You stated "The question isn’t whether innovation will overcome sanctions—it’s how quickly alternatives advance once barriers force their development. Based on current evidence: much faster than the architects of these policies ever imagined."
I take the liberty of filling this in according to my vision:
At the heart of the architects of these policies lies Zbigniew Brzezinski’s vision articulated in his book The Grand Chessboard. American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1997). This vision became a central tenet of America’s neocon movement which spanned both Democratic and Republican administrations. This vision and policy is aimed at maintaining US hegemony. Brzezinski underestimated Africa, Latin-America, the Middle East and especially China. He completely underestimated the rapid rise and future role of China. His belief in US supremacy was paramount. And his conviction was that what is good for the USA is good for peace and well-being of the world. So world hegemony for the "indispensable" USA it is. And no rival superpower must arise that threatens US interests or well-being.
This hubris, as immature and ingrained as a narcissist's, typically leads to poor adaptability and shortsightedness. Shortsightedness typically leads to poor analysis and predictions.
How quickly alternative innovations advance once barriers force the development of (sanctioned/autocratic/bigger) nations, as you show with this article and my thanks for it, was not foreseen at all by Zbigniew Brzezinski and the Neocons/ Neolibs/West: The West's strategic blunder.
Most of all, the myth of non-replaceable West technology is fading.Russians, Iranians, etc. all of them are discovering that they can.It is not like before : ,, We do not like/ despise European but they are superior to us". Now it is : we can do it without them.It is more than a economical or technological shift in their mental. It is a major cultural revolution powered by their animosity to West arrogance.
Sanctions are a blessing in disguise, particularly for large, complex, well-developed economies, as you point out. They force the "victims" out of their comfort zone with a kick in the butt.
And now, with U.S. and EU sanction having become a common, vulgar commodity that is generously doled out, the "victims" form networks, and even assist weaker ones that would likely buckle under the weight. Case in point: Venezuela, now supported by Russia and Iran (and China?).
Yep, Western "leaders" are true blackbelt suicide masters.
True. I am surprised that China has now accepted to pause for 1 years the REE/REE products supply ban to the U.S. China could easily afford to keep the tap closed until the U.S. is on its knees and extract best maximum conditions from Uncle Sam.
That's not how they work. Never corner a rat (or a cat). They might attack you out of pure desperation. So always keep an escape valve.
Same principle as in all these cauldrons in Ukraine. Real war resembles financial war in many aspects.
And to create the mining for REE, that takes at least 5 years alone. Then comes production (THE most important facet actually) because "rare" earths are not really rare -- just environmental unfriendly to produce. And after production comes the integration in the supply chain into actual useful stuff like super strong magnets. All in all, that would take 1 or 2 decades. If we start NOW.
So: not going to happen with our short-sighted politicians and markets.
Plus, I'm certain that what they say, and what they do will be quite different. "unexpected delays", "internal use first", "no military nor dual use purposes". The excuses will sound all legit, but the main purpose is: only leave a trickle to go to the west. Enough to not bring online our own production chain. Not too little, not too much.
You stated "The question isn’t whether innovation will overcome sanctions—it’s how quickly alternatives advance once barriers force their development. Based on current evidence: much faster than the architects of these policies ever imagined."
I take the liberty of filling this in according to my vision:
At the heart of the architects of these policies lies Zbigniew Brzezinski’s vision articulated in his book The Grand Chessboard. American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1997). This vision became a central tenet of America’s neocon movement which spanned both Democratic and Republican administrations. This vision and policy is aimed at maintaining US hegemony. Brzezinski underestimated Africa, Latin-America, the Middle East and especially China. He completely underestimated the rapid rise and future role of China. His belief in US supremacy was paramount. And his conviction was that what is good for the USA is good for peace and well-being of the world. So world hegemony for the "indispensable" USA it is. And no rival superpower must arise that threatens US interests or well-being.
This hubris, as immature and ingrained as a narcissist's, typically leads to poor adaptability and shortsightedness. Shortsightedness typically leads to poor analysis and predictions.
How quickly alternative innovations advance once barriers force the development of (sanctioned/autocratic/bigger) nations, as you show with this article and my thanks for it, was not foreseen at all by Zbigniew Brzezinski and the Neocons/ Neolibs/West: The West's strategic blunder.
Humans are resourceful. And adversity cultivates resilience.
—> https://no01.substack.com/p/water-always-finds-a-way
But for once, I’m happy with the shortsightedness of our elites. Woe us here in the West that can see clearly…
This is another superbly insightful article, NO1.
The writing is masterful and a pleasurable experience to read.
Conclusions are irrefutably well supported.
Most of all, the myth of non-replaceable West technology is fading.Russians, Iranians, etc. all of them are discovering that they can.It is not like before : ,, We do not like/ despise European but they are superior to us". Now it is : we can do it without them.It is more than a economical or technological shift in their mental. It is a major cultural revolution powered by their animosity to West arrogance.
I think it's more triggered by the sanctions than by our animosity/arrogance. The sanctions which are indeed a symptom of our arrogance.
The west grew decadent, and it's leadership is rotting from within.
We're going down. (just look at the many articles I've written about Europe (search Europe in my feed)
America is a bit freer, and has the ability to move faster - though this is being neutered by the judicial. But it is going the same direction.
Woe us. (and by "us", I mean us people in the west that see this, but can't do anything about it except try to warn other likeminded people)
Sanctions are a blessing in disguise, particularly for large, complex, well-developed economies, as you point out. They force the "victims" out of their comfort zone with a kick in the butt.
And now, with U.S. and EU sanction having become a common, vulgar commodity that is generously doled out, the "victims" form networks, and even assist weaker ones that would likely buckle under the weight. Case in point: Venezuela, now supported by Russia and Iran (and China?).
Yep, Western "leaders" are true blackbelt suicide masters.
Hear hear.
Maybe Chinese sanctions on REE (rare earth elements) is the kick in the but that the west needs (but I'm not going to hold my breath). [see also our previous comment thread here about that same topic: https://no01.substack.com/p/play-stupid-games-win-stupid-prices/comment/172096212]
True. I am surprised that China has now accepted to pause for 1 years the REE/REE products supply ban to the U.S. China could easily afford to keep the tap closed until the U.S. is on its knees and extract best maximum conditions from Uncle Sam.
That's not how they work. Never corner a rat (or a cat). They might attack you out of pure desperation. So always keep an escape valve.
Same principle as in all these cauldrons in Ukraine. Real war resembles financial war in many aspects.
And to create the mining for REE, that takes at least 5 years alone. Then comes production (THE most important facet actually) because "rare" earths are not really rare -- just environmental unfriendly to produce. And after production comes the integration in the supply chain into actual useful stuff like super strong magnets. All in all, that would take 1 or 2 decades. If we start NOW.
So: not going to happen with our short-sighted politicians and markets.
Plus, I'm certain that what they say, and what they do will be quite different. "unexpected delays", "internal use first", "no military nor dual use purposes". The excuses will sound all legit, but the main purpose is: only leave a trickle to go to the west. Enough to not bring online our own production chain. Not too little, not too much.
Great read