the mean”. Comparing current gold and silver prices to their long-term moving averages must concern those aware of the consequences of mean reversion.
And reversions to the mean agreed. But what is "the mean" when those PMs (indicators of both money printing and geopolitical instability) are suppressed for decades in favor of the fiat dollar? That "mean" is mean-ingless.
We can all take a gander at what their final prices will be.
The problem with that reversion to the mean will be that it exposes the whole frickin' house of cards that was built upon fake money (and yes, true money in my opinion is gold & silver). More and more people won't know what's real anymore, will wake up. Or maybe I give too much credit to "people"? Because corona showed me 1 thing: only maybe 5 to 10% of people have their eyes open (and only 1% of that amount was vocal enough). So I'll guess it'll be similar for this awakening.
Gold will grind higher in my opinion, not really spike unless the dollar is further weaponized in an abrupt way. Silver is too cheap to recycle. So it's taken out of circulation completely when appliances are thrown away. So the GSR needs to be a lot lower. 1:1 is a stretch, but maybe something closer to historical averages? (https://no01.substack.com/p/the-gold-to-silver-ratio)
i believe your point about PM means is valid. In a FREE MARKET, one where price rises and falls based primarily on fundamentals and not manipulation, then reversions to the mean will happen naturally. But all bets are off when the price, in this case, has been suppressed for a very long time. Doing that synthetically suppresses the mean, just as it suppresses the price. When the suppression ends, the price will rise without reference to the moving average.
Reversions to the mean never become apparent until they happen. One trigger to get the ball rolling may be the pullback in the dollar (DXY, $USD, $DXY). While it’s very bullish for the precious metals, looking beyond that, it may result in a cascade of foreign U.S. Treasury holders dumping while they can still salvage some value. That selling drives the price down and yields up and Treasuries become attractive for new buyers. Higher bond yields may just be the pin that punctures precious metals’ bubble. Bull markets always look invincible until they don’t. Then they revert to the mean.
I don't think of this as a classic bull market. (Yeah, this time it's different...) Precious metals aren't rising due to their own value drivers, or catching a general wave of market euphoria. They're rising because:
1) decades of price suppression against PM's 'appear' to have ended, while;
2) the overall economic/geopolitical picture creates safe haven demand.
Precious metals are behaving 'abnormally' by the usual market standards. But when one examines the market conditions today, PM's are behaving very rationally.
Again, that doesn't mean there won't be corrections and reversals along the way to finding the sustainable and justifiables price for precious metals.
I think we're seeing different reversions here. Higher yields might make Treasuries look attractive on paper, but that assumes the underlying value proposition holds. And I'm not convinced it does.
Volcker could raise rates to 20% because the debt-to-GDP ratio was under 40%. Today it's north of 120%. Every percentage point increase in rates adds hundreds of billions to annual interest payments. The government is already spending more on interest than defense. So we're trapped - high bond rates to defend the currency and you break the fiscal situation. Keep rates suppressed and you destroy the currency anyway.
The reversion happening isn't PMs reverting back to paper assets. It's paper assets reverting to what they actually represent - which is a lot less purchasing power than markets have been pricing in. When that gap closes, gold doesn't necessarily fall. Everything else just catches up to reality.
So for now, I'm riding this bull. When I step out of it, I'll report on it as well 😉. But I'll always keep my stack.
Higher bond yields won’t result from government actions. In fact, there seems to be much discussion about the FED engaging in yield curve control if necessary to support bond prices. Unfortunately for the FED the bond market is much bigger than they can handle and when the bond liquidation avalanche gets going, they’ll only be able to stare at it helplessly. Equity markets and commodities and PMs will all get caught up in the avalanche.
So Angel’s $3000 might end up being the mean…maybe even lower. All possibilities have to be considered. If you want to make money in the markets you MUST lose your ego. Approach the markets with lots of humility.
Yellowstone erupting, aliens arriving with otherworldly tech and Antarctica revealing an ancient culture with special technology are bearing down on the issue of relevance of monetary instruments when everything else in an economy becomes different.
I haven't read the comments. This was my first impression.
No1 might have a future in Sci-Fi or a field I like - alternative history.
Alt histroy has a term "Alien space bats" (ASBs). I have another one I use "Martians w/ray guns show up." From google: ASBs is a term in alternate history fiction referring to implausible, deus ex machina scenarios where, without rational explanation, the laws of physics change, time travel occurs, or aliens interfere, often making impossible points of divergence (POD). It is used to mock, or describe, narratives that require such "alien space bats" to make the plot work.
You had PODs from the reasonable to some ASBs!! 😲
In all seriousness, that was a tour de force, and it makes one pause from all the recent giddiness we in the PM brotherhood have been feeling lately.
You're hilarious! But you're right. We have to force ourselves to be as objective as we can be, including acknowledging that we are not God -- we do not know everything, in fact, we don't really know for sure much of anything we think we know. It's a good exercise to think these things through. It certainly makes one not put all the proverbial eggs in the same basket. Even God teaches us that through the Proverbs of Solomon.
Just saw this article -- to your point ... hmmmmm ... what if they start using Copper / Base metals instead of Silver in solar panels? Well, it appears you may have stirred something up in the ether --
As far as viruses and "pandemics" are concerned, you really need to go find, read, digest Mike Stone and his ViroLIEgy newsletter. Others are Sam Bailey and Jamie Andrews, for a good start (there are lots of others) ... all on substack. I'm a retired MD -- Immunology/Rheum/IntMedicine
Copper is slightly worse in terms of electric conductivity (and thanks to Poet I know thermal is slightly worse as well). So that'd be a decent replacement yes.
Fabulously entertaining NO 1 thank you for a lovely trip into the future. "why their mathematics uses base-12 instead of base-10 and whether that means anything." It does, which is why we have 360 degs in a circle, among other interesting numbers. 12 is the only number divisible by more numbers resulting in a whole number. Probably why UK used £s, shillings, and pence.
Antarctica map: Romans were growing wine grapes in Britain during the Climate Optimum. Then we had the Medieval Warm Period. Then the Little Ice Age hit. So maybe this knowledge predates Antarctica freezing over and somehow got preserved through all those cycles?
Would be a fun wrinkle in the climate narrative - it's always been changing. We just weren't around with spreadsheets and carbon credits for most of it.
I never took a course in Number theory although I wanted to. There's only so much math you can study as the body of knowledge is enoumous. OTOH, I've always been interrsted in prime & perfect numbers. The large primes still used in modern cryptography.
I did a bit of quick research on 12.
It's an Abundant/Sublime Number: It is the smallest (so there are more) abundant number (sum of divisors is greater than the number) and one of only two known "sublime numbers," meaning it has a perfect number of divisors, and the sum of those divisors is also a perfect number. The latter is FANTASTIC !
Sublime numbers are rare integers where both the total count of divisors and the sum of all divisors are perfect numbers. ONLY TWO are currently known: 12, divisors (1,2,3,4,6,12); count is 6 [perfect], sum is 28 [perfect]). And a massive 76-digit number. They represent a unique intersection of number theory, specifically involving Mersenne primes. AMAZING !
Thank you John - yes 12 is indeed magical: "The number 12 is more than just a figure you see every day. "It carries a rich tapestry of meanings that connect you to cycles, balance, and harmony in both the natural world and human culture." A quick review: https://deepsymbol.com/the-symbolism-of-number-12/
A little clarification. Gold has a CAGR of 9.09%/year for the last long gold cycle when it was floating starting from 1999-2000 when it was $252 and reaching the 2015 low of $1050 If you start from the 1971 low of $35 to the 2015 low of $1050, the result is a CAGR of 8.08%/year Now you can calculate an average price for gold depending on the final period. Of course it will not be a straight line, but it can be above or below this line at a calculation of 9.09% per year. If you choose 8.08, it comes out less than the figures shown below. 2015-$1,050 -2030-$3,885$ -
2035-$5,990$. Don't expect your state/country to raise your salary with inflation because we will end up with hyperinflation. Homes will fall due to lack of credit or increased mortgage, credit card or car interest rates because the cost of auto or home repairs, food, household utilities, rent,insurance and probably some taxes will increase. When you have $3,300 in your account if you don't lose your job,your first concern will be monthly expenses and then buying gold. So I quote a fellow forum member, gold will be above the median line or below it but it will return to the median line. It depends on where you buy it. And don't forget to send me a beer for information.🤓😏
NO1, did you go off your medication? Metal commodities will blaze through this year like Halley's comet streaking through the heavens 75 years early. The Pres will print so many dollars this year that this brontosaurus of a boom will take another year for it to turn toward tepid. Everything takes dollars, and there will be plenty for the whole world to spend. Surprise surprise, people will buy precious metals with these fake dollars, and I would bet my firstborn on a whole bunch of metal being gobbled up.
The world will not be able to resist the basketful of big, beautiful Trump dollars. So, we have at least a couple of years before this silver streak. With all of these cheap and oh so plentiful greenbacks falling from the Federal Reserve Heavens, the world will have another marvelous fake money boom to enjoy until the energy is spent.
If silver goes up all year and we are at 200-300, whatever... Well, maybe the prudent thing would be to sell some at that time. Now, NO1, bad Angel will eventually be right, just give him time. But isn't everyone right, and can't everything be right given enough time? The old adage, don't overthink this," is surely gnawing at your brain. SO, DON'T!
The simple answer for bad angel is that he is a simple malcontent. He missed this 200% silver run, and he cannot stand it. It will soon be 300% run, and he is so furious that he wants to break something. It is not too late for this fallen angel to walk into the light and join the silver crowd.
And I'm on the fence if you're right or not. What you're describing is definitely one scenario I'm holding in my head. Will it work this time though? I mean, it worked in '01, it worked in '08, kinda worked in '20... so why not now?
The difference is those were all responses to actual crashes. This time we're printing *before* something breaks. Or maybe I'm just overthinking it. Either way, gold and silver and a whole bunch of commodities are calling the bluff.
As for angel - nah, I don't think he missed the run and is bitter. I genuinely think he believes his thesis. I'm not trying to convince him either way. Just trying to understand his logic and, yeah, have some fun with it in the process.
You struggled to write a long article with too many scenarios when the explanation is simple. The Plaza Accord of 1985 was translated today into the Mar a Lagos Agreement of 2024.For example USA has a GDP of $100, Canada 100 CAD, the EU 100€ and debts of 120% of GDP and can no longer borrow due to over-indebtedness and interest rates. Their markets are already full of cars, cheap clothes, consumer goods. All these things lead to economic stagnation both in Western Europe and in Asia or the entire world because there is no more room for growth. Now comes the trigger, the 4 indebted entities USA, EU Canada Japan print money until they clean their balance sheet by paying off the old debt, the GDP doubles and the debt goes to 0. Asian countries bought gold up to $2400 throwing American bonds to the wind dollar market and ease the US debt that does not pay interest to Asian countries,but to JP Morgan who in turn deposits it back to the Fed. This money does not reach the market, otherwise there would be Weimar inflation. In the stagflation of the 80s (after the Plaza agreement) gold jumped from $ 250 to $ 500 and returned to around $ 250 in the 1990s when the US $ was devalued and the FED started printing again leading to the dot.com bubble.
Meanwhile, China, India and the other BRICS countries are not devaluing their own currencies, only Western currencies are devaluing. China will help Canada and the USA, and India Europe. Brazil Russia will fill in where needed. Xi was recently in Canada and signed a trade agreement, he will do the same with the USA soon. The EU signed the Mercousour treaty with Latin America and with India (see the ceremony in India) What will happen next? The American stock market is emptying and entering gold but it is not falling yet because it is supported by algorithms and the Plug Protection Team but it will. Part of the money is now fleeing into gold for fear of devaluation but now retail is leading the gold rush, not Central Banks and that is why the price is rising. Houses, apartments, clothes, energy, etc. they will increase in nominal value. After the US pays off its debt and expands its balance sheet, gold will rise to 10k maybe but return to an equilibrium level where it can be bought by banks and the population as I said previously 3k +/- but they will lose if they stay in gold bought at 3k and for 6 years gold does not produce anything, it will be even worse for those with gold bought at 4-5k. The big winners will be those with bonds aka Buffet who are waiting for blood to enter the stock markets, probably by 2028-2030. For more information you can ask Gemini about Plaza Agreement 1985 and implications.
However, economists like Roubini, Krugman and others who predicted the collapse of the world's states under the burden of debt in 2008 are now silent because they understand the mechanism.😏
Ok, lots of things to unpack Angel. I also couldn't really follow very well because are you talking hypothetical or not. I couldn't really distinguish. But I feel your theory has more holes than Swiss cheese 😏:
1. Central Banks stopped buying at $2,400: they are still buying at $5,000. GS estimates around 60 tonnes/month. So around 700 tonnes a year. Down from 1,000 tonnes after Russia's asset confiscation. But not stopping yet. Poland added 12, Brazil 11, China 5. That's diversification from a weaponized dollar. Plus the little fact that they don't care about the price, they care only about counterparty risk. They won't stop nor flip any time soon. So you have a constant bid in the market for -at least- gold.
2. retail: western retail is barely started. ETF inflows in '25 only started picking up after years of outflows. Chinese retail? sure. Indian? absolutely! But your friendly American neighbour? The pension funds? Schwabbers? Not even close. Hint: if you see gold commercials during NFL games, when you hear those talks at the BBQ: that's retail. only the earliest of the earliest adopters are in. The east has been at it for years.
3. stock market emptying into gold: US markets are about $70T gold above ground is around 7B oz, but only around 1.5B oz is available (rest is CB, jewelry and stuff) - so if that money ALL moves into gold, you'll get around $51,000 gold price (probably higher because people will not want to sell and need higher clearing prices if an event like that happens). So I don't get how you would reach 3k gold whilst simultaneous emptying the stock markets?
4. west is devaluing, but BRICS are not?? I don't know if you're talking hypothetical or not, but what I'm seeing is that EVERY country in the world is in a race to the bottom for their fiat currencies (there is a reason why the commodity cycle kicked off - as exemplified by gold & silver parabolic rises).
5. core argument: you're still thinking about normal market dynamics - but you're forgetting all the added premiums I detailed in the last article. They're hugely suppressed (because CBs/.gov doesn't want to show the effects of their money printing). But it's like a beach ball held deep underwater, the reversion to the mean won't be gentle. I can predict it'll float on the water, but how high will it go first to release the pent-up energy? No1 can tell you that. So we'll likely see 10k, 15k or maybe even 100k. But what will the value be in nowadays dollars? My best guess somewhere around 6-10k. For silver around 200 (GSR of 30:1). The overshoot... No1 knows.
6. Buffett: bonds will have their time. But right now the rate is below (true) inflation. It's above the .gov CPI rate, but I think you can agree this is "faulty". For me to move into bonds, it would need a MUCH higher price.
Look, I get it. The Plaza Accord comparison is seductive. Historic currency realignments, debt monetization, eventual normalization. But you're applying 1985 playbook to a 2026 game with completely different rules.
In 1985, central banks weren't buying tonnes of gold annually. In 1985, Russia's reserves hadn't just been frozen. In 1985, China wasn't launching alternative payment systems. In 1985, the dollar's reserve status wasn't questioned. In 1985, we didn't have $35 trillion in US debt.
Gold is the measuring stick revealing the debasement.
I don't see your 3k gold. The math doesn't support it. The flows don't support it. The historic precedents don't support it. And most importantly, the current buyer behavior at these levels doesn't support it.
I'm not arguing with anyone, I'm trying to make arguments that the world won't collapse, gold won't reach 10k and stay there as some who already have a few troy ounces and already dream of becoming billionaires want. The cost of living will increase and gold will decrease through financial repression. In the 90s, many central banks sold gold. Half of the world's gold demand is in jewelry, how do you imagine that central banks will buy gold endlessly to support its price of $10k, for example, but silver at $100-200? If my future perspective is not to the readers' liking, they can overlook my scenario and expose theirs. I don't even bother responding to their insults. Don't worry, be happy.😏🤫
I think gold & silver will overshoot, that is true. But the clearing price will be MUCH higher than your 3k gold. We will get to a time where I'll be shaking my head and say "this is crazy". We're so far from that. Maybe at a GSR of 1:1 or so... You never know where bubbles take you and burst.
I'm still trying to understand your point. And if other readers are insulting you, that's on them. I just try to understand how you can arrive at those ridiculous prices when none of the data supports it. Or maybe I'm just too narrow-minded to understand the broader implications, that's always possible yes.
Anyway, I had fun coming up with LOADS of reasons why your thesis MIGHT work 😉. So I hope you had at least a laugh - a chuckle maybe? 😁
I don't think he was talking about you, on the other article there were a few (one or two) not so nice comments. But we're all adults here (I guess), so we'll get over a jab here or there 😉
Everyone is free to choose their strategy. I have offered my vision, good or bad, I do not claim that it is the best or most accurate, but I have not seen any other plausible and explainable scenario from an economic and historical point of view other than criticism without arguments and explanations. And if there is a world war (which I do not see, apart from declarative frictions) be convinced that the next confrontation will be with bows, arrows and spears,🥸
Amen on the spears ! Let's pray it doesn't come to that.
Although Chinese astrology says this year is the year of "Fire", and a LOT of people will die according to some things I've been reading. We'll know if they're right or not come December?
In mundane astrology which applies to nation states, the following is (slowly) happening now. Rather than giving my read out on this aspect, I asked Perplexity.ai so as to remove my prejudice and offer a more objective view. I can't offer any better interpretation than what is answered here. YMMV.
Amazing research, creative writing & follow-through; Ever consider of writing a novel, or twenty, perhaps an encyclopedia?
I hope these "What If?", "Maybe?" deep thinking adventures don't overtake your consciousness on a regular basis; I remember back when I still had photographic memory coupled with a 145 IQ, that went into overdrive when my testosterone levels launched vertical.
It was a waking nightmare where I questioned everything, including reality itself, leaving me with crippling analysis paralysis, until I started studying advanced math/physics, where I was able to then redirect my invasive daydreaming sessions into solving *real* reality complex problem solving ~ Exorcism and/or Mental Institutions were definitely a potential destinations prior to that.
At a certain point while perusing this masterpiece I became worried you might get sued by the "What If?" copyright holders, but then you shifted your gears to "Maybe?"...
I think you could *still register a script under that mark ("Maybe?") & save Marvel/DC from the poisonous script writers/producers that decided to insert "The Message" & destroy their trillion dollar empire.
Sam Lee just had a giggle...
"...the financial system is gone because the banking AI tried to divide by zero, and nobody trusts anyone because deepfakes are indistinguishable from reality."
Probably a real concern, given how willy-nilly humanity is throwing billion$ at bringing AI to fruition, because the lack of oversight, long-term considerations & control might produce a *real* monster the way things are going.
"We’ve entered a weird post-legal state where property rights are whatever you can physically defend and maybe civilization was a mistake."
It's starting to look like that already, even without "Quantum Computing"; The advent of cargo & criminal stone age CULTures showing up enmasse on welfare rolls & *massive* billion dollar fraud/theft schemes seems to portend we've already entered into a "weird post-legal state", where might-makes-right has become the final destination for Western Civilization.
"The Completely Absurd But Technically Possible"
Now we're talking...
"Or antimatter if you’re feeling adventurous."
Add a Dr. Evil or two to that statement & we're talking about a fun time for the entire family!
"Consciousness upload makes physical wealth irrelevant..."
What if I told you that "Consciousness" is a multiple dimensional *real* reality, that unless you're God that "tech" is unobtainium?
Anyways, many thanks! for the divergence from the dark reality of 2026, which I started to envision 3 decades ago, but hoped would never arrive...
I've had to take a break from "The Stream", so I started watching "Person Of Interest" this week as an alt. to the constant inanity spewing forth from my communication devices.
Prediction: Betcha quite a few people's hands will actually weaken after reading this deep dive, but no matter because the Ag/Au *BOOM* doesn't need retail to continue inflating, never did.
"Charts? Where we're going, we don't need Chartists!"
Hilarious, ridiculously entertaining and more. True talent.
It means holding “the baby” (physical) would not be so smart when compared to imaginary where you could put a stop loss and run for the hills.
They are betting the Ranch that AI will deliver (one spring and he was free). If it doesn’t and the wheels fall off…oh my word. It will make 2000 look like a Chimps tea party.
You have given us, your readers, many ideas for fiction plots; sci-fi and horror authors might run with your ideas, TV and movie script writers may glom onto these scenarios with glee, but I'm voting for the aliens 👽. The truth is out there somewhere.
Exquisite journey through the windmills in/of your mind.
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Any of your scenarios theoretically could manifest, yet I'd place every one at a probability of less than 1/10th of a percent.
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I'm an electrical engineer in power construction for my entire career and will offer my guidance on copper and silver: They won't be appreciably displaced in our lifetimes. Their properties have been stable because of where they are in the periodic table. They have become more immersed within our technologies, decade by decade for hundreds of years, because they are essentially perfect for their use cases. Same for gold used in technologies. Now, Platinum and Palladium probably have many new use cases and importance across the next few decades.
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Finally and more importantly, we didn't have XRF or other fancy tools in the past to prove the purity of gold and it has always been perceived as genuine money.
""I'd place every one at a probability of less than 1/10th of a percent"" -> That was basically the purpose of the article 😉
I do think that nano-structures MIGHT replace silver for coating and general conductivity though, but we're not there.
Who’s to say an inexpensive and abundantly available new aluminum alloy won’t replace silver and copper as an electrical conductor?
Jim can probably attest to the accuracy of this page: https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/conductors-d_1381.html
Silver 63×106
Copper 59.6×106
Copper - annealed 58.0×106
Gold 45.2×106
Aluminum 37.7×106
So aluminum won't replace silver any time soon. Closest is copper, which probably will be used in solar panels as the price of silver is getting too high. Little less conductivity, but a HUGE drop in price.
Silver is, also, the best metal for thermal conductivity @ 429W/m > K (surprised that I never see that factoid mentioned).
Copper is close @ 385-401W/m > K conductivity, which believe it or not in specialized, high-performance applications rules Cu out when it counts (Ag is also more stable).
Buy once, cry once 😭
FWIW, Terry apparently was theorizing about the possibility of some type of *new* aluminum alloy breakthrough (exotic metallurgical config), which from what I know about Al would probably involve a replicator-esque device beyond current science (that I'm aware of).
Alchemy indeed!
If anyone would be on that path it would be the Chinese & they're buying Ag as fast as they can find it, prices be damned 📈
Note: I was trying to be playfully pertinent, not disrespectful, there's plenty of that on The Stream & I'm too old school to engage in schoolyard mean spirited banter, which is why I'm read-only with Xtwitter et al. (no *active* social media accounts).
I'll be one of the first to see it if developed, however, while widely used in normal forms, aluminum has many disadvantages used in electrical power circuits. In the trades, we consider aluminum inferior with only price as a reason it is used.
As an EMET engineer (retired), I'll say it 😉
Not in your/our lifetime sonny.
I’ll say it….you’re a very disrespectful person.
Poet is very direct, not disrespectful (at least not that I saw till now)
Gold is up $150, setting a new ATH this evening.
Gold's price continues to trend upwards.
Its price has yet to peak before it corrects.
Anyone can call a future low at $3,000 or whatever.
What matters is now. The trend is up.
Gold is at $5,280.
It will NEVER see $3,000 again.
Printer will go overtime Brrrr, Brrrr.
There Is No Alternative (TINA).
That's not really true. It pays off to think ahead: where will it be 1 year from now? Because if I see weakness coming up (or a complete disconnect from reality like CRWV), I can act upon it. So if I see gold 3k (I don't), I would take money gradually out of the market, or ride the bubble with very tight stops. But if I see gold grinding higher, I would allocate more to that.
Perhaps gold and silver will become transactional money again in the future, considering the current disastrous fiat currency experiment.
As long stated: I think we will keep using fiat money, credit cards etc INSIDE our respective countries. And trade balances will be settled by physically moving real commodities (be it gold, silver, goat cheese or something else).
The overlords plan to connect us to CBDCs.
Gold as currency is a desirable alternative to CBDCs.
Time will tell.
https://no01.substack.com/p/cbdcs-the-currency-nobody-asked-for
The over looked problem with digital everything is energy. There isn't enough and there is unlikely to be. Even if they come up with "free" energy, the problem of moving it through the system still comes up against the "raw materials to expand the infrastructure" doesn't go away. AI isn't for making wealth anyhow, it's for control. The hype for it is to gain enough coin to build out the infrastructure to watch over and control everything. The idea is already running into an energy supply problem. Catherine Austin Fitts mentions it in a conversation with Andy Schectman here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZQRMJUzH4k
"AI isn't for making wealth anyhow, it's for control. The hype for it is to gain enough coin to build out the infrastructure to watch over and control everything."
"Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism by Yanis Varoufakis argues that traditional capitalism has been replaced by a new system where big tech companies act as modern-day feudal lords, extracting "rent" from users through their platforms, much like lords extracted labor from serfs. In this "technofeudal" system, the pillars of capitalism (markets and profit) have been supplanted by platforms and rents, with users unknowingly providing free labor (clicks, data) that enriches tech giants, creating a new form of digital serfdom."
I'd argue that the birth of which actually began with the advent of mainframe computers in markets & government, where statistical controls became an automated reality (late 60s, early 70s).
Every time I hear Elon pontificate about UBI that's all I hear...
If "humanity" doesn't assert the Natural Rights of God's creation, the Right to Life, Health, Liberty & The Pursuit of Possessions/Property (John Locke 1690/James Otis 1765), The Technofeudal overlords will become trillionaire$ & end up owning everything.
It's amazing that the system created & owned by We The People was given away for free, without any control (ARPANET > Internet) will in the end up turning us all into slaves.
“The insanity of the collective egoic mind, amplified by science and technology, is rapidly taking our species to the brink of disaster. Evolve or die: that is our only choice now.” — Eckhart Tolle 2004
I recommend that you study Jim Rikards' Curriculum Vitae and watch his YouTube channel to get an idea of the future of this crisis. Among other things, he worked for the CIA or other American government institutions and knows well how the system works.
https://youtu.be/d-j6nPjCvRg?si=ujmN_biBg99wmZkJ
https://youtu.be/XGoGhVic-wQ?si=geJAYRqgmbJJxqAD
Brilliant article. Funny, easy to read and a lot of real facts. Impressive.
By the way your scenario of AI economic success and US economic growth/tax revenue is not nearly as far fetched as most people think. 1. The US government is ALL IN - US military dependence 2. huge amounts of PRIVATE financing availabe 3. the companies involved have huge cash inflows AND proven track record. So maybe 50/50
I didn't really mean to present any real facts. Mission failed I guess 😥😉😂
Like another commenter said: probability of maybe 1/10th of a percent.
As for AI economic growth saving the day... I doubt it'll happen like you think. My take: [https://no01.substack.com/p/the-trillion-dollar-oops]. First the rot needs to be cleaned out. And with "rot" I mean the whole bureaucratic mess in companies, monopolies and politics. ALL of it.
Oh, and don't forget we don't even have close to the energy we need to make it happen.
But China does.
My take: we already lost. We're in catch-up mode. Just look at the AI teams - mostly Asian faces. That tells you something.
I think AI is a transformational technology and WILL be either used to enslave humanity OR empower humanity. Not sure which will win, but I hope for the latter.
The US being "ALL IN" doesn't mean we're positioned to win. It just means we're desperate.
You are correct about energy and catch up mode!! But I think the Trump admin recognizes this and is trying (may be too late) to resolve. You are correct about Desperate. its now or never. So I stick with 50/50 and invest accordingly especially now with preclous metal profts. China has its big advantages BUT the US has Musk, Cook, Huang, Karp and their teams who I think are the BEST in the world. So lets check back in 2 -3years from now.
I'm hoping with you! Only time will tell what the world will be.
Model collapse Alexis: https://austrianpeter.substack.com/p/the-financial-jigsaw-part-2-62-2026?r=hhrlz&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
Merrill Lynch’s legendary technical analyst Bob Farrell always reminded investors that ALL markets eventually “revert to the mean”. Comparing current gold and silver prices to their long-term moving averages must concern those aware of the consequences of mean reversion.
For XAU today, out of 15 moving average indicators in TradingView, 14 of them say buy. But your point is sound. There are bound to be corrections.
And reversions to the mean agreed. But what is "the mean" when those PMs (indicators of both money printing and geopolitical instability) are suppressed for decades in favor of the fiat dollar? That "mean" is mean-ingless.
We can all take a gander at what their final prices will be.
The problem with that reversion to the mean will be that it exposes the whole frickin' house of cards that was built upon fake money (and yes, true money in my opinion is gold & silver). More and more people won't know what's real anymore, will wake up. Or maybe I give too much credit to "people"? Because corona showed me 1 thing: only maybe 5 to 10% of people have their eyes open (and only 1% of that amount was vocal enough). So I'll guess it'll be similar for this awakening.
Gold will grind higher in my opinion, not really spike unless the dollar is further weaponized in an abrupt way. Silver is too cheap to recycle. So it's taken out of circulation completely when appliances are thrown away. So the GSR needs to be a lot lower. 1:1 is a stretch, but maybe something closer to historical averages? (https://no01.substack.com/p/the-gold-to-silver-ratio)
i believe your point about PM means is valid. In a FREE MARKET, one where price rises and falls based primarily on fundamentals and not manipulation, then reversions to the mean will happen naturally. But all bets are off when the price, in this case, has been suppressed for a very long time. Doing that synthetically suppresses the mean, just as it suppresses the price. When the suppression ends, the price will rise without reference to the moving average.
Reversions to the mean never become apparent until they happen. One trigger to get the ball rolling may be the pullback in the dollar (DXY, $USD, $DXY). While it’s very bullish for the precious metals, looking beyond that, it may result in a cascade of foreign U.S. Treasury holders dumping while they can still salvage some value. That selling drives the price down and yields up and Treasuries become attractive for new buyers. Higher bond yields may just be the pin that punctures precious metals’ bubble. Bull markets always look invincible until they don’t. Then they revert to the mean.
I don't think of this as a classic bull market. (Yeah, this time it's different...) Precious metals aren't rising due to their own value drivers, or catching a general wave of market euphoria. They're rising because:
1) decades of price suppression against PM's 'appear' to have ended, while;
2) the overall economic/geopolitical picture creates safe haven demand.
Precious metals are behaving 'abnormally' by the usual market standards. But when one examines the market conditions today, PM's are behaving very rationally.
Again, that doesn't mean there won't be corrections and reversals along the way to finding the sustainable and justifiables price for precious metals.
In the end they are all potatoes…
I think we're seeing different reversions here. Higher yields might make Treasuries look attractive on paper, but that assumes the underlying value proposition holds. And I'm not convinced it does.
Volcker could raise rates to 20% because the debt-to-GDP ratio was under 40%. Today it's north of 120%. Every percentage point increase in rates adds hundreds of billions to annual interest payments. The government is already spending more on interest than defense. So we're trapped - high bond rates to defend the currency and you break the fiscal situation. Keep rates suppressed and you destroy the currency anyway.
The reversion happening isn't PMs reverting back to paper assets. It's paper assets reverting to what they actually represent - which is a lot less purchasing power than markets have been pricing in. When that gap closes, gold doesn't necessarily fall. Everything else just catches up to reality.
So for now, I'm riding this bull. When I step out of it, I'll report on it as well 😉. But I'll always keep my stack.
Higher bond yields won’t result from government actions. In fact, there seems to be much discussion about the FED engaging in yield curve control if necessary to support bond prices. Unfortunately for the FED the bond market is much bigger than they can handle and when the bond liquidation avalanche gets going, they’ll only be able to stare at it helplessly. Equity markets and commodities and PMs will all get caught up in the avalanche.
So Angel’s $3000 might end up being the mean…maybe even lower. All possibilities have to be considered. If you want to make money in the markets you MUST lose your ego. Approach the markets with lots of humility.
💯. I've been (nearly) broke a few times. So yep, preaching to the choir!
Yellowstone erupting, aliens arriving with otherworldly tech and Antarctica revealing an ancient culture with special technology are bearing down on the issue of relevance of monetary instruments when everything else in an economy becomes different.
All of this may have happened already, too.
Don't you go all logical on me now mate! 😁
I haven't read the comments. This was my first impression.
No1 might have a future in Sci-Fi or a field I like - alternative history.
Alt histroy has a term "Alien space bats" (ASBs). I have another one I use "Martians w/ray guns show up." From google: ASBs is a term in alternate history fiction referring to implausible, deus ex machina scenarios where, without rational explanation, the laws of physics change, time travel occurs, or aliens interfere, often making impossible points of divergence (POD). It is used to mock, or describe, narratives that require such "alien space bats" to make the plot work.
You had PODs from the reasonable to some ASBs!! 😲
In all seriousness, that was a tour de force, and it makes one pause from all the recent giddiness we in the PM brotherhood have been feeling lately.
I live to serve 😉
OTOH, maybe all electronics will be fried by an EMT war of some kind, and silver will be needed for photography again!
I think we might have bigger issues than taking pictures (of our food) at that point? Maybe like actually having food? 😉 /s
You're hilarious! But you're right. We have to force ourselves to be as objective as we can be, including acknowledging that we are not God -- we do not know everything, in fact, we don't really know for sure much of anything we think we know. It's a good exercise to think these things through. It certainly makes one not put all the proverbial eggs in the same basket. Even God teaches us that through the Proverbs of Solomon.
Just saw this article -- to your point ... hmmmmm ... what if they start using Copper / Base metals instead of Silver in solar panels? Well, it appears you may have stirred something up in the ether --
https://www.saurenergy.com/solar-energy-news/longi-ditches-silver-for-base-metals-as-solar-industry-faces-price-crunch-10975413
As far as viruses and "pandemics" are concerned, you really need to go find, read, digest Mike Stone and his ViroLIEgy newsletter. Others are Sam Bailey and Jamie Andrews, for a good start (there are lots of others) ... all on substack. I'm a retired MD -- Immunology/Rheum/IntMedicine
Copper is slightly worse in terms of electric conductivity (and thanks to Poet I know thermal is slightly worse as well). So that'd be a decent replacement yes.
Fabulously entertaining NO 1 thank you for a lovely trip into the future. "why their mathematics uses base-12 instead of base-10 and whether that means anything." It does, which is why we have 360 degs in a circle, among other interesting numbers. 12 is the only number divisible by more numbers resulting in a whole number. Probably why UK used £s, shillings, and pence.
Love the Antarctica speculation and not far from the mark. 1531 map: https://illumeably.net/posts/10-ancient-maps-that-show-antarctica-without-ice/
Antarctica map: Romans were growing wine grapes in Britain during the Climate Optimum. Then we had the Medieval Warm Period. Then the Little Ice Age hit. So maybe this knowledge predates Antarctica freezing over and somehow got preserved through all those cycles?
Would be a fun wrinkle in the climate narrative - it's always been changing. We just weren't around with spreadsheets and carbon credits for most of it.
Yes, I guess so. History is not always what we believe eh.
I never took a course in Number theory although I wanted to. There's only so much math you can study as the body of knowledge is enoumous. OTOH, I've always been interrsted in prime & perfect numbers. The large primes still used in modern cryptography.
I did a bit of quick research on 12.
It's an Abundant/Sublime Number: It is the smallest (so there are more) abundant number (sum of divisors is greater than the number) and one of only two known "sublime numbers," meaning it has a perfect number of divisors, and the sum of those divisors is also a perfect number. The latter is FANTASTIC !
Sublime numbers are rare integers where both the total count of divisors and the sum of all divisors are perfect numbers. ONLY TWO are currently known: 12, divisors (1,2,3,4,6,12); count is 6 [perfect], sum is 28 [perfect]). And a massive 76-digit number. They represent a unique intersection of number theory, specifically involving Mersenne primes. AMAZING !
Thank you John - yes 12 is indeed magical: "The number 12 is more than just a figure you see every day. "It carries a rich tapestry of meanings that connect you to cycles, balance, and harmony in both the natural world and human culture." A quick review: https://deepsymbol.com/the-symbolism-of-number-12/
A little clarification. Gold has a CAGR of 9.09%/year for the last long gold cycle when it was floating starting from 1999-2000 when it was $252 and reaching the 2015 low of $1050 If you start from the 1971 low of $35 to the 2015 low of $1050, the result is a CAGR of 8.08%/year Now you can calculate an average price for gold depending on the final period. Of course it will not be a straight line, but it can be above or below this line at a calculation of 9.09% per year. If you choose 8.08, it comes out less than the figures shown below. 2015-$1,050 -2030-$3,885$ -
2035-$5,990$. Don't expect your state/country to raise your salary with inflation because we will end up with hyperinflation. Homes will fall due to lack of credit or increased mortgage, credit card or car interest rates because the cost of auto or home repairs, food, household utilities, rent,insurance and probably some taxes will increase. When you have $3,300 in your account if you don't lose your job,your first concern will be monthly expenses and then buying gold. So I quote a fellow forum member, gold will be above the median line or below it but it will return to the median line. It depends on where you buy it. And don't forget to send me a beer for information.🤓😏
🍺
NO1, did you go off your medication? Metal commodities will blaze through this year like Halley's comet streaking through the heavens 75 years early. The Pres will print so many dollars this year that this brontosaurus of a boom will take another year for it to turn toward tepid. Everything takes dollars, and there will be plenty for the whole world to spend. Surprise surprise, people will buy precious metals with these fake dollars, and I would bet my firstborn on a whole bunch of metal being gobbled up.
The world will not be able to resist the basketful of big, beautiful Trump dollars. So, we have at least a couple of years before this silver streak. With all of these cheap and oh so plentiful greenbacks falling from the Federal Reserve Heavens, the world will have another marvelous fake money boom to enjoy until the energy is spent.
If silver goes up all year and we are at 200-300, whatever... Well, maybe the prudent thing would be to sell some at that time. Now, NO1, bad Angel will eventually be right, just give him time. But isn't everyone right, and can't everything be right given enough time? The old adage, don't overthink this," is surely gnawing at your brain. SO, DON'T!
The simple answer for bad angel is that he is a simple malcontent. He missed this 200% silver run, and he cannot stand it. It will soon be 300% run, and he is so furious that he wants to break something. It is not too late for this fallen angel to walk into the light and join the silver crowd.
Walk into the light angel.
I only do self-medication 😉
And I'm on the fence if you're right or not. What you're describing is definitely one scenario I'm holding in my head. Will it work this time though? I mean, it worked in '01, it worked in '08, kinda worked in '20... so why not now?
The difference is those were all responses to actual crashes. This time we're printing *before* something breaks. Or maybe I'm just overthinking it. Either way, gold and silver and a whole bunch of commodities are calling the bluff.
As for angel - nah, I don't think he missed the run and is bitter. I genuinely think he believes his thesis. I'm not trying to convince him either way. Just trying to understand his logic and, yeah, have some fun with it in the process.
You struggled to write a long article with too many scenarios when the explanation is simple. The Plaza Accord of 1985 was translated today into the Mar a Lagos Agreement of 2024.For example USA has a GDP of $100, Canada 100 CAD, the EU 100€ and debts of 120% of GDP and can no longer borrow due to over-indebtedness and interest rates. Their markets are already full of cars, cheap clothes, consumer goods. All these things lead to economic stagnation both in Western Europe and in Asia or the entire world because there is no more room for growth. Now comes the trigger, the 4 indebted entities USA, EU Canada Japan print money until they clean their balance sheet by paying off the old debt, the GDP doubles and the debt goes to 0. Asian countries bought gold up to $2400 throwing American bonds to the wind dollar market and ease the US debt that does not pay interest to Asian countries,but to JP Morgan who in turn deposits it back to the Fed. This money does not reach the market, otherwise there would be Weimar inflation. In the stagflation of the 80s (after the Plaza agreement) gold jumped from $ 250 to $ 500 and returned to around $ 250 in the 1990s when the US $ was devalued and the FED started printing again leading to the dot.com bubble.
Meanwhile, China, India and the other BRICS countries are not devaluing their own currencies, only Western currencies are devaluing. China will help Canada and the USA, and India Europe. Brazil Russia will fill in where needed. Xi was recently in Canada and signed a trade agreement, he will do the same with the USA soon. The EU signed the Mercousour treaty with Latin America and with India (see the ceremony in India) What will happen next? The American stock market is emptying and entering gold but it is not falling yet because it is supported by algorithms and the Plug Protection Team but it will. Part of the money is now fleeing into gold for fear of devaluation but now retail is leading the gold rush, not Central Banks and that is why the price is rising. Houses, apartments, clothes, energy, etc. they will increase in nominal value. After the US pays off its debt and expands its balance sheet, gold will rise to 10k maybe but return to an equilibrium level where it can be bought by banks and the population as I said previously 3k +/- but they will lose if they stay in gold bought at 3k and for 6 years gold does not produce anything, it will be even worse for those with gold bought at 4-5k. The big winners will be those with bonds aka Buffet who are waiting for blood to enter the stock markets, probably by 2028-2030. For more information you can ask Gemini about Plaza Agreement 1985 and implications.
However, economists like Roubini, Krugman and others who predicted the collapse of the world's states under the burden of debt in 2008 are now silent because they understand the mechanism.😏
Ok, lots of things to unpack Angel. I also couldn't really follow very well because are you talking hypothetical or not. I couldn't really distinguish. But I feel your theory has more holes than Swiss cheese 😏:
1. Central Banks stopped buying at $2,400: they are still buying at $5,000. GS estimates around 60 tonnes/month. So around 700 tonnes a year. Down from 1,000 tonnes after Russia's asset confiscation. But not stopping yet. Poland added 12, Brazil 11, China 5. That's diversification from a weaponized dollar. Plus the little fact that they don't care about the price, they care only about counterparty risk. They won't stop nor flip any time soon. So you have a constant bid in the market for -at least- gold.
2. retail: western retail is barely started. ETF inflows in '25 only started picking up after years of outflows. Chinese retail? sure. Indian? absolutely! But your friendly American neighbour? The pension funds? Schwabbers? Not even close. Hint: if you see gold commercials during NFL games, when you hear those talks at the BBQ: that's retail. only the earliest of the earliest adopters are in. The east has been at it for years.
3. stock market emptying into gold: US markets are about $70T gold above ground is around 7B oz, but only around 1.5B oz is available (rest is CB, jewelry and stuff) - so if that money ALL moves into gold, you'll get around $51,000 gold price (probably higher because people will not want to sell and need higher clearing prices if an event like that happens). So I don't get how you would reach 3k gold whilst simultaneous emptying the stock markets?
4. west is devaluing, but BRICS are not?? I don't know if you're talking hypothetical or not, but what I'm seeing is that EVERY country in the world is in a race to the bottom for their fiat currencies (there is a reason why the commodity cycle kicked off - as exemplified by gold & silver parabolic rises).
5. core argument: you're still thinking about normal market dynamics - but you're forgetting all the added premiums I detailed in the last article. They're hugely suppressed (because CBs/.gov doesn't want to show the effects of their money printing). But it's like a beach ball held deep underwater, the reversion to the mean won't be gentle. I can predict it'll float on the water, but how high will it go first to release the pent-up energy? No1 can tell you that. So we'll likely see 10k, 15k or maybe even 100k. But what will the value be in nowadays dollars? My best guess somewhere around 6-10k. For silver around 200 (GSR of 30:1). The overshoot... No1 knows.
6. Buffett: bonds will have their time. But right now the rate is below (true) inflation. It's above the .gov CPI rate, but I think you can agree this is "faulty". For me to move into bonds, it would need a MUCH higher price.
Look, I get it. The Plaza Accord comparison is seductive. Historic currency realignments, debt monetization, eventual normalization. But you're applying 1985 playbook to a 2026 game with completely different rules.
In 1985, central banks weren't buying tonnes of gold annually. In 1985, Russia's reserves hadn't just been frozen. In 1985, China wasn't launching alternative payment systems. In 1985, the dollar's reserve status wasn't questioned. In 1985, we didn't have $35 trillion in US debt.
Gold is the measuring stick revealing the debasement.
I don't see your 3k gold. The math doesn't support it. The flows don't support it. The historic precedents don't support it. And most importantly, the current buyer behavior at these levels doesn't support it.
sloppiest argument ever. IMO youre going to lose your bet badly.
I'm not arguing with anyone, I'm trying to make arguments that the world won't collapse, gold won't reach 10k and stay there as some who already have a few troy ounces and already dream of becoming billionaires want. The cost of living will increase and gold will decrease through financial repression. In the 90s, many central banks sold gold. Half of the world's gold demand is in jewelry, how do you imagine that central banks will buy gold endlessly to support its price of $10k, for example, but silver at $100-200? If my future perspective is not to the readers' liking, they can overlook my scenario and expose theirs. I don't even bother responding to their insults. Don't worry, be happy.😏🤫
I'm not arguing with that. I doubt the world will collapse. I think we will have a major (kinetic) war at some point in the next few years (https://no01.substack.com/p/the-darkest-hours-are-before-the-f1e) which will clear the debts and reset the system.
I think gold & silver will overshoot, that is true. But the clearing price will be MUCH higher than your 3k gold. We will get to a time where I'll be shaking my head and say "this is crazy". We're so far from that. Maybe at a GSR of 1:1 or so... You never know where bubbles take you and burst.
I'm still trying to understand your point. And if other readers are insulting you, that's on them. I just try to understand how you can arrive at those ridiculous prices when none of the data supports it. Or maybe I'm just too narrow-minded to understand the broader implications, that's always possible yes.
Anyway, I had fun coming up with LOADS of reasons why your thesis MIGHT work 😉. So I hope you had at least a laugh - a chuckle maybe? 😁
insulting? That was not insulting...
I don't think he was talking about you, on the other article there were a few (one or two) not so nice comments. But we're all adults here (I guess), so we'll get over a jab here or there 😉
Everyone is free to choose their strategy. I have offered my vision, good or bad, I do not claim that it is the best or most accurate, but I have not seen any other plausible and explainable scenario from an economic and historical point of view other than criticism without arguments and explanations. And if there is a world war (which I do not see, apart from declarative frictions) be convinced that the next confrontation will be with bows, arrows and spears,🥸
Amen on the spears ! Let's pray it doesn't come to that.
Although Chinese astrology says this year is the year of "Fire", and a LOT of people will die according to some things I've been reading. We'll know if they're right or not come December?
In mundane astrology which applies to nation states, the following is (slowly) happening now. Rather than giving my read out on this aspect, I asked Perplexity.ai so as to remove my prejudice and offer a more objective view. I can't offer any better interpretation than what is answered here. YMMV.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/is-the-astrology-chart-of-the-brDubC7TSeq3yQmvpNJ5mQ#0
Wow!
Amazing research, creative writing & follow-through; Ever consider of writing a novel, or twenty, perhaps an encyclopedia?
I hope these "What If?", "Maybe?" deep thinking adventures don't overtake your consciousness on a regular basis; I remember back when I still had photographic memory coupled with a 145 IQ, that went into overdrive when my testosterone levels launched vertical.
It was a waking nightmare where I questioned everything, including reality itself, leaving me with crippling analysis paralysis, until I started studying advanced math/physics, where I was able to then redirect my invasive daydreaming sessions into solving *real* reality complex problem solving ~ Exorcism and/or Mental Institutions were definitely a potential destinations prior to that.
At a certain point while perusing this masterpiece I became worried you might get sued by the "What If?" copyright holders, but then you shifted your gears to "Maybe?"...
I think you could *still register a script under that mark ("Maybe?") & save Marvel/DC from the poisonous script writers/producers that decided to insert "The Message" & destroy their trillion dollar empire.
Sam Lee just had a giggle...
"...the financial system is gone because the banking AI tried to divide by zero, and nobody trusts anyone because deepfakes are indistinguishable from reality."
Probably a real concern, given how willy-nilly humanity is throwing billion$ at bringing AI to fruition, because the lack of oversight, long-term considerations & control might produce a *real* monster the way things are going.
"We’ve entered a weird post-legal state where property rights are whatever you can physically defend and maybe civilization was a mistake."
It's starting to look like that already, even without "Quantum Computing"; The advent of cargo & criminal stone age CULTures showing up enmasse on welfare rolls & *massive* billion dollar fraud/theft schemes seems to portend we've already entered into a "weird post-legal state", where might-makes-right has become the final destination for Western Civilization.
"The Completely Absurd But Technically Possible"
Now we're talking...
"Or antimatter if you’re feeling adventurous."
Add a Dr. Evil or two to that statement & we're talking about a fun time for the entire family!
"Consciousness upload makes physical wealth irrelevant..."
What if I told you that "Consciousness" is a multiple dimensional *real* reality, that unless you're God that "tech" is unobtainium?
Anyways, many thanks! for the divergence from the dark reality of 2026, which I started to envision 3 decades ago, but hoped would never arrive...
I've had to take a break from "The Stream", so I started watching "Person Of Interest" this week as an alt. to the constant inanity spewing forth from my communication devices.
Prediction: Betcha quite a few people's hands will actually weaken after reading this deep dive, but no matter because the Ag/Au *BOOM* doesn't need retail to continue inflating, never did.
"Charts? Where we're going, we don't need Chartists!"
Thanks! I am happy you liked it 😉
So, after that deep dive which did you choose?
1> Blue Pill
2> Red Pill
Whatever you do don't choose the Black Pill, that'll turn you into part of Nick Fuentes' Groyper Army 👽
Can't I choose a slightly dark-red pill? 😉
I hear there's a Purple Pill, but it's a placebo 💊