Thank you. It seems only very few know what's in the making. Most people are absolutely clueless. Your summary is best in class. I really do appreciate your efforts.
As a red-pilled buyer since 2008 (thanks to Peter Schiff on CNBC) and student of Mises; this is so well done it should be mandatory reading in schools or before your kids open their first bank account! It's more than just a summary of recent news, it is a record of critical financial history. Excellent work, sir!
Ha!!! True! Even I a gold silver nut job since 2008 has been telling everyone since then and nobody in my family or friends not one took my advice. But even I know there will be time to switch up my game, but you cannot hold crude oil or stocks like one can gold and silver! The greatest of all.
There will be a time when we have to switch! Don't be married to your stack. I think I will always keep a bit aside, but at a certain point I will reduce it (when I see it's really in a bull market, I will sell, and buy maybe stocks at the time. We'll see.)
Fortune 500 IT infrastructure worker here. Guess what. If you have servers somewhere doing very important processing, you will replicate these servers in another location and all data will be synchronized between these two separate locations. You can then fail over from one set of servers in one city to another, duplicate, set of servers in another city in milliseconds, with no lost transactions. We did this in a little company with market cap of 25 billion starting about 5 years ago. Financial services will certainly have this level of redundancy at a minimum in 2025. Cooling failed, causing more than a few minutes of downtime? Sure, this is beliveable at a small-to-mid company. This is literally incredible at a Fortune 500 company, or any mid-to-large financial services company. If someone didn't fire their CIO, this was a bullshit excuse.
💯%! And if they didn't do monthly DRP exercises, their entire IT team should be fired. They handle one of the worlds most important future markets. We do this quarterly, and we're just a really small player.
Hanlon's Razer: "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence". But in this case, I think it's the former rather than the latter.
A flight from NY -> Singapore takes around 19h. I was first thinking they (JPM) pulled their harddrives and moved everything to S, but the timing doesn't fit (only 10ish hours down). ["never underestimate the bandwidth of a truck full of tapes"]
Same situtation with me. Nobody listened or even had any curiosity. When (if?) they do come back and ask for my advice, I will tell them the best investment they can make is in themselves and their knowledge. I will avoid any recommendation of a specific investment. I know that will frustrate them because the great majority of people just want to make money without putting in any effort to understand what they are doing.
Quite the story you've uncovered! Excellent work digging into this. Always satisfying when price patterns set up first and the fundamental reason reveals itself later. The chart doesn't lie—it just doesn't always explain itself immediately.
Great article - Silver has been interesting for a long time, not just because of its properties but because of all the financial moves made around it. I am not sure what this would do to the broader economy, but if it is China it seems like a way to hit us back for our rhetoric and actions around Taiwan.
I have my doubts. China likes to work in the shadows, accumulating when the price is cheap. This is completely opposite of their operandus. If things get resolved over the weekend you might be right: they're just scaring us… but even then. This move is just too visible. Not subtle enough.
Even Russia is more subtle with their retaliations. Like kicking France out of uranium rich Niger, or a tanker that “runs aground” in the middle of the sea and stuff like that.
As Super Monday nears, I ponder the broader implications and ripple effects which may accompany a possible default on silver delivery in other markets. We're about to find out.
Well, I'll settle for little presents under the Christmas tree. But a nice rally in silver would be nice too 😎. But watch out, what I'm expecting is a nice rally, and then a dump into the New Year. Just a gut-feeling at the moment because we've entered true price discovery mode now (unless it's slammed back down under 54.
Keep an eye on this space where I'll detail my journey (and gut feelings) 😎.
The "tell" on this was when someone verified that all other customers of that particular Cyrus data center were operating normally and without interruption.
I've maintained for years that silver is the "lynchpin" of Western financial systems. Looks like that pin has been pulled.
I really believe it is a global awakening of demand for physical. Everyone with any power and influence knows about the pallets of hundred dollar bills left in Afghanistan, the bank bailouts, the covid bailouts, the government subsidizing of NGO's each $100+million, Ukraine human and cash dumpster fire, treasury issuance and overall debt levels.... the gig is up. I have been telling people for years to get ready but nobody listens they just go back to the show.
I've been advising my dearest and nearest to get into gold (and last 2y) into silver as well... Did they do that? Nope. Their loss, I warned them.
And probably when we'll be near a (temporary) top, they will come to me and ask if they should enter... And I will say no, wait, go into <...> whatever is low at that time. And they won't listen. Again.
As with rare earth elements, our adversaries have been well aware of these vulnerabilities for some time. You could say that they've been quietly undermining Comex & the LBMA for years and -- given recently escalating global rhetoric -- decided the time was right.
Alternatively, it could simply be that someone intelligently observed that the cupboard is bare and decided if there's going to be a panic they should panic first. Nothing these days runs without silver.
p.s.: I use "adversaries" above because IMHO the clowns in charge treat them as such.
The who (I know you're implying China here) is actually less important than the why.
Because timing is everything in markets. And in warfare.
Someone - doesn't matter who - looked at the board and decided Nov 2025 was the moment to make this move. Not September. Not October. Not next month. Now.
That decision reveals something about what they know. About what's coming. About why waiting was suddenly more dangerous than acting.
Maybe they saw the inventory numbers we're all watching. Maybe they know something about dollar liquidity we don't. Maybe there's a geopolitical trigger nobody's talking about yet.
But they chose now. And that choice - that timing - tells us we're closer to something breaking than even the worst-case scenarios suggested.
The "who" just tells us one player's identity. The "why now" tells us the state of the entire game.
I’m certainly not discounting the “why now” but knowing the player tells us the game. I’m also not discounting Russia as a player since they’re in the endgame of the SMO and monumental turmoil in Western banking could quickly become a far greater issue than Ukraine.
The current annual silver deficit is more like 400+ million ounces rather than the 200 million reported by the Silver Institute. It’s simple math. Bix Weir has done the work and explains how badly the Silver Institute has undercounted solar silver demand from China and India. Also Bix clearly shows the criminal Silver Institute has fraudulently changed many past years numbers to create the perception of slower year over year demand growth. On top of that Silver Institute and Metals Focus doesn’t include military uses. A tomahawk missile needs 500 oz each. Chem trails are created used silver. This year the govt finally acknowledged they are spraying the skies. .
Great article! If someone took that size long position wouldn't it have to show up somewhere in the data for comex or lbma? Twitter is abuzz that paul tudor jones went long 2B in futures wednesday afternoon whuch would equate to 40m oz as opposed to the rumored 400m oz which has to stickout somewhere more obvious publicly. Tough to envision someone like him doing that without tacit approval of administration and bullion banks cleaning up their books first. Plus silver was listed as a strategic metal by the US just a few weeks ago so the timing is interesting. Could it be the US initiating the gold/silver revaluation that likely needs to happen as part of the great reset?
You're right that the math matters. If PTJ went long $2B, that's around 40M oz at $50/oz, not the rumored 400M oz. But could someone accumulate 400M oz without it being obvious? Actually yes.
COMEX trades around 102,000 contracts daily - roughly 510 million oz changing hands every day. If you bought 5M oz per day, that's only 1,000 contracts, about 1% of daily volume. Not enough to move markets or stand out. Spread that over 80 trading days and different strike prices (ie: options on futures - they're in a different part of the COT data) and you're at 400M oz total.
The aggregate "managed money long" category in COT reports would gradually increase, but you wouldn't see it attributed to one player. It would just look like steady institutional positioning. So yeah, stealthy accumulation of even a massive position is absolutely possible - not theoretical (obviously), actually doable.
But coordinated "great reset" orchestration? I doubt it. This looks more like scrambling. If bullion banks were cleaning up their books first with tacit approval, we wouldn't be seeing the physical market stress we're seeing. The spiking lease rates, the emergency shipments, the inventory draws - that's panic, not planning.
Could there be tacit approval for someone to go long? Maybe. But I think you're giving the system too much credit. What this looks like is multiple players realizing simultaneously that there's a supply problem and positioning accordingly. Some are just bigger and faster than others.
Best summary on what’s happening in the silver market I’ve seen. Your work is top tier. Appreciate it!
Nice breakdown, brother!
Thank you. It seems only very few know what's in the making. Most people are absolutely clueless. Your summary is best in class. I really do appreciate your efforts.
As a red-pilled buyer since 2008 (thanks to Peter Schiff on CNBC) and student of Mises; this is so well done it should be mandatory reading in schools or before your kids open their first bank account! It's more than just a summary of recent news, it is a record of critical financial history. Excellent work, sir!
Ha!!! True! Even I a gold silver nut job since 2008 has been telling everyone since then and nobody in my family or friends not one took my advice. But even I know there will be time to switch up my game, but you cannot hold crude oil or stocks like one can gold and silver! The greatest of all.
There will be a time when we have to switch! Don't be married to your stack. I think I will always keep a bit aside, but at a certain point I will reduce it (when I see it's really in a bull market, I will sell, and buy maybe stocks at the time. We'll see.)
Fortune 500 IT infrastructure worker here. Guess what. If you have servers somewhere doing very important processing, you will replicate these servers in another location and all data will be synchronized between these two separate locations. You can then fail over from one set of servers in one city to another, duplicate, set of servers in another city in milliseconds, with no lost transactions. We did this in a little company with market cap of 25 billion starting about 5 years ago. Financial services will certainly have this level of redundancy at a minimum in 2025. Cooling failed, causing more than a few minutes of downtime? Sure, this is beliveable at a small-to-mid company. This is literally incredible at a Fortune 500 company, or any mid-to-large financial services company. If someone didn't fire their CIO, this was a bullshit excuse.
💯%! And if they didn't do monthly DRP exercises, their entire IT team should be fired. They handle one of the worlds most important future markets. We do this quarterly, and we're just a really small player.
Hanlon's Razer: "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence". But in this case, I think it's the former rather than the latter.
A flight from NY -> Singapore takes around 19h. I was first thinking they (JPM) pulled their harddrives and moved everything to S, but the timing doesn't fit (only 10ish hours down). ["never underestimate the bandwidth of a truck full of tapes"]
Don't private jets fly faster?
The fastest plane EVER : North American X-15 (about 4,520 mph)
For sustained flight : SR-71 (around 2,200 mph)
NY to Singapore is roughly 9,500 miles:
X-15 at max speed: ~2 hours (theoretical - it couldn't sustain that speed or carry fuel for the distance)
SR-71 at cruise: ~4.3 hours
Commercial jet (Boeing 777/787 - 570mph): ~18-19 hours actual
Private jet (Gulfstream G650 - 530mph, smaller: 450mph): ~19-20 hours
Same situtation with me. Nobody listened or even had any curiosity. When (if?) they do come back and ask for my advice, I will tell them the best investment they can make is in themselves and their knowledge. I will avoid any recommendation of a specific investment. I know that will frustrate them because the great majority of people just want to make money without putting in any effort to understand what they are doing.
Quite the story you've uncovered! Excellent work digging into this. Always satisfying when price patterns set up first and the fundamental reason reveals itself later. The chart doesn't lie—it just doesn't always explain itself immediately.
Brother you came in hot with that one. I’m in that physical world and what a circus. Keep up the great work!
Excellent analysis, thank you!
Great article - Silver has been interesting for a long time, not just because of its properties but because of all the financial moves made around it. I am not sure what this would do to the broader economy, but if it is China it seems like a way to hit us back for our rhetoric and actions around Taiwan.
I have my doubts. China likes to work in the shadows, accumulating when the price is cheap. This is completely opposite of their operandus. If things get resolved over the weekend you might be right: they're just scaring us… but even then. This move is just too visible. Not subtle enough.
Even Russia is more subtle with their retaliations. Like kicking France out of uranium rich Niger, or a tanker that “runs aground” in the middle of the sea and stuff like that.
This kind of move feels different.
As Super Monday nears, I ponder the broader implications and ripple effects which may accompany a possible default on silver delivery in other markets. We're about to find out.
Great summary and breakdown! Will this be the December to Remember!
Well, I'll settle for little presents under the Christmas tree. But a nice rally in silver would be nice too 😎. But watch out, what I'm expecting is a nice rally, and then a dump into the New Year. Just a gut-feeling at the moment because we've entered true price discovery mode now (unless it's slammed back down under 54.
Keep an eye on this space where I'll detail my journey (and gut feelings) 😎.
Excellent work!
The "tell" on this was when someone verified that all other customers of that particular Cyrus data center were operating normally and without interruption.
I've maintained for years that silver is the "lynchpin" of Western financial systems. Looks like that pin has been pulled.
Yup, that's what I added just now in the gallery as I didn't work that into the article.
The bigger question to me is : WHY NOW?
What changed that they pull the pin?
I really believe it is a global awakening of demand for physical. Everyone with any power and influence knows about the pallets of hundred dollar bills left in Afghanistan, the bank bailouts, the covid bailouts, the government subsidizing of NGO's each $100+million, Ukraine human and cash dumpster fire, treasury issuance and overall debt levels.... the gig is up. I have been telling people for years to get ready but nobody listens they just go back to the show.
Amen to that brother!
I've been advising my dearest and nearest to get into gold (and last 2y) into silver as well... Did they do that? Nope. Their loss, I warned them.
And probably when we'll be near a (temporary) top, they will come to me and ask if they should enter... And I will say no, wait, go into <...> whatever is low at that time. And they won't listen. Again.
The better question is "who" pulled the pin.
As with rare earth elements, our adversaries have been well aware of these vulnerabilities for some time. You could say that they've been quietly undermining Comex & the LBMA for years and -- given recently escalating global rhetoric -- decided the time was right.
Alternatively, it could simply be that someone intelligently observed that the cupboard is bare and decided if there's going to be a panic they should panic first. Nothing these days runs without silver.
p.s.: I use "adversaries" above because IMHO the clowns in charge treat them as such.
The who (I know you're implying China here) is actually less important than the why.
Because timing is everything in markets. And in warfare.
Someone - doesn't matter who - looked at the board and decided Nov 2025 was the moment to make this move. Not September. Not October. Not next month. Now.
That decision reveals something about what they know. About what's coming. About why waiting was suddenly more dangerous than acting.
Maybe they saw the inventory numbers we're all watching. Maybe they know something about dollar liquidity we don't. Maybe there's a geopolitical trigger nobody's talking about yet.
But they chose now. And that choice - that timing - tells us we're closer to something breaking than even the worst-case scenarios suggested.
The "who" just tells us one player's identity. The "why now" tells us the state of the entire game.
I’m certainly not discounting the “why now” but knowing the player tells us the game. I’m also not discounting Russia as a player since they’re in the endgame of the SMO and monumental turmoil in Western banking could quickly become a far greater issue than Ukraine.
If it is truly Russia, the exchange can simply state “we don't deliver to our enemy”, everyone accepts that (whatever the truth is). So Russia? No.
My best guess would be India, see their recent changes to make silver collateral for loans, and their etf suspension.
As I wrote in another comment: this is too visible for china.
Second place would be Saudi Arabia or UAE or so. As their central bank changed the rules to allow to accumulate silver.
Both “why now” and “who” are crucial questions. But I'm still leaning towards the former as the more important one of the two.
Probably the truth will come out in half a year or so. These things tend to have a long shelf life to come to light…
Russia or China would run through intermediaries. As you say, we won’t know for a long while if ever.
Regardless, they kicked over a hornet’s nest of trouble for the banking system… and killer profits for us.
Fear pulled the pen.
The current annual silver deficit is more like 400+ million ounces rather than the 200 million reported by the Silver Institute. It’s simple math. Bix Weir has done the work and explains how badly the Silver Institute has undercounted solar silver demand from China and India. Also Bix clearly shows the criminal Silver Institute has fraudulently changed many past years numbers to create the perception of slower year over year demand growth. On top of that Silver Institute and Metals Focus doesn’t include military uses. A tomahawk missile needs 500 oz each. Chem trails are created used silver. This year the govt finally acknowledged they are spraying the skies. .
Great article! If someone took that size long position wouldn't it have to show up somewhere in the data for comex or lbma? Twitter is abuzz that paul tudor jones went long 2B in futures wednesday afternoon whuch would equate to 40m oz as opposed to the rumored 400m oz which has to stickout somewhere more obvious publicly. Tough to envision someone like him doing that without tacit approval of administration and bullion banks cleaning up their books first. Plus silver was listed as a strategic metal by the US just a few weeks ago so the timing is interesting. Could it be the US initiating the gold/silver revaluation that likely needs to happen as part of the great reset?
Good questions. Let's work through this.
You're right that the math matters. If PTJ went long $2B, that's around 40M oz at $50/oz, not the rumored 400M oz. But could someone accumulate 400M oz without it being obvious? Actually yes.
COMEX trades around 102,000 contracts daily - roughly 510 million oz changing hands every day. If you bought 5M oz per day, that's only 1,000 contracts, about 1% of daily volume. Not enough to move markets or stand out. Spread that over 80 trading days and different strike prices (ie: options on futures - they're in a different part of the COT data) and you're at 400M oz total.
The aggregate "managed money long" category in COT reports would gradually increase, but you wouldn't see it attributed to one player. It would just look like steady institutional positioning. So yeah, stealthy accumulation of even a massive position is absolutely possible - not theoretical (obviously), actually doable.
But coordinated "great reset" orchestration? I doubt it. This looks more like scrambling. If bullion banks were cleaning up their books first with tacit approval, we wouldn't be seeing the physical market stress we're seeing. The spiking lease rates, the emergency shipments, the inventory draws - that's panic, not planning.
Could there be tacit approval for someone to go long? Maybe. But I think you're giving the system too much credit. What this looks like is multiple players realizing simultaneously that there's a supply problem and positioning accordingly. Some are just bigger and faster than others.