Weekend thoughts
No penny for my thoughts
This is a weekly digest of unassociated pictures (graphs mostly) I saw during the week. Not much context is given.
For daily digests: https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/archive
Central bank, ETF and net gold flows, tonnes, since 2010:
Gold overtakes Treasuries as top reserve asset, hits $5T:
Asia's gold ETF demand undiminished while the West sells:
China net gold imports kept rising in April:
Dow/gold ratio breaking down through the line:
Gold net long managed money on COMEX, near historic lows:
Fort Knox 147M oz vs NY Fed's 33.4M oz:
China GDP denominated in ounces of gold, 1960-2025:
US GDP denominated in ounces of gold, 1913-2025:
QE money printing vs UST gold revaluation at $42.22:
Silk Road gold demand: 50,154 tonnes, China 24,011:
Shanghai silver at a +16.77% premium over Western futures:
India's silver imports plunge 82% after the duty hike:
Gold & silver miners since 1968, back at the line:
Silver $63.37, $61 must hold or retest the 1980-2011 breakout:
GLD upside calls rarely this cheap vs puts:
Wheaton's 77.1% net margin out-earns Apple and Microsoft:
Newmont's AISC margin per gold ounce hits $3,191:
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries near a record $9.35T:
Global rate hikes and cuts now evenly split, 26 each:
2-year real yield surges from 0.40% to 1.98%:
Excess liquidity negative and falling, first time since 2021:
Real margin debt up 550% since 1997, record $1.42tn:
Sovereign debt sales hit a record $504B in H1:
US unemployment-minus-CPI gap near zero — here be dragons:
US net interest expense heading past 20% of tax revenue:
CCC-over-BB junk spread tops 6%, biggest in 14 months:
US-minus-Swiss 30-year yield gap, widening since 2008 QE:
10-2 yield curve crashes to 0.283%:
Fed's June dot plot, well below what markets expect:
401(k) hardship withdrawals hit a record 6%, tripled in 4 years:
US M2 money supply at a record $22.8 trillion:
Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings collapsing vs Brent:
Cushing crude stocks drop to 20mn barrels, lowest since 2014:
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drained to a 42-year low:
Brent futures curve: today vs one week and one month ago:
Oil shorts within a million barrels of an all-time low:
Jet fuel days of cover: Germany, UK, France run dry by July:
Solar 12.8% passes coal 12.2% in US generation, a first:
Venezuela crude exports tripled to 1,300 kbd in six months:
AI now 39% of the S&P 500, near history's biggest bubbles:
Top 20 global stocks now 60x bigger than the average:
Metals vs diamonds: real scarcity rose, manufactured scarcity broke:
Tesla market cap at 305x adjusted free cash flow:
SpaceX free float just 4.25% vs mega-caps' 85%+:
That last meme.
Snort
Need China to take cheap space launches seriously and get the world outside of NATO to go with them.