Weekend thoughts
No penny for my thoughts
This is a weekly digest of unassociated pictures (graphs mostly) I saw during the week. Not much context is given.
For daily digests: https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/archive
Gold spot vs total known ETF holdings (97.344m oz):
PBOC monthly gold purchases: 19.91t in July
China steps up gold buying right into the slump:
Global gold ETF accumulation: +960t over 104 weeks
Spot-gold ETF weekly fund flows:
New gold discoveries worldwide: zero majors two years running 🙄
US official gold reserves by location:
Comex registered silver vs open interest: 485M oz deficit
COMEX registered silver, lease rates and September open interest:
CME warehouse stocks, eligible vs registered:
Global silver production less demand - deficit since 1950:
AI and data-centre silver offtake: 41.5 Moz in 2026F 🚀
Silver price vs SHFE inventory - China stocking up:
MCX gold and silver vault stock, days left:
GDX top-25 miner fundamentals, aggregate earnings +73% 🤑
Newmont, Barrick and Agnico free cash flow 🤑🤑:
Gold vs inverted US real rates:
Vanguard 60/40 vs gold this century: 176.94% vs 1,442.28%
Dow Jones priced in silver, quarterly log scale:
Bitcoin priced in gold: -63% since December 2024
Top 50 miners by market cap - all of them combined are worth less than Microsoft:
Cost of servicing US debt: $1.38 trillion, 4.2% of GDP
Spending $7.32T vs tax revenue $5.37T. Looks sustainable:
July receipts $334bn against $766bn of outlays:
Interest ($1.25T) now tops defense ($1.20T):
Federal debt held by the public, % of GDP - past the WWII peak:
T-bills at ~21% of marketable debt, near 2020 highs:
US 30-year auction stops at 5.216%, highest since 2001:
US long-end yields back to 2007 peaks 🚀:
France 30-year yield 4.855%, first time since the GFC:
Japan 2-year yield 1.66% 🚀, highest in 31 years
Japan's top-four life insurers: record JGB paper losses
90+ day delinquencies by loan type, credit cards 12.9%:
US saving rate 2.6% and falling toward a record low:
Labor force participation down to 61.4%:
Core PCE from lowest to highest inflation reading:
US financial conditions, easiest since 1997. Nothing to see here:
Strait of Hormuz traffic vs the 130-ship prewar average:
SPR below 300 million barrels, first time since 1983:
Diesel crack at a record 98.169 🚀:
Distillates in $/boe: ULSD MED CIF 184.3, +124.5%
Big Oil free cash flow: record $70 billion in Q2 🤑
US marketed natural gas production, record 2026:
IEA revisions to global oil demand - all positive post-2022:
Saudi Bab el-Mandeb shuttles collapsed to single digits:
US crude inventory draws: 17 straight weeks
US gas storage demand cover near historic lows:
Exchange copper stocks: COMEX record 666kt vs LME+SHFE 274kt
"New gold discoveries worldwide: zero majors two years running". Yeah, which is why Trump (of course) is promoting the education of more mining engineers -- just in case some geologist or prospector in the far, far future finally discovers another new 2 million ounce gold deposit to give those mining engineers in waiting something to do. By the way, this graph doesn't apply to the more eastern exploration and mining industry. See https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reprise-stark-comparison-larry-turner-jrdsc/ for explanation. For even more detail, then see https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-mining-shoots-itself-foot-comparison-ii-larry-turner-ndkxc/
Looking at the (lack of) gold discoveries I'm wondering if the larger miners will resort to M&A to replenish their reserves. Eg. NEM trying to buy Barrick's share of NGM, Barrick trying to buy their neighbor IAUX etc.