Pride comes before the fall
Israel's strategic overreach
Israel's missile defense economics don't add up. Iranian missiles cost $110,000 to $3 million each. Israeli interceptors run $50,000 (Iron Dome) to $4 million (Arrow 3), with US THAAD systems costing $12-15 million per shot. But Israel needs multiple interceptors per incoming threat, creating a 5-10x cost disadvantage. As Elijah Magnier observes, Iran's new tactic of launching small salvos every 30-60 minutes isn't about overwhelming defenses—it's psychological waterboarding, forcing continuous alerts, exhausting personnel, and bleeding the treasury one interceptor at a time.
Operation Rising Lion killed big names—IRGC commander Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri, nuclear scientists—but the strategic picture is mixed. Israel says it controls Tehran's airspace. Yet I’m seeing a lot of reports about Israel just flying drones to give that impression. Another issue is production: Iran builds simple rockets in weeks, Israel's Arrow 3 takes 12+ weeks with complex supply chains. Trump confirmed pre-war US resupply of Iron Dome, but advanced interceptors can't be rushed. Defense expert Uzi Rubin warned years ago: missile shields have limits. Those limits are showing.
Brian Berletic sees this as a US proxy war against Iran, following the 2009 Brookings paper "Which Path to Persia?"
And what for a war: 31 US refueling tankers heading (or now in) to the Middle East, the Nimitz carrier group rushing through the Singapore Strait, joining the 2 carrier groups there, and of course US intelligence enabling strikes on Iran's protected sites. Trump claims there is no involvement while warning Iran to negotiate "before there is nothing left."
Berletic argues this war serves US interests in blocking the China-Russia-Iran axis, but the window for military success is closing.
To me this looks more like a desperation play than good strategy.
The Strait of Hormuz has become an electronic warfare zone. Over 900 ships report GPS jamming from Bandar Abbas. Vessels show impossible positions—straight lines through land, zigzagging randomly. Captains have to navigate by compass. Iran won't close the strait just yet. That would trigger a war for sure. But creates enough chaos to spike insurance rates and remind everyone of their leverage. Three tankers caught fire June 17—a collision or an attack is yet unclear (but most likely a collision due to GPS interference).
==> Maximum disruption, minimum escalation.Tucker Carlson's might provide a possible off-ramp for Trump. Because in Tuckers June 13 newsletter he warned that this war could end Trumps presidency.
What if Trump is truly playing 4D/5D chess with the Deep State and then concedes to the “Tucker/MAGA crowd” that voted against any more wars.
==> Less likely I imagine, else Trump wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) have Israel hit Iran in the first place.The nuclear double standard is stark. Israel has 80-200 undeclared warheads, refuses NPT membership, blocks inspections. Iran, an NPT member under constant monitoring, faces sanctions for enrichment below weapons grade. But Israel bombs Iranian nuclear sites while maintaining its own secret arsenal. Israel's actual warheads go unmentioned in Western capitals. IAEA (Israel Atomic Energy Agency I guess) chief Grossi confirmed Israel destroyed Natanz's above-ground facility but enforcement remains one-sided.
Israel's won some very good designed battles but it is loosing because of sustainability. IDF is stuck indefinitely in Gaza (50% controlled), southern Lebanon, and Syrian territories. Not all hostages have returned. Hezbollah is rebuilding/licking its wounds/abiding its time. After the strikes, Iran announced new enrichment sites and expelled IAEA inspectors. Israel faces credit downgrades from all three agencies. Additional VAT hikes, salary freezes, and education cuts. As former intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz asked: "We fight a war of attrition that never ends. And then what?"
Iran chooses to calibrate its responses carefully. "Operation True Promise III" penetrates defenses enough to show vulnerability without triggering full US intervention. 24 Israelis killed—serious but not mass casualty. Foreign Minister Araghchi offers off-ramp: attacks stop if Israel stops. Tehran bets on strategic patience. With Chinese oil purchases and Russian diplomatic cover, Iran calculates it can outlast Israeli operations. Time, economics, and demographics favor endurance over dominance.
US power projection looks increasingly hollow. Nimitz races to Persian Gulf but what can carriers do against missiles and electronic warfare? Trumps administration is trapped between preventing Israel nuking Iran, Iran developing nukes and voter opposition to new wars. Oman talks are gone, and so is US credibility as a negotiator.
We’re again at a crossroad here. As I have this feeling already since COVID: what is the most stupid, self-defeating thing the PTB can do? That’s likely what will happen.
Just like with corona: lock everyone up, force everyone to wear masks and inject yourself with a not-proven technology. It only emboldened critical thinkers to come together, and killed off (or will kill off) the ones that weren’t thinking for themself (pray for them).
Like with Ukr war: let’s just mess around with Russia in its own backyard. What did the US do with Cuba? Same thing. Why did we (the West) expect anything else? —> Result: more people critical of official narratives [GOOD!]
And now with Israel: what is the most stupid thing they could do? Of course attack Irans nuclear facitilies.
So… The most stupid thing to do: US joins the attack for whatever reason (false flag likely — they’ll cook something up). Drops a few bunker buster bombs on Natanz (the 800m below ground facitliy — for reference Cheyenne mountain (one of the most secure US facilities) is 600m below ground). Or at least they try. Because you would have to fly B2 bombers in from Diego Garcia. Which would be painted before they reach Irans shores. So very probable they would get clipped. US joins the war officially (without Congres approval of course). Hormuz closes. The 3 carrier groups that are there gets mass-slaughtered by thousands of drones that are launched in a span of minutes. Tens of thousands of bodies never to be recovered. More drones fly to any of the bases around the middle east. More body bags.
Let’s hope I’m wrong, and maybe there is a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) here too. Let’s truly hope so.