If I had to place a bet on which country will be around 100 years from now, Iran or the USA, my money would be on Iran. Trump and his ragged caravan of grifters and murderers portend an unpleasant outcome for the USA. Evil combined with idiocy promises a short and rocky ending.
Nope, wrong. Not "all kinds" have done likewise and "been fine". The US, UK , France, Spain , Portugal, Belgium and a few others are not "fine" at all. The karma of colonialism is a bitch.
Thanks No1 for this comprehensive overview of current events.
I think it's clear where the conflict is headed – following the pattern: those who lie the most, conceal information, and contradict themselves the most are the ones who are losing.
For me, and presumably many others here, the crucial question is therefore what the future holds (for oneself, but also for society). To shed light on this, I'd like to attach the message I just wrote to you to this post – and then I won't bother you any further…
Hello No1.
I stumbled across a financial analysis of the consequences of the Iran conflict.
Based on my experience (10 years in geopolitics, metals, insights… and all the rest), the analysis sounds plausible and is very well-documented.
I only post in forums like yours maybe once every two years and would describe myself as a calm, drama-averse analyst.
I had to send myself a cease and desist order to not read anymore of this cubefarm's substacks. I say cubefarm, because no single human could generate this level of (generally) factual data and concomitant analysis. Positions are being built. Some of them are for our attention.
Shanaka is AI generated. The amount he puts out at Twitter is enormous. I still follow that account though because there is a LOT of good information. Don't know where he gets it from. And I'm sure there's a human behind it because the takes are relatively novel. But his analysis are way too long for a human to read... Or write for that matter...
Usually hard pass, as I don't participate in death cults, I skimmed for a minute & noticed it was insanely verbose ~ Good to know that AI is still an obnoxious, repellent maelstrom of noisome.
(1) I'm afraid to announce that if USrael are bombing civilian targets that Plan B is apparently bombing Iran's gen pop into submission via fear, logistical disruption of vital resources & destruction of government/CULTural centers until whoever is still "surviving" is ready to renounce *all* Shia adherence & embrace Western secular "democracy".
This change of plan indicates the utter failure of Plan A (decapitate Iran's theocracy & obliterate .MIL efficacy), which *clearly* did not include that IRGC would focus on hammering GCC countries with munitions.
(I didn't have USrael mass *civilian* casualty events as probable, but unless *something* changes I predict we shall see that escalation, now.)
(2) Never considered building *deep* underground missile bases in the desert, though it makes perfect sense based on sniper *shoot & relocate* tactics.
With over 20 years & Russian/CCP .MIL assistance the IRGC could build a massive complex of missile launch sites connected to storage that would be a whack-a-mole situation almost impossible to target/destroy from the air, only fully decommissioned with boots on the ground, which is a bridge-to-far for USrael.
It also makes Plan (B) horribly more of a mission creep nightmare probability.
(3) With Russian/CCP .MIL supplies continuing to flow to the IRGC, via aircraft, it's only a matter of time until USrael create an "international" incident where RU/CCP will have to choose to withdraw or escalate.
Not looking forward to that scenario becoming reality 😐
Unfortunately, given the capriciousness of current USrael neocon/neolibs + associated toadies, lackeys, sycophants & blood lust war mongers, this "conflict" will possibly make the RU/Ukraine conflict look like a picnic.
Clearly, USrael has cut-the-cord to public opinion/interests, probably an outgrowth of the Palestinian nightmare, due to hardening of neocon/neolib hearts after denial of the genocidal reality inflicted on Gaza with their tacit approval.
Anyone still playing the equity/bond/commodity markets has a *lot* more nerve than I ~ Where we're going we (probably) won't need markets.
This is a pretty incredible collection, nice research! As is (too often these days) said, "You can't make this stuff up!" I often wonder: are our leaders this stupid? Or: Do our leaders think WE'RE this stupid?
BTW, fifteen bucks and change per hour for that Dover AFB job sounds WAY too low. And "on call" no less...
The surest sign... the bare-faced giveaway that things aren't going as hoped for the US and Israel, is that the entire western MSM is regurgitating non-information about what's going on. That never happens when everything's going well, because the hopeful victors are quick to exploit any small gain. But when there's nothing good to report you're left to torpedo a ship for a headline.
It seems possible that the entire US-Israeli strategy was to decapitate the Iranian leadership and then hope that the government fell. There is no Plan B to that threadbare scheme, because neither Israel nor the US are going to invade Iran. All there is now is continued bombing and air strikes, which is a very unreliable way to bring an enemy to heel. In Vietnam, the USA dropped more total ordinance than was dropped by both sides combined in World War Two. Still, Vietnam came out victorious. Iran knows this and will play the long game, just as Vietnam did before them.
Regarding "Hegseth was practically bouncing: “First torpedo sinking since World War II!” Like a kid unlocking an achievement in a video game."
.
This war and every other in human history is immature, yet onward we decimate each other for some purpose that escapes me. In any case, regarding the gravity of this new skirmish (see what I did there?), sometimes I must smirk and find levity, 1,001 things to do whilst psychopaths run amok and screw everything up: So, without further ado ....
Banksy, agh? The man who said that you could use his artwork only for your personal advancement and under no circumstances for re-sell purposes on Amazon or eBay. The former campus got hit. Never underestimate the power of Banksy.
Wonderful No.1 - couldn't stop laughing at the truth disappearing during wartime. Quoting and linking in my article this Saturday. Couldn't have my reading missing all this whilst waiting for the Iranian airforce to come out and play. :-)
I understand that. But as a mother the concept of “ you have to look after yourself first or you won’t be able to look after others”, is something women preach to each other.
Just like the airline “ put your own mask on before helping others”.
Please get more sleep- we can wait a little longer while you look after yourself first🥰.
Yeah, it is starting to affect me. I am thinking to shift this report in time. Not the end of the ME day, but the start of the next so it aligns better with my sleeping patterns. Else I'm going to crash and burn. Doesn't do anyone any good.
Weaned on the VN War I remember, in 1970, trying to sleep but had, eyes wide open dreams, of parachuting Kissinger and Nixon into Hanoi. Had to settle for the reality of Bomb-Bomb-Iran-John-McCain acting as last minute stand in.
Fabulous report No1. Your incredulity at the stupidity of what the US and Israel have done comes through clearly. If I may speak as an old hand at watching America fight wars, there is much more to come.
It sounds fantastical for Iran to say that they commandeered and recovered an intact US drone. But it's completely plausible. Iran did this once before many years ago in a well-publicized incident.
The sight of those missiles erupting from bare sand in the desert is quite something. I'd never seen that before. But it totally makes sense for Iran to do it that way. Rather than building enormous, hardened silos that the enemy can easily find, you just bury the launcher under desert sand. Even if the enemy has a sense of where the launchers are, nothing but a direct hit will do anything, as the sand will easily absorb the impact of nearby bombs and missiles.
The opinion of some pretty savvy observers is that Iran isn't scrambling to patch together some way to survive the onslaught. Rather, they've seen it coming for many years, and have prepared accordingly. They fully expected decapitation strikes against the government. They built their command and control structure first and foremost for resilience. There are many layers to it, extending not just in the military dimension but socially and politically as well. Regional commanders were given prior autonomy to act against the aggressors, if the top level of the command structure was taken out. They continue with the plan, each commander in his own region, maintaining order and supporting the people. And launching missiles at the enemy.
The US and Israel are militarily dominant in this conflict. Iran understands that only by extending them, by denying them a swift victory, can it hope to survive. So Iran has buttressed itself against rapid collapse. They know that air strikes alone cannot bring the nation down. Without a black swan event, something like the Iranian people suddenly rising up as one and capitulating to the enemy, Iran will likely survive. Bloodied, but still defiant. What will not survive is the US empire's imperial order. We are witnessing the dying throes of that.
""It sounds fantastical for Iran to say that they commandeered and recovered an intact US drone."" > They did so before in 2011. That's where their Shaheds come from if I recall correctly.
I've read maybe 15 articles today and this is the first that pulls together what's happening on the ground right now. The useless MSM is just quoting Trump and Hegseth in their headlines.
Smh those damn Russian pranksters. Get you every time lol. They really are amazing.
Great sitrep again sir!
A lot of people seem to assume that Trump can just cut and run. It’s not hard to imagine him touring around boasting about all the things he blew up.
But I don’t think so and here’s why. As long as Iran can fire ballistic missiles they will continue to knock the shit out of the targets they are currently engaging and then some. This explains why the US desperately wants to knock the launchers out.
But can they? And more importantly I would think either Russia and/or China would be up to re-supplying them. I would think Russia would be chomping at the bit to bring them more.
""they will continue to knock the shit out..."" > True, but the same goes the other way around too... They are getting hit as well. And never forget that USrael seems to be targeting at least half civilian targets, whereas Iran is targeting mainly military ones.
No1 has by far the very best Iran war diary in the town. This guy is no joke. Loved the video of the missiles launching from nowhere in the desert and the multimillion dollar ordnances vs aircraft dummies. If all this holds, Iran is set up to take over the game and write a whole new chapter in the history of warfare. On Qatar shutting off its LNG production, this is precisely the wild card Putin was holding since the beginning of the Ukraine war. As I see it, he's gonna squeeze EU/NATO's balls. And so bad so as to extract any terms it pleases to Make Ukraine Russia Again. What are your thoughts on that No1? Meanwhile China has not break radio silence. Yet. Have a good day
Thanks, glad the diary's been useful - trying to keep up with the pace of it all is genuinely exhausting but someone has to.
On the Qatar LNG angle - you're absolutely right, and I think most Western analysts are still sleep-walking through the implications. Putin didn't need to fire a single shell into a European gas pipeline. He just had to wait. Qatar shutting the tap - voluntarily or otherwise - does more damage to EU energy security than two winters of Gazprom games ever did. The squeeze is real, and Brussels knows it. Whether they'll *admit* it is another question entirely.
China's silence is the most interesting signal of all. "never interrupt an enemy making a mistake". And right now the US is making several, simultaneously, in the same theatre. Why would Beijing say a word? Every hour of American overextension is an hour China doesn't have to spend on anything.
If the drone/decoy doctrine holds in the Gulf under ***real*** pressure, we're not just looking at a regional power shift. We're looking at a fundamental repricing of what air superiority actually costs.
If I had to place a bet on which country will be around 100 years from now, Iran or the USA, my money would be on Iran. Trump and his ragged caravan of grifters and murderers portend an unpleasant outcome for the USA. Evil combined with idiocy promises a short and rocky ending.
This projection was true before Trump entered politics. It will remain true when he has left. Look deeper.
It was true from the moment they set foot on that land and started the genocide of the natives.
No. All kinds of people around the world have done likewise and been fine.
Stop with the ooga booga theories of politics and think.
Nope, wrong. Not "all kinds" have done likewise and "been fine". The US, UK , France, Spain , Portugal, Belgium and a few others are not "fine" at all. The karma of colonialism is a bitch.
Try harder. Politics IS ooga booga.
Thanks No1 for this comprehensive overview of current events.
I think it's clear where the conflict is headed – following the pattern: those who lie the most, conceal information, and contradict themselves the most are the ones who are losing.
For me, and presumably many others here, the crucial question is therefore what the future holds (for oneself, but also for society). To shed light on this, I'd like to attach the message I just wrote to you to this post – and then I won't bother you any further…
Hello No1.
I stumbled across a financial analysis of the consequences of the Iran conflict.
Based on my experience (10 years in geopolitics, metals, insights… and all the rest), the analysis sounds plausible and is very well-documented.
I only post in forums like yours maybe once every two years and would describe myself as a calm, drama-averse analyst.
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
The analysis is so explosive that, after careful consideration, I want to share it with you.
I urge you to read this analysis.
I realize you probably receive at least 20 such messages a day. You don't have time for half of them, and the other half come from bots or cranks.
Please make an exception here – please read this analysis.
P.S. I would appreciate your feedback – ideally in the form of a post about this analysis in your subtrack.
Personally, I really appreciate the information and especially the way you present it.
THANK YOU for that.
Long but good analysis.
Thank you Anubis - it fits with my own analysis. I have linked your SS in my article this Saturday. I will read in detail when I have the time.
I had to send myself a cease and desist order to not read anymore of this cubefarm's substacks. I say cubefarm, because no single human could generate this level of (generally) factual data and concomitant analysis. Positions are being built. Some of them are for our attention.
Shanaka is AI generated. The amount he puts out at Twitter is enormous. I still follow that account though because there is a LOT of good information. Don't know where he gets it from. And I'm sure there's a human behind it because the takes are relatively novel. But his analysis are way too long for a human to read... Or write for that matter...
Thanks No1 for the *just the fact ma'am* update 👍
"Shanaka is AI generated."
Usually hard pass, as I don't participate in death cults, I skimmed for a minute & noticed it was insanely verbose ~ Good to know that AI is still an obnoxious, repellent maelstrom of noisome.
(1) I'm afraid to announce that if USrael are bombing civilian targets that Plan B is apparently bombing Iran's gen pop into submission via fear, logistical disruption of vital resources & destruction of government/CULTural centers until whoever is still "surviving" is ready to renounce *all* Shia adherence & embrace Western secular "democracy".
This change of plan indicates the utter failure of Plan A (decapitate Iran's theocracy & obliterate .MIL efficacy), which *clearly* did not include that IRGC would focus on hammering GCC countries with munitions.
(I didn't have USrael mass *civilian* casualty events as probable, but unless *something* changes I predict we shall see that escalation, now.)
(2) Never considered building *deep* underground missile bases in the desert, though it makes perfect sense based on sniper *shoot & relocate* tactics.
With over 20 years & Russian/CCP .MIL assistance the IRGC could build a massive complex of missile launch sites connected to storage that would be a whack-a-mole situation almost impossible to target/destroy from the air, only fully decommissioned with boots on the ground, which is a bridge-to-far for USrael.
It also makes Plan (B) horribly more of a mission creep nightmare probability.
(3) With Russian/CCP .MIL supplies continuing to flow to the IRGC, via aircraft, it's only a matter of time until USrael create an "international" incident where RU/CCP will have to choose to withdraw or escalate.
Not looking forward to that scenario becoming reality 😐
Unfortunately, given the capriciousness of current USrael neocon/neolibs + associated toadies, lackeys, sycophants & blood lust war mongers, this "conflict" will possibly make the RU/Ukraine conflict look like a picnic.
Clearly, USrael has cut-the-cord to public opinion/interests, probably an outgrowth of the Palestinian nightmare, due to hardening of neocon/neolib hearts after denial of the genocidal reality inflicted on Gaza with their tacit approval.
Anyone still playing the equity/bond/commodity markets has a *lot* more nerve than I ~ Where we're going we (probably) won't need markets.
Those "playing the markets" have as much blood on their hands as the IDF and the US military.
This is a pretty incredible collection, nice research! As is (too often these days) said, "You can't make this stuff up!" I often wonder: are our leaders this stupid? Or: Do our leaders think WE'RE this stupid?
BTW, fifteen bucks and change per hour for that Dover AFB job sounds WAY too low. And "on call" no less...
The surest sign... the bare-faced giveaway that things aren't going as hoped for the US and Israel, is that the entire western MSM is regurgitating non-information about what's going on. That never happens when everything's going well, because the hopeful victors are quick to exploit any small gain. But when there's nothing good to report you're left to torpedo a ship for a headline.
It seems possible that the entire US-Israeli strategy was to decapitate the Iranian leadership and then hope that the government fell. There is no Plan B to that threadbare scheme, because neither Israel nor the US are going to invade Iran. All there is now is continued bombing and air strikes, which is a very unreliable way to bring an enemy to heel. In Vietnam, the USA dropped more total ordinance than was dropped by both sides combined in World War Two. Still, Vietnam came out victorious. Iran knows this and will play the long game, just as Vietnam did before them.
""to decapitate the Iranian leadership and then hope that the government fell""
Hope is not a strategy.
It seems it is in this case.
I was on the fence Sunday if you recall, now the more we advance, the more i feel like the US have no plan, and Iran had one.
The best way to act when you step into a hornets nest is to run away.
YMMV
Regarding "Hegseth was practically bouncing: “First torpedo sinking since World War II!” Like a kid unlocking an achievement in a video game."
.
This war and every other in human history is immature, yet onward we decimate each other for some purpose that escapes me. In any case, regarding the gravity of this new skirmish (see what I did there?), sometimes I must smirk and find levity, 1,001 things to do whilst psychopaths run amok and screw everything up: So, without further ado ....
...
...
Pete: Leerrrrrrooooooyyyyyyyyyyy Hegseth!
Raid Lead: Damn it Pete; you're stupid.
Pete: At least I got chicken.
It's starting to sound like he should have remained on 'Fox & Friends!'
Also he is wrong, Falklands war involved at least 1 sinking by torpedo.
At this rate by next week we will almost have spent as much as the Somalian daycare fraud in Minnesota.
Great counterpoint to what we are being fed, it's why I read SubStack
xcancel.com/Globalstats11/status/2027651178608386120
countries bombed since 1945
Yes, I quoted 285 since WW2 long ago: https://www.infoplease.com/history/us/major-military-operations-since-world-war-ii
Banksy, agh? The man who said that you could use his artwork only for your personal advancement and under no circumstances for re-sell purposes on Amazon or eBay. The former campus got hit. Never underestimate the power of Banksy.
Wonderful No.1 - couldn't stop laughing at the truth disappearing during wartime. Quoting and linking in my article this Saturday. Couldn't have my reading missing all this whilst waiting for the Iranian airforce to come out and play. :-)
Thank you, please tell me you sleep at some point.
I slept 4.5h today... Too little, even for me.
I understand that. But as a mother the concept of “ you have to look after yourself first or you won’t be able to look after others”, is something women preach to each other.
Just like the airline “ put your own mask on before helping others”.
Please get more sleep- we can wait a little longer while you look after yourself first🥰.
Yeah, it is starting to affect me. I am thinking to shift this report in time. Not the end of the ME day, but the start of the next so it aligns better with my sleeping patterns. Else I'm going to crash and burn. Doesn't do anyone any good.
Can recommend gummies as aid to sleep if dispensaries are available in your neck of the woods. At 74 y/o...I'd be lost without them.
The problem is not the ability to sleep. The problem is that too much is going on to sleep 😉
Weaned on the VN War I remember, in 1970, trying to sleep but had, eyes wide open dreams, of parachuting Kissinger and Nixon into Hanoi. Had to settle for the reality of Bomb-Bomb-Iran-John-McCain acting as last minute stand in.
🤣
I want to thank the USofTerrorism & Israel LLC for once again engaging in FUCKING the World Economy & Finances.
I guess that these two gangs of terrorists aren't able to do anything else... So FUCK them both!
Fabulous report No1. Your incredulity at the stupidity of what the US and Israel have done comes through clearly. If I may speak as an old hand at watching America fight wars, there is much more to come.
It sounds fantastical for Iran to say that they commandeered and recovered an intact US drone. But it's completely plausible. Iran did this once before many years ago in a well-publicized incident.
The sight of those missiles erupting from bare sand in the desert is quite something. I'd never seen that before. But it totally makes sense for Iran to do it that way. Rather than building enormous, hardened silos that the enemy can easily find, you just bury the launcher under desert sand. Even if the enemy has a sense of where the launchers are, nothing but a direct hit will do anything, as the sand will easily absorb the impact of nearby bombs and missiles.
The opinion of some pretty savvy observers is that Iran isn't scrambling to patch together some way to survive the onslaught. Rather, they've seen it coming for many years, and have prepared accordingly. They fully expected decapitation strikes against the government. They built their command and control structure first and foremost for resilience. There are many layers to it, extending not just in the military dimension but socially and politically as well. Regional commanders were given prior autonomy to act against the aggressors, if the top level of the command structure was taken out. They continue with the plan, each commander in his own region, maintaining order and supporting the people. And launching missiles at the enemy.
The US and Israel are militarily dominant in this conflict. Iran understands that only by extending them, by denying them a swift victory, can it hope to survive. So Iran has buttressed itself against rapid collapse. They know that air strikes alone cannot bring the nation down. Without a black swan event, something like the Iranian people suddenly rising up as one and capitulating to the enemy, Iran will likely survive. Bloodied, but still defiant. What will not survive is the US empire's imperial order. We are witnessing the dying throes of that.
""It sounds fantastical for Iran to say that they commandeered and recovered an intact US drone."" > They did so before in 2011. That's where their Shaheds come from if I recall correctly.
I've read maybe 15 articles today and this is the first that pulls together what's happening on the ground right now. The useless MSM is just quoting Trump and Hegseth in their headlines.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
😁
Smh those damn Russian pranksters. Get you every time lol. They really are amazing.
Great sitrep again sir!
A lot of people seem to assume that Trump can just cut and run. It’s not hard to imagine him touring around boasting about all the things he blew up.
But I don’t think so and here’s why. As long as Iran can fire ballistic missiles they will continue to knock the shit out of the targets they are currently engaging and then some. This explains why the US desperately wants to knock the launchers out.
But can they? And more importantly I would think either Russia and/or China would be up to re-supplying them. I would think Russia would be chomping at the bit to bring them more.
""they will continue to knock the shit out..."" > True, but the same goes the other way around too... They are getting hit as well. And never forget that USrael seems to be targeting at least half civilian targets, whereas Iran is targeting mainly military ones.
No1 has by far the very best Iran war diary in the town. This guy is no joke. Loved the video of the missiles launching from nowhere in the desert and the multimillion dollar ordnances vs aircraft dummies. If all this holds, Iran is set up to take over the game and write a whole new chapter in the history of warfare. On Qatar shutting off its LNG production, this is precisely the wild card Putin was holding since the beginning of the Ukraine war. As I see it, he's gonna squeeze EU/NATO's balls. And so bad so as to extract any terms it pleases to Make Ukraine Russia Again. What are your thoughts on that No1? Meanwhile China has not break radio silence. Yet. Have a good day
Thanks, glad the diary's been useful - trying to keep up with the pace of it all is genuinely exhausting but someone has to.
On the Qatar LNG angle - you're absolutely right, and I think most Western analysts are still sleep-walking through the implications. Putin didn't need to fire a single shell into a European gas pipeline. He just had to wait. Qatar shutting the tap - voluntarily or otherwise - does more damage to EU energy security than two winters of Gazprom games ever did. The squeeze is real, and Brussels knows it. Whether they'll *admit* it is another question entirely.
China's silence is the most interesting signal of all. "never interrupt an enemy making a mistake". And right now the US is making several, simultaneously, in the same theatre. Why would Beijing say a word? Every hour of American overextension is an hour China doesn't have to spend on anything.
If the drone/decoy doctrine holds in the Gulf under ***real*** pressure, we're not just looking at a regional power shift. We're looking at a fundamental repricing of what air superiority actually costs.