Play stupid games, win stupid prices
The Nexperia fiasco
The Dutch government thought they’d pulled off a masterstroke. Invoke a 73-year-old wartime emergency law, seize control of Chinese-owned Nexperia, install their own CEO, and presto—strategic autonomy achieved. They grabbed the company, paraded their decisive action, and waited for applause.
Instead, they got a lesson in supply chain reality.
China’s response was elegant, brutal, and entirely predictable: export ban. Nexperia’s Chinese subsidiaries and subcontractors can no longer export chips manufactured in China. The Dutch seized the corporate shell. China kept the actual production. And now the entire European automotive industry—which depends on Nexperia’s chips—gets to experience what leverage actually looks like.
Minister for Economic Affairs Vincent Karremans is desperately trying to negotiate with China about lifting the ban. The same ban his government’s hostile takeover triggered. They’re scrambling to salvage the situation without admitting they fundamentally misunderstood how global manufacturing works in 2025.
Too late for that.
But here’s where it gets really instructive.
China didn’t just retaliate—they restructured the relationship entirely. According to new reports, if Nexperia wants to resume supplying Europe, three conditions apply: First, customers must renegotiate exclusive supply agreements, bypassing the seized Dutch headquarters entirely and establishing direct partnerships with China. Second, all transactions must be settled in RMB, opening a new path in the dollar-dominated semiconductor trade. Third, shipments to Europe will be dynamically adjusted based on domestic order demand, ensuring priority for domestic supply.
Read that again. The Netherlands seized a company. China responded by requiring RMB settlement and making European customers negotiate directly with Chinese entities while accepting they’ll get chips only after Chinese domestic demand is satisfied.
This isn’t just retaliation. This is weaponized supply chains advancing RMB internationalization while teaching Europe exactly where they sit in the global manufacturing hierarchy. The Dutch played stupid games with geopolitical theater. Europe’s automotive industry gets to win stupid prizes.
I’ve written before about how sanctions destroyed Western investment credibility and how Europe bankrupted itself implementing them. The Nexperia saga represents the logical conclusion of that trajectory—a masterclass in what happens when Western governments mistake legal control for actual power.
As I covered in my previous article on sanctions, this pattern repeats across industries. Iran developed world-class turbine technology that now competes with Siemens. Russia Russified its aviation sector with domestic engines and components. China built semiconductor capabilities despite comprehensive export controls. Every Western sanction became a forcing function for technological independence.
But Nexperia adds a crucial new dimension—it’s not just about technological independence anymore. It’s about restructuring the financial architecture of global trade. China isn’t simply building alternatives to Western products. They’re now advancing alternative payment systems for those products, systematically creating yuan demand in sectors critical to modern economies.
Consider what just happened in concrete terms. European automotive manufacturers now face a choice: accept RMB settlement for Nexperia chips, or face supply disruptions that halt production lines. That’s not a choice—it’s an ultimatum backed by production capacity the Dutch government thought they’d seized but actually never controlled.
The Nexperia episode connects directly to broader financial warfare dynamics. As I detailed in my recent analysis, China isn’t just responding to individual sanctions—they’re systematically building alternative infrastructure. The rare earth export controls announced October 9th, the RMB settlements BHP and Fortescue agreed to, the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s physical-only trading system—these aren’t isolated moves. They’re coordinated pieces in a strategic realignment that’s been fifteen years in the making.
The Dutch seized Nexperia on September 30th. Within weeks, China responded with export controls forcing RMB settlement and direct Chinese partnerships. This follows the exact playbook: restrict Western access, require alternative payment systems, prioritize domestic markets. Europe gets chips only after Chinese demand is satisfied, and only if they pay in yuan.
Now let’s think through what forcing semiconductor trade into RMB actually means. We’re not talking about commodity arbitrage or luxury goods. Semiconductors are the foundation of modern industrial economy. Automotive, telecommunications, defense, consumer electronics, industrial automation—every sector runs on chips. And China just made European access conditional on yuan settlement.
The automotive industry provides the clearest example. European car manufacturers already operate on razor-thin margins with just-in-time inventory systems. They can’t stockpile months of chip inventory. When Nexperia’s supply chain requires RMB payment, every major European automotive group needs yuan reserves. Not for speculation. Not for diversification. For basic operational continuity.
This creates several cascading effects. First, European companies must establish yuan banking relationships and currency reserves, integrating Chinese financial infrastructure into their core operations. Second, they become structurally dependent on RMB liquidity, meaning they care deeply about yuan exchange rates, Chinese monetary policy, and Shanghai banking system stability. Third, they develop institutional knowledge and comfort with yuan transactions, making future RMB deals in other sectors easier.
But the real strategic shift happens in the banking sector. When major European manufacturers need yuan for operational purposes, European banks must provide those services or lose clients. This means deeper integration with Chinese financial institutions, yuan swap lines, and Cross-Border Interbank Payment System connectivity. CIPS processed $24.47 trillion in 2024, up 43% from the previous year. Add European semiconductor supply chains, and those numbers accelerate dramatically.
The semiconductor industry is particularly strategic because it sits at the intersection of multiple critical sectors. Defense contractors need chips. Telecommunications infrastructure needs chips. Industrial automation needs chips. Medical devices need chips. By forcing RMB settlement in semiconductors, China isn’t just capturing one industry—they’re creating yuan demand across every sector that depends on chips. Which is basically the entire modern economy.
This also fundamentally changes geopolitical calculus. When European manufacturers depend on yuan liquidity for supply chain operations, European governments face uncomfortable choices. Impose financial sanctions on Chinese entities, and you potentially disrupt your own industrial base. Support dollar-exclusive systems, and you handicap your manufacturers who need yuan access. The financial architecture that made Western sanctions effective—dollar dominance and SWIFT control—becomes a liability when your industries require alternative payment systems for basic operations.
The trap works because China built a manufacturing powerhouse, established physical-only PM exchanges, controls a near-complete rare earth extraction and supply pipeline, and is now starting to demands RMB settlement one critical supply chain at a time. The infrastructure for an alternative system isn’t theoretical. It’s operational.
The sanctions boomerang isn’t coming back—it’s already embedded in Europe’s skull. The question isn’t whether it hits. It’s how many more times Western policymakers need to get smacked before they understand that leverage only works when you control what matters. The Dutch controlled a corporate entity. China controls the chips, controls the production, and now controls the currency those chips trade in.
That’s what leverage actually looks like.
This is another 5-star article, NO1.
Concise, easy to read, poignant information.
There is an overlordian design to the West's downfall.
You see it clearly in immigration and economic policies.
It's a planned event.
This is an excellent article, a razor-sharp analysis of reality.
Although I am no expert by any stretch of imagination, 1 thing I wonder about is China's hub postion. Yes, it most certainly seems to be in a comfortable, very powerful position today.
But, surely, chip manufacturing can be done and/or expanded and/or set up elsewhere too. After all, the other company in the Netherlands, ASML, has a unique, almost monopolistic technology: ASML is the sole supplier in the world of extreme ultraviolet lithography photolithography machines that are required to manufacture the most advanced chips.
Of course, thanks to U.S. pressure the Netherlands forced ASML to stop exporting to China, though China is advancing rapidly to counter that with its own technology. But my point is why would the West not be able reduce its dependence on Chinese chips in say 5 years' time?
That does not solve the situation now of China's anaconda-like stranglehold on the West's supply chain for chips. The West tickled the anaconda, which then tightened its grip.