Generally every 10 to 20 years or so you can swap them for the other metal.
Don't forget stocks either! I'm not married to my stack. To me this is the base-line. Like Cygnus said: generational wealth. Easy to pass on to your kids and grandkids.
But see that you educate your kids, and that they educate their kids in the value of "money". Otherwise your wealth won't survive more than 2 generations...
If you're new: I would say, buy Ag. Because it's still relatively elevated. Buy some gold / silver producers for a bit of torque. DO NOT BUY Nasdaq/S&P (for now). Ratio is like bottoming like crazy (see my weekend thoughts for more graphs on that). PMs is the next cycle in my opinion.
Don't mortgage the house either. I'm not that crazy either to suggest that 😋.
I will tell everyone when I do. Although if you're living in Europe, might be good to sell in the next 5 to 10 years (see map in one of my weekend thoughts posts about demographics). Your mileage might vary.
Should do one of these one of these days: what I think you need to look for in demographics to "profit" (ie: time it) well to get out.
Is it known whether the big banks are still short on silver (attempting to control the price)? Are they still losing tens of millions for every dollar that silver spot appreciates?
The $54 Maginot Line seems to have folded, and I wonder what exposure "systemic institutions" retain from the old regime, if they're trying to regroup at another price level, or if the silver market is truly in jail-break right now.
From the frantic movements that I see happening in silver, option markets, futures: they're in all-out desperation mode right now. It's easy to spot: price is going up and down like crazy.
I will see if I can track down a CoT analysis which is generally used to calculate these short positions. Robert Gottlieb also comes to mind as an authority in this area.
As the CFTC stopped publishing COT reports from October 1 to November 12 due to a government funding lapse. The most recent data I can find is from late October/early November 2025 - meaning we're flying blind.
As of late October, commercial shorts were at extreme levels:
Net short position: ~200-400 million ounces
Every $1 rise costs them ~$200 million
The Big 8 (largest commercial shorts) held massive positions
Silver smashed through multiple resistance levels and hit $61+ (all-time highs).
But without current COT data, we can't see exactly where commercials stand now. But the price action suggests either:
- Massive covering happened (explaining the rally)
- They're still short and hemorrhaging money
- Some covered while others doubled down at new levels
My guess: the latter. To me the new line looks to be $60 (based on option markets)
I'm long so I'm not talking my book but typically large call buying and elevated call vol is more of a signal of euphoria and speculative chasing ... so I'm not so sure I agree with the conclusion that vol moves precede spot. I also think the JPM share px move yesterday was a function of comments on costs and consumer credit conditions at a pre-planned competitor banking conference event. The stronger argument imo is one you've made elsewhere regarding physical tightness and corporates (and governments) responding to the price and uncertainty by stockpiling.
call buying as euphoria vs. positioning: You're right to flag this. Large call buying can absolutely signal euphoria and tops. But I'd push back on one key distinction - retail isn't here yet. The typical euphoria signal is when retail piles into far out-of-the-money calls at cycle tops. What's different here is the silver/gold divergence while institutional positioning dominates and retail awareness remains relatively muted. That said, institutions can be wrong too. Fair point.
vol preceding spot: I should've been clearer that this is a signal, not a guarantee. The more accurate statement: extreme positioning in options reflects someone's strong conviction, which may or may not prove correct.
JPM: I noted the timing was "notable", and of course I don't know how likely each attribution is. Probably you're right. I just think it's a strange coincidence when factoring in all other points.
Call skew is one data point in a larger picture. Physical tightness another. JPM's drop yet another. None of them conclusive on their own. But that's how I work through these things - I collect data points that seem disconnected and look for patterns. The anchor here is physical: LBMA/COMEX running low on deliverable silver. Everything else either supports that thesis or contradicts it.
Might I be wrong about some of these connections? Sure. I'll be the first to admit I'm No1.
But when options markets price in violent moves, delivery requests spike, and major banks holding huge short positions have their worst day in months... I'm not just seeing random noise. I'm seeing pressure building around the same structural problem.
Then again, the difference between a conspiracy theorist and an analyst is just whether you're right or not.
Also check SLV…there has never been a top of any importance without a massive weekly spike in sell volume. Guess what? Last week we had the opposite. Massive weekly buy volume spike.
Thanks a ton No1 for these insights. I'm new to this channel so still trying to digest all of your great writings --love them all.
Is it possible that Big 8 banks, specially JPM is holding large stockpile of Silver so that it can sell it institutional buyers and retails at very high margin?
JPM has been stockpiling Silver from over a decade and keeping prices artificially low to buy low and now sell high as prices climb up. And retail investors are the bag holders.
@No1, Just curious, if we've data on how much Silver JPM and/or Big8 has in stock and your thoughts on this view point.
Thanks! Good question. JPM's exact holdings aren't public, but the Big 8 short positions are reported in the COT data (commitments of traders). The stockpiling theory has legs - they were fined for spoofing silver markets, and their physical accumulation while shorting paper silver was pretty blatant for years.
Whether they're now positioned to dump on retail at higher prices... that's the game, isn't it? Watch the COT reports and COMEX warehouse stocks for clues. The data's there, just needs interpretation.
Thanks! Although 1 thing Grok gets wrong somehow: silver is at 60, not 40… Lease rates at one time noted 200% (overnight), or 40% (monthly iirc), not 15%.
Also, iirc Rickards book still: it was Russia that introduced the gold-backing of the ruble. NOT China. Iirc China was just sitting in a corner, let everyone fight. And be declared the winner because it didn’t exhaust itself.
But to give so much credence that the west learned something from these war games?? Nah. I would rather bet on the stupidity of our politicians to do the opposite of what should be done. (As the saying goes: you can be sure that a politician will do the right thing after he exhausted all wrong ways of doing it)
But I’m nitpicking (sure sign of an idiot according to another reader 😜). The overall gist of your share is quite accurate, maybe a little too harsh on the fallacies of the FreeGold framework.
We all have our blind spots. It’s important not to be stuck in them. That’s all.
Damn! Grok can chat a lot!! I would need a chatbot to summarize this 😯.
just had grok analyze the text of Daniela Cambone's recent interview with Mitch Vexler and weave this into our timeline quest.
Accelerates household debt defaults, compressing the 2026-2028 bankruptcy wave into 2026, overlapping Larsson's diesel-hoarding and AI semi-collapse.
Intensifies CRE-sector implosion, adding $2T in immediate liquidity drains that cascade into bank runs by mid-2026, shortening Tverberg's economic atrophy timeline.
Undermines local fiscal buffers, forcing municipal austerity earlier than Berman's 2027 shale peak, exacerbating food insecurity in Clugston's depletion arc.
Amplifies zombie loan-exposures, hastening a credit-freeze that starves industrial inputs like silver-mining diesel by Q4 2026.
Feeds sovereign debt-spirals, aligning property-tax fraud revelations with BRICS Unit rollout, advancing gold reset to Q1 2027.
What most aren't aware of is - the manipulation of the paper sliver market was by China for a few decades using JPM as their co-conspirator. China was sending silver (rarely had to happen) when the inventories in London became too low. This has now changed - China is no longer suppressing the London price. It is essentially stopping silver exports except to a few large "controlled" entities. This is going to starve the physical inventories in early 2026. As the article points out - there are 400 ounces of options for every ounce of physical silver held in London. What possibility could go wrong? Silver - like rare earths - are required for today's technology and China controls it. Payback to the U.S./Trump is going to be a bitch and it is coming! Hold on to your hats because it is happening......
I prefer to hold onto my stacks, but to each their own I guess 🤣?
The question I'm having with your take is: why now? Did China drain all the silver in the world? Pretty close yes, but if they kept playing that game, they could have squeezed everything dry. Have an even bigger reckoning? So why now? What would/could have triggered them to act now?
Generally China plays a very shadowy game. Not brazen.
As someone who is new to trading and only very lightly involved, it's astounding to me how much trading takes place without an asset actually changing hands.
> Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
> I will face my fear.
> I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
> And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
> Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
(not even kidding this time) Just assign a small part of your budget to precious metals. Go to your local pawn shop/coin dealer. I just heard they're basically throwing it away at 3-5% premiums. Gobble it up. Yes, the price can swing wildly, but over the years (decades), those PMs hold their value. Don't think you own them, just buy & forget. And always have the peace of mind that you have an insurance against any geopolitical turbulence.
Beloved, I am sodden, sunken, burdened with silver, in the form of the antique sterling sets Mom and Dad loved to collect. I could measure it in stones. With that and the Craftique mahogany reproductions they favored, I am tip top prepped for tea time in the primal, with plenty of dry fuel for bringing it to the boil.
No, brother, what sets my bowel atremble is the fragility of modern life. I like hot water from taps, window screens, cops; loves me some cops, sardine tins, dry feet. I could go on.
Ignorance was so easy when I was young, and my generation was not in charge. Now I know too well what goons these morons be, my friend, all too well.
Thanks for the highly readable education you dispense here.
There is a buzz everywhere about this. But what I am certain of is physical silver. In Spain physical is sold 40% over spot.
Great article! I started buying Ag when it was $16. I will never sell. It is generational wealth for my grandkids.
Well, when gold/silver ratio hits 15: swap Ag for Au. And when it hit 80 or 100: swap Au for Ag. That way you keep accumulating whilst staying in PMs.
The GSR has been below 15 twice since 1869
Yeah, I think 30 is a near-certainty right now, and 15 a possibility. Especially with the huge discrepancy between price & supply right now.
Generally every 10 to 20 years or so you can swap them for the other metal.
Don't forget stocks either! I'm not married to my stack. To me this is the base-line. Like Cygnus said: generational wealth. Easy to pass on to your kids and grandkids.
But see that you educate your kids, and that they educate their kids in the value of "money". Otherwise your wealth won't survive more than 2 generations...
If you're new: I would say, buy Ag. Because it's still relatively elevated. Buy some gold / silver producers for a bit of torque. DO NOT BUY Nasdaq/S&P (for now). Ratio is like bottoming like crazy (see my weekend thoughts for more graphs on that). PMs is the next cycle in my opinion.
Don't mortgage the house either. I'm not that crazy either to suggest that 😋.
I will tell everyone when I do. Although if you're living in Europe, might be good to sell in the next 5 to 10 years (see map in one of my weekend thoughts posts about demographics). Your mileage might vary.
Should do one of these one of these days: what I think you need to look for in demographics to "profit" (ie: time it) well to get out.
FYI, this might be of interest to you: https://no01.substack.com/p/money-is-time <-- my take on what money actually is.
Is it known whether the big banks are still short on silver (attempting to control the price)? Are they still losing tens of millions for every dollar that silver spot appreciates?
The $54 Maginot Line seems to have folded, and I wonder what exposure "systemic institutions" retain from the old regime, if they're trying to regroup at another price level, or if the silver market is truly in jail-break right now.
From the frantic movements that I see happening in silver, option markets, futures: they're in all-out desperation mode right now. It's easy to spot: price is going up and down like crazy.
I will see if I can track down a CoT analysis which is generally used to calculate these short positions. Robert Gottlieb also comes to mind as an authority in this area.
As the CFTC stopped publishing COT reports from October 1 to November 12 due to a government funding lapse. The most recent data I can find is from late October/early November 2025 - meaning we're flying blind.
As of late October, commercial shorts were at extreme levels:
Net short position: ~200-400 million ounces
Every $1 rise costs them ~$200 million
The Big 8 (largest commercial shorts) held massive positions
Silver smashed through multiple resistance levels and hit $61+ (all-time highs).
But without current COT data, we can't see exactly where commercials stand now. But the price action suggests either:
- Massive covering happened (explaining the rally)
- They're still short and hemorrhaging money
- Some covered while others doubled down at new levels
My guess: the latter. To me the new line looks to be $60 (based on option markets)
I'm long so I'm not talking my book but typically large call buying and elevated call vol is more of a signal of euphoria and speculative chasing ... so I'm not so sure I agree with the conclusion that vol moves precede spot. I also think the JPM share px move yesterday was a function of comments on costs and consumer credit conditions at a pre-planned competitor banking conference event. The stronger argument imo is one you've made elsewhere regarding physical tightness and corporates (and governments) responding to the price and uncertainty by stockpiling.
call buying as euphoria vs. positioning: You're right to flag this. Large call buying can absolutely signal euphoria and tops. But I'd push back on one key distinction - retail isn't here yet. The typical euphoria signal is when retail piles into far out-of-the-money calls at cycle tops. What's different here is the silver/gold divergence while institutional positioning dominates and retail awareness remains relatively muted. That said, institutions can be wrong too. Fair point.
vol preceding spot: I should've been clearer that this is a signal, not a guarantee. The more accurate statement: extreme positioning in options reflects someone's strong conviction, which may or may not prove correct.
JPM: I noted the timing was "notable", and of course I don't know how likely each attribution is. Probably you're right. I just think it's a strange coincidence when factoring in all other points.
Call skew is one data point in a larger picture. Physical tightness another. JPM's drop yet another. None of them conclusive on their own. But that's how I work through these things - I collect data points that seem disconnected and look for patterns. The anchor here is physical: LBMA/COMEX running low on deliverable silver. Everything else either supports that thesis or contradicts it.
Might I be wrong about some of these connections? Sure. I'll be the first to admit I'm No1.
But when options markets price in violent moves, delivery requests spike, and major banks holding huge short positions have their worst day in months... I'm not just seeing random noise. I'm seeing pressure building around the same structural problem.
Then again, the difference between a conspiracy theorist and an analyst is just whether you're right or not.
Also check SLV…there has never been a top of any importance without a massive weekly spike in sell volume. Guess what? Last week we had the opposite. Massive weekly buy volume spike.
Thanks a ton No1 for these insights. I'm new to this channel so still trying to digest all of your great writings --love them all.
Is it possible that Big 8 banks, specially JPM is holding large stockpile of Silver so that it can sell it institutional buyers and retails at very high margin?
JPM has been stockpiling Silver from over a decade and keeping prices artificially low to buy low and now sell high as prices climb up. And retail investors are the bag holders.
@No1, Just curious, if we've data on how much Silver JPM and/or Big8 has in stock and your thoughts on this view point.
Thanks! Good question. JPM's exact holdings aren't public, but the Big 8 short positions are reported in the COT data (commitments of traders). The stockpiling theory has legs - they were fined for spoofing silver markets, and their physical accumulation while shorting paper silver was pretty blatant for years.
Whether they're now positioned to dump on retail at higher prices... that's the game, isn't it? Watch the COT reports and COMEX warehouse stocks for clues. The data's there, just needs interpretation.
Good morning, No1. Thought you might find this conversation with Grok amusing in some way. https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMi1jb3B5_715f2664-8cf7-4c47-8592-3560bc434c51
Thanks! Although 1 thing Grok gets wrong somehow: silver is at 60, not 40… Lease rates at one time noted 200% (overnight), or 40% (monthly iirc), not 15%.
Also, iirc Rickards book still: it was Russia that introduced the gold-backing of the ruble. NOT China. Iirc China was just sitting in a corner, let everyone fight. And be declared the winner because it didn’t exhaust itself.
But to give so much credence that the west learned something from these war games?? Nah. I would rather bet on the stupidity of our politicians to do the opposite of what should be done. (As the saying goes: you can be sure that a politician will do the right thing after he exhausted all wrong ways of doing it)
But I’m nitpicking (sure sign of an idiot according to another reader 😜). The overall gist of your share is quite accurate, maybe a little too harsh on the fallacies of the FreeGold framework.
We all have our blind spots. It’s important not to be stuck in them. That’s all.
Damn! Grok can chat a lot!! I would need a chatbot to summarize this 😯.
just had grok analyze the text of Daniela Cambone's recent interview with Mitch Vexler and weave this into our timeline quest.
Accelerates household debt defaults, compressing the 2026-2028 bankruptcy wave into 2026, overlapping Larsson's diesel-hoarding and AI semi-collapse.
Intensifies CRE-sector implosion, adding $2T in immediate liquidity drains that cascade into bank runs by mid-2026, shortening Tverberg's economic atrophy timeline.
Undermines local fiscal buffers, forcing municipal austerity earlier than Berman's 2027 shale peak, exacerbating food insecurity in Clugston's depletion arc.
Amplifies zombie loan-exposures, hastening a credit-freeze that starves industrial inputs like silver-mining diesel by Q4 2026.
Feeds sovereign debt-spirals, aligning property-tax fraud revelations with BRICS Unit rollout, advancing gold reset to Q1 2027.
Well done.
What most aren't aware of is - the manipulation of the paper sliver market was by China for a few decades using JPM as their co-conspirator. China was sending silver (rarely had to happen) when the inventories in London became too low. This has now changed - China is no longer suppressing the London price. It is essentially stopping silver exports except to a few large "controlled" entities. This is going to starve the physical inventories in early 2026. As the article points out - there are 400 ounces of options for every ounce of physical silver held in London. What possibility could go wrong? Silver - like rare earths - are required for today's technology and China controls it. Payback to the U.S./Trump is going to be a bitch and it is coming! Hold on to your hats because it is happening......
I prefer to hold onto my stacks, but to each their own I guess 🤣?
The question I'm having with your take is: why now? Did China drain all the silver in the world? Pretty close yes, but if they kept playing that game, they could have squeezed everything dry. Have an even bigger reckoning? So why now? What would/could have triggered them to act now?
Generally China plays a very shadowy game. Not brazen.
Great article!!
As someone who is new to trading and only very lightly involved, it's astounding to me how much trading takes place without an asset actually changing hands.
https://open.substack.com/pub/xrpmanchester/p/china-just-pulled-the-silver-plug?r=1o04re&utm_medium=ios
"This matters because institutions don’t chase hype. " Of course they do.
Always figured a smart person could explain options in under a paragraph, but this is the first time I've seen it done.
Thanks for a scary read, first damn thing in the morning.
You have nothing to fear but fear itself.
Repeat after me:
> I must not fear.
> Fear is the mind-killer.
> Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
> I will face my fear.
> I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
> And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
> Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
(not even kidding this time) Just assign a small part of your budget to precious metals. Go to your local pawn shop/coin dealer. I just heard they're basically throwing it away at 3-5% premiums. Gobble it up. Yes, the price can swing wildly, but over the years (decades), those PMs hold their value. Don't think you own them, just buy & forget. And always have the peace of mind that you have an insurance against any geopolitical turbulence.
Beloved, I am sodden, sunken, burdened with silver, in the form of the antique sterling sets Mom and Dad loved to collect. I could measure it in stones. With that and the Craftique mahogany reproductions they favored, I am tip top prepped for tea time in the primal, with plenty of dry fuel for bringing it to the boil.
No, brother, what sets my bowel atremble is the fragility of modern life. I like hot water from taps, window screens, cops; loves me some cops, sardine tins, dry feet. I could go on.
Ignorance was so easy when I was young, and my generation was not in charge. Now I know too well what goons these morons be, my friend, all too well.
Thanks for the highly readable education you dispense here.