As I write this in mid-July 2025, something extraordinary is happening in the silver market—something that traders haven't seen since the nickel meltdown of 2022. The numbers are staggering: SLV shares available to borrow have collapsed from 10 million to just 10,000 in two weeks. That's a 99.9% evaporation. When Wall Street can't find shares to short, you know the game is changing.
But here's something that isn’t mention often: Shanghai is already squeezing.
While London spot silver sits at $38.16 as of July 18, Shanghai's been trading at premiums that would make your head spin. Just this week, we've seen the London futures spike with lease rates hitting 6%—compared to near-zero normal levels. On July 14, LBMA spot briefly touched $39.075 while Shanghai's silver (T+D) contract hit 9,233 yuan/kg, a fresh high since May 2011.
Shanghai's futures curve has flipped into backwardation—trader speak for "we need silver NOW, not later." The last time we saw this kind of desperation, silver shot from $25 to $37 in months. But this time feels different. This time, the entire industrial complex of the world's factory floor is screaming for metal.
Think about it: every solar panel rolling off Chinese production lines needs silver. Every EV battery pack. Every 5G antenna. The Silver Institute just confirmed industrial demand hit 680.5 million ounces in 2024—a record that's about to be shattered as China's green revolution accelerates. When Shanghai traders are willing to pay premiums just to secure physical delivery, they're telling you something London and New York haven't figured out yet.
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Let me paint you three pictures:
March 2022: Nickel goes supernova. Tsingshan Holdings, thinking they're clever, shorts the market. Russia invades Ukraine. Nickel shoots from $29,770 to $101,365 per metric ton in 48 hours. The London Metal Exchange literally breaks—they halt trading and cancel $3.9 billion in trades. Banks lose billions. Tsingshan's owner becomes a legend for all the wrong reasons.
January 2021: Reddit discovers GameStop. Apes unite. Melvin Capital loses 53% in a month. The stock goes from $17 to $483. Robinhood shuts down buying. Congress holds hearings. The little guys almost break Wall Street.
October 2008: Porsche quietly accumulates Volkswagen shares while shorts pile in, thinking the automaker is toast. Suddenly, Porsche reveals they control 74% of VW. The scramble begins. VW briefly becomes the world's most valuable company as shorts pay ANY price to cover. The stock rockets 400% in two days. Hedge funds implode.
Now look at silver. We've got lease rates spiking to 7.5%—highest since 2008. Paper contracts outnumber physical silver 350-to-1. COMEX registered inventory sits at just 34 million ounces. JPMorgan, despite paying $920 million for market manipulation, still holds 600+ million ounces while maintaining massive short positions.
Here's my prediction, and I'm putting my reputation on the line: Silver hits $75 by December 2025.
Why December? Because that's when the reality of 2025's supply deficit—projected at 150+ million ounces—collides with year-end options expiration and peak industrial buying season. Remember those 47,000 SLV call options? That's just the appetizer. The real fireworks start when industrial users panic ahead of Chinese New Year production schedules.
The catalyst could be anything: a mine strike in Mexico, a solar panel shortage in China, or simply Shanghai premiums exploding to $10+ as they realize the West has been playing paper games while the East needs actual metal. When arbitrageurs can't close the Shanghai-London gap because there's no physical silver to ship, the Western paper market breaks.
We're already at $38 in mid-July, up 31% year-to-date. We'll see $50 by September—especially as the silver-to-gold ratio at 92:1 screams for mean reversion. By October, with production ramping up and Shanghai premiums hitting double digits, we'll breach $60.
Then comes the endgame. Industrial users, realizing they can't source physical silver at any paper price, will bid directly for mining output. Coin shops will run dry. The US Mint will suspend Silver Eagle production. Again. And somewhere in that chaos, as shorts scramble to cover positions that represent 350 ounces of paper for every real ounce, we'll see $75.
Maybe even $100 if the exchanges don't pull a nickel-style intervention first.
Won't JPMorgan just dump their 600 million ounces and crush the rally?
Here's the thing about manipulation: it only works when there's enough physical metal to back the paper games. Even JPMorgan can't print silver. And with the CFTC watching after that $920 million fine, their traders are walking on eggshells. The latest spoofing prosecution in April 2024 sent another trader to jail. The game has changed.
Plus, why would JPMorgan crash their own asset? They're not stupid. They've been accumulating since 2011 because they know what's coming. When the squeeze hits, they'll ride it up, selling into strength like the pros they are.
Watch Shanghai like a hawk. When premiums hit $5, we're in the danger zone. At $10, it's too late—the squeeze is on. The arbitrage gap becomes a chasm that swallows shorts whole. We're already seeing lease rates at 6% versus near-zero normal levels—that's as close as we can get to near-panic pricing for a commodity.
The paper market can pretend everything's fine while London fixes at $38, but Shanghai doesn't lie. When the world's largest manufacturing economy pays massive premiums for immediate delivery, they're signaling shortage. Real, physical, can't-print-our-way-out shortage.
Bob Coleman's tweet about zero shares to short? That's Wall Street finally catching up to what Shanghai traders have known for months. The difference is, when this squeeze hits, it won't be a meme stock or a single commodity on one exchange. It'll be a global precious metal with 5,000 years of history, vital to humanity's green future, breaking free from decades of paper suppression.
I'm not telling you to mortgage your house and buy silver (though I know someone who did at $16 and sold at $37 for a tidy 131% gain). I'm telling you the setup is historic. The fundamentals are screaming. The technicals are breaking. And history shows us exactly how this movie ends.
The nickel squeeze gave us 250% in days. Volkswagen: 400%. GameStop: 2,400%. Silver, with its unique combination of monetary history, industrial necessity, and paper market distortion, could deliver something even more spectacular.
$75 by December 2025. Screenshot this.
When the Shanghai premium explodes and the last SLV share gets borrowed, when industrial users panic and Reddit rallies the troops, when 150 million ounces of deficit reality meets 350-to-1 paper fantasy—that's when silver finally breaks free.
The only question is: will you be ready when Shanghai meets Wall Street in the squeeze of the decade?