Weekend thoughts
No penny for my thoughts
This is a weekly digest of unassociated pictures (graphs mostly) I saw during the week. Not much context is given.
For daily digests: https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/archive
Gold seasonality in midterm election years:
Gold & silver futures seasonality:
Gold miners: price vs aggregate cash flow 🤑:
China SGE/SHFE precious metals, daily:
Gold monthly, holding the cup & handle target:
Silver futures — one chart to rule them all:
Gold: first real test at $4,240–$4,250:
Platinum trying to break its channel:
Central banks' gold as % of reserves (ex-US):
Central bank & private gold allocations at 30–40yr highs:
Quarterly central bank gold net purchases, still elevated:
Gold sentiment this washed out → higher a month later, 8 for 8:
Gold bull-market corrections, compressed in time:
China vs US M2 (+$37.3T vs +$12.5T):
Chinese silver net exports:
Silver weekly, back inside the cloud:
Global M3 vs total gold value:
GDX/SOXX ratio screaming a bottom:
COMEX silver: delivery requests vs actual withdrawals:
Gold price-to-production-cost ratio:
US construction hiring rate, lowest since 2000:
Money-market funds: $8.3T, all-time high:
Leveraged ETF assets tripled since 2022 (~$200B):
US hedge-fund gross leverage, nearly doubled since 2022:
Fed funds futures pricing 1.2 hikes by year-end:
Hyperscaler free cash flow heading to zero:
Global stock market cap: record $166 trillion:
Retail dip-buying at historic extremes:
US inflation expectations creeping higher:
Federal debt vs Fed ownership of Treasuries:
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries (% of total):
US Treasury debt maturing within one year:
US vs UK long-term bond yields, 250 years:
Semiconductors: 20% of the S&P 500, record high:
3:2:1 crude oil crack spreads at all-time highs:
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, lowest in ~40 years:
Brent crude, daily:
WTI: 7 straight closes below the 200-day:
US wheat acres: fewest in 149 years:
Namibia's Orange Basin oil blocks:
Micron closes below its 20-day, first time in ~3 months:
Hang Seng trailing the S&P 500 by 20 points YTD:
S&P 500 monthly returns — no red July since 2014:
Chipmakers +104% while the Mag 7 slipped:
China home prices, lowest in 20 years:
Something - Wants - to - SNAP!
;-o
Interesting, thanks. I'm curious; how long do you think it will be before the next effective U.S. default? I'm guessing around 2030/2035 time frame. Another halving of the dollar value officially relative to gold?