Weekend thoughts

No penny for my thoughts

This is a weekly digest of unassociated pictures (graphs mostly) I saw during the week. Not much context is given.

For daily digests: https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/archive

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Gold parabolic trend holding for now:

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PBOC monthly gold reserve changes:

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Weimar German stocks in marks vs USD, 1920–1923:

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Swiss gold exports to Saudi Arabia 🚀:

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Silver futures curve: paper market perpetually underestimates reality

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Silver market structure: COMEX registered, SOFR, lease rates, Shanghai basis:

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Chinese gold & silver imports/exports, April 2026:

https://x.com/pmbug/status/2057511955091357796

COMEX May gold deliveries: 858 notices Tuesday — 5,554 total:

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Platinum ETF (PPLT) borrow fee spike — precursor to a 2025-style run?

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Silver long-term charts + lots of ratios:

https://x.com/potassium_phd/status/2055749127385075770

GDX vs. SPX monthly chart: rotation forming:

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Mining sector profit margins vs S&P 500 sectors (and nobody wants to own them):

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G7 10-year yields: highest since 2004:

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Japan 10Y yield above 2.80%: all-time high 🚀:

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2056788474385076470

US 30Y Treasury yield highest since pre-GFC:

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Japan 40Y yield above 4.4%: all-time high:

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10Y yield at each Fed chair swearing-in since Burns — Warsh inherits 4.562%:

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UMich consumer sentiment: 44.8, new all-time low (worse than Nov. 2008):

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S&P 500 avg single-stock put/call skew: 0.04, 4th-lowest in 20 years:

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Fed rate hike odds in 2026: 37%:

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US CPI on track for >5% by November midterms:

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Manufacturing PMI input prices: 80, highest since mid-2022 — stagflation accelerating:

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Chinese Treasury holdings: lowest since 2008:

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Turkey's US Treasury holdings: dumped in first month of Iran War:

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Lots of businesses, less employees so:

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PCE inflation decomposition: software contribution vs historical avg, March 2026:

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China credit impulse (% of GDP):

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Germany 2026 monthly federal spending: defence, social, military fund:

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30Y mortgage (6.75%) + US 30Y note yield (5.184%):

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2056795248806809959

US household equity holdings: +$4T YTD, +$31T since 2023: This is going to end well…

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Berkshire cash pile: $397B all-time high:

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France 10Y yield now higher than Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain:

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Treasury futures block sales:

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Gallup: 75% of Americans say economic conditions getting worse:

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US crude inventory drawdown: -17.8M bbls/week, largest in history:

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US SPR inventory: 374.2M bbls — record weekly drain of 9.9M bbls:

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Strait of Hormuz: 83 days restricted, 31% chance open by May 31:

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Supply shortfalls, demand destruction & implied oil prices (to $350):

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Gulf oil exports: Hormuz vs bypass routes, May 2026:

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China independent refiner margins: most negative in history:

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USD/Brent correlation: 0.55, highest since Bloomberg Dollar index launched in 2005:

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Sulfur prices going parabolic 🚀:

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Stock market bubble concentration history: railroads → utilities → Japan → AI (60%):

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Tech fund inflows: +$9B last week, 3rd-largest weekly inflow on record:

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Leveraged long vs short ETF ratio: 3.3x, highest since July 2024:

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Nuclear reactors under construction: China 38, US 0:

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South Korea exports: +52.6% YoY (first 20 days of May), strongest on record:

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Korea semiconductor export prices: +148% YoY; DRAMs +223% YoY:

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