Weekend thoughts
No penny for my thoughts
This is a weekly digest of unassociated pictures (graphs mostly) I saw during the week. Not much context is given.
For daily digests: https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/archive
Silver's five most extreme deviations below its 200 DMA in 30 years: $37–$52 targets
China, the largest identifiable gold buyer in May: 48 tonnes
PBOC monthly net gold buying steps back up:
Silver market balance: +132 Moz surplus flips to −762 Moz deficit
Gold's secular bull: every advance interrupted, then new highs
Gold miners' AISC margin per ounce, Q1 2026: Thor Explorations $3,884 leads
Silver $55.80: 1973 and 2008 correction overlays
Shanghai silver $61.80 vs paper ~$55: 11.4% premium
Real assets vs financial assets, 1925–2025: new cycle ahead?
HUI gold miner index: one more retest of 550 before the bottom
Mining now just 1% of global equity market cap, lowest since 1900
Gold/M2: breakout and retest since 1981
Gold ETF flows by region vs price since 2022:
Silver ETF flows: 100-day change in SLV assets at −53%
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries near record, long-term share climbing
Wealth of the top 0.00001% at ~12% of national income, quadrupled since 2008
Yields sinking: 10Y 4.52%, 30Y 5.05%, 2Y 4.13%
Consumer sentiment jumps to 54.4, five-month high on cheaper gas 🤦♂️
Nearly a fifth of active student-loan balances now severely delinquent
Margin debt +40% over 12 months — a level only seen at market tops
India vs China: change in GDP per capita, 2008–2025
Americans not in the labor force: 105.8M all-time high, +832K in June
France 30-year yield 4.71%, highest since the GFC
USD share of global FX reserves at the lowest this century
S&P 500 priced in M2 money supply, now above the dot-com peak
Bank of Japan raises its policy rate, first time in 17 years
US M2 money supply at a new all-time high: $23.05 trillion
JGB yields going parabolic since 2019
Diesel crack spread $86, now above WTI crude — up 4x since the war
US crude in the SPR falls to 317MM, lowest since April 1983
3-2-1 WTI refining margin at a record $59/barrel
China crude imports −41% YoY in June, lowest since 2016
Russia refinery runs: 2025 vs 2026, mbd
EU Russian LNG imports hit a record ahead of the 2027 ban
US crude inventories (commercial + SPR) at a 40-year low
US total crude oil exports hit a record high in April
Front-month oil +272% vs +28% spot over five years of backwardation
Global diesel loadings tracking a 9-year low for July
China's fossil-fuel consumption at an all-time high, in exajoules
Apple $4.871T overtakes Nvidia $4.837T as world's most valuable
Retail cashing in tech: SanDisk, Apple, Tesla top the net-sold list
US stocks at 2nd most expensive CAPE since the late 1800s
Argentine peso at an all-time low, −99.8% since 2009
LatAm FX beating the dollar: Colombian peso +17% over 5 years
Chinese AI models now out-use US models on OpenRouter
EV share of new car sales 2025: Norway 97%, China 53%, US 10%
Bitcoin found support at $58k
The only gold coin worth less than its metal value:
Interesting chart on EV adoption by country. Norway is tops because of anti-ICE laws, zero emissions, and EV subsidies. Nepal is a strange one, apparently they have a lot of hydro power and are pushing EV infrastructure. The oddest one is Japan, you would think that an island nation that has had small cars for decades would be big on EV sales, but their percentage is one of the lowest. Bottom line to me is that if the government pushes or mandates EVs, people will buy them.
"LatAm FX beating the dollar: Colombian peso +17% over 5 years"
Somehow this chart left out the Argentine peso: https://www.xe.com/en-ca/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=5Y