An introduction to the "Fourth Turning"
This is an introduction to “The Fourth Turning”, a generational theory from Strauss-Howe. It’s a short summary aiming to give you an overview (or refresher) to what the “Fourth Turning” actually encompasses.
If you already know it, feel free to skip to the article directly here:
The Fourth Turning Theory: A Primer
William Strauss and Neil Howe's generational theory, first articulated in their 1991 book "Generations" and refined in 1997's "The Fourth Turning," posits that history moves in cycles called "saecula" (plural of saeculum, Latin for "a long human life"). Each saeculum lasts approximately 80-100 years—the span of a long human lifetime—and contains four turnings of roughly 20-25 years each. These turnings are like seasons: Spring (First Turning/High), Summer (Second Turning/Awakening), Autumn (Third Turning/Unraveling), and Winter (Fourth Turning/Crisis).
The engine driving these cycles is generational change. Strauss and Howe identify four generational archetypes that appear in the same sequence throughout history. Each archetype is shaped by its location in history—particularly whether it comes of age during a Crisis or Awakening—and in turn shapes the mood and events of its era. The Prophet archetype (Idealist) is born during a High and comes of age during an Awakening. These are the indulged children who grow into narcissistic crusaders, moralistic and values-obsessed. Think Boomers, born 1943-1960. The Nomad archetype (Reactive) is born during an Awakening and comes of age during an Unraveling. Under-protected as children during the chaos of spiritual upheaval, they become pragmatic, cynical survivors. Generation X, born 1961-1981, fits this pattern perfectly.
The Hero archetype (Civic) is born during an Unraveling and comes of age during a Crisis. Increasingly protected as children while institutions fail around them, they're called upon to sacrifice for the collective good during the Crisis. Millennials, born 1982-2004, are today's Hero generation. Finally, the Artist archetype (Adaptive) is born during a Crisis and comes of age during a High. Overprotected as children during dangerous times, they become conformist, process-oriented adults. The Silent Generation (born 1925-1942) were the last Artists; Generation Z and Alpha are the emerging ones.
Each turning has distinct characteristics. The First Turning (High) features strong institutions, social conformity, and collective confidence. Society has just survived a crisis and wants to build and cohere. Individual expression is suppressed in favor of social cooperation. The Second Turning (Awakening) sees the young Prophet generation rebel against the conformity their Hero parents created. It's an era of spiritual upheaval, institutional attack, and values revolution. The Third Turning (Unraveling) is marked by strengthening individualism and weakening institutions. The values regime from the Awakening is now established, but civic trust erodes. Everyone pursues their own interests as social atomization accelerates. The Fourth Turning (Crisis) brings secular upheaval—usually war or revolution—that destroys the old order and creates a new one. It requires maximum mobilization and ends with exhausted resolution.
The "Gray Champion" is a crucial Fourth Turning concept—an elder Prophet who emerges during crisis to lead society through transformation. In the Revolutionary crisis, it was Samuel Adams or Benjamin Franklin. In the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln. In World War II, Franklin Roosevelt. The Gray Champion provides the moral clarity and decisive leadership necessary during existential threats. They're usually controversial figures who embody their generation's values-obsessed, my-way-or-the-highway approach.
Strauss and Howe identified America's previous Fourth Turnings with remarkable precision. The Revolutionary Crisis (1773-1794) began with the Boston Tea Party and Parliament's harsh response, climaxed with the war itself, and resolved with the Constitution's ratification. The Civil War Crisis (1860-1868) started with Lincoln's election and Southern secession, climaxed at Gettysburg and Atlanta, and resolved with Reconstruction's end. The Great Depression/World War II Crisis (1929-1946) began with the stock market crash, climaxed with D-Day and atomic bombs, and resolved with the UN's establishment and Bretton Woods.
According to their 1997 prediction, the next Fourth Turning would begin around 2005, triggered by some catalyst event. They suggested various possibilities but emphasized it would be a point of no return—after which America would be fundamentally different. The climax would come roughly three-quarters through the roughly 20-year crisis, with resolution by the late 2020s or early 2030s. Critically, they warned that Fourth Turnings don't always end well. Nations can lose wars, split apart, or fall under tyranny. The outcome depends on leadership, wisdom, and collective will during the climactic moment.
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